Even though Horrorthon has taken up the majority of my time this October, I still have been watching as this year’s Oscar race has developed over the past 29 days. And that’s a good thing because it’s time for my monthly predictions!
Below, you’ll find my predictions for October! In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September!
Best Picture
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
She Says
TAR
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Best Director
Chinonye Chukwu for Till
Todd Field for TAR
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin
Sarah Polley for Women Talking
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Austin Butler in Elvis
Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin
Hugh Jackman in The Son
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Best Actress
Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Cate Blanchett in TAR
Olivia Colman in Empire of Light
Danielle Deadwyler in Till
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin
Tom Hanks in Elvis
Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in Women Talking
Claire Foy in Women Talking
Nina Hoss in Tar
Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The 2022 Gotham Nominations were announced earlier today. While the Gothams have recently started to get some attention as an Oscar precursor, it is important to remember that the Gothams are specifically designed to honor low-budget, independent films. There’s some very strict rules about which films are eligible and which are not. So, don’t be shocked at the lack of nominations for something like The Fabelmans. Spielberg has never been eligible for a Gotham.
If any one film is really going to benefit from these nominations, it’s probably Everything Everywhere All At Once. Seeing as how it’s been a while since Everything Everywhere came out, the Gotham nominations may (or may not) serve to remind the members of the Academy of the excitement that was generated by the film earlier in the year.
Here are the Gotham nominations for 2022. The winners will be announced on November 28th.
Breakthrough televisionunder 40 minutes
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“As We See It” (Amazon Prime Video)
“Mo” (Netflix)
“Rap Sh!t” (HBO Max)
“Somebody, Somewhere” (HBO)
Breakthrough televisionover 40 minutes
“Pachinko” (Apple+)
“Severance” (Apple+)
“Station Eleven” (HBO Max)
“This Is Going To Hurt” (AMC+)
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Television performers:
Bilal Baig (“Sort Of”)
Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”)
Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”)
Matilda Lawler (“Station Eleven”)
Britt Lower (“Severance”)
Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”)
Sue Ann Pien (“As We See It”)
Minha Kim (“Pachinko”)
Zahn McClarnon (“Dark Winds”)
Ben Whishaw (“This Is Going To Hurt”)
Breakthrough nonfiction series
“The Andy Warhol Diaries”
“The Last Movie Stars”
“Mind Over Murder”
“The Rehearsal”
“We Need to Talk About Cosby”
Breakthrough director
Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”)
Owen Kline (“Funny Pages”)
Elegance Bratton (“The Inspection”)
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (“Murina”)
Beth De Araújo (“Soft & Quiet”)
Jane Schoenbrun (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)
Best screenplay
Kogonada (“After Yang”)
James Gray (“Armageddon Time”)
Lena Dunham (“Catherine Called Birdy”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)
Breakthrough performer
Frankie Corio (“Aftersun”)
Kali Reis (“Catch the Fair One”)
Gracija Flipovic (“Murina”)
Anna Diop (“Nanny”)
Anna Cobb (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)
Outstanding supporting performance
Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Raúl Castillo (“The Inspection”)
Gabrielle Union (“The Inspection”)
Nina Hoss (“Tár”)
Noémie Merlant (“Tár”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Oustanding lead performance
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)
Dale Dickey (“A Love Song”)
Colin Farrell (“After Yang”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Thandiwe Newton (“God’s Country”)
Aubrey Plaza “(Emily the Criminal)”
Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Best international feature
“Athena”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Corsage”
“Decision to Leave”
“Happening”
“Saint Omer”
Best documentary feature
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“I Didn’t See You There”
“The Territory”
“What We Leave Behind”
Best feature
“Aftersun”
“The Cathedral”
“Dos Estaciones”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
Horrorthon, my favorite time of year, starts tomorrow! However, before we get lost in the scary season, I want to take one last look at awards season! It’s time for me to update my Oscar nominations. Fortunately, thanks to all of the recent festival premieres, the Oscar picture is finally starting to look a little bit clearer. There’s still a lot of question marks out there and, as always, anything can happen. But, finally, I can say that there’s more to my predictions that just lucky guesses and wishful thinking.
Below, you’ll find my predictions for September! In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, and August.
Best Picture
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
The Menu
TAR
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
A few thoughts on the (potential) nominees:
Babylon, I will admit, I’m including because of the trailer and the fact that it’s a Damien Chazelle film about Hollywood. The Academy likes films about itself and one can argue that after what happened when La La Land was nominated, Chazelle is owed at least a little bit of recognition. Then again, that same argument could have been made for First Man and we know how that turned out.
As for The Menu, I’ve got that in my surprise nominee slot. There’s almost always at least one potential nominee that’s considered to be a long shot until the nominations are announced. Now that we have a set number of ten nominees, the chances that one nominee will be a surprise seems even more certain than before.
Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, and Everything Everywhere All At Once all came out early in the year but they’ve all achieved the box office success necessary to be remembered.
Till seems like the type of film that the Academy will want to acknowledge, especially with the presidential election right around the corner.
The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, TAR, and Women Talking were all acclaimed when they made their festival debuts. Banshees, in particular, went from being a probable also-ran to a surefire contender based on the length of the standing ovation that it received.
Best Director
Chinonye Chukwu for Till
Todd Field for TAR
Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin
Sarah Polley for Women Talking
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Austin Butler in Elvis
Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin
Ralph Fiennes in The Menu
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Best Actress
Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Cate Blanchett in TAR
Olivia Colman in Empire of Light
Danielle Deadwyler in Till
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin
Tom Hanks in Elvis
Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sally Field in Spoiler Alert
Frances McDormand in Women Talking
Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Here are my Oscar predictions for August. By the end of September, the picture should be a bit clearer. Until then, most of the predictions listed below continue to be guesses.
Little by little, the Oscar race is starting to become just a little bit clearer. It’s still early, of course. Really, it’s way too early to say anything for sure. But it’s also hard to deny that certain films are now much more in the conversation than others.
The biggest development this month was the announcement that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not be released until 2023. That takes it out of Oscar contention …. for now. (For those who may have forgotten, it was originally announced, halfway through 2013, that The Wolf of Wall Street would not be ready until sometimes in 2014. Everyone dutifully updated their Oscar predictions, striking The Wolf of Wall Street from their lists of likely best picture nominees. Then, at the last minute, Scorsese announced that the film actually would be ready for 2013. If something similar happens this year, Killers of the Flower Moon will go right back to being a huge contender because it’s Scorsese and he’s one of the best, regardless of what certain Marvel fans would have you believe.) With Scorsese apparently out, it would now appear that Steven Spielberg is going to be the only member of the old guard with a film in the Oscar race. Considering that many people believe that Spielberg’s West Side Story was snubbed last year when it only took home one Oscar (out of a total of sever nominations), The Fabelmans seems like it will be a major contender. Admittedly, my hope that David Lynch will earn an acting nomination for playing John Ford in The Fabelmans may be a longshot but it can not be denied that it would be a cool development.
As for the other contenders, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, and Everything Everywhere All At Once all seem poised to ride a combination of critical acclaim and box office success into the Oscar race. Todd Field has finally returned with Tar. The Whale has the potential to be a comeback vehicle for the always likable Brendan Fraser. She Said, Till, and Women Talking all stand to take advantage of the current political climate. And Babylon will presumably give Hollywood a chance to celebrate itself.
The Oscar picture is still a bit cloudy but, with so many major festival on the horizon, those clouds should be parting soon.
It’s time for me to once again try to predict what will be nominated for the Oscars. If you had to told me, at this time last year, that Top Gun: Maverick would emerge as an Oscar contender, I would have said that you were crazy but here we are. Admittedly, it is early in the year and I think there’s always going to be some ambivalence towards honoring Tom Cruise. (You just know that someone is having nightmares about him thanking David Miscavige in his Oscar speech.) But with the reviews and the box office success that Top Gun: Maverick is getting, it would be a mistake to dismiss it. After all, Mad Max: Fury Road came out around this same time of year in 2015. As well, one can be sure that A24 will be giving Everything Everywhere All At Once a heavy awards push as well. This could very well be the year of the genre blockbuster as far as the Oscars are concerned.
As for Cannes, it’s come and gone. George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing got some good reviews, even if those reviews didn’t translate into awards at the end of the Festival. David Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future sounds like it’s going to be too divisive for the Academy and really, the thought of Cronenberg winning an Oscar has always been a bit implausible, regardless of how much he may or may not deserve one. As for James Gray’s Armageddon Time, Gray has always been more popular with critics than with audiences or Academy voters. If Gray couldn’t break through with something like The Lost City of Z, I doubt he’s going to do so with an autobiographical film about his life in private school. Steven Spielberg already has the autobiography slot wrapped up with The Fabelmans.
Of course, there’s still many films left to see and many more film festivals to be held. Let us not forget that Martin Scorsese is bringing us Killers of the Flower Moon. Personally, I’m looking forward to Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. In short, nothing has been settled yet. For all the acclaim that Top Gun and Everything are getting, who knows how the race is going to look at the start of the Fall season?
Anyway, here are my predictions for May. Be sure to check out my predictions for February and March and April as well!
Best Picture
Amsterdam
Babylon
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
I Want To Dance With Somebody
Killers of the Flower Moon
Next Goal Wins
Rustin
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Director
Damien Chazelle for Babylon
Kasi Lemmons for I Want To Dance With Somebody
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
Taika Waititi for Next Goal Wins
Best Actor
Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick
Colman Domingo in Rustin
Idris Elba in Three Thousand Years of Longing
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Brad Pitt in Babylon
Best Actress
Naomi Ackie in I Want To Dance With Somebody
Cate Blanchett in Tar
Margot Robie in Babylon
Tilda Swinton in Three Thousand Years of Longing
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once
Now that the awards for last year’s films have been given out and everyone has already started to forget who won, we can start to concentrate on the next batch of Oscar contenders….
Oh, stop yelling. It’s not that early!
Well, actually, it is way too early. I mean, we’re still not really sure what is even going to be released this year. Due to all the COVID delays, we went into 2021 knowing which films we could look forward to, mostly because all of those films were originally supposed to be released in 2020. Compared to 2021, we’re going into 2022 blind. The majority of the films that we do know about don’t really sound like Oscar contenders, either.
So, really, the only solution to how to predict the Oscar nominees when you know nothing is to guess. The films and actors listed below are not there because I have any inside information. Instead, they are there as a result of some wishful thinking and some educated guesses. Killers of the Flower Moon was directed by Martin Scorsese, so of course it’s there. The Fabelmans is there because a lot of people feel that the Academy didn’t show Spielberg and West Side Story enough love this year and I think the fact that the film is autobiographical will make it irresistible to same voters who nominated Belfast. Napoleon is there because there might be some lingering guilt over how both Ridley Scott and The Last Duel were utterly ignored this year. Rustin is there because it’s an Obama production and Hollywood loves the Obamas. Chris Rock is listed as a supporting actor nominee because it would be the perfect conclusion to the saga of the Oscar Slap. David Lynch is listed because …. well, I like David Lynch. Personally, it’s doubtful that Tom Hanks will be able to pull off two nominations in one year but if anyone could do it, it’s Tom!
In other words, don’t take any of these predictions too seriously. As of now, there are no definite contenders. These are just some guesses.
Be sure to check out my even more random predictions for February as well!
Is it too early to start talking about next year’s Oscar race?
Of course, it is! But I’m going to do it anyway.
Below, you’ll find the installment of my monthly list of Oscar predictions, not for what will win at the end of March but instead for what we’ll see nominated next year. Obviously, there’s a lot that we don’t know about what’s going to happen later this year. Only a few of the movies listed below have firmly set release dates. Needless to say, I haven’t seen any of the films below and, as a result, I’m largely going on instinct. Who knows if the films will be as good as their plot descriptions? As much as I hate the overused quote from William Goldman, right now, no one knows anything. Indeed, it’s not really until Festival Season hits that we really start to get even a vaguely clear picture of the Oscar race and we’ve got a long way to go until Cannes.
(And really, it’s debatable how much of a factor Cannes really is. If the Oscar nominations were determined by Cannes, Red Rocket and The French Dispatch would be battling it out for best picture right now.)
The predictions below are, for the most part, just random guesses. Most of them involve people who have won Oscars in the past. The Fabelmans is there because it’s a Spielberg film, just as Killers of the Flower Moon makes the list because it’s directed by Martin Scorsese and it stars Leonard DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. And, of course, a lot of the predictions are just the result of wishful thinking on my part. I think it would be kind of fun if David Lynch got an acting nomination for his role in The Fabelmans, whatever that role may be. I also think it would be nice if Brendan Fraser got a nomination to go along with his recent comeback. I don’t know much about The Whale, beyond the fact that Fraser plays a 600-pound man trying to reconnect with his daughter. For now, that’s enough.
So, without further ado, here are my way too early Oscar predictions! As always, take them with a grain of salt.
Moving right along with my look back at 2018, here are 10 good things that I saw on television.
Please note, I did not say that these were the ten “best” things on television in 2018. Instead, these are ten things that I enjoyed enough that, in January of 2019, they still pop to my mind whenever I ask myself, “What did I enjoy last year?” As always, this is just my opinion and you’re free to agree or disagree.
Got it? Okay, let’s go!
Showtime reran Twin Peaks: The Return
Okay, so maybe I’m cheating a little here. Twin Peaks: The Return originally aired in 2017. You may remember that, for about 6 months, the Shattered Lens essentially became a Twin Peaks fan site. Still, I can’t begin to describe how excited I was to discover that, over the course of a weekend, Showtime would be reairing the entire series. I binged every episode and I discovered that, even with the benefit of hindsight, it’s still one of the greatest shows of all time. Unfortunately, the Emmy voters did not agree. Bastards.
2. The Alienist
It took me a little while to really get into The Alienist but, once I did, I found myself growing obsessed with not only the sets and the costumes but the mystery as well! Daniel Bruhl, Luke Evans, and Dakota Fanning all did excellent work and I can’t wait for the sequel!
3. Jesus Christ Superstar Live
I was skeptical. I had my doubts. I thought I’d spend the entire two and a half hours rolling my eyes. Jesus Christ Superstar proved me wrong.
4. The Americans
One of the best shows on television went out on a high note.
5. Barry
Barry premiered on HBO and it quickly became a favorite of mine. While I agree that Bill Hader and Henry Winkler deserve all of the attention that they’ve received, I’d also say that Stephen Root continues to prove himself to be one of our greatest character actors.
6. Big Brother
The reality show that so many love to hate finally had another good season. Since I get paid to write about the show for another site, that made me happy. Seriously, some of the previous seasons were painful to watch so Big Brother 20 was a huge relief. (Plus, BB 20 inspired everyone’s favorite twitter game: “Will Julie Chen Moonves show up tonight?”)
7. Maniac
As much fun as it is to complain about Netflix, occasionally they justify the price of their existence by giving us something like Maniac.
8. You
Sometimes, I loved this show. Sometimes, I absolutely hated it. However, I was always intrigued and never bored. I can’t wait to see what happens during season 2.
9. Trust
For all the attention that was given to The Assassination of Gianni Versace, Trust was the best FX true crime series of 2018. Along with an intriguing story, it also featured great performances from Donald Sutherland, Hillary Swank, and Brendan Fraser. (Yes, Brendan Fraser.)
10. Westworld
I know a lot of people didn’t care much for the latest season of Westworld. I loved it and, in the end, isn’t that what really matters?
That’s it for television! Coming up next, it’s the entry in Lisa’s look back at 2018 that we’ve all been waiting for, my picks for the best 26 films of the year!
Let’s continue to get caught up with 6 more reviews of 6 more films that I saw in 2014!
At Middleton (dir by Adam Rodgers)
“Charming, but slight.” I’ve always liked that term and I think it’s the perfect description for At Middleton, a dramedy that came out in January and did not really get that much attention. Vera Farmiga is a businesswoman who is touring colleges with her daughter (Taissa Farmiga, who is actually Vera’s younger sister). Andy Garcia is a surgeon who is doing the same thing with his son. All four of them end up touring Middleton College at the same time. While their respective children tour the school, Vera and Andy end up walking around the campus and talking. And that’s pretty much the entire film!
But you know what? Vera Farmiga and Andy Garcia are both such good performers and have such a strong chemistry that it doesn’t matter that not much happens. Or, at the very least, it doesn’t matter was much as you might think it would.
Hence, charming but slight.
Barefoot (dir by Andrew Fleming)
Well, fuck it.
Sorry, I know that’s not the best way to start a review but Barefoot really bothered me. In Barefoot, Scott Speedman plays a guy who invites Evan Rachel Wood to his brother’s wedding. The twist is that Wood has spent most of her life in a mental institution. Originally, Speedman only invites her so that he can trick his father (Treat Williams) into believing that Speedman has finally become a responsible adult. But, of course, he ends up falling in love with her and Wood’s simple, mentally unbalanced charm brings delight to everyone who meets her. I wanted to like this film because I love both Scott Speedman and Evan Rachel Wood but, ultimately, it’s all rather condescending and insulting. Yes, the film may be saying, mental illness is difficult but at least it helped Scott Speedman find love…
There’s a lot of good things that can be said about Divergent. Shailene Woodley is a likable heroine. The film’s depiction of a dystopian future is well-done. Kate Winslet has fun playing a villain. Miles Teller and Ansel Elgort are well-cast. But, ultimately, Divergent suffers from the same problem as The Maze Runner and countless other YA adaptations. The film never escapes from the shadow of the far superior HungerGamesfranchise. Perhaps, if Divergent had been released first, we’d be referring to the Hunger Games as being a Divergent rip-off.
However, I kind of doubt it. The Hunger Games works on so many levels. Divergent is an entertaining adventure film that features a good performance from Shailene Woodley but it’s never anything more than that. Considering that director Neil Burger previously gave us Interview with the Assassin and Limitless, it’s hard not to be disappointed that there’s not more to Divergent.
Gimme Shelter (dir by Ron Krauss)
Gimme Shelter, which is apparently based on a true story, is about a teenage girl named Apple (Vanessa Hudgens) who flees her abusive, drug addicted mother (Rosario Dawson). She eventually tracks down her wealthy father (Brendan Fraser), who at first takes Apple in. However, when he discovers that she’s pregnant, he demands that she get an abortion. When Apple refuses, he kicks her out of the house. Apple eventually meets a kindly priest (James Earl Jones) and moves into a shelter that’s run by the tough Kathy (Ann Dowd).
Gimme Shelter came out in January and it was briefly controversial because a lot of critics felt that, by celebrating Apple’s decision not to abort her baby, the movie was pushing an overly pro-life message. Interestingly enough, a lot of those outraged critics were men and, as I read their angry reviews, it was hard not to feel that they were more concerned with showing off their political bona fides than with reviewing the actual film. Yes, the film does celebrate Apple’s decision to keep her baby but the film also emphasizes that it was Apple’s decision to make, just as surely as it would have been her decision to make if she had chosen to have an abortion.
To be honest, the worst thing about Gimme Shelter is that it doesn’t take advantage of the fact that it shares its name with a great song by the Rolling Stones. Otherwise, it’s a well-done (if rather uneven) look at life on the margins. Yes, the script and the direction are heavy-handed but the film is redeemed by a strong performance from Vanessa Hudgens, who deserves to be known for more than just being “that girl from High School Musical.”
Heaven is For Real (dir by Randall Wallace)
You can tell that Heaven is For Real is supposed to be based on a true story by the fact that the main character is named Todd Burpo. Todd Burpo is one of those names that’s just so ripe for ridicule that you know he has to be a real person.
Anyway, Heaven Is For Real is based on a book of the same name. Todd Burpo (Greg Kinnear) is the pastor of a small church in Nebraska. After Todd’s son, Colton, has a near death experience, he claims to have visited Heaven where he not only met a sister who died before he was born but also had a conversation with Jesus. As Colton’s story starts to get national attention, Todd struggles to determine whether Colton actually went to Heaven or if he was just having a hallucination.
You can probably guess which side the movie comes down on.
Usually, as a self-described heathen, I watch about zero faith-based movies a year. For some reason, I ended up watching three over the course of 2014: Left Behind, Rumors of War, and this one. Heaven is For Real is not as preachy (or terrible) as Left Behind but it’s also not as much fun as Rumors of War. (Rumors of War, after all, featured Eric Roberts.) Instead, Heaven Is For Real is probably as close to mainstream as a faith-based movie can get. I doubt that the film changed anyone’s opinion regarding whether or not heaven is for real but it’s still well-done in a made-for-TV sort of way.
The Other Woman (dir by Nick Cassavetes)
According to my BFF Evelyn, we really liked The Other Woman when we saw it earlier this year. And, despite how bored I was with the film when I recently tired to rewatch it, we probably did enjoy it that first time. It’s a girlfriend film, the type of movie that’s enjoyable as long as you’re seeing it for the first time and you’re seeing it with your best girlfriends. It’s a lot of fun the first time you see it but since the entire film is on the surface, there’s nothing left to discover on repeat viewings. Instead, you just find yourself very aware of the fact that the film often substitutes easy shock for genuine comedy. (To be honest, I think that — even with the recent missteps of Labor Day and Men, Women, and Children — Jason Reitman could have done wonders with this material. Nick Cassavetes however…) Leslie Mann gives a good performance and the scenes where she bonds with Cameron Diaz are a lot of fun but otherwise, it’s the type of film that you enjoy when you see it and then you forget about it.
Through the Shattered Lens 