Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions For February

Posted on February 16, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Well, it’s that time again!

Every month this year, I am updating my predictions for which films and performers will be nominated for Oscars in 2018. At this point in the year, this is largely an academic exercise. The nominees below are a mix of wild guesses, instinctual feeling, and wishful thinking. Usually, a clear picture of the Oscar race doesn’t start to form until October at the earliest. (Last year, at this time, nobody had even heard of Moonlight or Hell or High Water.) In other words, take these predictions with a grain of salt.

This update is heavily influenced by what happened at the Sundance Film Festival last month. In fact, it’s probably a bit too influenced by Sundance. If these predictions turned out to be 100% correct, the 2018 Oscars would be the Sundance Oscars. That said, it seems that there’s always a few successful Oscar campaigns that start during Sundance. (And then there’s always a few Sundance sensations that totally fizzle during awards season. Birth of a Nation, anyone? Or perhaps The End of the Tour.) But, as of right now, Sundance is pretty much the only thing that we have to go on, as far as future Oscar contenders are concerned.

Again, take all of this with a grain of salt. Just because I may brag about knowing what I’m talking about, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I do.

Check out January’s predictions here!

And without further ado…

Mudbound

Best Picture

Battle of the Sexes

The Beguiled

The Big Sick

Blade Runner 2047

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The big additions here are Mudbound, The Big Sick, and Call Me By Your Name, all three of which got a lot of attention and acclaim at Sundance. Both Mudbound and Call Me By Your Name are already being mentioned, by some Oscar bloggers, as possible winners for best picture. The Big Sick may seem like more of a dark horse but, from what I’ve read, it sounds like the sort of movie that could emerge as a surprise contender. With its Muslim protagonist and its mix of comedy and drama, it sounds like it could catch the cultural zeitgeist.

Dropping from the list: T2, All Eyez On Me, and War Machine. T2 has gotten good but not great reviews in the UK. As for All Eyez on Me and War Machine — well, it’s just a feeling I have. Both of them could be good but it’s easier to imagine a scenario in which they’re both disappointments.

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Dee Rees for Mudbound

Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2047

Guadagnino and Rees are new contenders. Rees would be the first black woman ever nominated for best director.

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Marshall

Timothée Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name

Tom Cruise in American Made

Kumail Nanjiani in The Big Sick

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

I’m a little bit iffy on Chadwick Boseman. In Marshall, he will be playing Thurgood Marshall, which sounds like a good, Oscar baity role. But Marshall itself sounds like a rather standard biopic. Timothee Chalamet and, especially, Kumail Nanjiani received a lot of Sundance acclaim. The fact that Nanjiani has been outspoken in his opposition to Trump’s travel ban will probably help his chances.

Sundance was also responsible for Logan Lerman falling off this list. Sidney Hall got terrible reviews.

Best Actress

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Danielle MacDonald in Patti Cake$

Carey Mulligan in Mudbound

Lois Smith in Marjorie Prime

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

Among the new additions, Danielle MacDonald was one of the break-out stars at Sundance. Carey Mulligan is due to get another nomination (and Mudbound is expected to be a major Oscar contender). As for Lois Smith, she’s a respected veteran actress who gets to play a rare lead role in Marjorie Prime. So, why not a nomination?

Best Supporting Actor

James Franco in The Masterpiece

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name

Jason Mitchell in Mudbound

Bill Skarsgard in It

Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me By Your Name

I’m continuing to predict a nomination for James Franco and yes, it probably is just wishful thinking on my part. But dammit, I just like the idea of Franco getting a nomination for playing Tommy Wiseau.

Skarsgard is probably wishful thinking as well. If It works, it will be because of Skarsgard’s performance as Pennywise.

Finally, Hammer, Mitchell, and Stuhlbarg are our Sundance nominees. Many people think that all three are overdue for some Academy recognition. (There’s some debate over whether Hammer should go supporting or lead for Call Me By Your Name. I’m going to assume that he’s going to pull a Viola Davis and go supporting.)

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige in Mudbound

Holly Hunter in The Big Sick

Melissa Leo in Novitiate

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Tilda Swinton in War Machine

As always, this is the most difficult category to predict. Blige, Hunter, and Leo are all Sundance nominees. (Hunter is especially said to be award-worthy in her Big Sick role.) For the second month in a row, Scott Thomas and Swinton are listed more because of who they are than any other reason.

The Big Sick

Lisa Marie’s Thoughts On The Oscar Nominations

Posted on January 24, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Okay, I’ve had plenty of time to think about today’s Oscar nominations and now I’m ready to share my thoughts. Obviously, my picks were a lot different from what the Academy selected. That’s okay. That’s the way it goes every year. I don’t mind being a contrarian.

So, let’s take a look at what was nominated, category-by-category.

(If you need a refresher as to what was nominated, here’s a complete list of nominees!)

Best Live Action Short, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short: I’m sure that these three categories are full of wonderful nominees that were created by wonderful people but I don’t believe that I’ve seen a single one of them. So, with that in mind, I can only imagine that the Academy did a perfect job selecting all 15 of these nominees! Good work, Academy!

Best Foreign Language Film: Again, I have seen none of the nominees so I really can’t comment one way or another. Normally, this would make me feel like a failure but I imagine that 90% of the people reading this post are in the same boat. I imagine Toni Erdmann will win, just because of all the good things I’ve read about it. But, since I haven’t actually seen any of the nominees, I will refrain from making any sort of prediction.

Best Documentary Feature: I’m disappointed that my favorite documentary, The Witness, was not nominated. And, quite frankly, I’m shocked that Weiner was not nominated. That said, I can’t complain about any of the documentaries that actually were nominated. It was a good year for documentaries. In fact, it could be argued that it was a better year for documentaries than for features.

Should Win: O.J.: Made in America

Will Win: 13th

Best Original Song: Not a single song from Sing Street was nominated and that is amazingly disappointing. Original song can be surprising. Remember last year when that terrible song from SPECTRE somehow won? That said, I’m expecting that this year will see a huge sweep by La La Land and one of its nominated songs will probably win.

Should Win: Audition (The Fools Who Can Dream) from La La Land

Will Win: City of Stars from La La Land

Best Original Score: The Neon Demon deserved a nomination but I’m not surprised it was snubbed. There’s no way the Academy was going to honor Nicholas Winding Refn’s subversive masterpiece. La La Land is going to win this one easily.

Should Win: La La Land

Will Win: La La Land

Best Visual Effects: I was glad to see that Kubo and the Two Strings was nominated and I wish that Arrival had been nominated as well. I’m going to go ahead and predict that Doctor Strange will be the first MCU film to win an Oscar.

Should Win: Doctor Strange

Will Win: Doctor Strange

Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing: Let’s be honest. I couldn’t explain the difference between sound editing and sound mixing and, unless you specifically work in the sound department, neither could you. As a result, these categories are always difficult to predict. But Hacksaw Ridge has to get some love somewhere and I bet it would happen here if not for La La Land.

Should Win (Both): Hacksaw Ridge

Will Win (Both): La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: As soon as I saw that Deadpool wasn’t nominated here, I knew it wouldn’t be nominated anywhere. Can you believe that fucking Suicide Squad is now an Oscar nominee? I haven’t seen A Man Called Ove but I’m going to predict its victory because I just can’t imagine the Academy honoring either Star Trek Beyond or Suicide Squad.

Should Win: Star Trek Beyond (that had good makeup in it, right?)

Will Win: A Man Called Ove

Best Film Editing: I can’t complain about any of the films nominated here. La La Land is pretty much a guaranteed winner here.

Should Win: La La Land

Will Win: La La Land

Best Costume Design: I was shocked that Love & Friendship was not nominated. If La La Land sweeps, it’ll win here. When I made out my list of my personal picks for the Oscars, I gave the costuming Oscar to La La Land but now that I’m looking at the actual nominees, I’m remembering just how good everyone looked in Allied.

Should Win: Allied

Will Win: La La Land

Best Cinematography: My personal pick for this award was The Neon Demon but it wasn’t nominated. Out of the nominated films, I would go with Moonlight but I think La La Land is going to sweep.

Should Win: Moonlight

Will Win: La La Land

Best Production Design: Well, it won’t be Passengers! How the Hell did that get nominated for anything? I think, of the nominees, Arrival deserves the award for making science fiction feel and look like science fact. But, again, I think La La Land is going to win here. (Are you sensing a theme in my predictions?)

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: La La Land

Best Animated Feature: I was happy that Kubo and the Two Strings, Zootopia, and Moana were all nominated. I haven’t seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini but, on the whole, the Academy has a record of nominating the right films for this award. I loved Kubo and I think it might win, just because it picked up that Visual Effects nomination as well. Zootopia, however, would allow the Academy to make a political point and Moana has Lin-Manuel Miranda. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a Kubo victory but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these five nominees won.

Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Will Win: ~~Zootopia~~ ~~Kubo and the Two Strings~~ ~~Moana Zootopia~~ Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Adapted Screenplay: With La La Land likely to sweep the technical awards and Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight set to pick up some acting awards, this category will give the Academy a chance to acknowledge Arrival.

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: Arrival

Best Original Screenplay: I think this is one of the few awards that La La Land will not win. This category gives the Academy a chance to honor Hell or High Water.

Should Win: Hell or High Water

Will Win: Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis is a guaranteed winner, even though her performance was a lead role.

Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences

Best Supporting Actor: I was really happy to see that Michael Shannon got a nomination because Shannon is a great actor who always seems to be taken for granted. That said, Mahershala Ali is almost as much of a lock as Viola Davis.

Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Actress: Let’s just get this out of the way. Amy Adams not only deserved a nomination, she also deserved the Oscar. Arrival works because of a twist that occurs halfway through the film. The twist works because of Amy Adams’s performance. If not for Amy Adams, Arrival would never have been nominated for best picture. The fact that she was not nominated will be remembered as one of the biggest mistakes in Academy history.

This morning, I was happy to see that a lot of people on twitter agreed with me about the Amy Adams snub. What took me by surprise was how many people also agreed with me that Meryl Streep essentially took a spot that should have been given to Amy Adams. This morning, among other things, I discovered that there’s actually a growing backlash against the annual tradition of automatically nominating Meryl Streep, regardless of whether the film was any good or not.

Could Meryl win yet again? It depends on whether or not the Academy wants to hear another Meryl Streep speech. Given the political climate, I wouldn’t discount that as a possibility. Since I’m on the subject and it’s possible that everyone stopped reading a few categories ago, I’m going to go ahead and admit my unpopular opinion. While I’m definitely not a fan of the new President, Meryl’s Golden Globe speech felt like almost a parody of upper class white liberalism. Listening to her, it was easy to imagine Meryl at a cocktail party, bragging about how she’s on a first name basis with her maid.

But, I’m in the minority as far as that opinion is concerned. The Industry loved Meryl’s speech and, after Donald Trump’s overreaction to it, giving an Oscar to Meryl and giving her a chance to repeat the speech on a much bigger stage would be the perfect way to give the finger to the current administration.

That said, I think Emma Stone will be carried along in the La La Land sweep. Whether justified or not, many members of the Academy will look at her character and see themselves.

Should Win: Amy Adams in Arrival (Yes, she wasn’t nominated but she should still win, goddammit.)

Will Win: Emma Stone in La La Land

Best Actor: Could anyone other than Casey Affleck win this one? Denzel Washington is popular and giving him an Oscar for Fences would be a nice to way to reward all of the effort that he put into bringing this acclaimed play to the screen. Affleck was sued for sexual harassment by a producer and a cinematogrpaher and ended up settling with both of them. However, I doubt if it will stop him from winning the Oscar. If the allegations were going to hurt Affleck’s chances, it would have happened long before now.

As for the nominees — well, I have no complaints. While I wasn’t as impressed with Affleck’s performance as some, I think he did well enough. I would have liked to have seen either Sully‘s Tom Hanks or Hell or High Water‘s Chris Pine nominated. I’m glad that Andrew Garfield picked up his first nomination.

Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Will Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea

Best Director: I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a minor upset. I think La La Land is going to win in a lot of categories but I think that Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins will win this Oscar. Best Picture and Director have been split fairly regularly over the past few years and, after both the #OscarsSoWhite controversy and the 2016 presidential election, it may be felt that it’s time for a black director to finally win the Oscar. Based on the skill shown in Whiplash and La La Land, Damien Chazelle will have other opportunities.

Should Win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Will Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Picture: Though I don’t necessarily think it was one of the best films of the year, I would have loved it if Deadpool had actually scored a nomination. It would have been an unexpected surprise and it would have shaken up a race that’s gotten rather predictable.

But no. Deadpool received no nominations and the expected films were nominated. Perhaps the only thing that could be considered surprising (though not that surprising) was that Martin Scorsese’s passion project, Silence, was not only snubbed for best picture but also only picked up one nomination. Passengers picked up more nominations that Martin Scorsese’s latest film. When it comes to total number of nominations, Silence is tired with Suicide Squad.

La La Land is going to win. It’s probably going to win nearly all 14 of the Oscars it has been nominated for. My pick for the best film of 2016 was American Honey. Of the nominees, I think Arrival is the one that deserves to win. But La La Land is an exuberant valentine to both the Academy and the industry.

La La Land‘s going to win.

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: La La Land

Here Are The Oscar Nominations!

Posted on January 24, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Here are the Oscar nominations. La La Land tied Titanic’s record with 14 nominations and I’m going to predict right now that it’ll win nearly everything that it’s been nominated for. Amy Adams was totally snubbed. Meryl Streep was technically nominated for Florence Foster Jenkins but we all know it was actually for her Golden Globes speech.

I may have more to say about this later but until then, here are the noms:

Best Picture

“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”

Best Director

Mel Gibson – “Hacksaw Ridge”
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”

Best Actor

Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield – “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington – “Fences”

Best Actress

Isabelle Huppert – “Elle”
Ruth Negga – “Loving”
Natalie Portman – “Jackie”
Emma Stone – “La La Land”
Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges – “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges – “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel – “Lion”
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals”

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – “Fences”
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman – “Lion”
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures”
Michelle William – “Manchester by the Sea”

Best Original Screenplay

“20th Century Women”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Manchester by the Sea”

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”

Best Animated Feature

“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”

Best Production Design

“Arrival”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“La La Land”
“Passengers”

Best Cinematography

“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”

Best Costume Design

“Allied”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”

Best Film Editing

“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“A Man Called Ove”
“Star Trek Beyond”
“Suicide Squad”

Best Sound Mixing

“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”

Best Sound Editing

“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Sully”

Best Visual Effects

“Deepwater Horizon”
“Doctor Strange”
“The Jungle Book”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

Best Original Score

“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Passengers”

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land”
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”
“City of Stars” from “La La Land”
“The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story”
“How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”

Best Documentary Feature

“Fire at Sea”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“Life, Animated”
“OJ: Made in America”
“13th”

Best Foreign Language Film

“Land of Mine”
“A Man Called Ove”
“The Salesman”
“Tanna”
“Toni Erdmann”

Best Live Action Short

“Ennemis Interieurs”
“La Femme et le TGV”
“Silent Nights”
“Sing”
“Timecode”

Best Documentary Short

“Extremis”
“4.1 Miles”
“Joe’s Violin”
“Watani: My Homeland”
“The White Helmets”

Best Animated Short Film

“Blind Vaysha”
“Borrowed Time”
“Pear Cider and Cigarettes”
“Pearl”
“Piper”

What if Lisa Picked The Oscar Nominees — 2016 Edition

Posted on January 23, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

With the Oscar nominations due to be announced tomorrow, now is the time that the Shattered Lens indulges in a little something called, “What if Lisa had all the power.” Listed below are my personal Oscar nominations. Please note that these are not the films that I necessarily think will be nominated. The fact of the matter is that the many of them will not. Instead, these are the films that would be nominated if I was solely responsible for deciding the nominees this year. Winners are starred and listed in bold.

(You’ll also note that I’ve added four categories, all of which I believe the Academy should adopt — Best Voice-Over Performance, Best Casting, Best Stunt Work, and Best Overall Use Of Music In A Film.)

(Click on the links to see my nominations for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010!)

Best Picture

*American Honey*

Arrival

Hell or High Water

Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Director

*Andrea Arnold for American Honey

Shane Black for The Nice Guys

Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

David MacKenzie for Hell or High Water

Nicholas Winding Refn for The Neon Demon

Denis Villeneuve for Arrival

Best Actor

Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling in The Nice Guys

Tom Hanks in Sully

Chris Pine in Hell or High Water

Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool

*Denzel Washington in Fences

Best Actress

*Amy Adams in Arrival

Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship

Viola Davis in Fences

Sasha Lane in American Honey

Emma Stone in La La Land

Anya Taylor-Joy in The Witch

Best Supporting Actor

*Mahershala Ali in Moonlight

Tom Bennett in Love & Friendship

Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water

Alden Ehrenreich in Hail Caesar!

John Goodman in 10 Cloverfield Lane

Patrick Stewart in Green Room

Best Supporting Actress

*Naomie Harris in Moonlight

Felicity Jones in A Monster Calls

Riley Keough in American Honey

Jena Malone in The Neon Demon

Helen Mirren in Eye in the Sky

Angourie Rice in The Nice Guys

Best Voice Over and/or Stop Motion Performance

Auli’i Cravalho in Moana

Ellen DeGeneres in Finding Dory

Ginnifer Goodwin in Zootopia

*Liam Neeson in A Monster Calls

Art Parkinson in Kubo and the Two Strings

Charlize Theron in Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Original Screenplay

American Honey

*Hell or High Water

Kubo and the Two Strings

La La Land

The Nice Guys

The Witch

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Animated Film

Finding Dory

*Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

Sausage Party

The Secret Life of Pets

Zootopia

Best Documentary Feature

The Confessions of Thomas Quick

Holy Hell

O.J.: Made in America

Best Casting

Everybody Wants Some!!

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Editing

Kubo and the Two Strings

*La La Land

Moonlight

A Monster Calls

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Captain America: Civil War

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Everybody Wants Some!!

Hail, Caesar!

*The Neon Demon

Best Original Score

Hell or High Water

Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Original Song

*”Audition (The Fool Who Dreams)” from La La Land

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

“Waving Goodbye” from The Neon Demon

“I’m so Humble” from Pop Star: Never Stop Never Stopping

“Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street

“Go Now” from Sing Street

Best Overall Use Of Music

*American Honey

The Conjuring Part Two

Best Production Design

Best Sound Editing

Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

Captain America: Civil War

Best Stunt Work

Captain America: Civil War

The Legend of Tarzan

Best Visual Effects

Arrival

*Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

A Monster Calls

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Films Listed By Number of Nominations:

13 Nominations — La La Land

1o Nominations — Hell or High Water

9 Nominations — Moonlight, The Neon Demon

8 Nominations — American Honey, Arrival, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Monster Calls

6 Nominations — The Nice Guys

5 Nominations — Deadpool, Love & Friendship

4 Nominations — Captain America: Civil War, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Moana, Sully

3 Nominations — Doctor Strange, Green Room, Sing Street

2 Nominations — The Conjuring 2, Everybody Wants Some!!, Fences, Finding Dory, The Jungle Book, 10 Cloverfield Lane, The Witch, Zootopia

1 Nomination — The Confessions of Thomas Quick, Don’t Breathe, Eye in the Sky, Holy Hell, Jason Bourne, The Legend of Tarzan, O.J.: Made in America, Pop Star: Never Stop Never Stopping, Rigged 2016, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Sausage Party, The Secret Life of Pets, Weiner, The Witness

Films Listed By Number of Oscars Won:

4 Oscars — American Honey

3 Oscars — La La Land

2 Oscars — Arrival, Moonlight, The Neon Demon

1 Oscar — Deadpool, Doctor Strange, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Kubo and the Two Strings, Love & Friendship, A Monster Calls, Sully, 10 Cloverfield Lane, The Witness

Will the Academy agree with my predictions? Probably not but we’ll find out on Tuesday!

The Hawaii Film Critics Society Embraces La La Land

Posted on January 20, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

On January 16th, the film critics of Hawaii (and who wouldn’t want to be a member of that group?) announced their picks for the best of 2016! They really, really liked La La Land!

BEST FILM:
La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
BEST ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
BEST ACTRESS:
Viola Davis, Fences
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (tie)
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Tom Ford (Based on the Novel by Austin Wright), Nocturnal Animals
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Linus Sandgren, La La Land

BEST EDITING:
Tom Cross, La La Land
BEST ART DIRECTION:
Austin Gorg, La La Land
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
BEST MAKE-UP:
Bill Corso, Deadpool
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Arrival (tie)
Doctor Strange
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
BEST SONG:
Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, “Audition (Fools Who Dream),” La La Land (tie)
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
Kubo and the Two Strings (dir. Travis Knight) (tie)
Zootopia (dir. Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Jared Bush)
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
OJ: Made in America (dir. Ezra Edelman)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Handmaiden (dir. Chan-wook Park), (South Korea) (tie)
Neruda (dir. Pablo Larrain), (Chile)
BEST HAWAII FILM:
Moana (dir. Ron Clements, Don Hall, John Musker and Chris Williams)
BEST NEW FILMMAKER:
Dan Trachtenberg, 10 Cloverfield Lane
BEST FIRST FILM:
10 Cloverfield Lane (dir. Dan Trachtenberg)
BEST OVERLOOKED FILM:
Hell or High Water (dir. David Mackenzie)
BEST SCI-FI/HORROR FILM:
Arrival (dir. Denis Villeneuve)
BEST STUNTS:
The Magnificent Seven
BEST VOCAL/MOTION CAPTURE PERFORMANCE:
Charlize Theron/ Kubo and the Two Strings
WORST FILM OF THE YEAR:
Fifty Shades of Black (tie)
Zoolander 2

Playing Catch-Up: Arrival (dir by Denis Villeneuve)

Posted on January 14, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

I cannot begin to express how happy I was when I learned that the Directors Guild of America had nominated Denis Villeneuve for his work on Arrival.

Arrival was one of the best films of 2016. In fact, I would argue that it’s one of the best science fiction films that I’ve ever seen. There were a lot of reasons for that, of course. There was the brilliant script by Eric Heisserer. There was the starring performance of Amy Adams, who is one of the best actresses working today. There was a surprise and thought-provoking twist, one that forced you to reconsider everything that you previously believed. There were so many reasons why Arrival was a great film but, ultimately, it call came down to Denis Villeneuve.

Working with material that would have led most directors down the road to bombast, Villeneuve instead took a deliberately low-key approach. Whereas most directors would have encouraged their cast to play up the drama, Villeneuve encourages his actors to take a more inward and cerebral approach to the material. Arrival is a rarity — a film about smart people in which the people actually seem to be smart. For once, we don’t need expositionary characters to pop up and tell us that Louise Banks (Amy Adams) and Ian Donnelly (Jeremy Renner) are brilliant. Instead, we simply believe they are from what we see on the screen. Much like last year’s Sicario, Arrival proves that Villeneuve is a visionary director.

Arrival is a hard film to describe, not because it’s overly complicated but because there’s a huge twist that I really can’t reveal. Before the twist, Arrival is simply a well-directed sci-fi film. After the twist, it is something all together different, an intense meditation on faith, love, language, and destiny. Since I’m reviewing the film late, chances are that you already know about the twist but I’m still not going to spoil it.

What I can tell you is that Arrival opens with the arrival of twelve spaceships, all of which land at different places across the world. The Chinese have a spaceship. The British have a spaceship. I imagine that the Canadians have a spaceship, because who wouldn’t want to hang out with the Canadians? And, of course, the Americans have a spaceship. The aliens are inside the spaceships. They’re octopus-like creatures, ones that almost look as if they could have come from one of Lovecraft’s Cthulhu stories. The aliens may appear to be fearsome but they actually seem to be rather benevolent. No one’s quite sure because the aliens communicate through a complex series of symbols and nobody can understand what those symbols mean.

Louise Banks is a linguist. Ian Donnelly is a physicist. The Americans bring both in to help translate the symbols. Of course, the rest of the world has their own linguists and physicists working to translate the symbols and, humans being humans, it often seems that the Americans and the Chinese are less concerned with translating what the aliens are saying and more concerned with being the first to understand. While Louise works, she continues to be haunted by dreams and visions of her daughter’s death from cancer.

And that’s really all I can tell you without spoiling the film and potentially making myself cry. But I will say that if you haven’t seen Arrival, you must go out and see it now. It’s one of the most thought-provoking and emotionally wrenching films of the past year.

Add to that, it’s probably going to be nominated for best picture. It’s been overshadowed a bit by all the attention paid to La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester By The Sea. But Arrival is just as good a film as any of them. In fact, in the future, we’ll probably look at Arrival and say that it was better than all of them.

Here Are The DGA nominations!

Posted on January 12, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

The Director’s Guild announced their feature film nominations earlier today.

A DGA nomination is one of the biggest prizes of the precursor season. In general, if the DGA nominates a film then it’s likely that film will also get nominated for best picture. There have been exceptions, of course. (David Fincher was nominated for his bastardized rehash of Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.) But, for the most part, the DGA is the most reliable precursor available.

Five directors were nominated. The usual suspects were there — Lonergan, Jenkins, and Chazelle. Fortunately, Denis Villeneuve picked up a nomination, which is good news for Arrival. The fifth nominee was a bit of a surprise. Garth Davis was nominated for Lion, which I guess means I’ll have to go see that movie now, even though I have little real desire to do so.

Martin Scorsese was not nominated for Silence, which probably means that the film will be dead-in-the-water as far as Oscar nominations are concerned.

Also not nominated — Tim Miller for Deadpool, a film that’s been doing surprisingly well with the precursors. If Tim Miller had been nominated, heads would have exploded. It would have been fun to watch the twitter reaction.

Instead, we just got this —

Garth Davis? #DGA

— Lisa Marie Bowman (@LisaMarieBowman) January 12, 2017

Dammit, does that mean I have to go see Lion now? #DGA

— Lisa Marie Bowman (@LisaMarieBowman) January 12, 2017

Just to make it official, here are the five DGA nominees:

Denis Villeneuve — Arrival

Damien Chazelle — La La Land

Garth Davis — Lion

Kenneth Lonergan — Manchester By The Sea

Barry Jenkins — Moonlight

The North Texas Critics Association Names La La Land The Best of 2016!

Posted on January 4, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

I have to admit that I’m starting to reach the point that I always reach during Oscar season. This is the point where I say, “How many different groups of critics are there!?”

Anyway, the North Texas Critics Association have announced their picks for the best of 2016! There are my people (in that we all live in North Texas and probably make a lot of jokes about pasty yankee tourists coming down from the North and sweating like pigs) and they picked La La Land as the best of the year. I’ll be seeing La La Land this weekend so I’ll let you know if they were right.

Best Film
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Loving
6. Arrival
7. Captain Fantastic
8. Nocturnal Animals
9. Jackie
10. The Birth of a Nation

Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
2. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
3. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
4. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
5. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Actress
1. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
2. Emma Stone (La La Land)
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
4. Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
5. Ruth Negga (Loving)

Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
3. Denzel Washington (Fences)
4. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
5. Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Viola Davis (Fences)
3. Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
4. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
5. Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
2. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
3. Dev Patel (Lion)
4. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
5. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Cinematography
1. Linus Sandgren (La La Land)
2. James Laxton (Moonlight)
3. Simon Duggan (Hacksaw Ridge)
4. Bradford Young (Arrival)
5. Stephane Fontaine (Jackie)

Best Animated Film
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Sing

Best Documentary
1. Gleason
2. 13th
3. Tower
4. Wiener
5. The Eagle Huntress

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Elle
2. The Handmaiden
3. Hunt for the Wilderpeople
4. The Salesman

5. Toni Erdmann

Lisa’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For January

Posted on January 1, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Why are these Oscar predictions “way too early?”

Well, unlike every other movie blogger right now, I am not attempting to predict who and what will be nominated on January 24th. Instead, with this post, I am attempting to predict which 2017 releases will be nominated next year! In short, I am attempting to predict what movies and which performers will emerge as Oscar contenders over the next 12 months.

Needless to say, this is more than a little bit foolish on my part. I haven’t seen any of the films listed below. Some of these films don’t have release dates and others are coming out so early in the year that, in order to be contenders, they’ll have to be so spectacular that neither the Academy nor the critics end up forgetting about them. For the most part, the true picture of the Oscar race usually doesn’t start to emerge until the summer.

For now, these predictions are, for the most part, wild guesses and they should be taken with more than just a grain of salt. Each month, I will revise my predictions. At the very least, next year, we’ll probably be able to look back at this post and laugh.

(Whenever trying to make early Oscar predictions, one should remember all of the award bloggers who predicted Nicole Kidman would win an Oscar for Grace of Monaco, just to then see the movie make its long-delayed premiere on Lifetime.)

With all that in mind, here are my way too early Oscar predictions for January!

Best Picture

All Eyez on Me

Battle of the Sexes

The Beguiled

Blade Runner 2047

Crown Heights

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

T2: Trainspotting

War Machine

Again, for the most part, these predictions are a combination of wild guesses, instinct, and wishful thinking. It’s entirely possible that none of these films will actually be nominated for best picture. (Some might even end up premiering on Lifetime, you never know.) Here’s why I think that some of them might be remembered next year at this time:

All Eyez On Me is a biopic of Tupac Shakur. Assuming the film is done correctly, Shakur’s life would seem to have all the elements that usually go into an Oscar-winning film.

Battle of the Sexes is a film based on a true incident, a 1970s tennis match between a feminist and a self-declared male chauvinist. It’s directed by the team behind the Oscar-nominated Little Miss Sunshine and it stars two former nominees, Emma Stone and Steve Carell.

The Beguiled might be wishful thinking on my part but, at this point, wishful thinking is all I have to go on for most of these predictions. The Beguiled is a remake of a Clint Eastwood film and it’s directed by one of my favorite directors, Sofia Coppola! Much like Battle of the Sexes, its misogynist-gets-what’s-coming-to-him storyline might make it the perfect film for the first year of the Trump presidency.

Blade Runner 2047 is one of the most eagerly anticipated films of 2017 and it’s directed by Denis Villeneuve, who is hot off of Arrival. The Oscar success of Mad Max: Fury Road proved that a sequel can be a contender.

Every year, at least one contender emerges out of Sundance and this year, it could very well be Crown Heights. It tells a fact-based story, about a man trying to win his best friend’s release from prison after the latter is wrongly convicted. That all sounds very Oscar baity.

Speaking of Oscar bait, Darkest Hour stars Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill. If that doesn’t sound like Oscar bait, I don’t know what does.

Downsizing is Alexander Payne’s latest film. It’s about a man (Matt Damon), who shrinks himself. It may not sound like typical Oscar bait but Payne is definitely a favorite of the Academy’s.

Dunkirk is Christopher Nolan’s big epic for 2017. Will it be another huge success or will it just be bombastic? We’ll see. The Academy has a weakness for World War II films and it could be argued that the very successful yet never nominated Nolan is overdue for some Academy recognition. (It is true that Inception received a nomination for best picture but Nolan himself was snubbed.)

T2: Trainspotting is probably coming out too early in the year to be a legitimate contender but who knows? The trailer was great. Danny Boyle is directing it. And, much as with Blade Runner 2047, Mad Max: Fury Road proved that a well-made and intelligent sequel can find favor with the Academy.

War Machine is described as being a satire about the war in Afghanistan. Could it be another Big Short? With Obama out of office, the Academy might be more open to political satire than they’ve been in the past.

Best Director

Danny Boyle for T2: Trainspotting

Sofia Coppola for The Beguiled

Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2047

Again, there’s a lot of random guessing here. Personally, I’d love to see Sofia Coppola receive a second nomination for best director. Payne and Boyle are always possibilities and, if Villeneuve’s work on Arrival is ignored this year, nominating him for Blade Runner would be a good way to make up for it. As for Nolan, he’s going to get nominated some day. Why not for Dunkirk?

Best Actor

Tom Cruise in American Made

Sam Elliott in The Hero

Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman

Logan Lerman in Sidney Hall

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

In American Made, Tom Cruise plays a real-life drug runner. It sounds like one of those change-of-pace roles that often results in an Oscar nomination. Gary Oldman has never won an Oscar and has only been nominated once. The Academy might want to rectify that situation by nominating him for playing Winston Churchill. And finally, Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum in a big budget musical that’s scheduled to open on Christmas Day? It sounds like either a total disaster or the formula for Oscar gold!

Logan Lerman is one of those actors who appears to be destined to eventually be nominated for an Oscar and, in Sidney Hall, he ages over thirty years. Finally, Sam Elliott is a beloved veteran who has never been nominated. If The Hero is a hit at Sundance, it’s easy to imagine the Oscar campaign that will follow.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Zookeeper’s Wife

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Nicole Kidman in The Beguiled

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

Naomi Watts in The Book of Henry

As of this writing, Meryl Streep does not have a movie scheduled to be released in 2017, which means that another actress will get the sport usually reserved for her. But who? Jessica Chastain could be nominated because she’s Jessica Chastain and the Academy loves her. Judi Dench plays Queen Victoria for a second time in Victoria and Abdul. The Academy loves movies about British royalty and Dench has already been nominated once for bringing Victoria to life. Naomi Watts plays a loving but possibly crazy mother in The Book of Henry, which again sounds like a very Oscar baity role. If Emma Stone doesn’t win for La La Land, the Academy could make it up to her by nominating her for Battle of the Sexes.

As for Nicole Kidman in The Beguiled — well, let’s call that wishful thinking. My hope is that Sofia Coppola will do great things with The Beguiled and she will get another great performance out of Nicole Kidman. We’ll see if I’m right.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Carlyle in T2: Trainspotting

Johnny Depp in Murder on The Orient Experss

James Franco in The Masterpiece

Bill Skarsgard in It

Kevin Spacey in Billionaire Boys Club

Admittedly, the guesses here are fairly random but there is a logic behind each nominee. Robert Carlyle was great in Trainspotting so he might be just as great in T2. In Billionaire Boys Club, Kevin Spacey plays a sleazy con artist and that sounds like the type of role with which he could do wonders. If It is to be a success, Bill Skarsgard is going to have to be a terrifying Pennywise. If Heath Ledger could win for playing the Joker, surely Skarsgard could be nominated for playing Pennywise.

As for James Franco in The Masterpiece … yes, it’s more wishful thinking on my part. Franco will be playing Tommy Wiseau, the director of the notorious The Room. Wiseau is, needless to say, an eccentric figure. Not only do I think James Franco could give an award-worthy performance in the role but I also just like the idea of someone getting an Oscar for playing Tommy Wiseau.

Finally, we have Johnny Depp in Murder on The Orient Express. Why not? It seems like someone from that film’s huge cast is destined to be nominated so why not Johnny Depp?

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Aniston in The Yellow Birds

Danai Guirra in All Eyez On Me

Kelly MacDonald in T2: Trainspotting

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Tilda Swinton in War Machine

These guesses are even more random than my guesses for supporting actor. Jennifer Aniston and Danai Guirra will both be playing mothers who lose their sons. A lot of people were surprised when Aniston was not nominated for Cake so here’s a chance for the Academy to make it up to her. As for Kristin Scott Thomas, she’ll be playing Winston Churchill’s wife and the Academy loves historical wives (i.e., Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech and Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything).

As for the last two predictions, Tilda Swinton is listed because she’s Tilda Swinton. Kelly MacDonald is listed for the same reason that I put Robert Carlyle down for supporting actor. She was just so good in the first film.

So, there you go! Those are my too early Oscar predictions for January! Will they prove to be accurate? Probably not.

But we’ll see how things change over the next couple of months. At the very least, you’ll be able to look back at this post and laugh at me for thinking that … oh, let’s say Battle of the Sexes … would ever be nominated for an Academy Award.

As for me, I’ll be revising my predictions in February. At least by that point, maybe the Sundance Film Festival will have provided some guidance…

Here Are The Nominations Of The Online Film Critics Society!

Posted on December 27, 2016 by Lisa Marie Bowman

The Online Film Critics Society announced their nominations today. Along with the usual suspects, the 7 and a half hour documentary OJ: Made in America also picked up a nomination for best picture.

Best Picture

Arrival
The Handmaiden
Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
O.J.: Made in America
Paterson
The Witch

Best Animated Feature

Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Director

Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Pablo Larraín – Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Best Actor

Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea
Adam Driver – Paterson
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences

Best Actress

Amy Adams – Arrival
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Tom Bennett – Love & Friendship
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences
Lily Gladstone – Certain Women
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
Jackie – Noah Oppenheim
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou
Manchester By the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival – Eric Heisserer, Ted Chiang
Elle – David Birke, Philippe Djian
Love & Friendship – Whit Stillman
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford

Best Editing

Arrival – Joe Walker
Cameraperson – Nels Bangerter
Jackie – Sebastian Sepulveda
La La Land – Tom Cross
Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders

Best Cinematography

Arrival – Bradford Young
Jackie – Stéphane Fontaine
La La Land – Linus Sandgren
Moonlight – James Laxton
The Neon Demon – Natasha Braier

Best Film Not in the English Language

Elle – France
The Handmaiden – South Korea
Neruda – Chile
The Salesman – Iran
Toni Erdmann – Germany

Best Documentary

13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
Weiner

Best Non-U.S. Release

After the Storm
The Death of Louis XIV
The Girl With All the Gifts
Graduation
Nocturma
Personal Shopper
A Quiet Passion
Staying Vertical
The Unknown Girl
Yourself and Yours