Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re nearly halfway through the year and so far, we have two films that seem like they might still be in the Oscar conversation at the end of the year, Dune 2 and Civil War.  With the Cannes Film Festival coming up this month, we should soon have some more contenders to consider.

My predictions below are a bit heavy on sequels.  In fact, if the predictions below came true, it would a record year for sequels at the Oscars.  Of course, it’s early and it’s totally probable that the majority of the films listed below will not be nominated.  Right now, it’s pretty much a guessing game.  The production delays caused by last year’s strikes have opened the door for a lot of sequels to receive consideration that they might not receive in other years.

What will happen when the nominations are announced in 2025?  Who knows?  For now, let’s just have fun guessing.  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking here.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Civil War

Dune, Part II

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator 2

Inside Out 2

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Alex Garland for Civil War

Steve McQueen for Blitz

George Miller for Furiousa: A Mad Max Saga

Ridley Scott for Gladiator 2

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Paul Mescal in Gladiator 2

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Noemie Merlant in Emmanuelle

Anya Taylor-Joy in Furiosa

Zendaya in Challengers

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Denzel Washington in Gladiator 2

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Connie Nielsen in Gladiator 2

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Here Is The Official Cannes Lineup!


The lineup for the Cannes Film Festival has been announced.  After a rather subdued Sundance, film lovers like me are desperately looking to Cannes to add some excitement to 2024.  Considering that Cannes is going to see the premiere of new films from Francis Ford Coppola, Paul Schrader, Sean Baker, Kevin Costner, Andrea Arnold, George Miller, David Cronenberg, and Yorgos Lanthimos, it might do just that!

In the past, Cannes has always been hit-and-miss when it comes to the Oscars.  But lately, films like The Zone of Interest, Parasite, and The Tree of Life have followed success at Cannes with success with the Academy.

With that in mind, here’s the lineup.  If you’re going to Cannes in May, you’re going to have a good time!

Full lineup of the 2024 Cannes film festival.

The Second Act Quentin Dupieux (Opening Film) (Out of Competition)

Competition

L’Amour Ouf Gilles Lellouche

All We Imagine As Light Payal Kapadia

Anora Sean Baker

The Apprentice Ali Abbasi

Bird Andrea Arnold

Caught by the Tides Jia Zhangke

Emilia Perez Jacques Audiard

The Girl With the Needle Magnus von Horn

Grand Tour Miguel Gomes

Limonov: The Ballad Kirill Serebrennikov

Marcello Mio Christophe Honoré

Megalopolis Francis Ford Coppola

Motel Destino Karim Ainouz

Oh Canada Paul Schrader

Parthenope Paolo Sorrentino

The Shrouds David Cronenberg

The Substance Coralie Fargeat

Wild Diamond Agathe Riedinger

Kinds of Kindness Yorgos Lanthimos

Out of Competition

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga George Miller

Horizon, an American Saga Kevin Costner

Rumours Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson, Guy Maddin

She’s Got No Name Chan Peter Ho-Sun

Un Certain Regard

Armand Halfdan Ullmann Tondel

Black Dog Guan Hu

The Damned Roberto Minervini

L’Histoire de Souleymane Boris Lojkine

My Sunshine Boku No Ohisama

Norah Tawik Alzaidi

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl Rungano Nyoni

Le Royaume Julien Colonna

Santosh Sandhya Suri

September Says Ariane Labed

The Shameless Konstantin Bojanov

Viet and Nam Truong Minh Quý

The Village Next to Paradise Mo Harawe

Vingt Deux! Louise Courvoisier

Who Let the Dogs Bite? Laetitia Dosch

Midnight Screenings

The Balconettes Noémie Merlant

I, The Executioner Seung Wan Ryoo

The Surfer Lorcan Finnegan

Twilight of the Warrior Walled In Soi Cheang

Cannes Premiere

C’est Pas Moi Leos Carax

Everybody Loves Touda Nabil Ayouch

The Matching Bang Emmanuel Courcol

Misericorde Alain Guiraudie

Rendez-Vous Avec Pol Pot Rithy Panh

Le Roman de Jim Arnaud Larrieu, Jean-Marie Larrieu

Special Screenings

Apprendre Claire Simon

La Belle de Gaza Yolande Zauberman

Ernest Cole, Lost and Found Raoul Peck

Le Fil Daniel Auteuil

The Invasion Sergei Loznitsa

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Now that the 2023 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2024 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  Sundance was a bit low-key this year.  Dune Part II seems like a contender but will it be remembered 9 months from now?  Whereas last year started out with everyone waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, this year feels far different as Hollywood, still recovering from last year’s strikes, tries to catch up.  As many will say over the months to come, no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Didi

Dune, Part II

Emmanuelle

The Fire Inside

Here

Hit Man

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Richard Linklater for Hit Man

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part II

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Andre Holland in The Actor

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Adria Arjona in Hit Man

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Anthony Wong in Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Naomi Watts in Emmanuelle

A Few Late Thoughts On The 96th Oscars


Last night, the Oscars actually ended early.

Not that early, of course.  In fact, towards the end of the show, Jimmy Kimmel came out and did his usual anti-Trump schtick just to pad out the running time so that the Oscars managed to make it to the allotted 3 hour and 30 minute mark.  (And yes, it is schtick.  The late night hosts need Trump just as much as Trump needs them.)  The thing is, though, the Oscars usually run over by a good 30 minutes.  The show ending on time means that it ended early.  This is the first Oscar telecast, in my lifetime, to end on time.  I could actually go out and do stuff after the show ended.  It was fun!

As for the show itself, it was a relatively smooth production.  No one got slapped.  There were no major technical snafus.  As to be expected, there were a few embarrassing acceptance speeches.  I thought Zone of Interest was a powerful film and I also thought Under The Skin was brilliant but I can still do without ever having to listen to Jonathan Glazer give another speech.  One can only imagine how Martin Amis would have reacted to Glazer’s “speech.”

(Martin Amis wrote the novel that served as the basis for the film that won Glazer an Oscar.  Amis never had much use for the wimpy or the self-important.)

Ryan Gosling’s performance of I Am Ken was the highlight of the show.  Of course, then the song failed to win the Oscar.  It reminded me a bit of how, in 2021, the entire broadcast was designed to end with Chadwick Boseman receiving a posthumous award, just for a confused Joaquin Phoenix to read Anthony Hopkins’s name instead.  Sometimes, the voters really do just vote for who or what they think should win, regardless of the preferred narrative.

In fact, for all the hype, Barbie wasn’t much of a factor in the awards.  It won one Oscar, for the song that wasn’t I Am Ken.  The Academy was far more impressed with Poor Things.  Still, Barbie did better than Killers of the Flower Moon, which won not a single award.  Poor Things‘s Emma Stone defeating Lily Gladstone was the upset of the evening.  Am I the only one who briefly got worried that Poor Things would somehow win Best Picture over Oppenheimer?

The big winner, of course, was Oppenheimer.  My top film of 2023 was Past Lives but Oppenheimer was a close second.  (Until Glazer gave his speech, Zone of Interest was my third pick.)  Robert Downey, Jr. became the first former SNL cast member to win an acting Oscar.  Christopher Nolan accepted his Oscar from Steven Spielberg, which felt like a real changing-of-the-guard moment.  Cillian Murphy won Best Actor.  I would have voted for Paul Giamatti but Murphy still deserves a lot of credit for holding Oppenheimer together.

Godzilla is an Oscar winner!  Yay!

All in all, it was a good show.  Occasionally, it was even fun.  It was very efficient, as if the Academy specifically picked this year to show ABC that it actually could put on an orderly show that didn’t preempt the entire network’s programming by an extra hour.  My advice for next year would be to stop doing the thing where five previous winners came out to praise the current nominees.  (That bit has always felt a bit condescending and I would much rather see clips of the nominated performances.)  And maybe get John Mulaney to host because Jimmy Kimmel has become just way too impressed with himself.

Now, 2023 is done.  Onward to 2024!

(Actually, you know what I haven’t done, yet?  I haven’t posted my picks for the best of 2023.  I’ll do that this week, even though I doubt anyone cares at this point.  But I’ve posted my lists every year and I’m not going to break tradition now.  I just have a handful of movies to watch today and tomorrow….)

Congratulations! You Have Survived Another Oscar Sunday!


That’s it!  That’s a wrap!  All that is left to do is to cue up all of our applause GIFs:

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We hope everyone has enjoyed Oscar Sunday!

shia

Now that the Oscars are over with, it’s time to start a new year of entertainment!  Thank you everyone for reading us over the course of 2023 and the first two months of 2024!

snape

Now, let’s make 2024 the best year ever as we continue to celebrate the 14th year of the Shattered Lens!

toys

Love you!

Congratulations On The Oscar, Godzilla!


Godzilla is an Oscar winner!

Seriously, can you believe that it took 70 years for Godzilla to finally not only be nominated for an Oscar but also to win one?  Godzilla Minus One was the first Godzilla film to receive an Oscar nomination and it more than deserved to win for Best Visual Effects.  Godzilla Minus One was a reminder that, when you have imagination and ingenuity, you don’t always need a huge budget.  I’m happy that, in a year dominated by expensive movies and CGI, the Academy finally gave Godzilla the attention and the respect that he deserves!

Way to go, Godzilla!  Enjoy the rest of your career!

Here’s What Won At The 96th Oscars


Best Picture: Oppenheimer

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Best Actress: Emma Stone, Poor Things.

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design: Poor Things

Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Best Make-Up and Hair-Styling: Poor Things

Best Production Design: Poor Things

Best Score: Oppenheimer

Best Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Best Sound: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

Best Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature: 20 Days In Mariupol

Best International Film: The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Short: War Is Over: Inspired By The Music of John and Yoko

Best Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop

Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar

(As far as my predictions were concerned, my final sore was 14 for 22!)

6 Directors Who I Hope Will Win An Oscar In The Next Ten Years


  1. Richard Linklater

How did Richard Linklater not win the Oscar for Boyhood?

Seriously, Boyhood’s loss to Birdman and Linklater’s loss to Alejandro González Iñárritu were two of the biggest mistakes that the Academy has made since the start of the new century.  Linklater spent twelve years filming a movie, with no idea of what the eventual story would be, and he somehow made one of the best and more cohesive films of the 2010s.  And somehow, that was not good enough for the Academy.

And while that may not bother the independent-minded Linklater, it does bother me.  Here’s hoping the Academy will make it up to Linklater soon.  His upcoming film, Hitman, has been critically acclaimed but it doesn’t necessarily sound like Oscar fare.  Well, no matter!  Linklater will hopefully get his Oscar soon.

Here are five other directors who I hope will be honored in the next ten years.

2. Jeff Nichols

Speaking of directors with possible contenders set to be released, Jeff Nichols could be a contender at the next ceremony for his work on The Bikeriders.  Originally, The Bikeriders was set to be released in 2023 but it was delayed by the SAG strike.  Ever since Take Shelter, Nichols has been a consistently interesting and intelligent director.  I can’t wait to see The Bikeriders!

3. Sofia Coppola

Sofia is a perennial on these lists and I’ll keep including her until she finally wins her Oscar.  No one captures the beauty of ennui with quite the skill and visual flair of Sofia Coppola.

4. Celine Song

Past Lives is a film that deserved a lot more love than it received from the Academy.  I can’t wait to see what Song does next!

5. Denis Villeneuve

Villeneuve, as of right now, seems like he’ll definitely be a contender next year for his work on the Dune sequel.  Even if he’s not remembered at next year’s ceremony, he still seems to be one of those directors who is destined to win sooner than later.

6. Paul Schrader

Seriously, can you imagine the speech he’d give?

6 Actresses Who I Hope Win An Oscar In The Next 10 Years


Continuing the theme from my previous post, here are 6 actresses who I sincerely hope will have won their first competitive Oscar by the time that the 2033 ceremony rolls around.

  1. Greta Lee

Greta Lee, regardless of what the Academy might claim later tonight, gave the best performance of 2023 in Past Lives and it’s a shame that she wasn’t even nominated for her work.  Fortunately, her work in Past Lives will undoubtedly lead to more roles.  She will be appearing in the new Tron film, which …. doesn’t sound like an Oscar contender.  But no worries!  Hopefully, she’ll get another award-worthy role soon.

2. Glenn Close

For all of her nominations, Glenn Close has never won an Oscar, which is just shocking.  She’s won almost every other award out there but the Oscar remains elusive.  Hopefully, that will be corrected soon.  Like Harrison Ford, who I mentioned in the previous post, Glenn Close isn’t getting any younger and one hope that she’ll soon get a role that the Academy can use to honor both her and her entire career.

3. Scarlett Johansson  

I always mention Scarlett on these lists and I’ll keep doing so until she wins.  She’s received two nominations (both in the same year and both very much overdue) but she has yet to win an Oscar to make up for the one that she should have won for Lost In Translation.

4. Amy Adams

My fellow redhead, the amazing Amy Adams, has been nominated a lot but she has yet to win.  As she’s best when she’s allowed to be naturalistic, it seems that the Academy has taken her for granted.  She should have won for Arrival and she should not have to make any more films like Hillbilly Elegy just to get the award she deserves.

5. Naomi Watts

Naomi Watts is, like Amy Adams, taken for granted.  The Academy still owes her for Mulholland Drive, as far as I’m concerned.

6. Saoirse Ronan

With four nominations before she has even turned 30, Saoirse Ronan is destined to eventually win an Oscar.  She should have already won for both Brooklyn and Lady Bird.

6 Actors Who I Hope Will Win An Oscar Soon


We talk a lot about which performers and directors have been snubbed at Oscar time.

For movie lovers, that’s an important subject. We all know that great actors like Peter O’Toole, Cary Grant, Albert Finney, and far too many others all went to their graves with several nominations but not a single competitive Oscar to their name. Just four years ago, Kirk Douglas died at the age of 103 without having ever won a competitive Oscar.  We always talk about how certain actors are overdue for their first Oscar but sometimes we forget that being overdue doesn’t always translate into an eventual win. Sometimes, it translates into people watching a movie on TCM and saying, “How did that person never win an Oscar in their lifetime?”

With that in mind, here are 6 actors who I sincerely hope will have won their first Oscar by the time that 2034 rolls around:

  1. Brendan Gleeson

Brendan Gleeson is a perennial on these lists but I going to keep including him until he gets the Oscar that he deserves.  Last year, he finally received his first nomination but he didn’t win.  Hopefully, right this minute, he’s considering the role that will finally bring him some Oscar glory.

2. Kevin Bacon

Kevin Bacon is another perennial on this list.  He’s a good actor, he seems to be a likable guy, and I have never met a single person who doesn’t have some sort of affection for him.  However, Kevin Bacon has never won an Oscar.  In fact, he’s never even been nominated!  Bacon is one of those actors who people tend to take for granted.  Hopefully, over the next ten years, he’ll become the first Friday the 13th counselor to win an Oscar.

3. Paul Giamatti

I nearly didn’t include Giamatti on this list because he is nominated tonight and, though Cillian Murphy is currently the favorite, there’s still a chance that Giamatti could pull off an upset.  But Giamatti is such a talent that, until he does actually win, there really wasn’t any way I couldn’t include him.  Giamatti has the unique talent to be able to generate sympathy for otherwise extremely off-putting characters.  He may not win tonight but he will win eventually.

4. Eric Roberts

Come on, you knew he was going to show up on this list.  Eric Roberts has had a long career, one that has definitely had its ups-and-downs.  However, he’s never stopped working and his willingness to appear in everything from major studio productions to cheap softcore thrillers to faith-based films has made him a bit of a beloved cultural institution.  Roberts has always had the talent to earn an Oscar.  He probably should have won for Star 80.  Here’s hoping for a film that does for him what The Wrestler did for Mickey Rourke.

5. Harrison Ford

He’s not getting any younger and he only has ONE Oscar nomination to his name.  Get on it, Hollywood!

6. Ryan Reynolds

You just know the acceptance speech would be one for the ages.