Let’s be honest.
Predicting the Oscar nominees is not an exact science. The fact of the matter is that a lot of it is guesswork, especially in the early months of the year.
“Oh, Scorsese has a movie coming out? Well, Martin Scorsese’s movies are always nominated!”
“Last year’s best seller is being adapted into a movie? The Academy loves best sellers!”
“David Fincher’s directing High School Musical 4? I LOVE DAVID FINCHER! Best Picture for sure!”
That’s why, every year, there are films that seem like they’re guaranteed to reap Oscar glory. These are the films that, in July, are listed on all of the awards sites as probable best picture nominees. And every year, several of those sure shots turn out to actually be long shots.
Since Arleigh founded Through the Shattered Lens back in 2009, there’s been many guaranteed Best Picture contenders that, when the nominations were announced, were nowhere to be found. Here are just 8 examples:
1. J. Edgar (dir by Clint Eastwood)
Remember how Leonardo DiCaprio was going finally win his first Oscar for playing J. Edgar Hoover in the 2011 Oscar biopic? There was also some speculation that Armie Hammer would pick a supporting nod and, of course, the film was going to be a best picture nominee. Then the movie came out, fell flat, and received not a single Oscar nomination.
2. The Dark Knight Rises (dir by Christopher Nolan)
I was not as big of a fan of this movie as some people who write for this site. In fact, I thought it was kind of a mess. Still, back in 2012, a lot of people assumed the Academy would make up for not nominating The Dark Knight by nominating the sequel. (In a particular noxious example of fanboy culture, Christy Lemire was attacked online when she gave The Dark Knight Rises its first negative review.) For all of the hyper and controversy, The Dark Knight Rises was totally ignored when the 2012 Oscar nominations were announced.
3. The Monuments Men (dir by George Clooney)
As strange as it may seem today, this now-forgotten World War II film was originally considered to be a surefire Oscar contender. Throughout most of 2013, the majority of the experts on Gold Derby listed The Monuments Men as their number one prediction for Best Picture. The logic was that it was based on an interesting true story, it featured Bill Murray in a serious role, and it was directed by George Clooney. Then, suddenly, the release date was pushed back to 2014. That was the first sign of trouble. Then the movie came out and it turned out to be a complete mess, one that underused Murray and which reminded us that, regardless of his skill as an actor, George Clooney is a remarkably dull director.
4. Lee Daniel’s The Butler (dir by Lee Daniels)
From 2013, this is a good example of a film that tried so hard to be an Oscar contender that it basically knocked itself right out of contention. Between the blind and dated worship of JFK and John Cusack’s performance as Richard Nixon, this film almost seemed like a parody of a bad Oscar contender.
5. Interstellar (dir by Christopher Nolan)
Personally, I liked 2014’s Interstellar more than I liked The Dark Knight Rises but ultimately, this turned out to be just another Christopher Nolan film that didn’t get much of a reaction from the Academy. (Despite the nominations given to both Dunkirk and Inception, it’s hard not to feel that the Academy will always resent Nolan for being both successful and ambitious.)
6. Joy (dir by David O. Russell)
Many of us thought it would be one of the films to be nominated for best picture of 2015. That was until we actually saw the damn thing. David O. Russell’s worst movie still managed to net Jennifer Lawrence a nomination but not much else.
7. Silence (dir by Martin Scrosese)
Martin Scrosese’s 2016 passion product was expected to be a major contender and, on many sites, it was listed as a probable winner all the way through December. However, when the nominations were announced, Silence only received one nomination, for cinematography.
8. Logan (dir by James Mangold)
At the start of 2017, a lot of critics stated that Logan might be the first comic book movie ever nominated for Best Picture. For a month or two, I certainly thought it would be. Ultimately, though, it only picked up a nomination for adapted screenplay.
Which 2018 sure short will turn into a long shot? We’ll find out next year!
You’re the leader of the free world and a masked terrorist has just launched a deadly attack on a major U.S. city. He has blown up a major sporting event on national television. He has killed the mayor. He is allowing a crazy sociopath to preside over show trials. The terrorist demands that you neither send troops into the city nor do you aid anyone who is trying to leave. What do you? If you are the President played by William Devane in The Dark Knight Rises, you say, “Okay,” and then breathe a sigh of relief when Batman turns out not to be dead after all. William Devane also played JFK in The Missiles of October and President James Heller on 24. Neither of them would have backed down to Bane as quickly as the President in The Dark Knight Rises.
Hey, Mr. President, when Snake Plisskin nearly gets killed trying to save your life, you might want to try showing a little gratitude. Escape From New York ends with Snake asking The President who he feels about all the people who died rescuing him from New York. When the President can only mutter a few words of regret, Snake responds by destroying the tape that would have presumably prevented World War IV. Way to go, Mr. President! Would it have killed you to shed a few crocodile tears, at least over the fate of Cabbie?
In a word, overrated. Yes, President Whitmore did lead the army that repealed the alien invaders but he would not have had to do that in the first place if he had prevented the Earth from being invaded in the first place. How many warning signs did the Whitmore administration ignore until it was too late? And how much funding did his administration cut from the military that the Air Force was left in such poor shape that they could get shown up by Randy Quaid in a crop duster? As for Whitmore’s famous speech and the battle that followed, a sequel to Independence Day is coming in June so he must not have done that good of a job of scaring the aliens off.
