It’s time for me to list my Oscar predictions. As far as wild speculation is concerned, the current Oscar race still feels like it’s off to a slow start. There seems to be a general assumption that The Odyssey is going to dominate both the nominations and the awards, and that there isn’t much point in considering what else could be nominated.
I do think The Odyssey is going to be a big contender. I also think Project Hail Mary will still be in the conversation at year’s end. Fjord won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, which has become a fairly good precursor for nominations, if not for the actual awards. As for the rest of the nominees, it’s still pretty much a guessing game at this point.
Here are a few of my guesses:
Digger will not be the powerhouse some people are predicting. Even when he was winning Oscars, Alejandro G. Iñárritu was still a dreadfully pretentious and self-important director. That tendency has only increased in the years since he won his second directing Oscar.
Michael will get a lot of hype, but it won’t be nominated for much because of the controversy around Michael Jackson’s later legal troubles. Colman Domingo might still get in, because the Academy always enjoys nominating someone for playing a bad father.
The Social Reckoning and Ink will both get middling reviews, but both will be nominated for reasons that have more to do with politics than quality.
Wild Horse Nine will be nominated but, like most of Martin McDonagh’s films, people will either love it or hate it. John Malkovich will be a strong contender for Best Actor, if only because he’s not getting any younger and this might be the Academy’s last chance to honor one of the best actors of his generation. Either Steve Buscemi or Sam Rockwell will be nominated for Supporting Actor. I went with Buscemi because he’s never been nominated before.
The Debut, I Play Rocky, and Mr. Irrelevant will benefit from being crowd-pleasers.
In the style of Siân Heder’s previous film, CODA, Being Heumann will be the nominee that nobody really thinks about until after it’s actually nominated.
You can check out my predictions from March, April, May, June, and July to see how my thinking has evolved over the year.
Best Picture Being Heumann The Debut Fjord I Play Rocky Ink Mr. Irrelevant The Odyssey Project Hail Mary The Social Reckoning Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Ink
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Best Actor
David Corenswet, Mr. Irrelevant
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Best Supporting Actor
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Matt Dillon, I Play Rocky
Colman Domingo, Michael
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Best Supporting Actress
Colleen Camp, Club Kid
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
As you look over my latest Oscar predictions, you may notice that I’ve dropped two films that I originally had listed as major contenders. Disclosure Day opened to mixed reviews and it really seems to have vanished from the cultural conversation in the wake of the release of The Odyssey. Digger has not opened yet but I just get the feeling that this is going to be another pretentious Alejandro Iñárritu film. Whenever anyone mentions the previous victory of Birdman, it always seems to be done with a slight bit of embarrassment. I think Iñárritu’s time as an Oscar favorite might be over.
These predictions below are based on what’s been released, what will be playing at the major festivals, which trailers generated excitement (hello I Play Rocky!), which films are most likely to appeal to the Academy’s political biases (hello Ink and The Social Reckoning) and, as always, a lot of wishful thinking on my part. (Hello I Play Rocky again!)
To see how my thinking has or has not evolved, check out my picks for March, April, May, and June!
Best Picture
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Being Heumann
The Debut
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
Ink
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
These predictions are still too early to be taken seriously. The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned. That said, here are my predictions for June!
Check out my predictions for March and April and May!
Best Picture
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Digger
Dune Part Three
Fatherland
Fjord
I Play Rocky
Primetime
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
These predictions are still too early to really be taken seriously. The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned. That said, here are my predictions for May!
“I am happy. You no die. Let’s save planets!” — Rocky
Project Hail Mary delivers a crowd-pleasing space adventure that captures the spirit of Andy Weir’s bestselling novel without reinventing the sci-fi wheel. Ryan Gosling shines as the reluctant hero, carrying the film through its mix of brainy puzzles and heartfelt moments. Directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, this big-budget adaptation balances wonder with some familiar tropes, making it a solid popcorn flick for fans of hard science fiction laced with humor.
The story kicks off with Dr. Ryland Grace, a brilliant but socially awkward science teacher played by Gosling, who wakes up alone on a spaceship hurtling through the solar system. He has amnesia, no crewmates, and a mission he can’t quite remember—saving Earth from a mysterious microbe called Astrophage that’s dimming the sun and threatening global catastrophe. As Grace pieces together his past through flashbacks, we see how he went from a disgraced academic debunking fringe theories to humanity’s last-ditch savior. The setup echoes The Martian, Weir’s previous hit, with its lone survivor using wit and science to beat impossible odds.
Gosling nails the everyman genius vibe, blending wide-eyed confusion with deadpan quips that keep things light. His Grace is no stoic astronaut; he’s a guy who’d rather teach middle school than lead a suicide mission, cracking jokes about his fear of commitment even as he’s rigging experiments with duct tape and hope. The performance anchors the film’s emotional core, especially in quieter moments where Grace grapples with isolation and doubt. Sandra Hüller adds gravitas as Eva Stratt, the no-nonsense project leader who strong-arms world governments into action—she’s all icy efficiency, a nice counterpoint to Gosling’s rumpled charm.
Lord and Miller, the duo behind The Lego Movie and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, bring their signature visual flair to the vastness of space. The Hail Mary ship feels lived-in and jury-rigged, with practical sets that pop against sweeping CGI vistas of alien planets and swirling Astrophage clouds. Early scenes use dreamlike tilts and blurred transitions to mirror Grace’s foggy memory, creating a disorienting but captivating rhythm. It’s not always seamless—the nonlinear structure can jolt you out of the immersion—but it builds tension effectively as revelations stack up.
Screenwriter Drew Goddard, who collaborated with Weir on The Martian, stays faithful to the book’s plot beats and scientific grounding. Astrophage isn’t just a plot device; it’s a clever microorganism that feeds on starlight, explained through Grace’s whiteboard scribbles and explosive demos. The film dives into real astrophysics—like orbital mechanics and xenobiology—without dumbing it down, yet it keeps the pace brisk with problem-solving montages set to a retro-futuristic score. Think Guardians of the Galaxy vibes, complete with a catchy farewell tune that hits surprisingly hard.
About halfway through, the story pivots to its most memorable element: Grace’s encounter with Rocky, an alien engineer from the 40 Eridani system. Voiced and puppeteered by James Ortiz, Rocky is a spider-like creature with a high-pitched ammonia-breathing voice, communicated via a bulky translation rig à la Arrival. Their friendship is the heart of Project Hail Mary, turning a solo survival tale into a buddy sci-fi romp. The xenolinguistics—figuring out math and music as common ground—feels fresh and fun, with practical effects making Rocky endearing rather than creepy.
That said, the film isn’t flawless. Clocking in around two hours, it rushes some of the book’s deeper world-building, like the global panic on Earth or the crew’s backstories, which get condensed into quick flashbacks. Grace’s arc from coward to hero leans on a simple mantra—”bravery is fighting for someone else”—that’s uplifting but predictable. It doesn’t push cinematic boundaries like Interstellar or Dune, settling for feel-good spectacle over profound philosophy. The massive budget shows in the polish, but it occasionally feels like a theme-park ride: thrilling set pieces, like a high-stakes EVA gone wrong, prioritize awe over subtlety.
Visually, the film excels in its alien encounters and spacewalk sequences, with IMAX-friendly shots of Eridani b’s jagged landscapes and bioluminescent horrors. The Astrophage effects are a standout—tiny, shimmering specks that swarm like deadly fireflies, rendered with meticulous detail. Sound design amplifies the isolation, from the hum of life support to Rocky’s echolocating chirps. It’s all wrapped in a score that mixes orchestral swells with synth grooves, evoking 80s space operas while feeling modern.
Thematically, Project Hail Mary champions collaboration across species and borders, a timely nod amid real-world divisions. Grace’s growth isn’t just about smarts; it’s about vulnerability, learning to trust Rocky despite zero shared language or biology. The film handles this with sincerity, avoiding preachiness by grounding it in humor—imagine two nerds bonding over thermodynamics while one’s in a pressurized suit and the other’s a five-eyed rock. It’s optimistic sci-fi that posits curiosity as humanity’s superpower, even if the execution stays safely within blockbuster lanes.
Supporting cast fleshes out the ensemble without stealing focus. Tracy Letts chews scenery as a blustery politician, while smaller roles like the multinational crew add diversity to the stakes. Production design nods to NASA realism, with the Beetle probes (Grace’s mini-shuttles) stealing scenes in their plucky, R2-D2 fashion. Pacing dips in the mid-act info dumps, but Goddard trims the fat smartly, ensuring the climax—a desperate race against entropy—delivers white-knuckle payoff.
Early reactions praise its fidelity to Weir’s page-turner, with fans thrilled by the faithful visuals and emotional beats. Detractors might call it formulaic, but in a genre crowded with grimdark dystopias, this one’s a breath of fresh (oxygenated) air. It’s not the most original sci-fi, but it’s entertaining as hell, blending laughs, tears, and light-speed thrills.
For book purists, the adaptation honors the source without copying verbatim—key twists land with impact, and the science holds up under scrutiny. Weir himself has endorsed it, chatting about Rocky’s creation and making quantum mechanics accessible. If you’re burned out on capes or zombies, Project Hail Mary offers smart, hopeful escapism that sticks the landing.
Ultimately, this is peak “movie medicine”—a fun, moving reminder that lone wolves become legends with the right friends, human or otherwise. Gosling’s charisma, paired with Lord and Miller’s playful direction, makes it soar higher than its plot alone might suggest. Worth the ticket for any sci-fi buff craving brains with their spectacle; just don’t expect it to redefine the stars.