To do Oscar predictions during a pandemic or not?
That’s the question.
Erik Anderson at Awards Watch announced on twitter that he’s not doing his monthly Oscar predictions for April and May. (He is, however, focusing on the Emmys so be sure to visit the site and check out his thoughts!) Over at Clayton Davis’s Awards Circuit, the Oscar predictions have been taken down and replaced by an ominous (though definitely needed) counter of how many people are currently infected with the Coranavirus. As of right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Are theaters even going to reopen before the year ends and if they do reopen, will people be willing to run the risk of going outside to see a movie? So many of the big films of 2020 have been moved back to 2021 that one could legitimately wonder whether any of the big “Oscar” films are even going to come out this year. Most ominously, for me, is that we could get hit by a second wave of the Coronavirus. It’s easy to imagine a situation where theaters reopen in the summer and, regardless of how business goes, are forced to close again in December.
The Academy is aware that the future is uncertain. Earlier this week, they loosened the eligibility rules. Films that premiere on VOD or a streaming service are now eligible for Oscar consideration as long as it can been proven that the film would have also gotten a theatrical release if not for the pandemic. I’m not sure how exactly that could be proven but it does show that the Academy is, as of now, planning to give out some Oscars next February.
(Of course, just because the rules have been temporarily loosened, that doesn’t mean that every studio and director is going to want to put their huge blockbusters out on Prime or Netflix or VOD. I doubt Spielberg wants to premiere West Side Story in your living room.)
So, for that reason, I’m going to continue to do my monthly Oscar predictions. Needless to say, these are even more random than usual. The predictions below are also being made on the assumption that theaters will be open in November, December, and January. Again, there are no guarantees, other than perhaps Netflix.
So, without further ado, here are my predictions. Also, be sure to check out my predictions from January, February, and March!
News of the World
On The Rocks
West Side Story
Sofia Coppola for On The Rocks
Paul Greengrass for News of the World
Ron Howard for Hillbilly Elegy
Francis Lee for Ammonite
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Ben Affleck in The Way Back
Tom Hanks in News of the World
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Bill Murray in On The Rocks
Gary Oldman in Mank
Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Sofia Loren in The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Kate Winslet in Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Tom Burke in Mank
Bo Hopkins in Hillybilly Elegy
Forest Whitaker in Respect
Steve Yeun in Minari
Best Supporting Actress
Glen Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Helena Zengel in News of the World
We’ll see what happens. Right now, your guess is as good as mine. In fact, your guess is probably better.
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