Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For July


As you look over my latest Oscar predictions, you may notice that I’ve dropped two films that I originally had listed as major contenders.  Disclosure Day opened to mixed reviews and it really seems to have vanished from the cultural conversation in the wake of the release of The OdysseyDigger has not opened yet but I just get the feeling that this is going to be another pretentious Alejandro Iñárritu film.  Whenever anyone mentions the previous victory of Birdman, it always seems to be done with a slight bit of embarrassment.  I think Iñárritu’s time as an Oscar favorite might be over.

These predictions below are based on what’s been released, what will be playing at the major festivals, which trailers generated excitement (hello I Play Rocky!), which films are most likely to appeal to the Academy’s political biases (hello Ink and The Social Reckoning) and, as always, a lot of wishful thinking on my part.  (Hello I Play Rocky again!)

To see how my thinking has or has not evolved, check out my picks for March, April, May, and June!

Best Picture

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Being Heumann

The Debut

Dune: Part Three

Fjord

Ink

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

The Social Reckoning

Wild Horse Nine

Best Director

David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary

Cristian Mungiu for Fjord

Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey

Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three

Best Actor

David Corenswet in Mr. Irrelevant

Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary

Anthony Ippolito in I Play Rockly

John Malkovich in Wild Horses

Robert Pattinson in Primetime

Best Actress

Ellen Burstyn in Place To Be

Sandra Huller in Fatherland

Ruth Madeley in Being Heumann

Julianne Moore in The Debut

Renate Reinsve in Fjord

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Buscemi in Wild Horse Nine

Matt Dillon in I Play Rocky

Paul Giamatti in The Debut

Guy Pearce in Ink

Jeremy Strong in The Social Reckoning

Best Supporting Actress

Pamela Anderson in Place To Be

Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey

Samantha Morton in The Odyssey

Parker Posey in Wild Hose Nine

AnnaSophia Robb in I Play Rocky

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For June


These predictions are still too early to be taken seriously.  The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned.  That said, here are my predictions for June!

Check out my predictions for March and April and May!

Best Picture

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Digger

Dune Part Three

Fatherland

Fjord

I Play Rocky

Primetime

Project Hail Mary

The Social Reckoning

Wild Horse Nine

Best Director

David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary

Cristian Mungiu for Fjord

Pawel Pawlikowski for Fatherland

Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three

Best Actor

Tom Cruise in Digger

Rami Malek in The Man I Love

John Malkovich in Wild Hose Nine

Robert Pattinson in Primetime

Dominic Sessa in Tony

Best Actress

Daisy Edgar-Jones in Sense and Sensibility

Sandra Huller in Fatherland

Mikey Madison in The Social Reckoning

Julianne Moore in No One Cares

Renate Reinsve in Fjord

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Buscemi in Wild Horse 9

Colman Domingo in Michael

Matt Dillon in I Play Rocky

John Goodman in Digger

Jeremy Strong in The Social Reckoning

Best Supporting Actress

Sandra Huller in Project Hail Mary

Scarlett Johansson in Paper Tiger

Tao Okamoto in All Of A Sudden

Parker Posey in Wild Horse Nine

AnnaSophia Robb in I Play Rocky

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For May


These predictions are still too early to really be taken seriously.  The year is getting off to a slow start as far as the Oscars are concerned.  That said, here are my predictions for May!

Check out my predictions for March and April!

Best Picture

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Digger

Dune Part Three

Fatherland

Fjord

I Play Rocky

Primetime

Project Hail Mary

The Social Reckoning

Wild Horse Nine

Best Director

David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary

Cristian Mungiu for Fjord

Pawel Pawlikowski for Fatherland

Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three

Best Actor

Tom Cruise in Digger

Rami Malek in The Man I Love

John Malkovich in Wild Hose Nine

Robert Pattinson in Primetime

Dominic Sessa in Tony

Best Actress

Daisy Edgar-Jones in Sense and Sensibility

Sandra Huller in Fatherland

Mikey Madison in The Social Reckoning

Julianne Moore in No One Cares

Renate Reinsve in Fjord

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Buscemi in Wild Horse 9

Colman Domingo in Michael

Matt Dillon in I Play Rocky

John Goodman in Digger

Jeremy Strong in The Social Reckoning

Best Supporting Actress

Sandra Huller in Project Hail Mary

Scarlett Johansson in Paper Tiger

Tao Okamoto in All Of A Sudden

Parker Posey in Wild Horse Nine

AnnaSophia Robb in I Play Rocky

Fjord Wins At Cannes


Well, another Cannes Film Festival has come to a close.  Here in America, coverage of this year’s festival felt considerably more low-key than previous festivals.  In fact, the conventional wisdom — again, here in America — seems to be that this year’s festival was a disappointment.  Personally, I think there’s just some hurt feelings that only two American films were selected to compete this year.

Neither Paper Tiger nor The Man I Love won anything.  (Fear not, I’m sure that James Gray will be back with another drama about the Russian mafia next year.)  Instead, the Palme d’Or went to Fjord, a film about a traditional Catholic family that finds itself being targeted by a group of progressives.  The Guardian gave Fjord a negative review so I imagine it’s pretty good.  I look forward to seeing it.  It should be noted that, as of the last few years, winning the Palme d’Or has been a plus when it comes to a film’s Oscar chances.  (Even the now universally-derided Emilia Perez starting things off by winning at Cannes.)  We’ll see if the same holds true for Fjord.

Here are the winners from Cannes:

Palme d’Or: Fjord by Cristian Mungiu
Grand Prix: Minotaur by Andrey Zvyagintsev
Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure by Valeska Grisebach
Best Director:
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo for The Black Ball
Paweł Pawlikowski for Fatherland
Best Actress: Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto for All of a Sudden
Best Actor: Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne for Coward
Best Screenplay: Emmanuel Marre for A Man of His Time

Un Certain Regard
Un Certain Regard Prize: Everytime by Sandra Wollner
Jury Prize: Elephants in the Fog by Abinash Bikram Shah
Special Jury Prize: Iron Boy by Louis Clichy
Best Actress: Daniela Marín Navarro, Marina de Tavira and Mariangel Villegas for Forever Your Maternal Animal
Best Actor: Bradley Fiomona Dembeasset for Congo Boy

Caméra d’Or
Caméra d’Or: Ben’Imana by Marie Clémentine Dusabejambo

Short Films Competition
Short Film Palme d’Or: For the Opponents by Federico Luis

I, Daniel Blake Wins At Cannes And Americans Ask, “Who Is Ken Loach And Who Does He Play For?”


The winners of this year’s Cannes Film Festival have just been announced!

As I look over these winners and think about the rather muted reviews that came out of Cannes this year, I have to ask: Is it just me or is 2016 shaping up to be a fairly blah year for the movies?

I mean, just think about last year at this time.  Everyone at the Cannes Film Festival was excited over Carol.  People were still talking about how much they loved Brooklyn and End of The Tour at Sundance.  Both Mad Max: Fury Road and Ex Machina were playing in theaters.  Inside Out was on the verge of being released and people were whispering that Straight Outta Compton might actually be a great movie.  There was a lot to be excited about!

This year, however, it’s just like, “Who cares?”  Even the excitement that some people have for Nate Parker’s Birth of a Nation and Martin Scorsese’s Silence feels more obligatory than sincere.

(Did Sasha Stone go to Cannes this year?  I know I could check the Awards Daily web site but, as of late, reading Awards Daily has become almost as tedious as reading the Daily Kos.  But I mention Stone specifically because she epitomizes something that I’ve noticed about almost all of the big names in the online film community. They are currently more concerned with bitching about this meaningless and stupid election than in talking about movies.  Even when they do talk about movies, it’s always in relation to this election.  BLEH!  Political situations are only temporary.  Movies are forever.)

Anyway, just from what I did hear back from Cannes, I’m looking forward to seeing Personal Shopper, Elle, The Neon Demon, Toni Edrmann, and American Honey.  I doubt I’ll get a chance to see the Palme D’or winner because it’s a Ken Loach film and Ken Loach films rarely get much distribution in the U.S.

In fact, when Ken Loach won the Palme d’Or (and this is his second time to win), he immediately started trending on twitter.  In the UK, he was trending because people were saying, “Ken Loach won!”  In the US, he was trending because everyone who is not a member of Film Twitter was saying, “Who is Ken Loach and who does he play for?”

(As for how this will affect the upcoming Oscar race, it probably won’t.  With the exception of the year that Tree of Life won the Palme d’Or and then went on to to score a best picture nomination, Cannes is usually ignored by the Oscar voters.)

Anyway, here’s the winners!

COMPETITION

Palme d’Or: “I, Daniel Blake” (Ken Loach, U.K.)

Grand Prix: “It’s Only the End of the World” (Xavier Dolan, Canada-France)

Director (tie): Olivier Assayas, “Personal Shopper” (France), and Cristian Mungiu, “Graduation” (Romania)

Actor: Shahab Hosseini, “The Salesman” (Iran)

Actress: Jaclyn Jose, “Ma ‘Rosa” (Philippines)

Jury Prize: Andrea Arnold, “American Honey” (U.K.-U.S.)

Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, “The Salesman” (Iran)

OTHER PRIZES

Palme d’Honneur: Jean-Pierre Léaud

Camera d’Or: “Divines” (Houda Benyamina, France-Qatar)

Short Films Palme d’Or: “Timecode” (Juanjo Jimenez, Spain)

Special Mention – Short Films Palme d’Or: “The Girl Who Danced With the Devil” (Joao Paulo Miranda Maria, Brazil)

Ecumenical Jury Prize: “It’s Only the End of the World” (Xavier Dolan, Canada-France)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

Un Certain Regard Prize: “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki” (Juho Kuosmanen, Finland)

Jury prize: “Harmonium” (Koji Fukada, Japan)

Director: Matt Ross, “Captain Fantastic” (United States)

Screenplay: Delphine and Muriel Coulin, “The Stopover” (France)

Special Jury Prize: Michael Dudok de Wit, “The Red Turtle” (France-Japan)

DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT

Art Cinema Award: “Wolf and Sheep” (Shahrbanoo Sadat)

Society of Dramatic Authors and Composers Prize: “The Together Project” (Solveig Anspach)

Europa Cinemas Label: “Mercernary” (Sacha Wolff)

CRITICS’ WEEK

Grand Prize: “Mimosas” (Oliver Saxe)

Visionary Prize: “Album” (Mehmet Can Mertoğlu)

Society of Dramatic Authors and Composers Prize: “Diamond Island” (Day Chou)

FIPRESCI

Competition: “Toni Erdmann” (Maren Ade, Germany-Austria)

Un Certain Regard: “Dogs” (Bogdan Mirică, Romania-France)

Critics’ Week: “Raw” (Julia Ducournau, France-Belgium)