Lisa’s Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For February


It’s a fool’s errand to try to predict next year’s Oscars nominees this early but we’re all about taking risks here at the Shattered Lens.  So, with that in mind, here is my latest set of monthly predictions.

If you look over these names, you’ll see a lot of familiar ones.  That’s because it’s early in the year and familiarity is really the only thing that a lot of these unreleased films have going for them.  Some of the films mentioned below were hits at Sundance.  From what I’ve read, I really do think Minari could be a contender because, along with being loved by critics, it sounds like it’s very much of the current cultural moment.

But the important thing to remember is that, last year at this time, no one expected Joker to become the film of the year.  No one had even heard of Parasite.  Most people were still predicting the Oscars would be dominated by Harriet.  So, my point is — take this stuff with several grains of salt.

To be honest, I think a lot depends on how the presidential election goes.  If Trump is reelected, I think you’ll see the Academy voting for angry, political films, if just as a way to get back at Trump and the people who voted for him.  (Think about the otherwise baffling love that was previously shown to a movie like Vice.)  The Trial of the Chicago 7 sounds incredibly tedious to me but I could imagine people voting for it and thinking to themselves, “This is so going to piss off the Republicans.”  If Trump is defeated, I imagine the Academy will be a bit more upbeat in their selections.

If you want to see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for January here!    (It’s only been a month so my thinking hasn’t really evolved at all.  Still, we could always use the clicks.)

Best Picture

Dune

Happiest Season

Hillybilly Elegy

Ironbark

Minari

News of the World

Respect

Stillwater

The Trial of the Chicago 7

West Side Story

Best Director

Isaac Lee Chung for Minari

Paul Greengrass for News of the World

Ron Howard for Hillybilly Elegy

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch in Ironbark

Matt Damon in Stillwater

Tom Hanks in News of the World

Anthony Hopkins in The Father

Will Smith in King Richard

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman in The Father

Clare Dunne in Herself

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Angelina Jolie in Those Who Wish Me Dead

Best Supporting Actor

Bo Hopkins in Hillbilly Elegy

Merab Ninidze in Ironbark

Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7

Forest Whitaker in Respect

Steven Yeun in Minari

Best Supporting Actress

Abigail Breslin in Stillwater

Glenn Close in Hillybilly Elegy

Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark

Mary Steenburgen in Happiest Season

Helena Zengel in News of the World

Lisa’s Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way Too Early Oscar Predictions for January


It’s a new year and that means that it’s once again time for me to do something spectacularly stupid.

Below, you’ll find a list of Oscar predictions.  However, this is not a list of what I think will be nominated on January 13th.  No, instead, these are my predictions for the upcoming year.  This the first installment of my monthly predictions for which 2020 films will be nominated next year at this time.

Just in case it’s not already obvious how foolish this is, consider the following: Last year, at this time, no one had heard of Parasite.  Maybe a handful of people knew that Noah Baumbach’s next film was going to be called Marriage Story.  There were vague rumors about 1917 and there were still serious doubts as to whether Scorsese would ever finish putting together The Irishman.  In short, trying to predict the Oscars 12 months out is impossible.

Needless to say, I haven’t seen a single one of these films listed below so I can’t tell you one way or the other whether or not they’re going to set the world on fire.  Instead, what is listed below is a combination of random guesses and my own gut feelings.  You’ll notice that there are a lot of big names listed, Spielberg, Anthony Hopkins, Ron Howard, and Glenn Close.  Yes, all of them could very well be Oscar contenders.  At the same time, they’re all also a known quantity.  They’ve all got a good track record with the Academy and, as of right now, that’s all that I have to go on.

You may also notice that I’ve listed several films that will, in just a few weeks, be playing at the Sundance Film Festival.  Again, it’s not that I know anything about these films that the rest of the world doesn’t.  Instead, it’s simply a case of I looked at the list of Sundance films, I read the plots, and a few times I said, “That sounds like it could potentially be a contender.”  After all, it seems like at least one nominee comes out of Sundance every year.  Why shouldn’t it happen again?

My point is that you shouldn’t take these predictions too seriously.  Some of the films and performers below may be nominated.  Some definitely will not be.  But, next year, we will at least be able to look back at this list and have a laugh!

So, without further ado, here are my Oscar predictions for January!

Best Picture

Dune

Hillbilly Elegy

The Many Saints of Newark

Minari

News of the World

Respect

Tenet

The Personal History of David Copperfield

The Trial of the Chicago 7

West Side Story

Best Director

Paul Greengrass for News of the World

Ron Howard for Hillbilly Elegy

Christopher Nolan for Tenet

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Bernstein

Tom Hanks in News of the World

Lance Henriksen in Falling

Anthony Hopkins in The Father

Michael Keaton in Worth

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy

Glenn Close in Four Good Days

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Elisabeth Moss in Shirley

Amy Ryan in Lost Girls

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in The Last Thing He Wanted

Richard E. Grant in Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7

Forest Whitaker in Respect

Steven Yeun in Minari

Best Supporting Actress

Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy

Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark

Tilda Swinton in The Personal Life of David Copperfield

Marisa Tomei in The King of Staten Island

Helena Zengel in News of the World

The Boston Society Of Film Critics Honors If Beale Street Could Talk and Lynne Ramsay!


Earlier today, the Boston Society of Film Critics announced their picks for the best of 2018.  Along with selecting If Beale Street Could Talk as best picture, they also gave best director to You Were Never Really Here‘s Lynne Ramsay.

Best Film: If Beale Street Could Talk
Runner-up: Shoplifters

Best Director: Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
Runner-up: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Best Actor: John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
Runner-up: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

Best Actress: Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Runner-up: Sakura Ando (Shoplifters)

Best Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Runners-up (tie): Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Steven Yeun (Burning)

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Runner-up: J. Smith-Cameron (Nancy)

Best Ensemble: Shoplifters
Runner-up: The Favourite

Best Screenplay: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Runner-up: Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)

Best Documentary: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Runner-up: Three Identical Strangers

Best Animated Film: Isle of Dogs
Runner-up: Ralph Breaks the Internet

Best Foreign Language Film: Shoplifters
Runner-up: Cold War

Best New Filmmaker: Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Runner-up: Ari Aster (Hereditary)

Best Cinematography: Alfonso Cuarón (ROMA)
Runner-up: Lukasz Zal (Cold War)

Best Editing: Tom Cross (First Man)
Runner-up: Bob Murawski and Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)

Best Original Score: Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Runner-up: Justin Hurwitz (First Man) and Jonny Greenwood (You Were Never Really Here)

The Vancouver Film Critics Circle Announce Their Nominations For The Best of 2018!


On Friday, the Vancouver Film Critics Circle announced their nominations for the best of 2018!

Best Picture
The Favourite
First Reformed
Roma

Best Actor, Male
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice

Best Actor, Female
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Best Supporting Actor, Male
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Peter Bogdanovich, The Other Side of the Wind
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Steven Yeun, Burning

Best Supporting Actor, Female
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man

Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Best Screenplay
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Foreign Language Film
Burning
Roma
Shoplifters

Best Documentary
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

The Toronto Film Critics Association Honors ROMA!


The word out of Canada is that, earlier today, the Toronto Film Critics Association met and picked ROMA as the best film of 2018!  Just like the L.A. Critics, Toronto picked Steven Yeun for best supporting actor, for his work in Burning.

Here’s a full list of the winners in Toronto!

Best Picture: ROMA
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón (ROMA)
Best Actor: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Best Actress: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Best Supporting Actor: Steven Yeun (Burning)
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Screenplay: The Favourite and First Reformed (tie)
Best Documentary: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Best Animated Feature: Isle of Dogs
Best Foreign Language Film: Burning
Best First Feature: Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)

Love you, Canada!

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association Embrace Roma, Debra Granik, and Steven Yeun!


The Los Angeles Film Critics Association announced their picks for the best of 2018 earlier today and guess who picked up their award for Best Supporting Actor?

Steven Yeun!

That’s right.  As sad as we all were to see Glenn brutally murdered on The Walking Dead, at least we can find some happiness in the fact that Steven Yeun’s career has prospered since leaving the show.  Yeun won the LAFCFA’s Best Supporting Actor prize for his role in the Korean film, Burning.  The LAFCA liked Burning quite a bit actually.  It also came in second for the Best Picture prize, an award that was won by Roma.

Finally, Debra Granik won Best Director for her work on Leave No Trace, making her the first woman to win the directing prize of a major critics group this year.

Here are the winners!

Best Picture – ROMA
Runner up: Burning

Best Director – Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Runner up: Alfonso Cuarón (ROMA)

Best Actor – Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Runner up: Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)

Best Actress – Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Runner up: Toni Collette (Hereditary)

Best Supporting Actor – Steven Yeun (Burning)
Runner up: Hugh Grant (Paddington 2)

Best Supporting Actress – Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Runner up: Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

Best Screenplay – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Runner up: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite)

Best Production Design – Hannah Beachler (Black Panther)
Runner up: Fiona Crombie (The Favourite)

Best Editing –  Joshua Altman and Bing Liu (Minding the Gap)
Runner up: Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough (ROMA)

Best Cinematography – Alfonso Cuarón (ROMA)
Runner up: James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Music Score – Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Runner up: Justin Hurwitz (First Man)

Best Foreign Language Film – Burning and Shoplifters (tie)

Best Documentary/Non-Fiction Film – Shirkers
Runner up: Minding the Gap

Best Animation – Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
Runner up: Incredibles 2

New Generation – Chloé Zhao (The Rider)

Special CitationThe Other Side of the Wind

Douglas Edwards Independent/Experimental Film/Video – Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson and Guy Maddin (The Green Fog)

Career Achievement (previously announced) – Hayao Miyazaki

Here Are The Chicago Film Critics Association Nominations For 2018!


On Friday, the Chicago Film Critics Association announced their nominations for the best of 2018!  The winners will be announced on Saturday night.

Here are the nominees!

BEST PICTURE
The Favourite
First Reformed
Hereditary
Roma
A Star is Born

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Steven Yeun, Burning

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Zoe Kazan, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman by Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? by Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty
The Death of Stalin by Armando Iannucci, David Schneider & Ian Martin
If Beale Street Could Talk by Barry Jenkins
A Star is Born by Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade by Bo Burnham
The Favourite by Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara
First Reformed by Paul Schrader
Roma by Alfonso Cuaron
Vice by Adam McKay

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Ruben Brandt: Collector
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters

BEST ART DIRECTION
Annihilation
Black Panther
The Favourite
Paddington 2
Roma

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War – Lukasz Zal
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
First Man – Linus Sandgren
If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton
Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

BEST EDITING
First Man
The Other Side of the Wind
Roma
Widows
You Were Never Really Here

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
First Man – Justin Hurwitz
If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
Mandy – Johan Johannson
Suspiria – Thom Yorke
You Were Never Really Here – Jonny Greenwood

BEST USE OF VISUAL EFFECTS
Annihilation
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Paddington 2

MOST PROMISING FILMMAKER
Ari Aster, Hereditary
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Bing Liu, Minding the Gap
Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You

MOST PROMISING PERFORMER
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman & Monsters and Men