Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For March


Now that the 2022 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2023 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  I mean, Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence.  For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner.  Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews.  Audiences stayed away.  The film ended up with one technical nomination.

My point is that no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

So, you may be asking, how did I come up with the nominees below?  For the most part, I guessed.  A few of them I went with because of the people who made the film.  Though shooting has wrapped, Ferrari might not even be released this year but it’s a Michael Mann film that stars Adam Driver so, for now, I have to include it.  Of course, I had to include Scorsese and Killers of the Flower Moon.  Asteroid City is there because the Academy embraced Wes Anderson once and it could always happen again.  Fair Play and Magazine Dreams‘s Jonathan Majors are listed because the Sundance Film Festival is still a recent memory.  Maestro is there because the Academy seems like to Bradley Cooper.  Dune Part Two and Oppenheimer are there because Film Twitter is convinced that they will be.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

Asteroid City

The Color Purple

Dune Part Two

Fair Play

Ferrari

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Rustin

Best Director

Chloe Domont for Fair Play

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Jonathan Majors in Magazine Dreams

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Emily Blunt in Pain Hustlers

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Julia Roberts in Leave the World Behind

Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Leave The World Behind

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Ethan Hawke in Strange Way Of Life

Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Tantoo Cardinal in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Florence Pugh in Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton in Asteroid City

Here’s What Won At Sundance


To be absolutely honest, I didn’t really pay much attention to the Sundance Film Festival this year.  I may or may not regret that come next December.  Traditionally, it seems that at least a few Oscar contenders begin their journey at Sundance but there’s always a chance that the big Sundance success story could turn out to be something like Zolaa film that gets a lot of festival hype but doesn’t really stick around in anyone’s mind afterwards.

Today, the 2023 Sundance Film Festival’s awards winners were announced.  Time will tell whether or not the films listed below will have much of a life outside of Sundance.  Out of the films honored, Magazine Dreams sounds like the one most likely to break out.

U.S. DRAMATIC COMPETITION
Grand Jury Prize: A.V. Rockwell for “A Thousand and One”
Audience Award: “The Persian Version,” directed by Maryam Keshavarz
Directing: Sing J. Lee for “The Accidental Getaway Driver”
Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award: Maryam Keshavarz for “The Persian Version”
Special Jury Award: Acting: Lio Mehiel for “Mutt”
Special Jury Award: Ensemble: The cast of “Theater Camp,” directed by Molly Gordon and Nick Lieberman.
Special Jury Award: Creative Vision: The creative team of “Magazine Dreams,” directed by Elijah Bynum
Festival Favorite Award: “Radical,” directed by Christopher Zalla

U.S. DOCUMENTARY COMPETITION
Grand Jury Prize: “Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project,” directed by Joe Brewster and Michèle Stephenson
Audience Award: “Beyond Utopia”
Directing: Luke Lorentzen for “A Still Small Voice”
Jonathan Oppenheim Editing Award: Daniela I. Quiroz for “Going Varsity in Mariachi”
Special Jury Award – Clarity of Vision: “The Stroll,” directed by Kristen Lovell & Zackary Drucke
Special Jury Award – Freedom of Expression: “Bad Press

WORLD CINEMA DRAMATIC COMPETITION
Grand Jury Prize: “Scrapper”
Audience Award: “Shayda,” directed by Noora Niasari
Directing Award: Marija Kavtaradze “Slow”
Special Jury Award – Cinematography: Lílis Soares for “Mami Wata”
Special Jury Award – Best Performance: Rosa Marchant, “When It Melts”
Special Jury Award – Creative Vision: Sofia Alaoui for “Animalia”

WORLD CINEMA DOCUMENTARY COMPETITION
Grand Jury Prize: “The Eternal Memory”
Audience Award: “20 Days in Mariupol,” directed and produced by Mstyslav Chernov

Special Jury Prize – Directing: “Smoke, Sauna Sisterhood,” Anna Hints
Special Jury Award – Creative Vision: “Fantastic Machine”
Special Jury Award – Verité: “Against the Tide”

OTHER AWARDS
NEXT Audience Award: “Kokomo City”
NEXT Innovator Award: “Kokomo City”
Alfred P. Sloan Feature Film Prize: “The Pod Generation”

SHORTS
Short Film Grand Jury Prize: “When You Left Me on That Boulevard,” directed by Kayla Abuda Galang
Short Film Jury Award – U.S. Fiction: “Rest Stop,” directed by Crystal Kayiza
Short Film Jury Award – International Fiction: “The Kidnapping of the Bride,” Sophia Mocorrea
Short Film Jury Award – Non-Fiction: “Will You Look at Me,” directed by Shuli Huang.
Short Film Special Jury Award – International Directing: “AliEN0089,” directed by Valeria Hofmann.
Short Film Special Jury Award – U.S Directing: “The Vacation,” directed by Jarreau Carrillo