As you look over my latest Oscar predictions, you may notice that I’ve dropped two films that I originally had listed as major contenders. Disclosure Day opened to mixed reviews and it really seems to have vanished from the cultural conversation in the wake of the release of The Odyssey. Digger has not opened yet but I just get the feeling that this is going to be another pretentious Alejandro Iñárritu film. Whenever anyone mentions the previous victory of Birdman, it always seems to be done with a slight bit of embarrassment. I think Iñárritu’s time as an Oscar favorite might be over.
These predictions below are based on what’s been released, what will be playing at the major festivals, which trailers generated excitement (hello I Play Rocky!), which films are most likely to appeal to the Academy’s political biases (hello Ink and The Social Reckoning) and, as always, a lot of wishful thinking on my part. (Hello I Play Rocky again!)
To see how my thinking has or has not evolved, check out my picks for March, April, May, and June!
Best Picture
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Being Heumann
The Debut
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
Ink
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
The Social Reckoning
Wild Horse Nine
Best Director
David Fincher for The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller for Project Hail Mary
Cristian Mungiu for Fjord
Christopher Nolan for The Odyssey
Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three
Best Actor
David Corenswet in Mr. Irrelevant
Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary
Anthony Ippolito in I Play Rockly
John Malkovich in Wild Horses
Robert Pattinson in Primetime
Best Actress
Ellen Burstyn in Place To Be
Sandra Huller in Fatherland
Ruth Madeley in Being Heumann
Julianne Moore in The Debut
Renate Reinsve in Fjord
Best Supporting Actor
Steve Buscemi in Wild Horse Nine
Matt Dillon in I Play Rocky
Paul Giamatti in The Debut
Guy Pearce in Ink
Jeremy Strong in The Social Reckoning
Best Supporting Actress
Pamela Anderson in Place To Be
Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey
Samantha Morton in The Odyssey
Parker Posey in Wild Hose Nine
AnnaSophia Robb in I Play Rocky
Through the Shattered Lens 