Here are my Oscar predictions for April! As always, when it’s this early in the year, I recommend taking all of these with a grain of salt. At this point, the only thing that anyone knows for sure is that it’s safe to remove Jonathan Majors and Magazine Dreams from any list of predictions.
Now that the 2022 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2023 Oscars!
Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now. I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year. And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them. I mean, Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence. For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner. Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews. Audiences stayed away. The film ended up with one technical nomination.
My point is that no one knows anything. As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.
So, you may be asking, how did I come up with the nominees below? For the most part, I guessed. A few of them I went with because of the people who made the film. Though shooting has wrapped, Ferrari might not even be released this year but it’s a Michael Mann film that stars Adam Driver so, for now, I have to include it. Of course, I had to include Scorsese and Killers of theFlower Moon.Asteroid City is there because the Academy embraced Wes Anderson once and it could always happen again. FairPlay and Magazine Dreams‘s Jonathan Majors are listed because the Sundance Film Festival is still a recent memory. Maestro is there because the Academy seems like to Bradley Cooper. Dune Part Two and Oppenheimer are there because Film Twitter is convinced that they will be.
In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions. It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess. And for now, these are my guesses. A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh. Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.
We talk a lot about which performers and directors have been snubbed at Oscar time.
For movie lovers, that’s an important subject. We all know that great actors like Peter O’Toole, Cary Grant, Albert Finney, and far too many others all went to their graves with several nominations but not a single competitive Oscar to their name. Just a few years ago, Kirk Douglas died at the age of 103 without having ever won a competitive Oscar. We always talk about how certain actors are overdue for their first Oscar but sometimes we forget that being overdue doesn’t always translate into an eventual win. Sometimes, it translates into people watching a movie on TCM and saying, “How did that person never win an Oscar in their lifetime?”
With that in mind, here are 6 actors who I sincerely hope will have won their first Oscar by the time that 2033 rolls around:
Caleb Landry Jones
Caleb Landry Jones is one of the masters of playing the type of eccentric characters who can be both dangerous and yet oddly sympathetic. (One always get the feeling that Jonses’s characters are haunted by demons that they simply cannot control.) He’s like a Texas-version of Ben Foster. This year, he deserved a nomination for his devastating work in Nitram. Hopefully, he’ll get that first nomination and his first Oscar in the years to come.
2. Steve Carell
Steve Carell was nominated for Best Actor for playing against type in Foxcatcher. I’m always a little bit surprised to be reminded that Foxcatcher is, to date, Carell’s only Oscar nomination. Part of the problem for Carell is that he’s so well-known for being a comedic actor that it’s easy to forget that he can handle dramatic roles as well. (The Academy still has a bias against comedy.) Another part of the problem is that some of Carell’s best performances have been in films that were otherwise underwhelming, like Beautiful Boy. Here’s hoping that Carell finally finds the right role and the Academy takes notice. By most accounts, he is one of the nicest guys in the business and I’m sure his acceptance speech would bring us all to tears.
3. Jesse Plemons
The heir to Philip Seymour Hoffman received his first Oscar nomination for The Power of the Dog. He didn’t win but at least the Academy acknowledged that Plemons is one of the best character actors around. This year, he has a starring role in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Though most of the early publicity has focused on Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, it’s said that Plemons is actually the film’s main character so it will be interesting to see if the Academy again takes notice.
4. Matt Damon
Matt Damon actually does have an Oscar, for co-writing Good Will Hunting. Still, it seems odd that Damon has yet to pick up an Oscar for acting. It seems even stranger that he’s only been nominated three times, for Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian. (I will still always be amazed that Damon wasn’t even nominated for Steven Soderbergh’s last truly good film, The Informant.) There’s strong buzz around Air, though the film’s April release might mean that it’ll be out of the awards conversation by the time the precursor season starts in December.
5. Paul Dano
Paul Dano’s another really good actor who has somehow never been nominated, not even for The Fabelmans! That said, it’s hard not to believe that Dano will be honored more sooner than later.
6. Brendan Gleeson
Gleeson actually could be an Oscar winner by the end of tonight. If not, I hope he gets another chance soon. He’s one of the best character actors around and it’s somewhat amazing that his nomination for The Banshees of Inisherin, while being very deserved, was also the first of his career.
Ben Affleck directs and Matt Damon stars in this upcoming film about the effort to get Michael Jordan to wear a pair of shoes. Here’s the Super Bowl spot!
First released in 2002, Gerry tells the story of two men named Gerry, played by Matt Damon and Casey Affleck.
When we first see the two Gerrys, they’re in a car and they are driving through the desert. Neither one is speaking but they both have oddly determined looks on their faces. When they pull off to the side of the road, they talk about how they are finally going to hike the wilderness trail and see “the thing” at the end of it. They start to hike. In order to avoid a vacationing family, they step off of the trail. Soon, they are lost in the desert.
The audience doesn’t learn much about either one of the men named Gerry. It’s obvious that they’ve known each other for a while and that they have a close relationship but it’s never stated how they met or what they do with their time when they’re not lost in the desert. Nothing is learned about their family or their jobs or their significant others. Matt Damon’s Gerry seems to be the more confident of the two. Casey Affleck’s Gerry seems to be prone to pessimism. Damon’s Gerry tries to figure out the best way to find the highway. Affleck’s Gerry climbs to the top of a rock and can’t figure out how to get down. It’s tempting to try to use how the men react to being lost as a way to imagine what type of lives the two men lead outside of the desert but in the end, their lives in the real world are no longer important. What’s important is that they are both now lost in the desert, walking under the burning sun and suffering from dehydration.
The film follows Affleck and Damon as they go from being amused at being lost to being desperate to be found. The men go from joking to barely speaking at all. When they first get lost, they climb to the top of a mountain to see if they can spot the path back to the civilization. Soon, though, all they can do is keep walking forward and hope that they stumble across the highway. Interestingly, the more lost the men become, the most beautiful the desert seems. The mountains are often so majestic and strikingly formed that it becomes easier and easier to overlook the two men walking near them.
As we follow the two men, it’s tempting to wonder just why exactly they ended up getting lost. Are they being punished for trying to conquer nature or was it just a case of random bad luck that led to them going in the wrong direction? Is there a greater hand of fate guiding the Gerrys or are they responsible for their own misfortunes? Does the tragedy at the heart of Gerry truly mean anything or is it just one of those things that people try to invest with deeper meaning because otherwise, they would be forced to admit just insignificant their lives are in the grand scheme of things? Is there even a grand scheme of things? These are questions that Gerry asks but doesn’t necessarily question. The film ends with a cut to a blue screen, which is perhaps an homage to Blue, Derek Jarman’s 1993 meditation on life and death. Like Jarman’s film, Gerry is meditation that searches for answers but admits that they may not be out there.
Gerry was directed by Gus Van Sant, an experimental director who also has a side gig directing mainstream studio films. Gerry is a bit of an interesting hybrid. On the one hand, the format is definitely experimental and Van Sant often goes out of his way to alienate the audience. On the other hand, the film itself is an example of the power of old-fashioned movie star charisma. Most people who watch this film will watch because it features Matt Damon and Casey Affleck. Damon and Affleck are the reason why most viewers will be willing to tolerate a 7-minute shot of the two Gerrys stumbling through the desert. Would the viewer still care about the Gerrys if they were played by the two unknowns who Van Sant cast as the school shooters in Elephant?
Gerry may be an enigmatic and visually striking film that is full of intriguing questions that can probably never be answered but, in the end, the film does make one thing very clear. Never underestimate the importance of casting a star.
I finally watched Stillwater a few weeks ago. Stillwater, as you remember, was originally meant to come out in 2019 but the release date got moved to November of 2020, presumably so it could be an Oscar contender and also so it could come out just in time to provide some cinematic commentary on the presidential election. However, due to the COVID lockdowns, the release date got moved back to 2021. It was finally released on July 30th, 2021 and it was briefly the center of some controversy before everyone forgot that the movie existed.
Stillwater tells the story of Bill Baker (Matt Damon) and his daughter, Allison (Abigail Breslin). Bill is a plain-spoken construction worker from Oklahoma. He drives a pickup truck. He always wears a baseball cap. He speaks in the deep accent of the American midwest. He says grace before eating. He probably listens to country music and Kid Rock. Though he says at one point that he can’t vote because he has a criminal record, Bill would probably have voted for Trump if he had been allowed to vote (hence, the controversy when the film was finally released).
His daughter, Allison (Abigail Breslin), left Oklahoma so that she could attend school in France and, presumably, so she could get away from her father. Allison’s girlfriend, Lina, was murdered in France and Allison was convicted of the crime. Now, she’s sitting in prison while still protesting her innocence. Every few weeks, Bill boards a plane and flies to France. He gives Allison supplies, like an Oklahoma University sweatshirt. He also tries to convince the authorities to reopen her case. Allison swears that there is evidence that will exonerate her. When Bill, who doesn’t even speak French, realizes that he will never be able to convince the authorities to reopen the case, he decides to do some investigating on his own.
Bill moves to France. He lives with and eventually falls in love with an actress named Virginie (Camille Cottin). He becomes a surrogate father to Virginie’s young daughter. Virginie also serves as Bill’s translator as he searches for a witness who can prove that Allison is innocent. Virginie gets upset when Bill suspects that the murderer might have been a refugee from the Middle East. When one potential witness uses racial slurs, Virginie refuses to translate anything that he says. When she explains to Bill why she won’t talk to the man, Bill replies that he deals with people like that all the time …. back in the United States. When Virginie’s cultured friends meet Bill, they all dismiss him as being an ugly American and demand to know why he doesn’t like immigrants.
Yes, you guessed it. Stillwater isn’t just a murder mystery. It’s also meant to make a statement about America’s place in the world, with Bill standing in for the country during the age of Trump. Bill is the type of American that Europeans tend to hate and Bill’s efforts to prove his daughter’s innocence lead to him doing some things that have obvious parallels with the techniques used by CIA interrogators during the War on Terror. “How far would you go to protect your family? How far would you go to protect your country?” the film seems to be asking. It’s not an irrelevant question but the film approaches it in too heavy-handed of a manner to really be effective. Matt Damon might as well have spent the entire film shouting, “I’m an American!” like Dennis Hopper did in Apocalypse Now. That would have actually be kind of fun.
For someone who has given so many good performance in the past (and who was excellent in The Last Duel), Matt Damon gives a curiously detached performance as Bill. One gets the feeling that Damon was not particularly interested in emotionally connecting with the role of someone who has probably never seen a Matt Damon movie and who would certainly never vote for any of the candidates that Matt Damon has ever endorsed. (One can just imagine the scene if Will Hunting tried to convince Bill Baker to read anything by Howard Zinn.) Since Damon doesn’t seem to know how to suggest that Bill has any sort of inner life, he instead concentrates on trying to perfect Bill’s accent. And yet, even there, the film is inconsistent. It takes more to sound like your from Oklahoma than just lowering your voice and saying, “Yeah” a lot. Watching the film, I could help but think that Mark Wahlberg or even Ben Affleck would have been a bit better cast as Bill. Neither one of them sounds like they’re from Oklahoma, of course. But they do have the sort of blue collar attitude that Damon was lacking.
As for Abigail Breslin, she’s not really given much of a role to play. Every 15 minutes or so, she steps into a prison meeting room and berates her father for not getting her out of jail. Until that last few minutes of the film, that’s pretty much the extent of her role. Breslin is playing a character who is obviously meant to bring to mind Amanda Knox. The real-life Knox didn’t particularly appreciate this and, having watched the film, I have to say that Knox was more than justified in being offended. Even though the film is fictionalized, enough of the details of Allison’s case correspond to the details of Amanda Knox’s case that it’s impossible to watch the film without thinking of Knox. Beyond that, though, Allison is an inconsistently written character. The film’s final twist lacks power precisely because we really don’t know anything about Allison or what her relationship with her father was like before she was arrested.
As a director, Tom McCarthy uses the same flat visual style that made Spotlight one of the least interesting films to ever win best picture. Tonally, the film is all over the place. It starts out as a murder mystery before becoming a romance, and then suddenly, it takes a turn into Taken territory. It ends on an annoyingly ambiguous note, meant to leave the audience to wonder whether or not everything that Bill went though was actually worth it. If Bill and Allison felt like real characters, the ending may have worked but since they don’t, the ending just leaves you wondering whether it was worth spending over two hours to reach this point.
Anyway, if you want to see a better Damon performance, I suggest checking out Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel. If you want to see a better film for director Tom McCarthy, I suggest tracking down 2011’s Win Win, a charming film that feels authentic in a way that Stillwater never quite does.
Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel has been a project that has had several projected release dates. It was originally expected to be a 2020 Oscar contender but, like many highly anticipated films, it kept getting moved back due to the Coronavirus pandemic. That was unfortunately, though I am ultimately glad that the film waited for the theaters as opposed to going the streaming route. One thing that all Ridley Scott films, good or bad, have in common is that they’re best viewed on a big screen.
This October, we should finally get to see The Last Duel. The film tells a a true story and features such Oscar-friendly actors as Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, and Adam Driver. Though Gladiator may have won best picture, Ridley Scott is still in the hunt for his first directing win. This year, he not only has The Last Duel in the hunt but he’s also going to have House ofGucci, featuring Lady Gaga, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons, and, once again, Adam Driver.
The trailer for TheLast Duel was released today. From what I saw on social media, the reaction was a bit mixed, with many pointing out that the visuals had a bit of a washed-out look to them. Indeed, watching the trailer, one wonders if it ever stopped snowing in 14th century France. Personally, though, I’m a little bit more concerned with Ben Affleck’s hair. Adam Driver and Matt Damon are usually well-cast in period films but, in the past, Ben Affleck has always come across like he can’t wait to catch the next train back to Boston. That said, there was a lot about the trailer that I did like. The sets look impressive and it really does seem like the type of story that usually brings out the best in Ridley Scott as a director.
Plus, I have to say that I really like the film’s poster, which has something of a Ken Russell feel to it. If anything, the poster actually has me more excited about seeing the film than the trailer does.
With all of that said and in mind, here’s the trailer for Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel!
Stillwater is a film that I’ve been hearing about for a while. It was directed by Tom McCarthy, who previously did the Oscar-winning (if subsequently kind of forgotten) Spotlight and it stars Matt Damon as a man who tries to prove that his estranged daughter (Abigail Breslin) is not guilty of the murder for which she’s been convicted.
Originally, it was thought that Stillwater would be done in time for a late 2019 release but ultimately, it got a 2020 release date. But then pandemic occurred and everything got pushed back and, as a result, Stillwater is now set to be released on July 30th.
The trailer finally dropped today and …. well, its looks okay. To be honest, it kind of looks like one of those films that shows up, without much fanfare, on Netflix. But McCarthy’s strongest trait, as a director, has always been his ability to inspire and capture good performances and it looks like Matt Damon is very well-cast in the lead role. I’ve always felt that Matt Damon is one of those actors who is so consistently good that he gets taken granted.
The Oscar nominations for 2020-2021 were finally revealed earlier this month. They weren’t particularly surprising. To be honest, they were kind of boring. But, with those nominations now revealed and the Oscars sets to be awarded at the end of April, that means it’s time to start looking forward to next year!
Of course, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen next year. Most of the films that are scheduled to come out later in 2021 were originally scheduled to come out in 2020. (And they were made in 2018 and 2019, which means the first big releases of 2021 are already dated.) Right now, most of the probable nominees are films that I originally expected to be contenders last year, like Spielberg’s West Side Story and Dune. Needless to say, new contenders will emerge over the next few months. Quite frankly, I’m skeptical of West Side Story because it sounds like the type of project that will bring out all of Spielberg’s worst instincts as a filmmaker. But, until it’s released, it’ll be a contender because he’s Spielberg.
As of right now, we don’t even know what the eligibility window is going to be for the next set of Oscar contenders. Is the Academy going to go back to a December cut-off or are they going to continue to extend the eligibility window. Are we predicting the 2021 Oscars or are we predicting the 2021-2022 Oscars? Again, as of now, we just don’t know. Personally, I’m hoping they return to a December cut-off but I have a feeling that the Academy will disagree.
About the only thing we do know for sure, right now, is that the Academy is going to go back to a set number of nominees. 10 films will be nominated. No more of this maybe 7 or maybe 8 nominees. It’s about time.
Anyway, the list below is based on the assumption that the Academy’s going to go back to the old eligibility window, which means that only films released between the start of March and the end of December will be eligible for Oscar consideration.
It’s also based on the presumption that the Oscars can be predicted this far out. They can’t. But I enjoy making lists and I love the Oscars. Doing these predictions has become a part of my monthly ritual. You know how much I love a good ritual.
So, here are my potentially worthless predictions for what will be nominated next year!
Are we even going to have an Oscar ceremony next year?
Who knows? I hope we do because I think that it would provide some sort of normalcy. Even if everyone chooses not to watch it, at least they’ll have that choice. (People tend to forget how important, psychologically and emotionally, it is for people to have a choice. All of these cheery “We’re all in it together” commercials don’t mean shit if people are feeling imprisoned.) Up until this week, I was pretty confident that we would because COVID-19 was in decline and restrictions were being lifted and things seemed like they were heading in the right direction. (Or, at least, that’s the way it seemed in my part of the world. I know that some people disagreed with my assessment.) Now, we’re in the middle of nation-wide rioting and a divisive presidential election so who knows what’s going to happen with the rest of this year. Will theaters even want to risk reopening before 2021? Will they be able to? The Academy has said that streaming films will qualify this year but how many studios want to release all of their big productions VOD?
I’m going to continue to make my monthly Oscar predictions, though. My reasons are pretty selfish: making them helps to keep me centered. I’m a compulsive scheduler and keeping that schedule (which is really what I’m doing with these monthly predictions) helps me deal with my ADD.
So, with that in mind, here are my Oscar predictions. Take them with a grain of salt. And be sure to check out my previous predictions for January, February, March, and April!
Best Picture
Ammonite
The Father
Hillbilly Elegy
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
Respect
Soul
The Trial of Chicago 7
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Greengrass for News of the World
Ron Howard for Hillbilly Elegy
Francis Lee for Ammonite
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Actor
Matt Damon in Stillwater
Tom Hanks in News of the World
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Bill Murray in On The Rocks
Gary Oldman in Mank
Best Actress
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Angelina Jolie in Those Who Wish Me Dead
Sofia Loren in The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Kate Winslet in Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Tom Burke in Mank
Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
Forest Whitaker in Respect
Steven Yeun in Minari
Best Supporting Actress
Abigail Breslin in Stillwater
Glen Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman in The Father
Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite
Helena Zengel in News of the World
That’s it for this month! Hopefully, next month will bring a bit more clarity.