We are just a few hours away from the start of our annual October Horrorthon but, before we do that, I do have one last bit of business to attend to. Here are my Oscar predictions for the month of September! If you want to see how my thinking has evolved, be sure to check out my predictions for March, April, May, June, July, and August!
As for my latest set of predictions, they’re largely shaped by the news coming out of the festivals. Digger is no longer a contender for anything. And, just as last month, I continue to suspect that Dune Part Three will not be the Oscar powerhouse that some are expecting. The first two Dune films were both nominated but it just doesn’t feel like there’s a huge sentiment out there that’s saying, “We simply have to keep honoring each new installment!”
Here are my latest predictions!
Best Picture
The Debut
Elsinore
Fjord
I Play Rocky
La Bola Negra
Mr. Irrelevant
The Odyssey
Primetime
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo — La Bola Negra
Jesse Eisenberg — The Debut
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller — Project Hail Mary
It’s time for me to list my Oscar predictions. As far as wild speculation is concerned, the current Oscar race still feels like it’s off to a slow start. There seems to be a general assumption that The Odyssey is going to dominate both the nominations and the awards, and that there isn’t much point in considering what else could be nominated.
I do think The Odyssey is going to be a big contender. I also think Project Hail Mary will still be in the conversation at year’s end. Fjord won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, which has become a fairly good precursor for nominations, if not for the actual awards. As for the rest of the nominees, it’s still pretty much a guessing game at this point.
Here are a few of my guesses:
Digger will not be the powerhouse some people are predicting. Even when he was winning Oscars, Alejandro G. Iñárritu was still a dreadfully pretentious and self-important director. That tendency has only increased in the years since he won his second directing Oscar.
Michael will get a lot of hype, but it won’t be nominated for much because of the controversy around Michael Jackson’s later legal troubles. Colman Domingo might still get in, because the Academy always enjoys nominating someone for playing a bad father.
The Social Reckoning and Ink will both get middling reviews, but both will be nominated for reasons that have more to do with politics than quality.
Wild Horse Nine will be nominated but, like most of Martin McDonagh’s films, people will either love it or hate it. John Malkovich will be a strong contender for Best Actor, if only because he’s not getting any younger and this might be the Academy’s last chance to honor one of the best actors of his generation. Either Steve Buscemi or Sam Rockwell will be nominated for Supporting Actor. I went with Buscemi because he’s never been nominated before.
The Debut, I Play Rocky, and Mr. Irrelevant will benefit from being crowd-pleasers.
In the style of Siân Heder’s previous film, CODA, Being Heumann will be the nominee that nobody really thinks about until after it’s actually nominated.
You can check out my predictions from March, April, May, June, and July to see how my thinking has evolved over the year.
Best Picture Being Heumann The Debut Fjord I Play Rocky Ink Mr. Irrelevant The Odyssey Project Hail Mary The Social Reckoning Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Ink
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Best Actor
David Corenswet, Mr. Irrelevant
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Best Supporting Actor
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Matt Dillon, I Play Rocky
Colman Domingo, Michael
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Best Supporting Actress
Colleen Camp, Club Kid
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
As you look over my latest Oscar predictions, you may notice that I’ve dropped two films that I originally had listed as major contenders. Disclosure Day opened to mixed reviews and it really seems to have vanished from the cultural conversation in the wake of the release of The Odyssey. Digger has not opened yet but I just get the feeling that this is going to be another pretentious Alejandro Iñárritu film. Whenever anyone mentions the previous victory of Birdman, it always seems to be done with a slight bit of embarrassment. I think Iñárritu’s time as an Oscar favorite might be over.
These predictions below are based on what’s been released, what will be playing at the major festivals, which trailers generated excitement (hello I Play Rocky!), which films are most likely to appeal to the Academy’s political biases (hello Ink and The Social Reckoning) and, as always, a lot of wishful thinking on my part. (Hello I Play Rocky again!)
To see how my thinking has or has not evolved, check out my picks for March, April, May, and June!
Best Picture
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Being Heumann
The Debut
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
Ink
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
These predictions are still too early to be taken seriously. The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned. That said, here are my predictions for June!
Check out my predictions for March and April and May!
Best Picture
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Digger
Dune Part Three
Fatherland
Fjord
I Play Rocky
Primetime
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
These predictions are still too early to really be taken seriously. The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned. That said, here are my predictions for May!
Opening with a swarm of helicopters spaying for medflies and ending with an earthquake, 1993’s Short Cuts is a film about life in Los Angeles.
An ensemble piece, it follows several different characters as they go through their own personal dramas. Some of them are married and some of them are destined to be forever single but they’re all living in varying states of desperation. Occasionally, the actions of one character will effect the actions of another character in a different story but, for the most part, Short Cuts is a portrait of people who are connected only by the fact that they all live in the same city. There are 22 principal characters in Short Cuts and each one thinks that they are the star of the story.
Jerry Kaiser (Chris Penn) cleans the pools of rich people while, at home, his wife, Lois (Jennifer Jason Leigh), takes care of their baby and works as a phone sex operator. Jerry’s best friend is a makeup artist named Bill (Robert Downey, Jr.) who enjoys making his wife, Honey (Lili Taylor), looks like a corpse so that he can take her picture. One of her photographs is seen by a fisherman (Buck Henry) who has already discovered one actual corpse that weekend. He and his buddies, Vern (Huey Lewis) and Stuart (Fred Ward), discovered a dead girl floating in a river and didn’t report it until after they were finished fishing. (The sight of Vern unknowingly pissing on the dead body is one of the strongest in director Robert Altman’s filmography.)
Stuart’s wife, Claire (Anne Archer), is haunted by Stuart’s delay in reporting the dead body. A chance meeting Dr. Ralph Wyman (Matthew Modine) and his wife, artist Marian (Julianne Moore), leads to an awkward dinner between the two couples. Claire works as a professional clown and Ralph ends up wearing her clown makeup while his marriage falls apart.
Earlier, Claire was stopped and hit on by a smarmy policeman named Gene Shepard (Tim Robbins), who just happens to be married to Marian’s sister, Sherri (Madeleine Stowe). Gene is already having an affair with Betty Weathers (Frances McDormand), the wife of a helicopter pilot named Stormy (Peter Gallagher). When Stormy discovers that Betty has been cheating, he takes a creative revenge on her house.
Doreen Pigott (Lily Tomlin) lives in a trailer park with her alcoholic husband, Earl (Tom Waits). Driving home from her waitressing job, Doreen hits a young boy. The boy says he’s okay but when he gets home, he passes out. His parents, news anchorman Howard Finnegan (Bruce Davison) and his wife, Anne (Andie MacDowell), rush him to the hospital, where his doctor is Ralph Wyman. As Howard waits for his son to wake up, he has a revealing conversation with his long-estranged father (Jack Lemmon, showing up for one scene and delivering an amazing monologue). Meanwhile, a baker named Andy (Lyle Lovett) repeatedly calls the Finnegan household, wanting to know when they’re going to pick up their son’s birthday cake.
Based on the short stories of Raymond Carver and directed by Robert Altman, Short Cuts can sometimes feel like a spiritual descendent of Altman’s Nashville. The difference between this film and Nashville is that Short Cuts doesn’t have the previous film’s satiric bite. As good as Nashville is, it’s a film that can be rather snarky towards it character and the town in which it is set. Nashville is used as a metaphor for America coming apart at the seams. Short Cuts, on the other hand, is a far more humanistic film, featuring characters who are flawed but, with a few very notable exceptions, well-intentioned. If Nashville seem to be a portrait of a society on the verge of collapse, Short Cuts is a film about how that society ended up surviving.
It’s not a perfect film. There’s an entire storyline featuring Annie Ross and Lori Singer that I didn’t talk about because I just found it to be annoying to waste much time with. (The Ross/Singer storyline was the only one not to be based on a Carver short story.) The conclusion of Chris Penn’s storyline wasn’t quite as shocking as it was obviously meant to be. But, flaws and all, Altman and Carver’s portrait of humanity does hold our attention and it leaves us thinking about connections made and sometimes lost. Seen today, Short Cuts is a portrait of life before social media and iPhones and before humanity started living online. It’s a time capsule of a world that once was.
This has not been an easy month and I’ve fallen behind in my movie-watching and also my news-reading. So, take the predictions below with many grains of salt. That said, it is the end of the month and it’s time for my monthly Oscar predictions!
That’s one of the many questions posed by Todd Haynes’s latest film, May December.
Elizabeth Berry (Natalie Portman) is an actress who comes to Savannah, Georgia in order to research her next role. We don’t learn much about Elizabeth’s career as an actress but it appears that, while it has brought her a certain amount of fame, it hasn’t exactly been full of acclaimed work. One person mentions seeing a picture from a film that she did in which she was involved in a blood sacrifice. (“I googled ‘naked Elizabeth Berry,'” he explains.) Several other people mention how much they love her TV show, Norah’s Ark, in which Elizabeth plays a veterinarian. Elizabeth’s latest film features her playing a real person, someone who was at the center of a scandal 20 years previously and who has since faded from the public view. Elizabeth seems to believe that this role could redefine her career.
(Hey, it worked for Margot Robbie in I, Tonya.)
Elizabeth is going to play Gracie Atherton-Woo in an upcoming indie film. Way back in 1992, the real-life Gracie (Julianne Moore) was 36 years old and married when she was caught having sex with a 13 year-old named Joe in the back of a pet store. Joe was a classmate of Gracie’s son and Gracie was the one who was responsible for him getting hired at the pet store in the first place. Gracie was sent to prison, where she gave birth to Joe’s daughter. During her trial, Gracie and Joe were both tabloid mainstays. The nation was transfixed by their affair before eventually moving on to the next scandal. When Gracie was eventually released from prison, she married Joe. Now, decades after appearing on the front of every trashy magazine, Gracie and Joe (Charles Melton) are still married and they now have three children. They live in a big house in Savannah, Gracie has a career as a pastry maker, and, from the outside, they would appear to have a perfect domestic life together.
Wearily, Gracie and Joe allow Elizabeth to spend time with the family so that she can research her role. Elizabeth interviews other people who were effected by Gracie’s actions. Gracie’s ex-husband (D.W. Moffett) is surprisingly forgiving. Gracie’s children are considerably less forgiving. Georgie (Cory Michael Smith), who was Gracie’s son from her first marriage and a schoolmate of Joe’s, is bitter and describes his mother as being mentally unbalanced while, at the same time, trying to leverage his knowledge of Gracie’s past into a job on the film. As for Gracie and Joe’s first daughter (Piper Churda), she states that she doesn’t want the film to be made.
Cracks start to appear in the perfect image that Gracie and Joe present to the world. Gracie can be rigid and controlling while insisting that Joe was the one who initiated the encounter in the pet store. Gracie talks about growing up with four brothers, two of whom were older and two were younger. Gracie mentions that one of her brothers is an admiral and it’s implied that she grew up in an atmosphere where failure was not an option. Gracie’s daughter talks about how, when she graduated, her mother gave her a scale as a graduation gift. When someone cancels an order for a cake, Gracie takes it as a personal rejection and breaks down into tears. Gracie is friendly towards Elizabeth but never totally lets down her guard.
As for Joe, he emerges as well-meaning but confused, someone who is still often treated like a child by bother his wife and, eventually, the woman who is studying his wife. Whenever we see Joe with any other adults, he’s awkward as if he’s not sure how to behave. (When he tells his elderly father that he can hardly believe that all of his children will soon be in college, the old man’s silence tells us everything that we need to know about their relationship.) Joe is nearly forty but it’s clear that a good deal of his emotional development stopped when he was thirteen, leaving him desperate for approval. When he catches his teenage son smoking a joint, Joe isn’t angry as much as he’s curious. Smoking weed is one of the many things that Joe never did when he was younger. When Joe get high, he becomes a paranoid and emotional mess as all the feelings that he’s repressed for 23 years come spilling out. At the same time, when Gracie has a breakdown, Joe knows exactly what to say to help her through it.
Do Gracie and Joe truly love each other or is their marriage just their way of denying the reality of what happened? Did Gracie groom Joe or, as Gracie insists, was their affair consensual? At first, the audience’s natural tendency is to sympathize with Elizabeth and to expect her to play some sort of role in clarifying what actually happened in that pet store. But Elizabeth soon proves herself to be a rather detached observer, a mimic who copies the emotions of others but who, even after she gets to know Gracie and Joe as human beings, still views them as just being characters in a story. In the end, Elizabeth can’t help us understand what happened in the pet shop because, the film suggests, not even the people who were actually there understand what happened. All Elizabeth can do, as an actress and an observer, is try to recreate what she imagines happened.
It’s a well-made film, with Haynes deftly mixing scenes of high drama with the awkward comedy of people trying to rationally discuss the irrational. It can also be a frustrating viewing experience, if just because Haynes often does not seem to be sure what he’s trying to say about the characters or why we should even care about either Gracie or Elizabeth. Fortunately, the film is lucky enough to have a wonderful cast. While Moore and Melton gets the big, dramatic scene, it’s Portman who takes the audience by surprise, giving a performance that goes from being likable to being rather chilling as Elizabeth transforms herself more and more into Gracie. For all the film’s themes about conformity, morality, and tabloid culture, it’s main message may very well be to never trust a method actor.
May December sticks with you, even if it’s not up to the level of Haynes’s Carol. It’s a film about what happens after the infamy, with Gracie, Joe, and Elizabeth destined to be forever defined by what happened over the course of a few minutes in the backroom of a pet store.