Here Are The SAG Nominations for 2017!


Mudbound

As far as Oscar precursors are concerned, all of the critic groups are fun to follow but the guilds are what you really need to pay attention to.  The reason is simple enough.  Critics may have influence but they’re not members of the Academy.

The Guilds, on the other hand, do include members who are voting members of the Academy.  And the biggest branch of the Academy is the Actors Branch.  That’s why the Screen Actors Guild nominations are traditionally viewed as being one of the most important of the precursors.

Of course, getting a SAG nomination does not always translate into an Oscar nomination.  It’s rare that the SAG noms and the Oscar noms line up 100%.  I can still remember, back in 2015, when we were all briefly excited when Beasts of No Nation and Straight Outta Compton picks up Best Ensemble nominations.  Of course, when the Oscar noms came out, Compton got one nomination and Beasts was totally shut out.

Another thing to keep in mind is that, according to Clayton Davis on Awards Circuit, the screeners for The Post and Phantom Thread weren’t sent out in time for either of those movies to be a factor in the voting.  Believe me, I was really excited when it seemed as if The Post had been totally snubbed.  The last thing I want to do next year is have to sit through another one of Meryl Streep’s speeches about how she’s just an average, middle class person from New Jersey who went to public school.  (Meryl always comes across like the type who would brag about being on a first name basis with her maid.)  But, it would appear that there is a perfectly understandable reason for The Post‘s lack of a nomination.

Anyway, here’s my main takeaways:

  1. Get Out‘s Daniel Kaluuya is emerging as a pretty strong contender for best actor.  I’d be surprised if he actually won over Timothee Chalamet and Gary Oldman but it does more and more likely that he will at least receive a nomination.
  2. Denzel Washington for Roman Israel, Esq?  Did anyone actually see that movie?  I didn’t so I don’t know if Denzel’s nomination was deserved or not.  Washington got a Golden Globe nomination as well.
  3. The biggest surprises in Best Supporting Actor?  Not only did Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg not get nominated but Steve Carell did.
  4. My favorite nomination is The Big Sick for Best Ensemble.
  5. Mudbound keeps its Oscar hopes alive, with its nomination here.
  6. I don’t have a sixth reason but I don’t do odd numbers.

Here are the film nominations:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
THE BIG SICK
GET OUT
LADY BIRD
MUDBOUND
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
James Franco, THE DISASTER ARTIST
Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT
Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR
Denzel Washington, ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Judi Dench, VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Margot Robbie, I, TONYA
Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD

Outstanding Performance by Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Steve Carell, BATTLE OF THE SEXES
Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Richard Jenkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER
Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige, MUDBOUND
Hong Chau, DOWNSIZING
Holly Hunter, THE BIG SICK
Allison Janney, I, TONYA
Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
BABY DRIVER
DUNKIRK
LOGAN
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
WONDER WOMAN

The Big Sick

Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions for May


Be sure to check out my predictions for April, March, February, and January!

Best Picture

Battles of the Sexes

Blade Runner 2049

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

The Disaster Artist

Downsizing

Dunkirk

The Glass Castle

Mudbound

Wonderstruck

 

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Dee Rees for Mudbound

Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049

Joe Wright for Darkest Hour

 

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Marshall

Tom Cruise in American Made

Matt Damon in Downsizing

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

Miles Teller in Thank You For Your Service

 

Best Actress

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Kirsten Dunst in Woodshock

Brie Larson in The Glass Castle

Carey Mulligan in Mudbound

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

 

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Carell in Battle of the Sexes

James Franco in The Disaster Artist

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson in The Glass Castle

Jason Mitchell in Mudbound

 

Best Supporting Actress

Holly Hunter in The Big Sick

Melissa Leo in Novitiate

Julianne Moore in Wonderstruck

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Naomi Watts in The Glass Castle

Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Check out my previous predictions for March, February, and January!

Best Picture

Battles of the Sexes

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

The Glass Castle

The Leisure Seeker

Logan

Mudbound

Wonderstruck

 

Best Director

James Mangold for Logan

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Dee Rees for Mudbound

Joe Wright for Darkest Hour

 

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Marshall

Tom Cruise in American Made

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

Miles Teller in Thank You For Your Service

Donald Sutherland in The Leisure Seeker

 

Best Actress

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Brie Larson in The Glass Castle

Helen Mirren in The Leisure Seeker

Carey Mulligan in Mudbound

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

 

Best Supporting Actor

James Franco in The Masterpiece

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson in The Glass Castle

John Hurt in Darkest Hour

Patrick Stewart in Logan

 

Best Supporting Actress

Holly Hunter in The Big Sick

Melissa Leo in Novitiate

Julianne Moore in Wonderstruck

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Naomi Watts in The Glass Castle

Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions For March


2013 oscars

It’s that time of month!  Here are my Oscar predictions from March.  As you can tell by comparing this month’s predictions to my predictions for January and February, I’ve learned a bit more about the films that will be coming out over the next few months and I’ve changed my mind on quite a few of the early contenders.

That said, at this time last year, no one had even heard of Moonlight.  At this point, almost all of these predictions are the result of wishful thinking, random guesses, and gut instinct.

Best Picture

Battles of the Sexes

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

The Glass Castle

The Leisure Seeker

Logan

Mudbound

Wonderstruck

I went back and forth on whether or not to include Logan in my predictions.  On the one hand, I think it could be nominated.  On the other hand, regardless of how acclaimed it may be, it is also a comic book movie that came out in March.  In the end, since these predictions are mostly just for fun at this point, I decided to imagine a situation where — like Mad Max: Fury Road two years ago — the film’s box office carries it through the summer and it gets some needed support from the precursors in December.

(For the record, if I had decided not to include Logan, I would have replaced it with Blade Runner 2049.)

 

Best Director

James Mangold for Logan

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Dee Rees for Mudbound

Joe Wright for Darkest Hour

If Logan were to get a best picture nomination, I imagine that James Mangold would get a nomination along with it.

 

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Marshall

Tom Cruise in American Made

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

Miles Teller in Thank You For Your Service

Donald Sutherland in The Leisure Seeker

The two additions here are Teller and Sutherland.  Teller seems destined to be nominated some day, assuming that he spends more time making films like Whiplash and less time on stuff like Fantastic Four.  Despite a long and distinguished career, Sutherland has never been nominated.  In The Leisure Seeker, he plays a man suffering from Alzheimer’s.  It sounds like a role for which he could not only be nominated but for which he could also win.

 

Best Actress

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Brie Larson in The Glass Castle

Helen Mirren in The Leisure Seeker

Carey Mulligan in Mudbound

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

The two new contenders here are Mirren and Larson.  Mirren always has to be considered to be a contender and Larson’s upcoming film, The Glass Castle, sounds like pure Oscar bait.

 

Best Supporting Actor

James Franco in The Masterpiece

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson in The Glass Castle

John Hurt in Darkest Hour

Patrick Stewart in Logan

Yes, I’m still predicting that James Franco will be nominated for playing Tommy Wiseau.  It may be wishful thinking on my part but so be it.  Every year, Armie Hammer seems to be on the verge of being nominated for something.  Harrelson is included as a part of The Glass Castle package.  Stewart is overdue for a nomination.  As for John Hurt, he was nominated but never won an Oscar during his lifetime.  Darkest Hour could provide the Academy with a chance to honor the man’s distinguished career, in much the same way that The Dark Knight allowed them to honor Heath Ledger.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Holly Hunter in The Big Sick

Melissa Leo in Novitiate

Julianne Moore in Wonderstruck

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Naomi Watts in The Glass Castle

I don’t know much about Moore’s role in Wonderstruck but the film is directed by Todd Haynes, a filmmaker who previously directed Moore in her finest performance in Safe.

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