Well, here we are. Another awards season is wrapping up. Almost all of the regional critic groups have announced their picks for the best of 2021. The Guilds have spoken. The front runners have emerged. Both Don’t Look Up and Being the Ricardos have weathered bad reviews and become probable Oscar nominees. If nothing else, I’ll have something to complain about for the next three or four months. At the same time, Power of the Dog has emerged as the critical favorite. Belfast seems to be the populist favorite. West Side Story is the big production that has to be nominated, even though no one seems to feel particularly strongly about it one way or the other. Dune is the blockbuster that the Academy is hoping will cause people to tune into the ceremony, especially now that it appears that the Spider-Man Oscar campaign has fizzled. Don’t Look Up is the “Let’s piss off the cons” nominee. Being the Ricardos is this year’s “Wow, our industry really is the best” nominee. Personally, I’m going to view tick, tick….Boom! as being the most likely dark horse to pull off an upset.
So, with all that in mind, here’s my last set of 2021 Oscar predictions.
Looking at the list below, I have to say that we certainly have a good race this year. It’s interesting that, this year, only films that were released between March and the end of December were eligible for the Oscars. 2021 was a very good year for movies! Not only do we have the nominees below but we also had films like The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah, both of which are 2021 films as far as I’m concerned.
(Consider this. If the Oscars had kept the eligibility window the same last year instead of extending it to accommodate films delayed by the pandemic, Anthony Hopkins would probably be the Best Actor front runner right now and the Academy probably would have given Chadwick Boseman a posthumous Best Actor award last April. I also imagine that Jesse Plemons would have a better chance of picking up a supporting actor nomination if the members of the Academy were currently screening both The Power of the Dog and Judas and the Black Messiah at the same time.)
The Oscar nominations will be announced on February 8th. Below are my predictions!
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up
Lin-Manuel Miranda for tick, tick …. Boom!
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Nicolas Cage in Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield in tick, tick….Boom!
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Nicole Kidman in Being the Riacardos
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizzia
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Troy Kostur in CODA
Jared Leto in House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe in Belfast
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
Ruth Negga in Passing