The 2020 Oscar nominations are finally going to be announced on March 15th and then the Oscars themselves are going to be awarded at the end of April. To be honest, we should call these the 2020-2021 Oscars because I refuse to think of Nomadland, Minari, or The Father as being 2020 films. Because of the extended eligibility window, they’re all Oscar-eligible but still….
That means that it’s time for me to make my final Oscar predictions for this latest awards cycle. Last night, The Golden Globes cleared up a few races and suggested that a few others are still in a state of flux. Of the three big surprise winners from last night (Andra Day, Jodie Foster, and Rosamund Pike) Day seems to be the most likely to benefit from her victory. I also think that Foster might benefit as well, just because she’s Jodie Foster and she doesn’t appear in a lot of films nowadays. I’m also willing to say that, based on his getting a GG nom and a SAG nom, I think Jared Leto has a better chance than some might realize of picking up another Oscar nomination.
What about Glenn Close? On the one hand, Close has never won an Oscar and she gives a very awards baity performance in Hillbilly Elegy. On the other hand, Hillbilly Elegy was critically-blasted and both the film and Close’s performance were included on the Razzie longlist, which was released earlier today. (The Razzies suck but that’s a topic for another post.) I would feel better about Close’s chances if she had won a Golden Globe last night but I’m still inclined to include her in my predictions.
(To be honest, up until Close lost, I still thought there was a chance that Hillbilly Elegy could pick up an Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close-style best picture nomination, the type of nomination that comes as a result of voters watching a critically lambasted film for one performance and saying, “Well, that wasn’t as bad as everyone says!”)
Finally, I’m going to continue to predict a surprise Best Picture nomination for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, just because it’ll be another chance for the same voters who nominated Vice to express their feelings about Donald Trump and Rudy Guiliani.
If you want to see how my thinking has evolved over this long awards season, check out my predictions for January (2020), February (2020), March (2020, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, and January (2021)!
Here are my final predictions:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
One Night In Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
(I’m predicting 9 best picture nominees. I’m looking forward to the Academy going back to having a set number of best picture nominees. It breaks my heart not to include First Cow and Sound of Metal among my predicted nominees.)
Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Regina King for One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin for Mank
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Gary Oldman in Mank
Steven Yeun in Minari
Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman in Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto in The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night In Miami
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Youn Yuh-jung in Minari
We’ll find out how right or wrong I am on March 15th!
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