Well, it’s that time of the month again! Here are my Oscar predictions for July!
Probably the biggest development in the race is that both Barbie and Oppenheimer opened with a bang and established themselves as bona fide contenders, along with Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. I think people were expecting that as far as Oppenheimer was concerned whereas the critical acclaim (and criticism) received by Barbie was a bit more of a surprise. At this point, the debate over whether or not Barbie has a message can only work to the film’s advantage. Working against it is the same thing that kept the Lego movies from showing up in the Best Animated Feature category. For all the discussion about what Barbie means, there’s still the risk of certain members of the Academy viewing it as being an extended commercial. Still, for now, I think both films have to be considered strong contenders.
(What about Sound of Freedom? some may be asking. Regardless of the film’s box office success and what other qualities the film may or may nor have, there’s no way the Academy is going to consider a film about and starring an outspoken Trump supporter.)
If there’s anything that could truly upend the Oscar race, it’s how the studios are going to deal with the SAG/AFTRA strike. For instance, there’s been speculation that some contenders — like The Color Purple — will be pushed back until the strike is settled so that their casts will be able to do publicity for them. It’s totally possible that some of the big contenders that we’re expecting to see in November and December could instead be pushed back to 2024. We’ll see what happens.
Below are my predictions for July. Be sure to also check out my predictions for March and April and May and June!!
Best Picture
The Color Purple
Dune: Part Two
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Greta Gerwig for Barbie
Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne for The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo in Rustin
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Best Actress
Greta Lee in Past Lives
Helen Mirren in Golda
Natalie Portman in May December
Margot Robbie in Barbie
Emma Stone in Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Willem DaFoe in Poor Things
Matt Damon in Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple
Julianne Moore in May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
Through the Shattered Lens 