Normally, this is when I would be talking about the actual Oscar nominations as opposed to the hypothetical ones but, due to the whole COVID thing, the 2020 Oscar nominations (or really, the 2020-2021 Oscar nominations since neither Nomadland nor Minari is really a 2020 film as far as I’m concerned) will not be announced until March.
So, guess what?
It’s that time of the month again!
It’s time for me to present my own personal predictions of what will eventually be nominated. With some of the critics groups giving out awards over the past two months, the Oscar picture is definitely a bit clearer. Still, it’s not as clear as it’s going to be by the end of next week. February is going to see the Golden Globes and the guilds announcing their nominees. The Globes and the guilds are far more reliable than the critics groups when it comes to serving as Oscar precursors.
Still, I feel somewhat confident about the nominations below. So, take a look and be sure to check out my previous predictions for January (2020), February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, and December!
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
(I’m going out on a limb with Borat, I know. My theory is that the same people who nominated Vice for a host of Oscars aren’t going to be able to resist the temptation to give Trump the finger at least one more time.)
Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
(Again, I know that I’m going out on a limb with Vinterberg but if there’s ever a year that’s going to have a totally surprising and unexpected nomination, it’s going to be this year. Another Round’s been getting a lot of attention and a lot of acclaim. Since 2014, despite the expanded best picture lineup, two directors have still managed to get nominated without their film also getting a picture nod. Bennett Miller was nominated for Foxcatcher. Paweł Pawlikowski was nominated for Cold War. I’m going to go ahead and predict that Vinterberg will join them for Another Round.)
Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yeun in Minari
(I’ve pretty much been predicting this line-up for a while now. I think Minari will be popular enough with the Academy that Steven Yeun will pick up a nomination.)
Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sidney Flanigan in Never Rarely Sometimes Often
Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
(Once again, this is a lineup that I’ve been predicting for a while now. I’m adding Sidney Flanigan to my predictions because of the strength she’s shown with the critics. I nearly replaced her with Meryl Streep for The Prom but my instincts, for whatever they’re worth, say Flanigan.)
Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray in On The Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night In Miami
Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
(I do think Chadwick Boseman is going to receive two posthumous acting nominations in the same year. That’s the way the momentum is going and his passing adds an extra poignancy to his Da 5 Bloods performance that wouldn’t be there otherwise. If I had to guess, I’d say that this is the Oscar that Boseman is going to win.)
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman in The Father
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
(I know some people aren’t sure that the Academy is going to go as crazy for Bakalova as some of the critics have. But I think the same Academy that nominated Vice is going to be open to considering a performance from the Borat sequel, especially one that embarrassed Rudy Giuliani.)
We’ll see whether or not I’m correct about any of these predictions in March!