It’s the end of the month and that means that it’s time for me to post my monthly predictions!
What has chanced since I last made my predictions in May? Though it was acclaimed by critics, the box office failure of In The Heights has probably ended that film’s time as an Oscar contender. For all the musicals that are coming out this year, only Spielberg’s West Side Story really seems like a good bet to emerge as a major contender. Dear Evan Hansen was pretty much eliminated from consideration as soon as its trailer dropped. Tick, Tick …. Boom seems to be destined to be loved by theater kids while being dismissed by everyone else. I’d love to see Joe Wright and Peter Dinklage nominated but my instincts are telling me that Cyrano will probably not be a huge contender. In the end, West Side Story seems like the most likely musical nominee.
I’ve been reading up on Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which is set to premiere at Venice and then be released via Netflix. Based on a novel by Thomas Savage, this sounds like the type of film that could potentially be a strong contender, depending on what approach Campion takes the story. The main character of Phil Burbank is the type of bigger-than-life role that could lead to Oscar glory. (The closest recent equivalent to Phil would probably be Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood.) Phil is a sharply intelligent but cruelly manipulative Montana rancher, the type who brags about castrating cattle while quoting Ovid and who goes out of his way to bully anyone who he considers to be effeminate. Of course, there’s a secret behind all of Phil’s cruelty and how the film handles that secret will have a lot to do with how strongly the film comes on during awards season. Phil is being played by Benedict Cumberbatch, which is …. interesting casting. (Personally, I probably would have begged Michael Fassbender to take the role.) Still, it seems like Phil could be the type of change-of-pace role that, should Cumberbatch’s casting pay off, could lead to Oscar glory.
Coming up in July, we’ve got Cannes and we’ll be getting our first look at contenders like Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. Though Cannes is hardly a reliable precursor, the Oscar race should start to become a bit clearer as the festival start up and the contenders — many of which we’ve been waiting to see for over two years — will finally start to be released. Until then, take all predictions with a grain of salt!
If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May.
Best Picture
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
A Journal for Jordan
Nightmare Alley
Parallel Mothers
Passing
The Power of the Dog
Soggy Bottom
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story
Best Director
Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers
Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Ridley Scott for House of Gucci
Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan
Best Actor
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Michael B. Jordan in A Journal for Jordan
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
Tessa Thompson in Passing
Best Supporting Actor
Adam Driver in The Last Duel
Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom
Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley
Bill Murray in The French Dispatch
Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Ruth Negga in Passing
