It’s time for me to share my early Oscar predictions! With the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals currently underway, the Oscar picture does seem to be a little bit less murky. But then again, we should remember that appearances can be deceiving. Last year, at this time, most people were still expecting a First Man vs. Beale Street vs. A Star is Born Oscar race.
These predictions below take into account the reports that have been coming back from Telluride and Venice. If you want to see how my thinking has evolved over the year, be sure to check out my predictions from January, February, March, April, May, June, and July!
And now, for what their worth, here are my predictions for August:
Best Picture
1917
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari
Harriet
A Hidden Life
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Waves
Best Director
Kasi Lemmons for Harriet
Terrence Malick for A HIdden Life
Sam Mendes for 1917
Trey Edward Shults for Waves
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas in Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
We’re at the halfway mark as far as 2019 in concerned, which means that the Oscar race is about to start getting a lot more clear. Soon, instead of random guesses, we’ll be making educated guesses. Then again, it is important to remember that — at this time last year — no one thought Bohemian Rhapsody would score a best picture nomination. In fact, only a few people have ever heard about Green Book.
So, as always, take my monthly predictions with a grain of salt. They’re based on a combination what I’m hearing (and reading) from other film people and my own instincts (for whatever their worth). To be honest, I suppose that these predictions reflect my own prejudices as well. I’d love to see Terrence Malick honored, for instance. I also think that it’s a crime that Amy Adams hasn’t ever won an Oscar so I have her listed, even though I fear she might be miscast as the lead in The Woman In The Window. At the same time, I’m bored with Meryl Streep getting nominated just for showing up so I left her out of my predictions, even though she has two high-profile films coming out later this year.
To see how my thinking has (or hasn’t) evolved, check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, and May!
And now, here are the predictions!
Best Picture
1917
A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood
Cats
Fair and Balanced
Harriet
A Hidden Life
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The Peanut Butter Falcon
Best Director
Kasi Lemmons for Harriet
Terrence Malick for A Hidden Life
Sam Mendes for 1917
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas in Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon On A Time In Hollywood
It’s time for me to offer up my early Oscar predictions!
These will be my first set of predictions since the Cannes Film Festival. It’s always debatable just how much of an influence Cannes will actually have on the Oscar voting. A victory at Cannes pretty much led to Tree of Life receiving an Oscar nomination and it certainly didn’t harm the chances of BlackKklansman last year. While Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and Terrence Malick’s A Hidden Life may not have picked up any major awards at Cannes, the positive critical reception that both of those films received can only help. The same can be said of The Lighthouse, which was shown out of competition. Finally, the Cannes jury gave its best actor award to Antonio Banderas and, for now, that’s enough for me to add him to my list of predicted nominees.
So, without any further ado, here are my predictions for May! If you want to see how my thinking has evolved over the year, be sure to also check out my predictions for January, February, March, and April!
Best Picture
1917
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Fair and Balanced
The Goldfinch
Harriet
A Hidden Life
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Best Director
Kasi Lemmons for Harriet
Terrence Malick for A Hidden Life
Sam Mendes for 1917
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas in Pain & Glory
Willem DaFoe in The Lighthouse
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
The 2019 Cannes FIlm Festival is over and here’s what won! Interestingly enough, for all the critical acclaim and excitement that greeted Tarantino’s Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and Terrence Malick’s A Hidden Life, the jury ignored both of them.
COMPETITION
Palme d’Or: Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite” Grand Prize: Mati Diop, “Atlantique” Director: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne, “Young Ahmed” Jury Prize (tie): Ladj Ly, “Les Misérables” and Kleber Mendonça Filho and Juliano Dornelles, “Bacurau” Actor: Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory” Actress: Emily Beecham, “Little Joe” Screenplay: Celine Sciamma, “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” Special Mention Prize: “It Must Be Heaven,” Elia Suleiman
CAMERA D’OR (across all sections)
César Diaz, “Our Mothers”
UN CERTAIN REGARD
Un Certain Regard Award: “The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao,” Karim Ainouz Jury Prize: “The Fire Will Come,” Oliver Laxe Best Director: Kantemir Balagov, “Beanpole” Best Performance: Chiara Mastroianni, “On a Magical Night” Un Certain Regard “Heart” Prize: “The Climb” and “A Brother’s Love” Special Jury Prize: Albert Serra, “Liberte” Special Jury Mention: “Joan of Arc,” Bruno Dumont
CRITICS’ WEEK
Nespresso Grand Prize: “I Lost My Body,” Jérémy Clapin Leitz Cine Discovery Prize for Short Film: “She Runs,” Qiu Yang Louis Roederer Foundation Rising Star Award: Ingvar E. Sigurðsson, “A White, White Day” Gan Foundation Award for Distribution: The Jokers Films, French distributor for “Vivarium” by Lorcan Finnegan SACD Award: César Díaz, “Our Mothers” Canal+ Award for Short Film: “Ikki Illa Meint,” Andrias Høgenni
FIPRESCI
In Competition: “It Must Be Heaven,” Elia Suleiman Un Certain Regard: “Beanpole,” Kantemir Balagov Parallel Selection: “The Lighthouse,” Robert Eggers
DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT
Europa Cinemas Label Award for Best European Film: “Alice and the Mayor,” Nicolas Pariser SACD Award for Best French-language Film: “An Easy Girl” Rebecca Zlotowski Illy Short Film Award: “Stay Awake, Be Ready,” Pham Thien An Carrosse d’Or: John Carpenter
ECUMENICAL PRIZE
Prize of the Ecumenical Jury: “A Hidden Life,” Terrence Malick
GOLDEN EYE
“For Sama,” Waad al-Khateab and Edward Watts Special Prize: “The Cordillera of Dreams,” Patricio Guzman
QUEER PALM
Queer Palm Award: “Portrait of a Lady on Fire,” Céline Sciamma Short Film Queer Palm: “The Distance Between Us and the Sky,” Vasilis Kekatos
4 Shots From 4 Films is just what it says it is, 4 shots from 4 of our favorite films. As opposed to the reviews and recaps that we usually post, 4 Shots From 4 Films lets the visuals do the talking.
To be honest, it’s always a good day to do 4 shots from 4 Terrence Malick films but today’s specific inspiration was the acclaim that has greeted Malick’s latest film, A Hidden Life, at Cannes. Critics are saying that A Hidden Life marks Malick’s “return to greatness.”
Personally, I don’t think Malick had to return because he never left. Even his more uneven works all have moments of greatness and visual beauty. These four shots below come from four of Malick’s films that weren’t quite as acclaimed as Days of Heaven or Tree of Life. These are four films that were not nominated for best picture. They received mixed reviews. However, regardless of what the critics may have said at the time of their release, there’s a beauty to all four of them and, watching them today, it’s hard not to feel that their statue will grow as time goes on. All four of them reveal an artist unlike any other. All of four of them remind us that Terrence Malick is an important and vibrant cinematic force.
As of right now, I am greatly looking forward to seeing A Hidden Life. Until that film gets released over here in the U.S., here are….
4 Shots From 4 Films is just what it says it is, 4 shots from 4 of our favorite films. As opposed to the reviews and recaps that we usually post, 4 Shots From 4 Films lets the visuals do the talking.
Today is Texas Independence Day!
In honor of my home state, here are….
4 Shots From 4 Texas Films
Dazed and Confused (1993, dir by Richard Linklater)
Continuing our look at good films that were not nominated for best picture, here are 6 films from the 1970s.
Dirty Harry (1971, dir by Don Siegel)
“Well, I’m all torn up about his rights….” Detective Harry Callahan (Clint Eastwood) says after being informed that he’s not allow to torture suspects for information. Unfortunately, in this case, the Academy agreed with all the critics who called Harry a menace and this classic and influential crime film was not nominated. Not even Andy Robinson picked up a nomination for his memorably unhinged turn as Scorpio.
Carrie (1976, dir by Brian DePalma)
The Academy liked Carrie enough to nominate both Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, respectively. The film itself, however, went unnominated. It’s enough to make you want to burn down the prom.
Suspiria (1977, dir by Dario Argento)
In a perfect world, Goblin would have at least taken home an Oscar for the film’s score. In the real world, unfortunately, Argento’s masterpiece was totally snubbed by the Academy.
Days of Heaven (1978, dir by Terence Malick)
If it were released today, Terence Malick’s dream-like mediation of life during the depression would definitely be nominated. In 1978, perhaps, the Academy was still not quite sure what to make of Malick’s beautiful but often opaque cinematic poetry.
Halloween (1978, dir by John Carpenter)
“The night he came home!” should have been “The night he went to the Oscars!” The film received no nominations and it’s a shame. Just imagine Donald Pleasence winning for his performance as Loomis while John Carpenter racked up almost as many nominations as Alfonso Cuaron did this year for Roma.
Dawn of the Dead (1978, dir by George Romero)
If the Academy wasn’t willing to nominate Night of the Living Dead, there was no way that they would go for the film’s longer and bloodier sequel. But perhaps they should have. Few films are cited as an inspiration as regularly as Dawn of the Dead.
You’re watching a movie called Song to Song. It’s about beautiful people in a beautiful city.
In this case, the city is Austin, Texas. The people are all involved in the Austin music scene and they’re played by actors like Ryan Gosling, Rooney Mara, Natalie Portman, Michael Fassbender, and Cate Blanchett. A good deal of Song to Song was filmed at the Austin City Limits festival and several real-life musicians appear as themselves, though only Patti Smith is on screen long enough to make much of an impression. To be honest, both the music and Austin are almost incidental to the film. Though the movie was sold as an Austin film and it premiered at SXSW, it could have just as easily taken place in Ft. Worth.
The film is made up of short, deliberately obscure shots. The camera never stops moving, floating over images of sunsets, sunrises, and oddly empty streets. Because the film was shot with a wide-angle lens, you’re never not aware of the expanse around the characters. At times, all of those beautiful film stars run the risk of become specks on the landscape, as if the film itself is taunting the characters for thinking that they are more important than nature.
Who are the characters? It’s not always easy to say. There are plenty of voice overs but it’s rare that anyone directly states what they’re thinking or who they are. When the characters speak to each other, they mumble. The dialogue is a mix of the banal and the portentous, a sure sign of a film that was largely shot without a script. Eventually, you turn on the captioning so that you can at least understand what everyone’s muttering.
Michael Fassbender plays Cook. Cook appears to be a music producer but he could just as easily be a businessman who enjoys hanging out with and manipulating aspiring stars. People seem to know him but nobody seems to be particularly impressed by him. Cook spends a lot of time standing in front of a pool. Is it his pool? Is it his house? It’s hard to say. Cook is obsessed with control or maybe he isn’t. Halfway through the film, Fassbender appears to turn into his character from Shame.
Ryan Gosling is BV. BV appears to be a lyricist, though it’s never made clear what type of songs that he writes. At one point, you think someone said that he had written a country song but you may have misheard. BV appears to have an estranged relationship with his dying father. BV may be a romantic or he may not. He seems to fall in love easily but he spends just as much time staring at the sky soulfully and suggesting that he has a hard time with commitment. BV appears to be Cook’s best friend but sometimes, he isn’t. There’s a random scene where BV accuses Cook of cheating him. It’s never brought up again.
Rooney Mara is Faye. Faye contributes most of the voice overs and yet, oddly, you’re never sure who exactly she is. She appears to be BV’s girlfriend and sometimes, she appears to be Cook’s girlfriend. Sometimes, she’s in love and then, just as abruptly, she’s not. She may be a singer or she may be a songwriter. At one point, she appears to be interviewing Patty Smith so maybe she’s a music journalist. The film is centered around her but it never makes clear who she is.
Natalie Portman is Rhonda. Rhonda was a teacher but now she’s a waitress. She might be religious or she might not. She might be married to Cook or she might not. Her mother (Holly Hunter) might be dying or she might not.
And there are other beautful people as well. Cate Blanchett plays a character named Amanda. Amanda has a relationship with one of the characters and then vanishes after four scenes. There’s an intriguing sadness to Blanchett’s performance. Since the first cut of Song to Song was 8 hours long, you can assume her backstory was left on the cutting room floor. (And yet strangely, it works that we never know much about who Amanda is.) Lykke Li shows up, presumably playing herself but maybe not. Berenice Marlohe and Val Kilmer also have small roles, wandering in and out of the character’s lives.
There’s a lot of wandering in this movie. The characters wander through their life, stopping only to kiss each other, caress each other, and occasionally stare soulfully into the distance. The camera seems to wander from scene to scene, stopping to occasionally focus on random details. Even the film’s timeline seems to wander, as you find yourself looking at Rooney Mara’s forever changing hair and using it as a roadmap in your attempt to understand the film’s story.
“I went through a period when I thought sex had to be violent,” Rooney Mara’s voice over breathlessly explains, “We thought we could just roll and tumble, live from song to song, kiss to kiss.”
As you watch Song to Song, you find yourself both intrigued and annoyed. This is a Terrence Malick film, after all. You love movies so, of course, you love Malick. Even if his recent films have been flawed and self-indulgent, he is a true original. You want to support him because he’s an artist but, as you watch Song to Song, the emphasis really does seem to be on self-indulgence. The images are beautiful but the characters are so empty and the voice overs are so incredibly pretentious. Should you be mad or should you be thankful that, in this time of cinematic blandness, there’s a director still willing to follow his own vision?
At times, Song to Song is brilliant. There are images in Song to Song that are as beautiful as any that Malick has ever captured. Sometimes, both the images and the characters are almost too beautiful. The music business is tough and dirty but all of the images in Song to Song are clean and vibrant.
At times, Song to Song is incredibly annoying. It’s hard not to suspect that the film would have worked better if Natalie Portman and Rooney Mara had switched roles. Mara can be an outstanding actress with the right director (just check out her performance in Carol) but, in Song to Song, her natural blandness makes it difficult to take her seriously as whoever she’s supposed to be. Portman has much less screen time and yet creates an unforgettable character. Mara is in 75% of the film and yet never seems like an active participant.
At times, the film is annoyingly brilliant. Malick’s self-indulgence can drive you mad while still leaving you impressed by his commitment to his vision.
And then, other times, the film is brilliantly annoying. Many directors have mixed overly pretty images with pretentious voice overs but few do so with the panache of Terrence Malick.
Even fans of Terrence Malick, of which I certainly am one, will probably find Song to Song to be his weakest film. Even compared to films like To The Wonder and Knight of Cups, Song to Song is a slow movie and there are moments that come dangerously close to self-parody. Unlike Tree of Life, where everything eventually came together in enigmatic poignance, Song to Song often feels like less than the sum of its parts. And yet, I can’t totally dismiss anything made by Terrence Malick. Song to Song may be empty but it’s oh so pretty.
(Lisa recently discovered that she only has about 8 hours of space left on her DVR! It turns out that she’s been recording movies from July and she just hasn’t gotten around to watching and reviewing them yet. So, once again, Lisa is cleaning out her DVR! She is going to try to watch and review 52 movies by Wednesday, November 30th! Will she make it? Keep checking the site to find out!)
On October 14th, I recorded Zoolander 2 off of Epix.
A sequel to the 2001 cult hit, Zoolander 2 came out earlier this year and got absolutely terrible reviews and quickly vanished from theaters. Watching the film last night, I could understand why it got such terrible reviews. Zoolander 2 is not only a terrible movie but it’s also a rather bland one. Somehow, the blandness is even more offensive than the badness.
Zoolander 2 opens with Justin Bieber getting assassinated and Derek Zoolander (Ben Stiller) being forced to come out of retirement and discover why pop stars are being targeted. And, of course, Zoolander can’t do it without the help of Hansel (Owen Wilson)! Penelope Cruz is in the film as well, playing Zoolander’s handler and essentially being wasted in a role that could have been played by anyone.
Oh! And Will Ferrell returns as well. Ferrell gives a performance that essentially shouts out to the world, “Fuck you, I’m Will Ferrell and no one is going to tell Will Ferrell to tone his shit down!”
Actually, I think everyone in the world is in Zoolander 2. This is one of those films that is full of cameos from people who probably thought a silly comedy would be good for their image. For instance, there’s a huge number of journalists who show up playing themselves. Matt Lauer shows up and I get the feeling that we’re supposed to be happy about that. There was a reason why people cheered when the sharks ate him in Sharknado 3.
You know who else shows up as himself? Billy Zane! And Billy Zane has exactly the right type of attitude for a film like this. He shows up and he mocks the whole enterprise by giving the Billy Zaniest performance of Billy Zane’s career. For that matter, Kiefer Sutherland also shows up as himself. I’m not really sure what Kiefer was doing in the film but he makes sure to deliver all of his lines in that sexy growl of his. Kiefer knows what we want to hear.
You may notice that I’m not talking about the plot of Zoolander 2. That’s largely because I couldn’t follow the plot. This is an incredibly complicated film but it’s not complicated in a funny way. Instead, it’s complicated in a way that suggests that the film was made up on the spot. It’s as if the cast said, “We’re all funny! Just turn on the camera and we’ll make it work!”
The problem with Zoolander 2 is obvious. The first film pretty much exhausted the comic possibilities of making a spy film about shallow and stupid models. Don’t get me wrong — the first film did a good job but it’s not like it left any material untapped. But I would ask you to indulge me as I imagine an alternate reality.
Consider this: Terrence Malick was reportedly a huge fun of Zoolander.
Let’s take just a minute to imagine a world in which Ben Stiller asked Terrence Malick to write and direct Zoolander 2. And let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that Malick agreed!
Just think about it — 4 hours of Zoolander and Hansel staring up at the sky and thinking about nature. “What is this thing that causes the heart of man to beat?” Zoolander asks. “Are we nature or has nature become us?” Hansel replies.
If I wanted to play a really mean April Fools Day joke, I would announce that, after getting thoroughly booed at Cannes last year and suffering from some of the worst word-of-mouth in cinematic history, Gus Van Sant’s The Sea Of Trees has finally gotten an American release date.
But I’m not mean and I’m not going to play that joke on you.
Instead, I’m going to tell you that not only is Van Sant’s Sea of Trees never going to be released in the U.S. but that the script is also currently being reshot by Terrence Malick…
April Fools!
Bleh, what a stupid holiday.
Anyway, the truth of the matter is that Sea of Trees still does not have an American release date but it will be released in Europe later this month. Eventually, if nothing else, Sea of Trees will make it to Netflix and we’ll get to discover what everyone was booing about in Cannes.