Lisa’s Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way, Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For February

It’s a fool’s errand to try to predict next year’s Oscars nominees this early but we’re all about taking risks here at the Shattered Lens. So, with that in mind, here is my latest set of monthly predictions.

If you look over these names, you’ll see a lot of familiar ones. That’s because it’s early in the year and familiarity is really the only thing that a lot of these unreleased films have going for them. Some of the films mentioned below were hits at Sundance. From what I’ve read, I really do think Minari could be a contender because, along with being loved by critics, it sounds like it’s very much of the current cultural moment.

But the important thing to remember is that, last year at this time, no one expected Joker to become the film of the year. No one had even heard of Parasite. Most people were still predicting the Oscars would be dominated by Harriet. So, my point is — take this stuff with several grains of salt.

To be honest, I think a lot depends on how the presidential election goes. If Trump is reelected, I think you’ll see the Academy voting for angry, political films, if just as a way to get back at Trump and the people who voted for him. (Think about the otherwise baffling love that was previously shown to a movie like Vice.) The Trial of the Chicago 7 sounds incredibly tedious to me but I could imagine people voting for it and thinking to themselves, “This is so going to piss off the Republicans.” If Trump is defeated, I imagine the Academy will be a bit more upbeat in their selections.

If you want to see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for January here! (It’s only been a month so my thinking hasn’t really evolved at all. Still, we could always use the clicks.)

Best Picture

Dune

Happiest Season

Hillybilly Elegy

Ironbark

Minari

News of the World

Respect

Stillwater

The Trial of the Chicago 7

West Side Story

Best Director