
It’s that time of the month again! It’s time for me to go out on a limb and attempt to predict what will be nominated for the Oscars. Of course, trying to do this early in the year is a fool’s errand. We all know that. That’s actually part of the fun.
As of right now, the list below is full of familiar names, a few films that were acclaimed at Sundance, and a few random guesses. A lot of the predicted nominees are films that were expected to be Oscar contenders last year but which were delayed due to the pandemic. (Looking at you, West Side Story.) Some of them are contenders that I personally would just like to see nominated, even though it probably won’t happen. (I’m not going to jinx anything by pointing out which nomination about which I’m specifically thinking. You’ll probably be able to guess for yourself.) Over the next few months, the Oscar picture will become a bit clearer. Many of the contenders listed below will be forgotten about. Meanwhile, new contenders will emerge. My point is, take it all with a grain of salt and don’t put down any money just yet.
Two big developments to keep in mind:
First off, the Academy is officially going back to having a set a number of nominees. Next year, ten films will be nominated for best picture. Not seven. Not nine. Ten. Personally, I’m thrilled by this development. Nothing irritated me more than when they used to announce those weird, seven-picture lineups. (As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t like odd numbers.)
Secondly, the Academy is going back to the old eligibility dates. Yay! What that means is that only films that are released between March and the end of this year will be eligible to compete for the Oscars. More importantly, it means that the best film of 2021 will not be released in 2022.
Anyway, here are my predictions for this month! Don’t take them too seriously. If you want to see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April.
Best Picture
CODA
The Duke
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
A Journal for Jordan
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Soggy Bottom
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom
Guillermo Del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Ridley Scott for House of Gucci
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan
Best Actor
Jim Broadbent in The Duke
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Michael B. Jordan in A Journal For Jordan
Will Smith in King Richard
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
Tessa Thompson in Passing
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom
Adam Driver in The Last Duel
Al Pacino in House of Gucci
Forest Whitaker in Respect
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Ruth Negga in Passing
