Well, it’s that time again! It’s time for me to post my very early Oscar predictions. I do this on a monthly basis. I always make it a point to acknowledge that, this early in the year, this is something of a pointless exercise. We’re still not far into 2018 and but, surprisingly, several excellent films have already been released. Who knows what the rest of the year will be like!
So, as always, the predictions below are a combination of instinct and random guesses. This month, I’ve kind of let my imagination run wild. And you know what? That’s the way it should be. What’s the point of trying to predict stuff if you can’t have fun?
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for April!
Right now, when it comes to predicting the Oscars, there are two big questions to consider.
First off, will Burden ever find a distributor? From the reviews in Sundance, it sounds like the type of film that could be embraced by the Academy but, if it can’t get in theaters, it’s not going to get any nominations.
Secondly, will Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman came out in 2019 or 2018? Right now, Netflix says that The Irishman will be released in 2019 but we all remember what happened with The Wolf of Wall Street.
As of now, I’m going to choose to believe that Burden will get a 2018 release date and that The Irishman will come out in 2019.
I’m also going to chose to believe that Black Panther will be the first “comic book” movie to be nominated for best picture.
Also be sure to check out my predictions for January and February!
Well, it depends on how you look at it. You can predict the Oscars at any time during the year. However, predicting them correctly is next to impossible before October. That said, I’m going to give it a shot!
Now, to be clear, this is not an attempt to predict who and what will be nominated later this month. Instead, these are my predictions for what will be nominated next year at this time! I’ll be updating my predictions every month of this year.
So, with all that in mind, here are my way too early predictions for what will be nominated in January of 2019! As of right now, these predictions are a collection of instinct and random guesses. For all we know, some of these films might not even get released in 2018. In all probability, we’ll look back at this list in December and laugh.
Best Picture
Chappaquiddick
First Man
Lizzie
Mary Queen of Scots
The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Mortal Engines
A Star is Born
Widows
Wildfire
The Women of Marwen
Best Director
Desiree Akhavon for The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Damien Chazelle for First Man
Paul Dano for Wildfire
Steve McQueen for Widows
Robert Zemeckis for The Women of Marwen
Best Actor
Steve Carell in The Women of Marwen
Jason Clarke in Chappaquiddick
Ryan Gosling in First Man
Jake Gyllenhaal in Wildfire
Joaquin Phoenx in Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot
Best Actress
Viola Davis in Widows
Chloe Grace Moretz in The Miseducation of Cameron Post
As soon as I post this, I will be caught up on sharing all of the precursor awards here on the Shattered Lens (or, at the very least, all of the precursor awards that have been announced so far. There’s several more to come). It’s not a minute to soon either! Tomorrow, the SAG Nominations will be announced. That’s one of the biggest of the precursors.
Anyway, the St. Louis Film Critics Association announce their nominations yesterday. The winners will be announced on December 17th.
The late actress Deborah Kerr was nominated for six Oscars over the course of her distinguished career. She never won and, in fact, she currently holds the record for the most Best Actress nominations without a victory.
But, at least, Deborah Kerr was nominated!
The 16 actresses below have never been nominated for an Oscar, despite some excellent and compelling performances. 10 of them still have a chance to be nominated. Sadly, 6 of them are no longer with us.
Emily Blunt
Emily Blunt came close this year. She received a SAG nomination for her performance in Girl On The Trainand some of the critics groups also honored her work. However, when the Oscar nominations were announced, Meryl Streep was nominated for a film nobody saw and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be seen. This year, she’s in good company, as neither Amy Adams nor Annette Bening picked up expected nominations either. Personally, I didn’t care much for Girl on the Train. I would have much rather seen Blunt nominated for Looper, Sicario, or even Edge of Tomorrow. Blunt will be nominated eventually.
2. Dale Dickey
You may not know Dale Dickey’s name but you’d recognize her if you saw her. She usually plays characters who are strong, outspoken, and occasionally a little scary. You never want to get on the bad side of someone played by Dale Dickey. To date, Dickey’s most award-worthy role was in Winter’s Bone. She also had a memorable (if small) role in Hell or High Water, playing the bank teller who, when asked if the men who robbed her were black, replies, “Their skin or their souls?”
3. Kirsten Dunst
As a result of Bring It On, Dunst is often thought of as being the ideal cheerleader. But, by far, her most award-worthy turn was in a film that was about as different from Bring It On as possible, Melancholia. Dunst was just twelve when she was first mentioned, for her performance in Interview With A Vampire, as a potential nominee. She was also very good in Marie Antoinette and the overlooked Crazy/Beautiful. Dunst fell off the radar for a while but she’s been quietly making a comeback.
4. Greta Gerwig
Greta Gerwig is my spirit animal. She deserved a nomination for Francis Ha and for Damsels in Distress before that. She’ll be nominated some day.
5. Rebecca Hall
Rebecca Hall received some Oscar buzz last year for Christine. I haven’t seen Christine but I think that her performances in 2008’s Vicky Christina Barcelona and especially 2010’s Please Give were criminally overlooked.
6. Katharine Isabelle
Though Isabelle is best known for Ginger Snaps, I think she deserved a nomination for last year’s underrated 88. One of the best actresses working today, Isabelle will hopefully get a role worthy of her talents.
7. Scarlett Johansson
It’s a bit of a shock that Scarlett Johansson has yet to be nominated. Her work in Lost in Translation was just as important to that film’s success as Bill Murray’s. And her performance in Under the Skin remains one of the bravest pieces of acting to ever be put on screen.
8. Ashley Judd
Unfortunately, Ashley Judd now seems to be more concerned with political activism than acting. It’s been a while since she’s appeared in a really great role (and no, the Divergent movies don’t count). Judd’s best work came in the 90s, when she gave award-worthy performances in Ruby in Paradise, Heat, and especially Normal Life.
9. Kelly MacDonald
Scottish actress Kelly MacDonald doesn’t make enough movies but it’s still hard not to feel that she’s been overlooked by the Academy. Not only did she hold her own in Trainspotting but her performance in No County For Old Menprovided that otherwise cold film with a much-needed heart.
10. Kristen Stewart
Kristen Stewart managed to survive the Twilight films and has emerged as a consistently interesting actress. Her work in Clouds of Sils Maria won her a Ceasar but was overlooked by the Academy. Before that, Stewart did excellent work in Into the Wild, Adventureland, Still Alice and Welcome to the Rileys.
Sadly, these six unnominated actresses are no longer with us:
Rita Hayworth
That the wonderful Rita Hayworth was never nominated — not even for Gilda — is nothing less than mind-blowing.
2. Myrna Loy
Myrna Loy was an actress who was such a natural that she made it look easy. Perhaps that’s why she wasn’t even nominated for The Thin Man.
3. Marilyn Monroe
Perhaps one of the most tragic actresses in the history of Hollywood, Monroe was never nominated despite giving some of the most iconic performances in film history. I would even make the case that she deserved a nomination for her tiny cameo in All About Eve.
4. Maureen O’Hara
Despite great performances in classic films like The Quiet Man and Miracle on 34th Street, Maureen O’Hara was never nominated for the Oscar she deserved.
5. Ann Savage
You may not recognize the name but if you’ve ever seen Detour, you know Ann Savage. Savage largely appeared in low-budget noirs and she always gave performances that were just as fierce as her last name.
Edie!
6. Edie Sedgwick
Sadly, Edie never got a chance to play a truly award-worthy role. Actually, since almost all of her films were underground Andy Warhol movies, it’s debatable whether she ever played a role at all. During the 1960s, as one of the top models in New York (a so-called “youthquaker”), Edie was best known for being herself. But, whenever I see Edie in an old Warhol film like Vinylor even in something like Ciao! Manhattan, I see what a great actress she could have been if she’d only been given the chance.
Here are six mini-reviews of six films that I saw in 2016!
Alice Through The Looking Glass (dir by James Bobin)
In a word — BORING!
Personally, I’ve always thought that, as a work of literature, Through The Looking Glass is actually superior to Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. That’s largely because Through The Looking Glass is a lot darker than Wonderland and the satire is a lot more fierce. You wouldn’t know that from watching the latest film adaptation, though. Alice Through The Looking Glass doesn’t really seem to care much about the source material. Instead, it’s all about making money and if that means ignoring everything that made the story a classic and instead turning it into a rip-off of every other recent blockbuster, so be it. At times, I wondered if I was watching a film based on Lewis Carroll or a film based on Suicide Squad. Well, regardless, the whole enterprise is way too cynical to really enjoy.
(On the plus side, the CGI is fairly well-done. If you listen, you’ll hear the voice of Alan Rickman.)
Gods of Egypt (dir by Alex Proyas)
I don’t even know where to begin when it comes to describing the plot of Gods of Egypt. This was one of the most confusing films that I’ve ever seen but then again, I’m also not exactly an expert when it comes to Egyptian mythology. As far as I could tell, it was about Egyptian Gods fighting some sort of war with each other but I was never quite sure who was who or why they were fighting or anything else. My ADHD went crazy while I was watching Gods of Egypt. There were so much plot and so many superfluous distractions that I couldn’t really concentrate on what the Hell was actually going on.
But you know what? With all that in mind, Gods of Egypt is still not as bad as you’ve heard. It’s a big and ludicrous film but ultimately, it’s so big and so ludicrous that it becomes oddly charming. Director Alex Proyas had a definite vision in mind when he made this film and that alone makes Gods of Egypt better than some of the other films that I’m reviewing in this post.
Is Gods of Egypt so bad that its good? I wouldn’t necessarily say that. Instead, I would say that it’s so ludicrous that it’s unexpectedly watchable.
The Huntsman: Winter’s War (dir by Cedric Nicolas-Troyan)
Bleh. Who cares? I mean, I hate to put it like that but The Huntsman: Winter’s War felt pretty much like every other wannabe blockbuster that was released in April of last year. Big battles, big cast, big visuals, big production but the movie itself was way too predictable to be interesting.
Did we really need a follow-up to Snow White and The Huntsman? Judging by this film, we did not.
Me Before You (dir by Thea Sharrock)
Me Before You was assisted suicide propaganda, disguised as a Nicolas Sparks-style love story. Emilia Clarke is hired to serve as a caregiver to a paralyzed and bitter former banker played by Sam Claflin. At first they hate each other but then they love each other but it may be too late because Claflin is determined to end his life in Switzerland. Trying to change his mind, Clarke tries to prove to him that it’s a big beautiful world out there. Claflin appreciates the effort but it turns out that he really, really wants to die. It helps, of course, that Switzerland is a really beautiful and romantic country. I mean, if you’re going to end your life, Switzerland is the place to do it. Take that, Sea of Trees.
Anyway, Me Before You makes its points with all the subtlety and nuance of a sledge-hammer that’s been borrowed from the Final Exit Network. It doesn’t help that Clarke and Claflin have next to no chemistry. Even without all the propaganda, Me Before You would have been forgettable. The propaganda just pushes the movie over the line that separates mediocre from terrible.
Mother’s Day (dir by Garry Marshall)
Y’know, the only reason that I’ve put off writing about how much I hated this film is because Garry Marshall died shortly after it was released and I read so many tweets and interviews from people talking about what a nice and sincere guy he was that I actually started to feel guilty for hating his final movie.
But seriously, Mother’s Day was really bad. This was the third of Marshall’s holiday films. All three of them were ensemble pieces that ascribed a ludicrous amount of importance to one particular holiday. None of them were any good, largely because they all felt like cynical cash-ins. If you didn’t see Valentine’s Day, you hated love. If you didn’t see New Year’s Eve, you didn’t care about the future of the world. And if you didn’t see Mother’s Day … well, let’s just not go there, okay?
Mother’s Day takes place in Atlanta and it deals with a group of people who are all either mothers or dealing with a mother. The ensemble is made up of familiar faces — Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, and others! — but nobody really seems to be making much of an effort to act. Instead, they simple show up, recite a few lines in whatever their trademark style may be, and then cash their paycheck. The whole thing feels so incredibly manipulative and shallow and fake that it leaves you wondering if maybe all future holidays should be canceled.
I know Garry Marshall was a great guy but seriously, Mother’s Day is just the worst.
As far as recent Biblical films go, Risen is not that bad. It takes place shortly after the Crucifixion and stars Joseph Fiennes as a Roman centurion who is assigned to discover why the body of Jesus has disappeared from its tomb. You can probably guess what happens next. The film may be a little bit heavy-handed but the Roman Empire is convincingly recreated, Joseph Fiennes gives a pretty good performance, and Kevin Reynolds keeps the action moving quickly. As a faith-based film that never becomes preachy, Risen is far superior to something like God’s Not Dead 2.
Just in time for Valentine’s Day, here’s the trailer for the upcoming film, Equals!
Kristen Stewart and Nicholas Hoult live in one of those dreary futures where both emotion and flattering clothing have been outlawed. Despite the law, Kristen and Nicholas fall in love and good for them! Seriously, the law was made to be broken…
Why should we be hopeful about Equals? Well, it was directed by Drake Doremus, who did the underrated Like Crazy.
I am so happy that Mad Max, Brooklyn, and Room were nominated but considering how many great films were released in 2015, it’s hard not to be disappointed with the nominees for Best Picture. No Carol. No Ex Machina. No Sicarioor Inside Out. No Straight Out Of Compton, Creed, or Beasts of No Nation. Is The Martian the only best picture winner to even have more than one African-American prominently featured in the cast? 10 years from now, when people can see past the politics and concentrate on the filmmaking, The Big Short will be recognized as one of the worst best picture nominees of all time.
As for other snubs, I am so sad to see that Kristen Stewart and Benicio Del Toro were not nominated in the supporting races. For that matter, Rooney was the lead in Carol and that’s where she should have been nominated. It’s also interesting to note that Mark Ruffalo was nominated for giving the worst performance in Spotlight.
I know that Spotlight is the official front runner but, looking at the nominations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Revenant win. Or maybe even (bleh!) The Big Short.
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Best Song “Fifty Shades of Grey” – “Earned It”
“The Hunting Ground” – “Til it Happens to You”
“Racing Extinction” – “Manta Ray” “Spectre” – “Writing’s on the Wall”
“Youth” – “Simple Song #3”
Best Documentary Feature “Amy”
“Cartel Land”
“The Look of Silence”
“What Happened, Miss Simone?”
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Embrace of the Serpent”
“Mustang”
“Son of Saul”
“Theeb”
“A War”
Best Animated Short
“Bear Story”
“Prologue”
“Sanjay’s Super Team”
“We Can’t Live without Cosmos”
“World of Tomorrow”
Best Documentary Short
“Body Team 12”
“Chau, Beyond the Lines”
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah”
“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness”
“Last Day of Freedom”
Best Live Action Short
“Ave Maria”
“Day One”
“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)”
“Shok”
“Stutterer”
With the Oscar nominations due to be announced tomorrow, now is the time that the Shattered Lens indulges in a little something called, “What if Lisa had all the power.” Listed below are my personal Oscar nominations. Please note that these are not the films that I necessarily think will be nominated. The fact of the matter is that the many of them will not. Instead, these are the films that would be nominated if I was solely responsible for deciding the nominees this year. Winners are starred and listed in bold.
(You’ll also note that I’ve added four categories, all of which I believe the Academy should adopt — Best Voice-Over Performance, Best Casting, Best Stunt Work, and Best Overall Use Of Music In A Film.)
(Click on the links to see my nominations for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010!)
Best Actress
Katharine Isabelle in 88
Brie Larson in Room
Rooney Mara in Carol
Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn
Amy Schumer in Trainwreck *Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina*
It’s a little bit disheartening, to be honest, to see the lack of attention that has been given to Clouds of Sils Maria. Kristen Stewart has picked up a lot of awards for her supporting performance and she might even get an Oscar nomination on Thursday but otherwise, the film has been ignored and that’s a shame. Last year, it was one of the best films to be released here in the States.
Of course, it’s difficult to talk about Clouds of Sils Maria without also talking about Maps To The Stars. After all, both films premiered at the 2014 Cannes Film Festival and both of them deal with an aging actress struggling to remain relevant in an industry that prizes youth above all else. The main difference between the two is that Clouds of Sils Maria is a great movie while Maps To The Stars is a pretentious mess. And yet, when initially released, Maps To The Stars was the more critically acclaimed of the two films.
Why was that?
I imagine it has something to do with the fact that Clouds of Sils Maria demands a certain amount of intelligence on the part of the audience. Whereas there’s neither a subtle moment nor an unexpected detail to be found in Maps To The Stars, Clouds of Sils Maria rewards repeat viewing. Clouds of Sils Maria invites the audience to ponder its mysteries and it does so without spelling anything out. Clouds of Sils Maria is all about nuance and, as such, it’s not exactly the ideal film for critics who make their living off of clickbait.
As for what the film is about, it tells the story of Maria Enders (Juliette Binoche), a world-famous stage and screen actress. 20 years ago, Maria became a star when she appeared in both the theatrical and the film versions of Maloja Snake. Maria played the role of Sigrid, a callous young woman who seduces a middle-aged, bourgeois woman named Helena. When Sigrid eventually abandons Helena, the older woman is driven to suicide. Though she is now closer in age to Helena, Maria continues to think of herself as being Sigrid.
When the writer of Maloja Snake dies, Maria is offered a chance to appear in a new stage production. However, this time, she will be playing Helena and a young American actress named J0-Ann Ellis (Chloe Grace Moretz) will play Sigrid. (Jo-Ann is better known for her scandalous private life than her acting. Moretz appears to have a lot of fun playing the Lindsay Lohanesque Jo-Ann.) At first, Maria does not want to play Helena. She dismisses the role as being boring and says that she cannot see herself playing such a “normal” character. (As well, Maria is haunted by the memory of the death of the actress who originally played Helena opposite Mara’s Sigrid.) Even after Maria is finally convinced to take on the role, she continues to insist that she’s not right for it. As quickly becomes apparent, it’s not so much the role that upsets Maria but what the role represents. By playing Helena, Maria will be admitting that she is no longer the invulnerable Sigrid.
In order to rehearse, Maria retreats to a remote cabin in the Alps. Accompanying her is Valentine (Kristen Stewart), her assistant. At first, it seems that Val and Maria have an almost sisterly relationship but it quickly becomes obvious that the out-of-touch Maria is largely dependent on Val for any information about the outside world. (Maria has to be constantly reminded that she can google any information she needs.) Despite needing her, Maria occasionally talks down to Val (especially after learning that Val thinks Jo-Ann is a good actress and that Val likes a sci-fi film that Jo-Ann has appeared in) and Val occasionally seems to be annoyed with Maria’s neediness.
In the Alps, Maria continues to try to learn Helena’s role and, as the weeks pass, her line readings go from awkward to natural. Reading opposite her, in the role of Sigrid, is Val and, often times, it’s difficult to distinguish between the play and reality. How much of Val and Maria’s relationship is real and how much of it is just a rehearsal?
Clouds of Sils Maria is a visually stunning film, one of that is fully mystery and beautiful images. Even more importantly, it’s a film that features three strong roles for three talented actresses, all of whom do some of their best work. Clouds of Sils Maria did not get the attention that it deserved when it was first released but it’s never too late to discover a good movie.
