Film Review: Foxcatcher (dir by Bennett Miller)


What a long and strange trip it has been for Foxcatcher.

Originally, Bennett Miller’s latest film was scheduled to be released at the end of 2013 and it was expected to be a major player in the 2013 Oscar race.  And then it was suddenly announced that Sony Pictures would, instead, wait an extra year to release the film.  Usually, this is a sign of a film that’s not expected to live up to expectations.  (Case in point: The Monuments Men.) But, in this case, it was seen as being the exact opposite.  Sony had such faith in the Oscar prospects of Foxcatcher that they were willing to hold off a year so it wouldn’t get lost in all of the attention that was being given to American Hustle, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave, and Wolf of Wall Street.

And, in many ways, it was a smart move.  Overnight, Foxcatcher went from being that weird movie with Steve Carell to being one of the most anticipated film of 2014.

Then, during the summer, Foxcatcher premiered at Cannes and was one of the hits of the festival.  With the notable exception of the A.V. Club’s A.A. Dowd, the reviewers at Cannes were rapturous in their praise of Foxcatcher.  And, though it failed to win the Palme d’Or, it did win best director for Bennett Miller and it cemented it’s status as the Oscar front-runner.

And then, something started to happen.

There was backlash against Foxcatcher.  As more and more critics saw the film, we started to hear more and more speculation that the film would fail to live up to all of the hype.  Critics generally praised the performers but many complained that the film was too cold and detached for its own good.  At first, it was easy to say that this was partially the result of unrealistically high expectations.  But, as more and more reviews came in, it became almost fashionable to speculate that Foxcatcher would be left out of the Oscar race.

Of course, most of us who were doing the speculating were doing so without actually having seen the film for ourselves.  After all, film critics and festival goers aren’t the ones who actually vote on what films will be nominated for and win Oscars.  One need only look at the nominations for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to realize that.

Well, Foxcatcher has finally been released and we’ve all finally gotten a chance to see it.  I saw it last week, while I was in Fort Worth for the Christmas holidays.  And my reaction…

Well, there’s a reason why it’s taken me nearly a week to write this review.

Ultimately, Foxcatcher is a good film.  In fact, on a purely technical level, it’s probably one of the best films of the year.  If it is nominated for best picture, the nomination will not necessarily be undeserved.  Bennett Miller comes up with some hauntingly chilly images.  Steve Carell, Channing Tatum, and Mark Ruffalo all give excellent performances.  It’s a film that stays with you, a powerful depiction of a true crime.

But it’s still not an easy film to enjoy.

Those critics who complained that Miller’s approach was too cold and detached have a point.  You watch the film with a sense of dread, knowing what’s going to eventually happen.  (Though I didn’t know anything about the murder of Dave Schultz before the film, I had read the reviews and I knew that eventually Mark Ruffalo’s kind-hearted family man would end up being gunned down in front of his family.)  But Miller always keeps the characters and the story at a distance.  You watch the characters and you struggle to understand them but, by the end of the film, you’re no closer to understanding why John E. du Pont (the eccentric millionaire turned murdered, played by Steve Carell) murdered Dave Schultz than you were at the beginning.

Instead, Miller is more interested as looking at John du Pont as being an example of American exceptionalism gone crazy.  Throughout the film, characters frequently comment on the fact that the du Ponts are one of the oldest and richest families in America.  (Not coincidentally, we’re also told that they initially made their fortune by producing and selling gunpowder.)  Du Pont is an outspoken and proud American.  Along with training wrestlers on the grounds of his estate (the Foxcatcher of the title), he also frequently invites the police to use the grounds for target practice.  Though Miller couldn’t have realized it when the film was originally shot in 2013, the scenes of the obviously unstable du Pont hanging out with the cops take on an extra resonance in this time of Eric Garner and Tamir Rice.

John du Pont frequently talks about how his plan to open a world-class wrestling training facility is, at heart, a patriotic act.  The world wrestling championship, du Pont believes, belongs in America and he’s going to make sure that it gets there.  In order to achieve this goal, he hires Olympic gold medalist Mark Schultz (Channing Tatum) to be his wrestling coach.  Mark, who has always lived in the shadow of his older brother Dave (Mark Ruffalo), jumps at the chance to establish his own identity.  At first, du Pont is like the father that Mark has never had.  They even become friends.  (Du Pont, at one point, talks about discovering that all of his childhood friends had been paid to be his friend.)  Mark shows du Pont some wrestling moves.  Du Pont introduces Mark to cocaine.

But, ultimately, it becomes apparent that du Pont’s friendship with Mark was really just a ruse to get Mark to convince his older brother to come work for du Pont.  When Dave finally does join Mark at Foxcatcher, it causes Mark to turn self-destructive and du Pont to eventually turn into a murderer.

And, as I said, it’s a powerful film.  Channing Tatum gives the performance of his career and Steve Carell is frighteningly believable as John du Pont.  (One minor complaint: Carell is being promoted for best actor, even though his performance was clearly a supporting one.)  Mark Ruffalo, as well, does great work as Dave and somehow manages to make innate human decency compelling.

But the film itself is so cold and detached that, ultimately, this is a film that you end up respecting more than you end up enjoying.

Foxcatcher

 

 

Here Are The Golden Globe Nominees!


214053-the-2013-golden-globe-award-nominations

The Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning and the big news is that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken was totally and completely snubbed.  Knowing the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, I figured that they’d nominate Jolie just to get her and Brad Pitt on the show.

(Does anyone remember when they nominated The Tourist for Best Comedy Film of 2010?  For that matter, does anyone remember The Tourist?)

Also, it’s interesting to note that David Fincher was nominated for best director for Gone Girl but Gone Girl itself did not receive a nomination for best picture.

(As of this writing, Sasha Stone has yet to post her analysis on Awards Daily but I’m sure when she does, it will be depressing.)

Anyway, below you can find the Golden Globe nominations for the best films of 2014.  (If you want to see a complete list with all of the television nominations, you can click here.)

BEST DRAMA FILM
“Boyhood”
“Foxcatcher”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”
David Oyelowo, “Selma”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY FILM
“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Into the Woods”
“Pride”
“St. Vincent”

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTOR
Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
Bill Murray, “St. Vincent”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Inherent Vice”
Christoph Waltz, “Big Eyes”

BEST MUSICAL/COMEDY ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”
Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods”
Helen Mirren, “The Hundred-Foot Journey”
Julianne Moore, “Maps to the Stars”
Quvenzhane Wallis, “Annie”

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year”
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone, “Birdman”
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Ava Duvernay, “Selma”
David Fincher, “Gone Girl”
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Gone Girl”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Big Hero 6”
“The Book of Life”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“The Lego Movie”

BEST SCORE
“Birdman”
“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“The Theory of Everything”

BEST SONG
“Big Eyes” from “Big Eyes” (Lana Del Ray)
“Glory” from “Selma” (John Legend, COmmon)
“Mercy Is” from “Noah” (Patty SMith, Lenny kaye)
“Opportunity” from “Annie”
“Yellow Flicker Beat” from “The Hunger Games, Mockingjay Part 1” (Lorde)

Here Are The SAG Nominations!


Earlier today, the Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced and I love them!  Not because I agree with all of them but because they’re a nice mix of the expected and the surprising.  Every category had at least one surprise and really, it’s the surprises that make Oscar Season so much fun.

For what they are worth, here are a few observations from yours truly:

When it comes to predicting the actual Oscar nominations, the SAG are usually an excellent precursor.  It makes sense — the Actors Branch is the biggest of the Academy’s voting branches and many of the same people who determined the SAG nominees will also be casting ballots for the Academy Awards.

At first, I was really shocked to see that Selma was totally snubbed.  However, I then read over at Gold Derby that apparently, because of production delays, a screener of Selma was not available for the SAG voters.  So, a lot of the voters made their nominations without having seen Selma.

Foxcatcher did not receive an ensemble nomination but it did receive nominations for Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo.  That’s especially good news for Carell, who has yet to be much of a factor in the precursor voting.

Speaking of which, everyone keeps taking about how Foxcatcher hasn’t been a major player in the precursors. What about Unbroken?  For a so-called Oscar front runner, Unbroken certainly hasn’t received much from the critics groups.

(I should note that I have yet to see either Foxcatcher or Unbroken so I don’t have an opinion on whether either one of them deserves awards.)

Among the big snubs: Amy Adams for Big Eyes, Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year or Interstellar, Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, and Oscar Isaac for A Most Violent Year.

My favorite nomination was Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler.  I haven’t seen Cake but I was happy to see Jennifer Aniston nominated because it was unexpected.  Robert Duvall’s great but wow, was the Judge ever a disappointing movie.

I was shocked to see Naomi Watts nominated for St. Vincent but it actually makes sense.  Her role in St. Vincent really was awards bait.  And who doesn’t love Naomi Watts?  (That said, I thought her performance was a bit cartoonish.)

Both the Grand Budapest Hotel and especially The Theory of Everything are looking more and more like probable best picture nominees.

And here are the nominees:

The-Grand-Budapest-Hotel-580

Best Ensemble:

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Jennifer Aniston in Cake

Best Actress

Jennifer Aniston in Cake

Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon in Wild

Robert Duvall

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall in The Judge

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

Edward Norton in Birdman

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Naomi Watts

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game

Emma Stone in Birdman

Meryl Streep in Into The Woods

Naomi Watts in St. Vincent

Xmen

Outstanding Stunt Ensemble

Fury

Get On Up

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Unbroken

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Lisa’s Oscar Predictions for November


selma

Well, here we are in November and the Oscar race is looking a lot more clear.  Early front runners have faded and new contenders have emerged and even some of the new contenders have subsequently faded.  The Oscar race is starting to look a lot more clear and it will look even clearer once December arrives and the critic groups start to chime in.

Here are my Oscar predictions for November!

And, if you want some clues about how this year’s Oscar race has developed over the past few months, be sure to check out my predictions for March, April, May, June, July, August, and October!

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

A Most Violent Year

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

Wild

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton in Birdman

David Oyelowo in Selma

Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year

Felecity Jones in The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Whitherspoon in Wild

Best Supporting Actor

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

Miyavi in Unbroken

Edward Norton in Birdman

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Laura Dern in Wild

Kiera Knightley in The Imitation Game

Emma Stone in Birdman

Meryl Streep in Into The Woods

Best Director

Ava DuVernay for Selma

Alejandro Inarritu for Birdman

Angelina Jolie for Unbroken

Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

a-most-violent-year

Here Are The Gotham Nominations!


Under the Skin

Under the Skin

Here are the nominations for the Gotham Independent Film Awards!  It’s debatable just how reliable the Gothams are as an Oscar precursor.  For one thing, the majority of the big studio productions are not eligible for the Gothams.  However, when you’re an indie film trying to win mainstream awards, any recognition is good recognition.

As far as the nominees go, Birdman and Boyhood are already Oscar front runners.  However, the Gotham nominations will perhaps remind some people that The Grand Budapest Hotel is eligible for Oscar consideration as well.

Here are the Gotham nominations!

Best Feature

  • Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Alejandro G. Iñárritu, director; Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, Arnon Milchan, James W. Skotchdopole, producers (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  • Boyhood – Richard Linklater, director; Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland, Jonathan Sehring, John Sloss, producers (IFC Films)
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson, director; Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson, producers (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  • Love Is Strange – Ira Sachs, director; Lucas Joaquin, Jay Van Hoy, Lars Knudsen, Ira Sachs, Jayne Baron Sherman, producers (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Under the Skin – Jonathan Glazer, director; Nick Wechsler, James Wilson, producers (A24 Films)

Best Documentary

  • Actress – Robert Greene, director; Douglas Tirola, Susan Bedusa, Robert Greene, producers (The Cinema Guild)
  • CITIZENFOUR – Laura Poitras, director; Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutzky, producers (RADiUS, Participant Media, and HBO Documentary Films)
  • Life Itself – Steve James, director; Zak Piper, Steve James, Garrett Basch, producers (Magnolia Pictures and CNN Films)
  • Manakamana – Stephanie Spray & Pacho Velez, directors; Lucien Castaing-Taylor, Véréna Paravel, producers (The Cinema Guild)
  • Point and Shoot – Marshall Curry, director; Marshall Curry, Elizabeth Martin, Matthew Van Dyke, producers (The Orchard and American Documentary / POV)

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award

  • Ana Lily Amirpour for A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (Kino Lorber)
  • James Ward Byrkit for Coherence (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
  • Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler (Open Road Films)
  • Eliza Hittman for It Felt Like Love (Variance Films)
  • Justin Simien for Dear White People (Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions)

Best Actor*

  • Bill Hader in The Skeleton Twins (Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions)
  • Ethan Hawke in Boyhood (IFC Films)
  • Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year (A24 Films)
  • Michael Keaton in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  • Miles Teller in Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)

* The 2014 Best Actor nominating panel also voted to award a special Gotham Jury Award jointly to Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum for their ensemble performance in Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).

Best Actress

  • Patricia Arquette in Boyhood (IFC Films)
  • Gugu Mbatha-Raw in Beyond the Lights (Relativity Media)
  • Julianne Moore in Still Alice (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Scarlett Johansson in Under the Skin (A24 Films)
  • Mia Wasikowska in Tracks (The Weinstein Company)

Breakthrough Actor

  • Riz Ahmed in Nightcrawler (Open Road Films)
  • Macon Blair in Blue Ruin (RADiUS)
  • Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood (IFC Films)
  • Joey King in Wish I Was Here (Focus Features)
  • Jenny Slate in Obvious Child (A24 Films)
  • Tessa Thompson in Dear White People (Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions)
Boyhood

Boyhood

Lisa’s Oscar Predictions For October


Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Ever since March, I have been posting my monthly Oscar predictions.  Because I was so busy with my Back To School series, I missed my chance to post an update in September.  (And, before you say that missing one month is no big deal, you should take into my consideration my OCD…)  However, it is now October and, as the Oscar picture starts to become a little bit more clear, here are my current predictions!

(Interested in seeing my past predictions?  Check out March, April, May, June, July, and August.)

Best Picture

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Still Alice

Unbroken

Whiplash

Wild

(Before anyone asks why I haven’t included Gone Girl or Inherent Vice on the list, I ask them to consider the Oscar fate of both The Master and Fincher’s Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.)

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper in American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Big Eyes

Felecity Jones in The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Whitherspoon in Wild

Best Supporting Actor

John Brolin in Inherent Vice

Edward Norton in Birdman

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Tom Wilkinson in Selma

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Laura Dern in Wild

Kiera Knightley in The Imitation Game

Rene Russo in Nightcrawler

Emma Stone in Birdman

Best Director

Clint Eastwood for American Sniper

Alejandro Inarritu for Birdman

Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

American Sniper

American Sniper

 

 

It’s Time For Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions for August!


theory-of-everything-new

Every month, around this time, I post my early Oscar predictions.  These predictions are based on random guesses, early buzz, and gut instinct.  Originally, I referred to these as being my way too early Oscar predictions but, now that we’re in August, they are merely early.

Below you can find my latest set of predictions.  The main change for this month is that I’ve factored in the fact that, based on the trailer, it looks like The Theory of Everything will be a definite contender.

And feel free to check out my predictions for March, April, May, June, and July!

 

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

Whiplash

Wild

 

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman

Richard Linklater for Boyhood

James Marsh for The Theory of Everything

Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

 

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner

 

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Big Eyes

Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Whitherspoon in Wild

Shailene Woodley in The Fault In Our Stars

 

Best Supporting Actor

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

John Lithgow in Love is Strange

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Tom Wilkinson in Selma

 

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars

Kristen Stewart in The Clouds of Sils Maria

Emma Stone in Birdman

theory-of-everything-felicity-redmayne

Lisa’s Early Oscar Predictions For July


Foxcatcher

Foxcatcher

It’s time for me to update my early Oscar predictions!  Every month, based on a combination of buzz, reviews, gut feelings, and random guesses, I attempt to predict which films, directors, and performers will receive nominations in 2015!  Originally, I referred to these as being my “way too early Oscar predictions.”  However, we are now halfway through the year and the picture is no longer quite as hazy as before.  Therefore, these are now simply my “early” predictions.

Click on the links to check out my predictions for March, April,  May, and June!

And below you’ll find my predictions for July.

As you may notice, my predictions have remained pretty stable over the past month.  The advance word on Big Eyes has been mixed but, unlike a lot of Oscar watchers, I was never expecting Big Eyes to be a major contender for any award other than best actress.  Meanwhile, Boyhood continues to be one of the most acclaimed films of the year, which makes me even more certain that Boyhood will be a contender in several categories.  Advanced word on Foxcatcher has also been so strong that I can now imagine both Mark Ruffalo and Channing Tatum scoring nominations for best supporting actor.

The big question right now is whether or not the acclaim that’s been given to summer films like Edge of Tomorrow and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes will also translate into major Oscar nominations or will those films simply have to be satisfied with getting all of the usual technical nominations.  Personally, I would love to see Andy Serkis get some love from the Academy but, sadly, I doubt it’s going to happen.

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Unbroken

Wild

 

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman

Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner

Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild

 

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner

 

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Big Eyes

Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Whitherspoon in Wild

Shailene Woodley in The Fault In Our Stars

 

Best Supporting Actor

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher

Tom Wilkinson in Selma

 

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars

Kristen Scott Thomas in Suite francaise

Kristen Stewart in The Clouds of Sils Maria

Emma Stone in Birdman

Boyhood

Boyhood

Lisa’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June


Timothy Spall in Mr Turner

It’s time for me to update my way too early Oscar predictions!  Every month, based on a combination of buzz, reviews, gut feelings, and random guesses, I attempt to predict which films, directors, and performers will receive nominations in 2015!  For the June edition, I look at how my predictions have been effected and changed by the results of the Cannes Film Festival.

Thanks to Cannes, I’m a bit more sure about some of my predictions (in particular, Foxcatcher, Mr. Turner, and Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars).  But at the same time, the majority of these predictions remain the result of instinct and random guessing.

Click on the links to check out my predictions for March, April, and May!

And now, here are June’s predictions!

Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Whiplash

Wild

Based on its reception at Cannes, I’ve added Mr. Turner to the list of nominees.    I’ve also dropped Unbroken from the list, largely because of how aggressively it is currently being hyped by people who have yet to see it.    Traditionally, the more intensely an awards contender is hyped during the first half of the year, the more likely it is that the film itself is going to be end up being ignored once the actual nominations are announced.  (This is known as the Law of The Butler.)

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman

Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner

Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild

I’ve dropped Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) and replaced them with Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher).  I’m far more confident that Cannes winner Miller will receive a nomination than Leigh.

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel

Michael Keaton in Birdman

Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner

The big addition here is Timothy Spall, who I am predicting will be nominated for his Cannes-winning performance in Mr. Turner.

Best Actress

Amy Adams in Big Eyes

Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl

Reese Whitherspoon in Wild

Shailene Woodley in The Fault In Our Stars

Based on the charming but slight trailer for Magic In The Moonlight, I have removed Emma Stone from this list.  I was tempted to replace her with Hillary Swank but even the positive reviews of The Homesman were curiously muted.  So, I ended up going with Jessica Chastain’s performance in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby.  I also replaced Michelle Williams with Shailene Woodley who, much like Jennifer Lawrence over the past two years, is currently starring in both a commercially successful franchise film and a critically and commercially acclaimed drama.  That said, The Fault In Our Stars may have opened too early in the year to be a legitimate contender.

Best Supporting Actor

James Franco in True Story

Ethan Hawke in Boyhood

Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher

Martin Sheen in Trash

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

I’ve moved Ralph Fiennes back up to Best Actor and I’ve replaced him with James Franco for True Story.  That might be wishful thinking on my part because everyone knows that I have a huge crush on James Franco.  However, the role — that of a real-life murderer who steals a reporter’s identity — sounds like both a chance of pace for Franco and the type of role that often leads to Oscar recognition.  (Just ask Steve Carell…)

Speaking of Steve Carell, he’s not the only actor getting awards-buzz for his performance in Foxcatcher.  Channing Tatum has been getting the best reviews of his career.  If he’s promoted for a supporting nod, Tatum is probably guaranteed a nomination (and, in all probability, that would doom the chances of Mark Ruffalo).  However, Tatum is apparently going to be promoted for best actor and his chances might be a bit more iffy in that race.

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars

Vanessa Redgrave in Foxcatcher

Kristen Scott Thomas in Suite francaise

Kristen Stewart in The Clouds of Sils Maria

Unlike a lot of film bloggers, I am not expecting Into the Woods to be a major Oscar contender.  (See The Law of The Butler above.)  While I was originally predicting that this film would manage to get Meryl Streep her annual nomination, I am now going to go out on a limb and predict that Meryl Streep will not be nominated for anything (other than maybe a Nobel Peace Prize) in 2015.  I’m also dropping both Viola Davis and Marcia Gay Harden from my list of predicted nominees and I’m replacing them with three actresses who received a lot of acclaim at Cannes: Julianne Moore for Map To The Stars, Vanessa Redgrave for Foxcatcher, and Kristen Stewart for The Clouds of Sils Maria.

Yes, I know what you’re saying — “Kristen Stewart!?”  Personally, if she’s as good as her reviews for The Clouds of Sils Maria seem to indicate, I think she will definitely be nominated.  I think it will actually help her case that she’s not exactly an acclaimed actress.  Look at it this way — people take it for granted that Meryl Streep is going to give a great performance, so much so that they’ll even make excuses for Meryl’s shrill turn in August: Osage County.  When someone like Kristen Stewart shows that she’s capable of more than Twilight, people notice and remember.  It’s those performances that inspire people to go, “Oh yeah, she actually can act!” that often lead to Oscar momentum.

And those are my predictions for June.  Agree?  Disagree?  Let me know in the comments section below!

Kristen Stewart

And here’s the Cannes Teaser for Foxcatcher!


Speaking of Cannes, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher has also been shown at the festival and it got a far more positive reaction than Lost River.  Below is the teaser that was released to coincide with its Cannes premiere.

I think everyone is pretty much assuming that both Foxcatcher and Steve Carell are going to be nominated for Oscars.  The big question, right now, seems to be rather Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum will join the list of nominees.  I’m also going to be keeping an eye on Vanessa Redgrave, who has a small role as Carell’s mother.  After all, a Redgrave nomination would be a chance for the Academy to honor a respected actress who might not be appearing in many more films.

(As well, it would be a perfect excuse to get Franco Nero to come to the ceremony!)

As for the trailer below — if nothing else, this movie looks intense.  It’s interesting to see Carell in such a dark role but I fully believe that he’s capable of pulling it off.