Lisa Marie’s Final 2022 Oscar Predictions


Well, it’s finally going to happen.  Tomorrow, the Oscar nominations are going to be announced.

And that means that it is time for me to make my final predictions as to which films will be nominated.  Keep in mind that these are not necessarily the films and performances that I would nominate if I had all the power.  (I’ll be posting those later.)  Instead, these are my predictions for what will be nominated on Tuesday morning!  If you want to see how my thinking has evolved over the past few months, check out my predictions for February, March, April, May. June, July, August, September, October, November, and December!

Without any further ado, here are my predictions for the Big Six Categories:

Best Picture:

All Quiet On The Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Oninon

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

Best Director

Edward Berger for All Quiet On The Western Front

Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All At Once

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Bill Nighy in Living

Adam Sandler in Hustle

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano in The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere At Once

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion

We’ll find out how right (or wrong) I am, come tomorrow morning!

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for December


Here they are!  These are my final Oscar predictions for 2022.  The critics groups have certainly helped to show us which films are major contenders.  That said, the Guilds are even more important so I can’t wait to see who they nominate and honor in January.

be sure to check out my predictions for FebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember, October, and November!

Best Picture

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

Best Director

Todd Field for TAR

Baz Luhrmann for Elvis

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Gabriel LaBelle in The Fabelmans

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Brad Pitt in Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Woman Talking

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Dolly de Leon in Triangle of Sadness

Janelle Monáe in Glass Onion

Here Are The Sequel-Dominated 2022 Satellite Nominations!


The Satellite nominations were announced on Thursday morning. 

What are the Satellites?  For years, they were like a less important version of the Golden Globes.  However, considering all of the recent controversy that has surrounded that Hollywood Foreign Press and the Golden Globes, it wouldn’t surprise me if, in a few years, the International Press Academy and the Satellites became Hollywood’s new favorite shady precursor group.

Like the Globes, the Satellites hand out awards for both film and television.  Below, you’ll find their film nominations.  If you want to see their TV nominations, Next Best Picture has got you covered.

Here are the Satellite noms for 2022!  To me, perhaps the most interesting thing about the nominations is that many of the biggest contenders — Glass Onion, Top Gun: Maverick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: Way of the Water — are sequels.  It’ll be interesting to see if the Academy follows suit.

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler – Till (United Artists Releasing)
Vicky Krieps – Corsage (IFC Films)
Viola Davis – The Woman King (TriStar Pictures)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Hugh Jackman – The Son (CAA Media Finance)
Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures)
Mark Wahlberg – Father Stu (Columbia Pictures)

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Janelle Monáe- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Searchlight Pictures)

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Collin Farrell – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix)
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jean Smart – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Dolly de Leon – Triangle Of Sadness (Neon)
Claire Foy – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Eddie Radmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (United Artists Realising)
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Living (Sony Pictures)
The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Till (United Artists Releasing)
Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)
Avatar: The Way Of The Water (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
TÁR (Focus Feature)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Triangle Of Sadness (Neon)
Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
RRR (Variance Films)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)

MOTION PICTURE, INTERNATIONAL
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Decision To Leave (Korea)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Close (Belgium)
War Sailor (Norway)
Corsage (Austria)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED OR MIXED MEDIA
Turning Red (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (A24)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
The Bad Guys (DWA)

MOTION PICTURE, DOCUMENTARY
The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)
All The Beauty And The Bloodshed (Neon)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Fire Of Love (Neon)
Descendant (Netflix)
The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile (Sony Pictures)
Good Night Oppy (Amazon Prime Video)
All That Breathes (HBO Documentary Films)
Young Plato (Yleisradio)

DIRECTOR
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way Of The Water (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Netflix)
Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Sarah Polley – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Ruben Östlund – Triangle Of Sadness (Neon)
Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features)
Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens – Close (A24)

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
Sarah Polley – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale (A24)
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living (Sony Pictures)
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said (Universal Pictures)

ORIGINAL SCORE
Harold Faltermeyer, Lady Gaga, Hans Zimmer, Lorne Balfe – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Terence Blanchard – The Woman King (TriStar Pictures)
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
John Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Carter Burwell – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking (United Artists Releasing)

ORIGINAL SONG
“Hold My Hand” – Lady Gaga: Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
“Lift Me Up” – Rihanna: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
“Naatu Naatu” – Kala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj: RRR (Variance Films)
“Vegas” – Doja Cat: Elvis (Warner Bros.)
“Carolina” – Taylor Swift: Where The Crawdads Sing (Columbia Pictures)
“Applause” – Diane Warren: Tell It Like a Woman (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Linus Sandgren – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Roger Deakins – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Davis – The Banshees Of Inisherin (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way Of The Water (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Mandy Walker – Elvis ( Warner Bros)

FILM EDITING
Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
Monika Willi – TÁR (Focus Features)
Terilyn A. Shropshire – The Woman King (TriStar Pictures)

SOUND ( Editor / Mixer )
Top Gun: Maverick – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson (Paramount Pictures)
Avatar: The Way Of The Water – Christopher Boyes (Supervising Sound Editor / Re-Recording Mixer ), Gwendolyn Yates Whittle Dick Bernstein (Supervising Sound Editors), Gary Summers, Michael Hedges (Re-Recording Mixers), Julian Howarth (Production Sound Mixer) (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Babylon – Steve Morrow, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson (Paramount Pictures)
Elvis – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, Michael Keller (Warner Bros.)
The Woman King – Becky Sullivan, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lamberti, Derek Mansvelt (Sony Pictures)
RRR – Raghunath Kemisetty, Boloy Kumar Doloi, Rahul Karpe (Variance Films)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Top Gun: Maverick – Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson (Paramount Pictures)
Avatar: The Way Of The Water – Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, Richie Baneham, Dan Barrett (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Babylon – Jay Cooper, Elia Popov, Kevin Martel, Ebrahim Jahromi (Paramount Pictures)
Good Night Oppy – Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev, Steven Nichols (Amazon Prime Video)
The Batman – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohu (Warner Bros)
RRR – V. Srinivas Mohan (Variance Films)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
RRR – Sabu Cyril (Variance Films)
Babylon – Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino (Paramount Pictures)
Elvis – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy (Warner Bros.)
Avatar: The Way Of The Water – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
The Fabelmans – Rick Carter (Universal Pictures)
A Love Song – Juliana Barreto Barreto (Bleecker Street Media)

COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Mary Zophres – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Cathrine Matrin – Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Gersha Phillips – The Woman King (TriStar Pictures)
Sandy Powell – Living (Sony Pictures)
Alexandra Byrne – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

ENSEMBLE MOTION PICTURE: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


We are right on the cusp of Awards Season, which means that the Oscar race is about to become a bit more clear!

Below, you’ll find my predictions for November!  In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, and October!

Best Picture

Aftersun

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Best Director

Todd Field for TAR

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Charlotte Wells for Aftersun

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Margot Robbie in Babylon

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Women Talking

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Claire Foy in Women Talking

Nina Hoss in Tar

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For August


It’s that time of the month again!

Here are my Oscar predictions for August.  By the end of September, the picture should be a bit clearer.  Until then, most of the predictions listed below continue to be guesses.

Be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, and July!

Best Picture

Babylon

Elvis

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

The Inspection

The Son

TAR

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

Best Director

The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once

Todd Field for TAR

Baz Luhrmann for Elvis

Steven Speilberg for The Fabelmans

Florian Zeller for The Son

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Hugh Jackman in The Son

Harry Styles in My Policeman

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Olivia Colman in Empire of Light

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Anthony Hopkins in The Son

David Lynch in The Fabelmans

Tobey Maguire in Babylon

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Laura Dern in The Son

Sally Field in Spoiler Alert

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For July


Little by little, the Oscar race is starting to become just a little bit clearer.  It’s still early, of course.  Really, it’s way too early to say anything for sure.  But it’s also hard to deny that certain films are now much more in the conversation than others.

The biggest development this month was the announcement that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not be released until 2023.  That takes it out of Oscar contention …. for now.  (For those who may have forgotten, it was originally announced, halfway through 2013, that The Wolf of Wall Street would not be ready until sometimes in 2014.  Everyone dutifully updated their Oscar predictions, striking The Wolf of Wall Street from their lists of likely best picture nominees.  Then, at the last minute, Scorsese announced that the film actually would be ready for 2013.  If something similar happens this year, Killers of the Flower Moon will go right back to being a huge contender because it’s Scorsese and he’s one of the best, regardless of what certain Marvel fans would have you believe.)  With Scorsese apparently out, it would now appear that Steven Spielberg is going to be the only member of the old guard with a film in the Oscar race.  Considering that many people believe that Spielberg’s West Side Story was snubbed last year when it only took home one Oscar (out of a total of sever nominations), The Fabelmans seems like it will be a major contender.  Admittedly, my hope that David Lynch will earn an acting nomination for playing John Ford in The Fabelmans may be a longshot but it can not be denied that it would be a cool development.

As for the other contenders, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, and Everything Everywhere All At Once all seem poised to ride a combination of critical acclaim and box office success into the Oscar race.  Todd Field has finally returned with TarThe Whale has the potential to be a comeback vehicle for the always likable Brendan Fraser.  She Said, Till, and Women Talking all stand to take advantage of the current political climate.  And Babylon will presumably give Hollywood a chance to celebrate itself.

The Oscar picture is still a bit cloudy but, with so many major festival on the horizon, those clouds should be parting soon.

Be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, and June!

Best Picture

Babylon

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

She Said

Tar

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for Babylon

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (The Daniels) for Everything Everywhere All At Once

Todd Field for Tar

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Adam Driver in White Noise

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Harry Styles in My Policeman

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Tar

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Ana de Arms in Blonde

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness

David Lynch in The Fabelmans

Tobey Maguire in Babylon

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Women Talking

Patricia Clarkson in She Said

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sally Field in Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For March


Now that the awards for last year’s films have been given out and everyone has already started to forget who won, we can start to concentrate on the next batch of Oscar contenders….

Oh, stop yelling.  It’s not that early!

Well, actually, it is way too early.  I mean, we’re still not really sure what is even going to be released this year.  Due to all the COVID delays, we went into 2021 knowing which films we could look forward to, mostly because all of those films were originally supposed to be released in 2020.  Compared to 2021, we’re going into 2022 blind.  The majority of the films that we do know about don’t really sound like Oscar contenders, either.

So, really, the only solution to how to predict the Oscar nominees when you know nothing is to guess.  The films and actors listed below are not there because I have any inside information.  Instead, they are there as a result of some wishful thinking and some educated guesses.  Killers of the Flower Moon was directed by Martin Scorsese, so of course it’s there.  The Fabelmans is there because a lot of people feel that the Academy didn’t show Spielberg and West Side Story enough love this year and I think the fact that the film is autobiographical will make it irresistible to same voters who nominated BelfastNapoleon is there because there might be some lingering guilt over how both Ridley Scott and The Last Duel were utterly ignored this year.  Rustin is there because it’s an Obama production and Hollywood loves the Obamas.  Chris Rock is listed as a supporting actor nominee because it would be the perfect conclusion to the saga of the Oscar Slap.  David Lynch is listed because …. well, I like David Lynch.  Personally, it’s doubtful that Tom Hanks will be able to pull off two nominations in one year but if anyone could do it, it’s Tom!

In other words, don’t take any of these predictions too seriously.  As of now, there are no definite contenders.  These are just some guesses.

Be sure to check out my even more random predictions for February as well!

Best Picture

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Rustin

She Said

TAR

Thirteen Lives

Till

The Woman King

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for Babylon

Chinonye Chukwu for Till

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Ridley Scott for Napoleon

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Tom Hanks in A Man Called Otto

Joaquin Phoenix in The Whale

Brad Pitt in Babylon

Best Actress

Naomi Ackie for I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actor

John Boyega in The Woman King

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon

Tom Hanks in Elvis

David Lynch in The Fabelmans

Chris Rock in Rustin

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern in The Son

Sally Field in Spoiler Alert

Greta Gerwig in White Noise

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Li Jun Li in Babylon

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For February


Is it too early to start talking about next year’s Oscar race?

Of course, it is!  But I’m going to do it anyway.

Below, you’ll find the installment of my monthly list of Oscar predictions, not for what will win at the end of March but instead for what we’ll see nominated next year.  Obviously, there’s a lot that we don’t know about what’s going to happen later this year.  Only a few of the movies listed below have firmly set release dates.  Needless to say, I haven’t seen any of the films below and, as a result, I’m largely going on instinct.  Who knows if the films will be as good as their plot descriptions?  As much as I hate the overused quote from William Goldman, right now, no one knows anything.  Indeed, it’s not really until Festival Season hits that we really start to get even a vaguely clear picture of the Oscar race and we’ve got a long way to go until Cannes.

(And really, it’s debatable how much of a factor Cannes really is.  If the Oscar nominations were determined by Cannes, Red Rocket and The French Dispatch would be battling it out for best picture right now.)

The predictions below are, for the most part, just random guesses.  Most of them involve people who have won Oscars in the past.  The Fabelmans is there because it’s a Spielberg film, just as Killers of the Flower Moon makes the list because it’s directed by Martin Scorsese and it stars Leonard DiCaprio and Robert De Niro.  And, of course, a lot of the predictions are just the result of wishful thinking on my part.  I think it would be kind of fun if David Lynch got an acting nomination for his role in The Fabelmans, whatever that role may be.  I also think it would be nice if Brendan Fraser got a nomination to go along with his recent comeback.  I don’t know much about The Whale, beyond the fact that Fraser plays a 600-pound man trying to reconnect with his daughter.  For now, that’s enough.

So, without further ado, here are my way too early Oscar predictions!  As always, take them with a grain of salt.

Best Picture

Babylon

The Fabelmans

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Kitbag

Maestro

She Said

TAR

White Noise

The Woman King

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for Babylon

Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Ridley Scott for Kitbag

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Ryan Gosling in The Actor

Brad Pitt in Babylon

Best Actress

Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Ana de Armas in Blonde

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Best Supporting Actor

Bobby Cannavale in Blonde

Robert De Niro in Killer of the Flower Moon

John Boyega in The Woman King

Tom Hanks in Elvis

David Lynch in The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Tantoo Cardinal in Killers of the Flower Moon

Laura Dern in The Son

Li Jun Li in Babylon

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

The Black Reel Awards Honor Judas and the Black Messiah


The 2020 winners of the Black Reel Awards have been announced, with Judas and the Black Messiah taking the prize for best film.

Here are all the nominees and winners:

OUTSTANDING MOTION PICTURE
DA 5 BLOODS
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
SOUL

OUTSTANDING ACTOR
KINGSLEY BEN-ADIR – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
CHADWICK BOSEMAN – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
DELROY LINDO – DA 5 BLOODS
ROB MORGAN – BULL
LAKEITH STANFIELD – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

OUTSTANDING ACTRESS
NICOLE BEHARIE – MISS JUNETEENTH
VIOLA DAVIS – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANDRA DAY – THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
TESSA THOMPSON – SYLVIE’S LOVE
ZENDAYA – MALCOLM & MARIE

OUTSTANDING DIRECTOR
RADHA BLANK – THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
REGINA KING – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
SHAKA KING – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
SPIKE LEE – DA 5 BLOODS
CHANNING GODFREY PEOPLES – MISS JUNETEENTH

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHADWICK BOSEMAN – DA 5 BLOODS
COLMAN DOMINGO – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ALDIS HODGE – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
DANIEL KALUUYA – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
LESLIE ODOM JR. – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ALEXIS CHIKAEZE – MISS JUNETEENTH
DOMINIQUE FISHBACK – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
KIKI LAYNE – THE OLD GUARD
TRACEE ELLIS ROSS – THE HIGH NOTE
GABOUREY SIDIBE – ANTEBELLUM

OUTSTANDING SCREENPLAY
THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION – RADHA BLANK
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – WILL BERSON & SHAKA KING
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – RUBEN SANTIAGO-HUDSON
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI – KEMP POWERS
SOUL – PETE DOCTER, MIKE JONES & KEMP POWERS

OUTSTANDING DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
ALL IN: THE FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY
JOHN LEWIS: GOOD TROUBLE
MLK/FBI
TIME
THE WAY I SEE IT

OUTSTANDING FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
HIS HOUSE
NIGHT OF THE KINGS
THE LIFE AHEAD

OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE
DA 5 BLOODS
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MISS JUNETEENTH
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

OUTSTANDING VOICE PERFORMANCE
ANGELA BASSETT – SOUL
JAMIE FOXX – SOUL
MAYA RUDOLPH – THE WILLOUGHBYS
OCTAVIA SPENCER – ONWARD
PHYLICIA RASHAD – SOUL

OUTSTANDING SCORE
THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION – GUY C. ROUTTE
JINGLE JANGLE: A CHRISTMAS JOURNEY – JOHN DEBNEY
THE PHOTOGRAPH – ROBERT GLASPER
SOUL – TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS & JON BATISTE
SYLVIE’S LOVE – FABRICE LECOMTE

OUTSTANDING ORIGINAL SONG
FIGHT FOR YOU – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MAKE IT WORK – JINGLE JANGLE: A CHRISTMAS JOURNEY
POVERTY PORN – THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
SPEAK NOW – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
TIGRESS & TWEED – THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

OUTSTANDING INDEPENDENT FEATURE
AMERICAN SKIN
FAREWELL AMOR
THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
MISS JUNETEENTH
SYLVIE’S LOVE

OUTSTANDING SHORT FILM
BROTHER
CANVAS
THE CYPHER
GRAB MY HAND: A LETTER TO MY DAD
THE PANDEMIC CHRONICLES

OUTSTANDING INDEPENDENT DOCUMENTARY
MR. SOUL!
THE SIT-IN: HARRY BELAFONTE HOSTS THE TONIGHT SHOW
WITH DRAWN ARMS

OUTSTANDING EMERGING DIRECTOR
EUGENE ASHE – SYLVIE’S LOVE
RADHA BLANK – THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
REGINA KING – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
SHAKA KING – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
CHANNING GODFREY PEOPLES – MISS JUNETEENTH

OUTSTANDING BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE, MALE
YAHYA ABDUL-MANTEEN II – THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
KINGSLEY BEN-ADIR – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
DUSAN BROWN – MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ELI GOREE – ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
NTARE MWINE – FAREWELL AMOR

OUTSTANDING BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE, FEMALE
RADHA BLANK – THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION
ALEXIS CHIKAEZE – MISS JUNETEENTH
ANDRA DAY – THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
DOMINIQUE FISHBACK – JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
ZENDAYA – MALCOLM & MARIE

OUTSTANDING FIRST SCREENPLAY
THE FORTY-YEAR-OLD VERSION – RADHA BLANK
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – RUBEN SANTIAGO-HUDSON
MISS JUNETEENTH – CHANNING PEOPLES GODFREY
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI – KEMP POWERS
SYLVIE’S LOVE – EUGENE ASHE

OUTSTANDING CINEMATOGRAPHY
DA 5 BLOODS
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MALCOLM & MARIE
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
TENET

OUTSTANDING COSTUME DESIGN
JINGLE JANGLE: A CHRISTMAS JOURNEY
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
SYLVIE’S LOVE
THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY

OUTSTANDING PRODUCTION DESIGN
JINGLE JANGLE: A CHRISTMAS JOURNEY
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
TENET

Lisa Marie’s Final 2020-2021 Oscar Predictions


The 2020 Oscar nominations are finally going to be announced on March 15th and then the Oscars themselves are going to be awarded at the end of April.  To be honest, we should call these the 2020-2021 Oscars because I refuse to think of Nomadland, Minari, or The Father as being 2020 films.  Because of the extended eligibility window, they’re all Oscar-eligible but still….

That means that it’s time for me to make my final Oscar predictions for this latest awards cycle.  Last night, The Golden Globes cleared up a few races and suggested that a few others are still in a state of flux.  Of the three big surprise winners from last night (Andra Day, Jodie Foster, and Rosamund Pike) Day seems to be the most likely to benefit from her victory.  I also think that Foster might benefit as well, just because she’s Jodie Foster and she doesn’t appear in a lot of films nowadays.  I’m also willing to say that, based on his getting a GG nom and a SAG nom, I think Jared Leto has a better chance than some might realize of picking up another Oscar nomination.

What about Glenn Close?  On the one hand, Close has never won an Oscar and she gives a very awards baity performance in Hillbilly Elegy.  On the other hand, Hillbilly Elegy was critically-blasted and both the film and Close’s performance were included on the Razzie longlist, which was released earlier today.  (The Razzies suck but that’s a topic for another post.)  I would feel better about Close’s chances if she had won a Golden Globe last night but I’m still inclined to include her in my predictions.

(To be honest, up until Close lost, I still thought there was a chance that Hillbilly Elegy could pick up an Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close-style best picture nomination, the type of nomination that comes as a result of voters watching a critically lambasted film for one performance and saying, “Well, that wasn’t as bad as everyone says!”)

Finally, I’m going to continue to predict a surprise Best Picture nomination for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, just because it’ll be another chance for the same voters who nominated Vice to express their feelings about Donald Trump and Rudy Guiliani.

If you want to see how my thinking has evolved over this long awards season, check out my predictions for January (2020)February (2020), March (2020AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember, December, and January (2021)!

Here are my final predictions:

Best Picture

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night In Miami

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

(I’m predicting 9 best picture nominees. I’m looking forward to the Academy going back to having a set number of best picture nominees.  It breaks my heart not to include First Cow and Sound of Metal among my predicted nominees.)

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung for Minari

Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

Regina King for One Night in Miami

Aaron Sorkin for Mank

Chloe Zhao for Nomadland

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins in The Father

Gary Oldman in Mank

Steven Yeun in Minari

Best Actress

Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holliday

Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand in Nomadland

Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

Jared Leto in The Little Things

Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night In Miami

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy

Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian

Amanda Seyfried in Mank

Youn Yuh-jung in Minari

We’ll find out how right or wrong I am on March 15th!