Well, since the big show is tomorrow, I guess it’s time for me to try to predict what I think will win. Up until four weeks ago, I would thought Power of the Dog would be the obvious front runner but CODA seems to be the film that people are responding too. The same is true of Penelope Cruz, who went from being an also-ran to the new front runner in just a matter of days.
In short, this Oscar race is up in the air. Almost anything could happen. It should be exciting, though I think most people will be tuning in not to see who wins but to see how bad the show is.
Anyway, here are my predictions! We’ll see how right I am (or how wrong I am) tomorrow night!
Best Picture — CODA
Best Director — Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Actor — Will Smith, King Richard
Best Actress — Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Supporting Actor — Troy Kostur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress — Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay — The Worst Person In The World
Best Adapted Screenplay — CODA
Best Animated Feature Film — Encanto
Best International Film — Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature — Attica
Best Documentary Short Subject — Audible
Best Live Action Short Film — The Long Goodbye
Best Animated Short Film — Affairs of the Art
Best Original Score — Dune
Best Original Song — Dos Origuitas from Encanto
Best Sound — West Side Story
Best Production Design — Dune
Best Cinematography — The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design — Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The Detroit Film Critics Society announced their nominations for the best of 2021 earlier today. It’s an interesting group of nomination, though I would point out that Detroit is usually one of the quirkier of the critics groups. Every awards season, they nominate something or someone unexpected, there’s a brief flurry of excitement, and then everyone moves on.
I guess that’s one reason why I love them.
Anyway, here’s their nominations:
BEST PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker – Red Rocket
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
David Lowery – The Green Knight
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up
Lan-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom!
BEST ACTOR
Nicolas Cage – Pig
Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!
Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter
Will Smith – King Richard
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Nicole Kidman – Being The Ricardos
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jon Bernthal – King Richard
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jared Leto – House Of Gucci
Ray Liotta – The Many Saints Of Newark
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power Of The Dog
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst – The Power Of The Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Rita Moreno – West Side Story
Diana Rigg – Last Night In Soho
BEST ENSEMBLE
CODA
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
House Of Gucci
BREAKTHROUGH
Alana Haim – Actress – Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones – Actress – CODA
Woody Norman – Actor – C’mon C’mon
Agathe Rousselle – Actress – Titane
Emma Seligman – Writer/Director – Shiva Baby
BEST USE OF MUSIC/SOUND
Cyrano
In The Heights
Last Night In Soho
Tick, Tick…Boom!
West Side Story
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
The Green Knight
In The Heights
The Power Of The Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Belle
Cryptozoo
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Flee
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
The Sparks Brothers
Street Gang: How We Got To Sesame Street
Summer Of Soul
It’s time for me to do my monthly Oscar predictions. Again, as I’ve said in the past, the majority of these predictions are based on a combination of instinct and wishful thinking. However, the picture may become a bit clearer as early as the end of this week. With the Venice and Telluride film festivals right around the corner and Toronto also swift approaching, critics are finally going to get a chance to see some of the contenders and, as the early reviews come in, it should be easier to pick the probable nominees from the also-rans.
Personally, I will curious to see how people react to Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. Among the other possibilities that we’ll be hearing about: Spencer, King Richard, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Last Duel, and Belfast.
If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July!
It’s that time of the month again! It’s time for me to make my early Oscar predictions.
This year, the Cannes Film Festival really didn’t clear much up. TheFrenchDispatch was acclaimed but, in every review, there was an admission that, for everyone who absolutely loved it, there would probably be someone else who would absolutely hate it. I did decided to include RedRocket on my list of predictions, based on the Cannes reaction. I’m still not a 100% convinced that it’s going to be a contender, of course. But the idea of a Simon Rex movie being nominated for best picture was just too wonderfully strange for me to ignore. That’s the same logic that led to me including Pig as a best picture nominee, by the way.
On the Ridely Scott front, the overacting in the trailer for HouseofGucci really turned me off so I dropped it from all of my predictions. TheLastDuel looks like it might have a chance, however.
Anyway, the main thing to remember when looking at these predictions is that the majority of them are just random guesses, based on hunches and past Academy behavior. So, as always, take them with several grains of salt.
If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June!
It’s the end of the month and that means that it’s time for me to post my monthly predictions!
What has chanced since I last made my predictions in May? Though it was acclaimed by critics, the box office failure of InTheHeights has probably ended that film’s time as an Oscar contender. For all the musicals that are coming out this year, only Spielberg’s WestSideStory really seems like a good bet to emerge as a major contender. DearEvanHansen was pretty much eliminated from consideration as soon as its trailer dropped. Tick, Tick….Boom seems to be destined to be loved by theater kids while being dismissed by everyone else. I’d love to see Joe Wright and Peter Dinklage nominated but my instincts are telling me that Cyrano will probably not be a huge contender. In the end, WestSideStory seems like the most likely musical nominee.
I’ve been reading up on Jane Campion’s ThePoweroftheDog, which is set to premiere at Venice and then be released via Netflix. Based on a novel by Thomas Savage, this sounds like the type of film that could potentially be a strong contender, depending on what approach Campion takes the story. The main character of Phil Burbank is the type of bigger-than-life role that could lead to Oscar glory. (The closest recent equivalent to Phil would probably be Daniel Day-Lewis in ThereWillBeBlood.) Phil is a sharply intelligent but cruelly manipulative Montana rancher, the type who brags about castrating cattle while quoting Ovid and who goes out of his way to bully anyone who he considers to be effeminate. Of course, there’s a secret behind all of Phil’s cruelty and how the film handles that secret will have a lot to do with how strongly the film comes on during awards season. Phil is being played by Benedict Cumberbatch, which is …. interesting casting. (Personally, I probably would have begged Michael Fassbender to take the role.) Still, it seems like Phil could be the type of change-of-pace role that, should Cumberbatch’s casting pay off, could lead to Oscar glory.
Coming up in July, we’ve got Cannes and we’ll be getting our first look at contenders like Wes Anderson’s TheFrenchDispatch. Though Cannes is hardly a reliable precursor, the Oscar race should start to become a bit clearer as the festival start up and the contenders — many of which we’ve been waiting to see for over two years — will finally start to be released. Until then, take all predictions with a grain of salt!
If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May.
Through the Shattered Lens 