Review: Independence Day (dir. by Roland Emmerich)


“We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight! We’re going to live on! We’re going to survive! Today, we celebrate our Independence Day!” — President Whitmore

If you were around in the summer of 1996, you already know exactly where you were when you first saw the trailer for Independence Day. There was this massive shadow creeping over the moon, followed by that terrifying, booming sound effect, and then the White House just absolutely getting vaporized by a giant laser beam. It was a cultural moment. Director Roland Emmerich hadn’t really made his mark on Hollywood yet, but with this one movie, he essentially invented the modern summer blockbuster template of destroying famous global landmarks. Looking back at Independence Day almost three decades later, it is honestly wild how well this movie holds up, not as a piece of high art, but as a perfectly calibrated, ridiculously entertaining popcorn machine.

The premise is beautifully simple: massive alien spaceships suddenly appear over Earth’s major cities, they don’t come in peace, and humanity has to figure out how to fight back before we go the way of the dinosaurs. What makes the first act of the movie so effective is the slow build. Emmerich doesn’t just start with explosions; he lets the dread simmer. We see the massive ship hover over New York City, casting a shadow that blocks out the sun, and the sheer scale of the thing is awe-inspiring. Then, when the ships finally initiate their attack sequence, the payoff is spectacular. The practical effects combined with early CGI create these massive, rolling walls of fire that tear through iconic buildings. It is destructive poetry, and as a kid watching it, it was the most incredible thing I had ever seen. Even now, the destruction feels heavy and tactile in a way that modern, entirely computer-generated action sequences often don’t.

But a movie is only as good as its characters, and Independence Day has arguably one of the greatest ensemble casts of the 1990s. You have Will Smith playing Captain Steven Hiller, a fighter pilot who is desperately trying to get promoted while also dealing with his girlfriend, her son, and their dog. Smith is at the absolute peak of his early movie star charm here, delivering some of the most quotable one-liners in action movie history. Punching an alien in the face and yelling “Welcome to Earth!” is the kind of ridiculous machismo that only Smith could pull off without making you cringe. Then you have Jeff Goldblum as David Levinson, an MIT-educated cable repairman and environmentalist who figures out the alien signal is a countdown. Goldblum is basically doing his classic Goldblum thing—stuttering, eccentric, highly caffeinated—but it works perfectly because he serves as the perfect foil to Smith’s brute physicality.

The supporting cast is so deep that it feels like an Ocean’s Eleven of sci-fi tropes. Bill Pullman plays President Thomas J. Whitmore, and he gives the role an earnestness that elevates the material. He’s not an action hero; he’s a former fighter pilot who is clearly in over his head but steps up when his people need him most. You also have Judd Hirsch as Goldblum’s cranky, kvetching father, providing fantastic comic relief. Randy Quaid plays Russell Casse, a traumatized former pilot who was abducted by aliens years ago and is written off as a drunk by his small town, giving the movie an underdog storyline. And you can’t forget Brent Spiner as Dr. Okun, the wildly eccentric Area 51 scientist who gets way too excited about the alien biology. Every single one of these actors is fully committed to the bit, no matter how absurd the situation gets.

Now, if we are being completely honest, we have to talk about the plot, which is essentially held together with scotch tape and sheer willpower. The entire third act revolves around Goldblum and Smith flying a captured alien spacecraft up to the mothership to upload a computer virus using a 1996 Apple PowerBook. Yes, an Earth laptop somehow interfaces perfectly with an advanced extraterrestrial operating system, and yes, the aliens apparently don’t have McAfee, Norton or any kind of firewall to prevent a rudimentary human virus from crippling their entire defense grid. It is monumentally stupid if you think about it for even five seconds. But the secret to Independence Day is that it moves so fast and has so much momentum that you simply do not have time to care. The movie dares you to roll your eyes, but then it immediately distracts you with another massive explosion or a great quip from Will Smith, and you just go along for the ride.

The climax of the movie is a masterclass in cheesy, triumphant blockbuster filmmaking. Before the final aerial assault on the alien ships, President Whitmore gives a speech to the troops that has become completely ingrained in pop culture. “Today we celebrate our Independence Day!” he yells, and it is so incredibly corny, but I challenge you not to get at least a little bit pumped up when the music swells. The dogfight that follows is chaotic and thrilling, culminating in Randy Quaid’s character making the ultimate sacrifice by flying his jet directly into the alien weapon. It is exactly the kind of melodramatic, heroic moment that Emmerich excels at, and it hits the emotional beats it needs to hit, even if you saw it coming from a mile away.

You also have to appreciate how unapologetically intense the movie feels despite skating by with a PG-13 rating. People get vaporized, cities are leveled, and there is a genuine sense of apocalyptic dread that permeates the middle of the film. When the aliens first attack, Emmerich actually takes the time to show the aftermath, including cars blowing up in tunnels and people desperately trying to outrun the fireballs. Harvey Fierstein’s character dramatically dying while just sitting in his car, rolling up the window as if that’s going to stop a giant wall of alien fire, is a weirdly specific, dark comedy beat that you rarely see nowadays. The movie has real stakes, and you genuinely feel like humanity is on the brink of extinction.

It is crazy to think about the legacy of Independence Day and how it changed Hollywood. Before this, disaster movies were mostly relegated to B-movie status or Irwin Allen productions from the 1970s. Emmerich proved that you could blend disaster spectacle with sci-fi action and make an absolute fortune. This movie paved the way for Armageddon, Godzilla, The Day After Tomorrow, and essentially the entire concept of the modern cinematic destruction porn genre. They did eventually make a sequel, Independence Day: Resurgence, in 2016, but it completely missed the point of the original. It was too slick, too reliant on weightless CGI, and it lacked the ragtag, underdog charm that made the first one so special.

At the end of the day, Independence Day is just pure, unadulterated cinema comfort food. It does not demand anything from you as a viewer other than to sit back, suspend your disbelief, and enjoy the fireworks. It captures a very specific mid-90s vibe where movies could be big, dumb, loud, and incredibly fun without taking themselves too seriously. Roland Emmerich has directed a lot of movies since then where he has destroyed the world in various different ways, but he has never quite managed to capture the lightning in a bottle that he did here. Whenever the Fourth of July rolls around, or whenever you just need a reliable, edge-of-your-seat action movie to kill a couple of hours, Independence Day is always there, waiting to welcome you to Earth one more time.

Horror On TV: The Halloween That Almost Wasn’t (dir by Bruce Bilson)


Oh no!  Halloween might be canceled because people just aren’t scared of the old monsters!  Dracula (Judd Hirsch) calls all of the classic creatures to a meeting in his castle (where they all happen to be freeloading) and give them an ultimatum.  Be more scary!  It turns out to be easier said than done.

This originally aired in 1979 but, for people of a certain age, it achieved a certain immortality thanks to regular airings on the Disney Channel.  It’s a cute show.  It might seem a little bit corny today but that’s a large part of its appeal.  It’s a reminder of a more innocent time.

Warren the Werewolf, by the way, was named after Warren “Werewolves of London” Zevon.

#MondayMuggers – Why TOWER HEIST?


Every Monday night at 9:00 Central Time, my wife Sierra and I host a “Live Movie Tweet” event on X using the hashtag #MondayMuggers. We rotate movie picks each week, and our tastes are quite different. Tonight, Monday November 25th, we’re watching TOWER HEIST starring Ben Stiller, Eddie Murphy, Casey Affleck, Alan Alda, and Matthew Broderick.

So why did Sierra pick TOWER HEIST, you might ask? It’s simple. It’s a Thanksgiving movie. The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade is even used as a key part of the heist strategy! Sierra and I love the holidays and we’re getting in the spirit. We hope watching this movie will enhance your Thanksgiving week!

It’s on Amazon Prime, and we’ll be following along the theatrical edition (NOT the Extended Edition). Join us if you’d like!

Bonus Horror On TV: The Halloween That Almost Wasn’t (dir by Bruce Bilson)


Oh no!  Halloween might be canceled because people just aren’t scared of the old monsters!  Dracula (Judd Hirsch) calls all of the classic creatures to a meeting in his castle (where they all happen to be freeloading) and give them an ultimatum.  Be more scary!  It turns out to be easier said than done.

This originally aired in 1979 but, for people of a certain age, it achieved a certain immortality thanks to regular airings on the Disney Channel.  It’s a cute show.  It might seem a little bit corny today but that’s a large part of its appeal.  It’s a reminder of a more innocent time.

Warren the Werewolf, by the way, was named after Warren “Werewolves of London” Zevon.

Here Are The 2023 Nominations of The Film Independent Spirit Awards


The nominations of the Independent Spirit Awards were announced today.  While the Spirits are definitely an Oscar precursor, it’s important to remember that some of the year’s big contenders — Oppenheimer, Maestro, Rustin, Nyad, Barbie, Killers Of The Flower Moon – -are not eligible for the Spirits.

Of the film nominated for Best Feature, May December, Past Lives, and American Fiction seem to be the most likely to also show up when the Oscar nominations are announced next year.

Here are the nominees!  The winners will be announced on February 25th, 2024!

BEST FEATURE (Award given to the producer)
All of Us Strangers – Producers: Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Sarah Harvey
American Fiction – Producers: Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
May December – Producers: Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
Passages – Producers: Michel Merkt, Saïd Ben Saïd
Past Lives – Producers: David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
We Grown Now – Producers: Minhal Baig, Joe Pirro

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to director and producer)
All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt – Director: Raven Jackson, Producers: Maria Altamirano, Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski
Chronicles of a Wandering Saint – Director: Tomás Gómez Bustillo, Producers: Gewan Brown, Amanda Freedman
Earth Mama – Director/Producer: Savanah Leaf, Producers: Sam Bisbee, Shirley O’Connor, Medb Riordan, Cody Ryder
A Thousand and One – Director: A.V. Rockwell, Producers: Julia Lebedev, Rishi Rajani, Eddie Vaisman, Lena Waithe, Brad Weston
Upon Entry – Directors: Alejandro Rojas, Juan Sebastián Vásquez, Producers: Sergio Adrià, Carlos Juárez, Alba Sotorra, Carles Torras, Xosé Zapata

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $1,000,000 (Award given to the writer, director and producer)
The Artifice Girl – Director/Writer: Franklin Ritch, Producers: Aaron B. Koontz, Ashleigh Snead
Cadejo Blanco – Director/Writer/Producer: Justin Lerner, Producers: Mauricio Escobar, Ryan Friedkin, Jack Patrick Hurley
Fremont – Director/Writer: Babak Jalali, Writer: Carolina Cavalli, Producers: Rachael Fung, Chris Martin, Marjaneh Moghimi, George Rush, Sudnya Shroff, Laura Wagner
Rotting in the Sun – Director/Writer: Sebastián Silva, Writer: Pedro Peirano, Producer: Jacob Wasserman
The Unknown Country – Director/Writer/Producer: Morrisa Maltz, Writer: Lily Gladstone, Writers/Producers: Lainey Bearkiller Shangreaux, Vanara Taing, Producers: Katherine Harper, Laura Heberton, Tommy Heitkamp

BEST DIRECTOR
Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers
Todd Haynes – May December
William Oldroyd – Eileen
Ira Sachs – Passages
Celine Song – Past Lives

BEST SCREENPLAY
David Hemingson – The Holdovers
Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
Laura Moss & Brendan J. O’Brien – Birth/Rebirth
Emma Seligman & Rachel Sennott – Bottoms
Celine Song – Past Lives

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik – May December
Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman & Ben Platt – Theater Camp
Tomás Gómez Bustillo – Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Laurel Parmet – The Starling Girl
Alejandro Rojas & Juan Sebastián Vásquez – Upon Entry

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Jessica Chastain – Memory
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Trace Lysette – Monica
Natalie Portman – May December
Judy Reyes – Birth/Rebirth
Franz Rogowski – Passages
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Teo Yoo – Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Erika Alexander – American Fiction
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp
Anne Hathaway – Eileen
Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry
Marin Ireland – Eileen
Charles Melton – May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Catalina Saavedra – Rotting in the Sun
Ben Whishaw – Passages

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Marshawn Lynch – Bottoms
Atibon Nazaire – Mountains
Tia Nomore – Earth Mama
Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
Anaita Wali Zada – Fremont

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Katelin Arizmendi – Monica
Eigil Bryld – The Holdovers
Jomo Fray – All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
Pablo Lozano – Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Pat Scola – We Grown Now

BEST EDITING
Santiago Cendejas, Gabriel Díaz, Sofía Subercaseaux – Rotting in the Sun
Stephanie Filo – We Grown Now
Daniel Garber – How to Blow Up a Pipeline
Jon Philpot – Theater Camp
Emanuele Tiziani – Upon Entry

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast
Showing Up
Director: Kelly Reichardt
Casting Director: Gayle Keller
Ensemble Cast: André Benjamin, Hong Chau, Judd Hirsch, Heather Lawless, James Le Gros, John Magaro, Matt Malloy, Amanda Plummer, Maryann Plunkett, Denzel Rodriguez, Michelle Williams

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
Bye Bye Tiberias – Director: Lina Soualem, Producer: Jean-Marie Nizan
Four Daughters – Director: Kaouther Ben Hania, Producer: Nadim Cheikhrouha
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project – Directors/Producers: Joe Brewster, Michèle Stephenson, Producer: Tommy Oliver
Kokomo City – Director: D. Smith, Producers: Bill Butler, Harris Doran
The Mother of All Lies – Director/Producer: Asmae El Moudir

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
Anatomy of a Fall (France) – Director: Justine Triet
Godland (Denmark/Iceland) – Director: Hlynur Pálmason
Mami Wata (Nigeria) – Director: C.J. ‘Fiery’ Obasi
Tótem (Mexico) – Director: Lila Avilés
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom, Poland, USA) – Director: Jonathan Glazer

PRODUCERS AWARD
 Presented by Bulleit Frontier Whiskey – The Producers Award, now in its 27th year, honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films.

Rachael Fung
Graham Swon
Monique Walton

SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
The Someone to Watch Award, now in its 30th year, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition.

Joanna Arnow – Director of The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed
Laura Moss – Director of Birth/Rebirth
Monica Sorelle – Director of Mountains

TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD 
The Truer Than Fiction Award, now in its 29th year, is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition.

Set Hernandez – Director of unseen
Jesse Short Bull, Laura Tomaselli – Director of Lakota Nation vs. United States
Sierra Urich – Director of Joonam

BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Deadlocked: How America Shaped the Supreme Court
Executive Producers: Vinnie Malhotra, Aaron Saidman, Eli Holzman, Dawn Porter
Dear Mama
Executive Producers: Lasse Järvi, Quincy ‘QD3’ Jones III, Staci Robinson, Nelson George, Charles D. King, Peter Nelson, Adel ‘Future’ Nur, Jamal Joseph, Ted Skillman, Allen Hughes, Steve Berman, Marc Cimino, Jody Gerson, John Janick, Nicholas Ferrall, Nigel Sinclair
Murder in Big Horn
Executive Producers: Matthew Galkin, Vinnie Malhotra
Co-Executive Producers: Lisa Kalikow, Joshua Levine
Stolen Youth: Inside the Cult at Sarah Lawrence
Executive Producers: Mindy Goldberg, Dan Cogan, Liz Garbus, Jon Bardin, Zach Heinzerling, Krista Parris, Daniel Barban Levin, Felicia Rosario
Co-Executive Producer: Julie Gaither
Wrestlers
Executive Producers: Greg Whiteley, Ryan O’Dowd
Co-Executive Producers: Alejandro Melendez, Adam Leibowitz

BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Beef
Creator/Executive Producer: Lee Sung Jin
Executive Producers: Steven Yeun, Ali Wong, Jake Schreier, Ravi Nandan, Alli Reich
Co-Executive Producers: Alice Ju, Carrie Kemper
Dreaming Whilst Black
Creator/Executive Producer: Adjani Salmon
Creators: Maximilian Evans, Natasha Jatania, Laura Seixas
Executive Producers: Tanya Qureshi, Dhanny Joshi, Bal Samra, Thomas Stogdon
I’m a Virgo
Creator/Executive Producer: Boots Riley
Executive Producers: Tze Chun, Michael Ellenberg, Lindsey Springer, Jharrel Jerome, Rebecca Rivo
Co-Executive Producers: Marcus Gardley, Carver Karaszewski
Jury Duty
Creators/Executive Producers: Lee Eisenberg, Gene Stupnitsky
Executive Producers: David Bernad, Ruben Fleischer, Nicholas Hatton, Cody Heller, Todd Schulman, Jake Szymanski, Andrew Weinberg
Slip
Creator/Executive Producer: Zoe Lister-Jones
Executive Producers: Ro Donnelly, Dakota Johnson, Katie O’Connell Marsh, David Fortier, Ivan Schneeberg

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Emma Corrin – A Murder at the End of the World
Dominique Fishback – Swarm
Betty Gilpin – Mrs. Davis
Jharrel Jerome – I’m a Virgo
Zoe Lister-Jones – Slip
Bel Powley – A Small Light
Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
Ramón Rodríguez – Will Trent
Ali Wong – Beef
Steven Yeun – Beef

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Murray Bartlett – The Last of Us
Billie Eilish – Swarm
Jack Farthing – Rain Dogs
Nick Offerman – The Last of Us
Adina Porter – The Changeling
Lewis Pullman – Lessons in Chemistry
Benny Safdie – The Curse
Luke Tennie – Shrinking
Olivia Washington – I’m a Virgo
Jessica Williams – Shrinking

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Clark Backo – The Changeling
Aria Mia Loberti – All the Light We Cannot See
Adjani Salmon – Dreaming Whilst Black
Keivonn Montreal Woodard – The Last of Us
Kara Young – I’m a Virgo

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Jury Duty
Ensemble Cast: Alan Barinholtz, Susan Berger, Cassandra Blair, David Brown, Kirk Fox, Ross Kimball, Pramode Kumar, Trisha LaFache, Mekki Leeper, James Marsden, Edy Modica, Kerry O’Neill, Rashida Olayiwola, Whitney Rice, Maria Russell, Ishmel Sahid, Ben Seaward, Ron Song, Evan Williams

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for December


Here they are!  These are my final Oscar predictions for 2022.  The critics groups have certainly helped to show us which films are major contenders.  That said, the Guilds are even more important so I can’t wait to see who they nominate and honor in January.

be sure to check out my predictions for FebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember, October, and November!

Best Picture

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

Best Director

Todd Field for TAR

Baz Luhrmann for Elvis

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Gabriel LaBelle in The Fabelmans

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Brad Pitt in Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Woman Talking

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Dolly de Leon in Triangle of Sadness

Janelle Monáe in Glass Onion

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


We are right on the cusp of Awards Season, which means that the Oscar race is about to become a bit more clear!

Below, you’ll find my predictions for November!  In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, and October!

Best Picture

Aftersun

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Best Director

Todd Field for TAR

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Charlotte Wells for Aftersun

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Viola Davis in The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Margot Robbie in Babylon

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Women Talking

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Claire Foy in Women Talking

Nina Hoss in Tar

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Horror On TV: The Halloween That Almost Wasn’t (dir by Bruce Bilson)


Oh no!  Halloween might be canceled because people just aren’t scared of the old monsters!  Dracula (Judd Hirsch) calls all of the classic creatures to a meeting in his castle (where they all happen to be freeloading) and give them an ultimatum.  Be more scary!  It turns out to be easier said than done.

This originally aired in 1979 but, for people of a certain age, it achieved a certain immortality thanks to regular airings on the Disney Channel.  It’s a cute show.  It might seem a little bit corny today but that’s a large part of its appeal.  It’s a reminder of a more innocent time.

Warren the Werewolf, by the way, was named after Warren “Werewolves of London” Zevon.

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Even though Horrorthon has taken up the majority of my time this October, I still have been watching as this year’s Oscar race has developed over the past 29 days.  And that’s a good thing because it’s time for my monthly predictions!

Below, you’ll find my predictions for October!  In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September!

Best Picture

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

She Says

TAR

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Best Director

Chinonye Chukwu for Till

Todd Field for TAR

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin

Hugh Jackman in The Son

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Best Actress

Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Olivia Colman in Empire of Light

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Women Talking

Claire Foy in Women Talking

Nina Hoss in Tar

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Carey Mulligan in She Says

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For September


Horrorthon, my favorite time of year, starts tomorrow!  However, before we get lost in the scary season, I want to take one last look at awards season!  It’s time for me to update my Oscar nominations.  Fortunately, thanks to all of the recent festival premieres, the Oscar picture is finally starting to look a little bit clearer.  There’s still a lot of question marks out there and, as always, anything can happen.  But, finally, I can say that there’s more to my predictions that just lucky guesses and wishful thinking.

Below, you’ll find my predictions for September!  In order to see how my thinking has evolved over the course of the year, be sure to check out my predictions for February, March, April, May, June, July, and August.

Best Picture

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

The Menu

TAR

Till

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

A few thoughts on the (potential) nominees:

Babylon, I will admit, I’m including because of the trailer and the fact that it’s a Damien Chazelle film about Hollywood.  The Academy likes films about itself and one can argue that after what happened when La La Land was nominated, Chazelle is owed at least a little bit of recognition.  Then again, that same argument could have been made for First Man and we know how that turned out.

As for The Menu, I’ve got that in my surprise nominee slot.  There’s almost always at least one potential nominee that’s considered to be a long shot until the nominations are announced.  Now that we have a set number of ten nominees, the chances that one nominee will be a surprise seems even more certain than before.

Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, and Everything Everywhere All At Once all came out early in the year but they’ve all achieved the box office success necessary to be remembered.

Till seems like the type of film that the Academy will want to acknowledge, especially with the presidential election right around the corner.

The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, TAR, and Women Talking were all acclaimed when they made their festival debuts.  Banshees, in particular, went from being a probable also-ran to a surefire contender based on the length of the standing ovation that it received.

Best Director

Chinonye Chukwu for Till

Todd Field for TAR

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Insherin

Sarah Polley for Women Talking

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Elvis

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Insherin

Ralph Fiennes in The Menu

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Best Actress

Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Cate Blanchett in TAR

Olivia Colman in Empire of Light

Danielle Deadwyler in Till

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Insherin

Tom Hanks in Elvis

Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in Women Talking

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sally Field in Spoiler Alert

Frances McDormand in Women Talking

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery