It’s that time of the month again.
It’s time for me to list my Oscar predictions. As far as wild speculation is concerned, the current Oscar race still feels like it’s off to a slow start. There seems to be a general assumption that The Odyssey is going to dominate both the nominations and the awards, and that there isn’t much point in considering what else could be nominated.
I do think The Odyssey is going to be a big contender. I also think Project Hail Mary will still be in the conversation at year’s end. Fjord won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, which has become a fairly good precursor for nominations, if not for the actual awards. As for the rest of the nominees, it’s still pretty much a guessing game at this point.
Here are a few of my guesses:
- Digger will not be the powerhouse some people are predicting. Even when he was winning Oscars, Alejandro G. Iñárritu was still a dreadfully pretentious and self-important director. That tendency has only increased in the years since he won his second directing Oscar.
- Michael will get a lot of hype, but it won’t be nominated for much because of the controversy around Michael Jackson’s later legal troubles. Colman Domingo might still get in, because the Academy always enjoys nominating someone for playing a bad father.
- The Social Reckoning and Ink will both get middling reviews, but both will be nominated for reasons that have more to do with politics than quality.
- Wild Horse Nine will be nominated but, like most of Martin McDonagh’s films, people will either love it or hate it. John Malkovich will be a strong contender for Best Actor, if only because he’s not getting any younger and this might be the Academy’s last chance to honor one of the best actors of his generation. Either Steve Buscemi or Sam Rockwell will be nominated for Supporting Actor. I went with Buscemi because he’s never been nominated before.
- The Debut, I Play Rocky, and Mr. Irrelevant will benefit from being crowd-pleasers.
- In the style of Siân Heder’s previous film, CODA, Being Heumann will be the nominee that nobody really thinks about until after it’s actually nominated.
You can check out my predictions from March, April, May, June, and July to see how my thinking has evolved over the year.
Best Picture
Being Heumann
The Debut
Fjord
I Play Rocky
Ink
Mr. Irrelevant
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Ink
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Best Actor
David Corenswet, Mr. Irrelevant
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Best Supporting Actor
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Matt Dillon, I Play Rocky
Colman Domingo, Michael
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Best Supporting Actress
Colleen Camp, Club Kid
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Through the Shattered Lens 