Yes, it’s time to start this again.
The Oscar nominations for 2020-2021 were finally revealed earlier this month. They weren’t particularly surprising. To be honest, they were kind of boring. But, with those nominations now revealed and the Oscars sets to be awarded at the end of April, that means it’s time to start looking forward to next year!
Of course, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen next year. Most of the films that are scheduled to come out later in 2021 were originally scheduled to come out in 2020. (And they were made in 2018 and 2019, which means the first big releases of 2021 are already dated.) Right now, most of the probable nominees are films that I originally expected to be contenders last year, like Spielberg’s West Side Story and Dune. Needless to say, new contenders will emerge over the next few months. Quite frankly, I’m skeptical of West Side Story because it sounds like the type of project that will bring out all of Spielberg’s worst instincts as a filmmaker. But, until it’s released, it’ll be a contender because he’s Spielberg.
As of right now, we don’t even know what the eligibility window is going to be for the next set of Oscar contenders. Is the Academy going to go back to a December cut-off or are they going to continue to extend the eligibility window. Are we predicting the 2021 Oscars or are we predicting the 2021-2022 Oscars? Again, as of now, we just don’t know. Personally, I’m hoping they return to a December cut-off but I have a feeling that the Academy will disagree.
About the only thing we do know for sure, right now, is that the Academy is going to go back to a set number of nominees. 10 films will be nominated. No more of this maybe 7 or maybe 8 nominees. It’s about time.
Anyway, the list below is based on the assumption that the Academy’s going to go back to the old eligibility window, which means that only films released between the start of March and the end of December will be eligible for Oscar consideration.
It’s also based on the presumption that the Oscars can be predicted this far out. They can’t. But I enjoy making lists and I love the Oscars. Doing these predictions has become a part of my monthly ritual. You know how much I love a good ritual.
So, here are my potentially worthless predictions for what will be nominated next year!
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
In the Heights
The Last Duel
West Side Story
Guillermo Del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Rebecca Hall for Passing
Ridley Scott for House of Gucci
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley
Matt Damon in The Last Duel
Adam Driver in The Last Duel
Will Smith in King Richard
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Tessa Thompson in Passing
Rachel Zegler in West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Daniel Durant in CODA
Jeremy Irons in House of Gucci
Al Pacino in House of Gucci
Forest Whitaker in Respect
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Ruth Negga in Passing