Ryusuke Hamaguchi | Through the Shattered Lens

Well, the year’s nearly over and that means that it is time for me to post my final Oscar predictions for 2021. The race has gotten much clearer with the start of the precursor season. The critics love The Power of the Dog. However, it’s perhaps a bit too early to declare it the front runner. I want to see how things go with the Guilds in January before I bestow that title on any film.

A few thoughts:

There are ten Best Picture nominees this year so we won’t have any of that, “Here’s a random number of nominees” crap. In theory, that should open the door for some unconventional nominees that might have missed the cut-off in previous years. Again, I said, “In theory.” They tried this 10 nominee thing before and it didn’t really lead to the results that a lot of people were expecting.

Still, I’m going to swing out on a web and predict a Best Picture nomination for Spider-Man: No Way Home. It’s got Disney and Sony behind it. It’s making a ton of money despite not playing in China. It’ the film that’s currently giving the industry hope that there’s a future outside of the streaming sites. Plus, after the nominations of Black Panther and Joker, it might be time to give the whole “They’ll never nominate a comic book movie!” argument a rest.

I’m also going to predict a Best Picture nomination for Drive My Car, which has been getting a lot of attention from the critics.

The critics also loved West Side Story but now, it’s probably best known for being a bust at the box office. I still think the movie will be nominated but I don’t think it’ll win. And I think it’s a lot less likely that Rita Moreno will pick up a nomination. People seem to have moved on from the movie. Again, this could all change once the Guilds start announcing their nominations.

The critics are split on Don’t Look Up. I personally think it’s one of the worst films of 2021. But the film will be nominated for much the same reason that The Big Short and Vice were nominated. There’s a lot of Academy members who agree with McKay’s politics. And the people who do like Don’t Look Up really, really like it. And I also think there’s probably enough people annoyed with Elon Musk that Mark Rylance will sneak into the supporting actor race.

Belfast has not been dominating the early part of awards season but I think it will come on strong once the Guilds start announce their nominations.

Anywya, these are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September and October and November!