It’s that time of month! Here are my Oscar predictions from March. As you can tell by comparing this month’s predictions to my predictions for January and February, I’ve learned a bit more about the films that will be coming out over the next few months and I’ve changed my mind on quite a few of the early contenders.
That said, at this time last year, no one had even heard of Moonlight. At this point, almost all of these predictions are the result of wishful thinking, random guesses, and gut instinct.
Battles of the Sexes
Call Me By Your Name
The Glass Castle
The Leisure Seeker
I went back and forth on whether or not to include Logan in my predictions. On the one hand, I think it could be nominated. On the other hand, regardless of how acclaimed it may be, it is also a comic book movie that came out in March. In the end, since these predictions are mostly just for fun at this point, I decided to imagine a situation where — like Mad Max: Fury Road two years ago — the film’s box office carries it through the summer and it gets some needed support from the precursors in December.
(For the record, if I had decided not to include Logan, I would have replaced it with Blade Runner 2049.)
James Mangold for Logan
Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name
Alexander Payne for Downsizing
Dee Rees for Mudbound
Joe Wright for Darkest Hour
If Logan were to get a best picture nomination, I imagine that James Mangold would get a nomination along with it.
Chadwick Boseman in Marshall
Tom Cruise in American Made
Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
Miles Teller in Thank You For Your Service
Donald Sutherland in The Leisure Seeker
The two additions here are Teller and Sutherland. Teller seems destined to be nominated some day, assuming that he spends more time making films like Whiplash and less time on stuff like Fantastic Four. Despite a long and distinguished career, Sutherland has never been nominated. In The Leisure Seeker, he plays a man suffering from Alzheimer’s. It sounds like a role for which he could not only be nominated but for which he could also win.
Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul
Brie Larson in The Glass Castle
Helen Mirren in The Leisure Seeker
Carey Mulligan in Mudbound
Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes
The two new contenders here are Mirren and Larson. Mirren always has to be considered to be a contender and Larson’s upcoming film, The Glass Castle, sounds like pure Oscar bait.
Best Supporting Actor
James Franco in The Masterpiece
Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson in The Glass Castle
John Hurt in Darkest Hour
Patrick Stewart in Logan
Yes, I’m still predicting that James Franco will be nominated for playing Tommy Wiseau. It may be wishful thinking on my part but so be it. Every year, Armie Hammer seems to be on the verge of being nominated for something. Harrelson is included as a part of The Glass Castle package. Stewart is overdue for a nomination. As for John Hurt, he was nominated but never won an Oscar during his lifetime. Darkest Hour could provide the Academy with a chance to honor the man’s distinguished career, in much the same way that The Dark Knight allowed them to honor Heath Ledger.
Best Supporting Actress
Holly Hunter in The Big Sick
Melissa Leo in Novitiate
Julianne Moore in Wonderstruck
Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour
Naomi Watts in The Glass Castle
I don’t know much about Moore’s role in Wonderstruck but the film is directed by Todd Haynes, a filmmaker who previously directed Moore in her finest performance in Safe.