So, it’s that time of the month again!
No, not that time. I meant, that it’s time for me to share my Oscar predictions. Here are the usual disclaimers: I haven’t seen any of these films, it’s way too early in the year for me to attempt to do this, this list is all about instinct and wishful thinking, blah blah blah blah.
To see how my thinking has evolved, be sure to check out my predictions for January and February!
Best Picture
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Call of the Wild
Fair and Blanced
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
The Irishman
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Torrance
Best Director
Greta Gerwig for Little Women
Kasi Lemmons for Harriet
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Joe Talbot for The Last Black Man In San Francisco
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Best Actor
Ben Affleck in Torrance
Robert De Niro in The Irishman
Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood
John Lithgow in Fair and Balanced
Eddie Murphy in My Name Is Dolemite
Best Actress
Amy Adams in The Woman In The Window
Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
Blake Lively in The Rhythm Section
Saoirse Ronan in Little Women
Afre Woodard in Clemency
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon in Ford v Ferrari
Harrison Ford in Call of the Wild
Danny Glover in The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Malcolm McDowell in Fair and Balanced
Brad Pitt in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern in Little Women
Tiffany Haddish in The Kitchen
Nicole Kidman in The Goldfinch
Janelle Monae in Harriet
Margot Robbie in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
A few notes on the predictions:
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood is a biopic about Mr. Rogers. Mr. Rogers is played by Tom Hanks and this sounds like the type of role that could get him his first Oscar nomination since …. well, forever.
Call of the Wild is an adaptation of Jack London’s novel. It apparently features a CGI wolf. It also has a potentially good supporting role for Harrison Ford, who has only one previous nomination to his name.
Fair and Balanced is about the history of Fox News and it was directed by Jay Roach. It sounds terrible but if Vice and Adam McKay could get a nomination just for attacking Dick Cheney, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fair and Balanced manages to do the same. John Lithgow plays Roger Ailes while the never-nominated Malcolm McDowell plays Rupert Murdoch.
Ford v Ferrari is a film about cars and competition and, if it’s a box office success, it sounds like it could pick up some nominations. The film stars Christian Bale and Matt Damon. I placed Damon in the supporting category because he plays Bale’s boss and his character is described as being “eccentric.”
Harriet is a biopic of Harriet Tubman. It just sounds like it should be an Oscar nominee. Cynthia Erivo plays Harriet while Janelle Monae …. well, I’m not sure who she plays. But I’m going to predict she’ll get a supporting actress nomination. What can I say? It’s early in the year and supporting actress is always hard to predict.
The Irishman is directed by Martin Scorsese and it has a cast to die for: Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Harvey Keitel, Anna Paquin, Bobby Cannavale, Ray Romano, and more! The Irishman should also have the full force of Netflix behind it. My one concern is that the film is apparently going to use CGI to “de-age” its cast so that they can play characters who are in their 30s and 40s. If it works, it’ll be great. If it doesn’t, it’s going to be a huge distraction from whatever else is going on in the movie.
The Last Black Man in San Francisco was a big hit at Sundance. Can Joe Talbot get a nomination for his directorial debut? Can Danny Glover score his first ever nomination? We’ll find out!
Little Women is Greta Gerwig’s follow-up to Lady Bird. Previous adaptations of Little Women have done well at the Oscars. I’m predicting acting nominations for Saoirse Ronan and Laura Dern but Meryl Steep is also in this film so she’s definitely a possibility as well. At this point, Meryl could get nominated for appearing in a two-minute video on YouTube.
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is Quentin Taranino’s 9th film. Tarantino’s film usually do well with the Oscars and Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is about Hollywood’s favorite subject, itself. Some would say that Brad Pitt is overdue for an acting win. Margot Robbie, meanwhile, is a rising star and some feel that she should have won for I, Tonya.
Torrance features Ben Affleck in what sounds like an Oscar bait role. Affleck plays an alcoholic who ends up coaching a high school basketball team. Director Gavin O’Connor previously worked wonders with Warrior so Torrance sounds right up his alley.
My Name is Dolemite is a biopic of the comedian and blaxploitation film star, Rudy Ray Moore. Eddie Murphy plays Moore and the role sounds like it could allow him to display both his comedic and dramatic skills. In theory, the Academy loves a comeback.
The Woman In The Window is based on an excellent novel and features Amy Adams as an agoraphobic woman who thinks that she may have witnessed a murder. Adams is definitely a bit overdue for an Oscar.
The Rhythm Section is also based on a novel. While it’s thriller plot doesn’t sound like typical Oscar bait, the film’s release was moved from February to November. That would seem to indicate that Paramount has faith in both it and Blake Lively’s lead performance.
Clemency was another hit at Sundance. Alfre Woodard is an acclaimed actress who has only been twice nominated for an Oscar. A nomination here would honor not just Woodard’s performance but her entire career.
The Kitchen is a crime drama. Tiffany Haddish, who is definitely an up-and-coming star, plays the wife of a Irish mobster who, when her husband is sent to prison, takes over his rackets. It sounds like a good role and there are a lot of people who think Haddish’s performance in Girls Trip was unfairly snubbed.
The Goldfinch is based on a novel by Donna Tartt. Nicole Kidman plays a wealthy widow who adopts the survivor of a terrorist bomber. It just sounds like the type of role for which Kidman would be nominated.
In the end, nobody knows anything. Especially me! We’ll see how all of this plays out over the next few months!
