Well, it’s the time of the month again.
No, not that time! That time ended two days ago. I’m talking about the fact that it’s time for me to once again share my monthly Oscar predictions. Thanks to the festival circuit, we’ve finally gotten some advance word on the big Oscar contenders that will be coming out over the next few months.
Belfast, as of right now, sounds like the prohibitive favorite to win it all. At first, it seemed like the reaction to The Power of the Dog was a bit mixed but later reactions were almost overwhelmingly positive. It sounds like the type of film that will be nominated even if it won’t necessarily win. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter is coming on strong, as is Spencer. For me, the biggest surprise has been the amount of acclaim that Dune has been getting. I was a bit dismissive of its Oscar chances earlier this year but now it definitely sounds like it will be in the hunt.
West Side Story has been seen by no one but I continue to list it because it’s a Spielberg film and, with all the musicals that are being released this year and which have subsequently struggled with either critics or audiences or both, it still seems the most likely to pick up a nomination. I’m a little bit skeptical on whether or not Nightmare Alley is going to be an “Oscar picture” but the trailer was nice to look at so I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. House of Gucci is three hours long and full of stars so it’s either going to be an Oscar nominee or a complete bomb.
You may notice a lack of predicted nominations for Licorice Pizza. Licorice Pizza is a film that I fully expect to love but the trailer definitely feels a bit more like Inherent Vice than The Phantom Thread. I still think that the actors could get nominated but the rumor right now is that Bradley Cooper’s role is actually very small. That’s why I no longer have him listed as a supporting actor nominee.
Again, keep in mind that I’m not an expert. The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that. These are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August!
House of Gucci
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Lives
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jason Isaac in Mass
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
Dame Judi Dench in Belfast
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin in CODA