It’s time for me to post my monthly Oscar predictions!
As always, the usual caveats apply. It’s way too early for me to try to make any predictions. Most of the films listed below haven’t even been released (or screened) yet and it’s totally possible that a big contender might come out of nowhere in the fall. That seems to happen almost every year.
So, take these predictions with a grain of salt. These are my guesses. Some of them are based on instinct. Some of them are just there because I think it would be a really, really neat if that movie or performer was nominated. However, I will say this: I do think that if a comic book movie is ever nominated for best picture, it will be Black Panther.
(I actually preferred Avengers: Infinity War to Black Panther — sorry, Ryan — but, much like Get Out, Black Panther has gone beyond being a movie. It’s become a cultural signpost, in a way that Infinity War never will.)
The Cannes Film Festival is going on right now and one potential Oscar contender — Spike Lee’s BlackkKlansman — is due to make its debut in the upcoming days. Right now, I don’t have BlackkKlansman listed in my predictions, mostly because the Academy hasn’t exactly embraced Lee in the past. But I will be interested to see how Cannes reacts to the film.
Right now, when it comes to predicting the Oscars, there are two big questions to consider.
First off, will Burden ever find a distributor? From the reviews in Sundance, it sounds like the type of film that could be embraced by the Academy but, if it can’t get in theaters, it’s not going to get any nominations.
Secondly, will Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman came out in 2019 or 2018? Right now, Netflix says that The Irishman will be released in 2019 but we all remember what happened with The Wolf of Wall Street.
As of now, I’m going to choose to believe that Burden will get a 2018 release date and that The Irishman will come out in 2019.
I’m also going to chose to believe that Black Panther will be the first “comic book” movie to be nominated for best picture.
Also be sure to check out my predictions for January and February!
For 9 decades, the Oscars have been an important part of American life. As I’ve said on this site many times, Oscar Sunday is as much of an unofficial holiday as Super Bowl Sunday. For many of us, the new year doesn’t even begin until the morning after the Oscars.
However, some of the most memorable Oscar winners didn’t even exist! The Academy Awards have been used as a plot device in any number of movies. Here are four of my favorite fictional Oscar winners:
Johnny Fontane (Al Martino) in The Godfather (1972)
Oh, Johnny Fontane. He had such a good singing career going until he started to lose his voice. But, fortunately, there was a part for him in an upcoming picture. As Johnny explained it, the part was a guy just like him. “I wouldn’t even have to act.” The only problem was that studio head Jack Woltz didn’t want to give him that role.
It’s a good thing that Johnny had a Godfather like Vito Corleone. And it’s a good thing that the Godfather had a lawyer like Tom Hagen, a lawyer who didn’t mind arranging for a horse to be beheaded. Khartoun may not have survived but Johnny Fontane got his part and his Oscar.
(Johnny’s adventures at the Oscars are detailed in all their loving glory in Mario Puzo’s novel. Perhaps not wanting to harm its own Oscar chances, the film left out the majority of Johnny’s Hollywood adventures.)
2. Margaret Elliott (Bette Davis) in The Star (1953)
“C’mon, Oscar! Let’s get drunk!”
Listen, you may think that winning an Oscar means that you’re set for life but often, the exact opposite is true. Winning an Oscar has killed many a career. They even have a name for it: The Oscar Curse.
Take Margaret Elliott for instance. She won an Oscar. And now, just a few years later, she’s broke, drunk, and deeply in denial. Can her daughter (Natalie Wood) convince Margaret that it’s time to stop drinking and admit that fame is a hideous bitch goddess? Or will Margaret continue to get drunk with her Oscar staring at her in judgment?
3. Vicki Lester (Judy Garland) in A Star is Born (1954)
Sadly, Vicki is better remembered for what happened during her acceptance speech than for the speech itself. When her husband, notorious alcoholic Norman Maine (James Mason), took the stage and struck his wife while drunkenly motioning, it shocked Oscar watchers everywhere. But Vicki never stopped loving him and, after his tragic death, she let the world know that, “This is Mrs. Norman Maine.”
4. Jerilee Randall (Pia Zadora) in The Lonely Lady (1983)
“I don’t suppose I’m the only one whose had to fuck her way to the top.”
Could Black Panther be the first comic book movie to receive an Oscar nomination?
Last year, around this time, we were asking the exact same question about Logan. Logan didn’t pick up a Best Picture nomination but it was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, which would seem to suggest that the Academy is slowly coming around to accepting that so-called “Super Hero Films” can also be legitimate Oscar contenders.
As for Black Panther, it is currently the most critically acclaimed and financially successful film of 2018. For those who say that there’s no way the Academy will ever nominate a comic book film for best picture, it should be remembered that there was a time when people said that Academy would never nominate a horror comedy for Best Picture. Much like Get Out, Black Panther could prove the naysayers wrong.
Anyway, here are my Oscar predictions for February. As always, it ‘s really way too early to be making these predictions. Usually, Sundance provides at least a little bit of a guide but this year, Sundance was pretty low-key. The most obvious Sundance Oscar contender — Burden — doesn’t even have a release date yet.
Also, the uncertain status of The Weinstein Company has thrown a lot of films into limbo. Some of the unreleased TWC films might find homes with other studios. Others will probably be left in limbo. Then again, even if those films do get a release, I doubt the Academy is going to nominate any films stained with the noxious fingerprints of the Weinsteins.
Even more than usual, the guesses below are random. At this time next year, we’ll probably look at this list and laugh. Some of you might laugh today.
Well, it depends on how you look at it. You can predict the Oscars at any time during the year. However, predicting them correctly is next to impossible before October. That said, I’m going to give it a shot!
Now, to be clear, this is not an attempt to predict who and what will be nominated later this month. Instead, these are my predictions for what will be nominated next year at this time! I’ll be updating my predictions every month of this year.
So, with all that in mind, here are my way too early predictions for what will be nominated in January of 2019! As of right now, these predictions are a collection of instinct and random guesses. For all we know, some of these films might not even get released in 2018. In all probability, we’ll look back at this list in December and laugh.
Best Picture
Chappaquiddick
First Man
Lizzie
Mary Queen of Scots
The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Mortal Engines
A Star is Born
Widows
Wildfire
The Women of Marwen
Best Director
Desiree Akhavon for The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Damien Chazelle for First Man
Paul Dano for Wildfire
Steve McQueen for Widows
Robert Zemeckis for The Women of Marwen
Best Actor
Steve Carell in The Women of Marwen
Jason Clarke in Chappaquiddick
Ryan Gosling in First Man
Jake Gyllenhaal in Wildfire
Joaquin Phoenx in Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot
Best Actress
Viola Davis in Widows
Chloe Grace Moretz in The Miseducation of Cameron Post
What’s an Insomnia File? You know how some times you just can’t get any sleep and, at about three in the morning, you’ll find yourself watching whatever you can find on cable? This feature is all about those insomnia-inspired discoveries!
If you found yourself awake and unable to sleep at 2:30 this morning, you could have always turned over to TCM and watched the 1976 film, A Star is Born.
A Star is Born gets off to a good start by having Gary Busey give Kris Kristofferson a hit of cocaine. As I pointed out on twitter, no movie that starts with Gary Busey offering cocaine to Kris Kristofferson can be all bad.
Anyway, Kris is playing John Norman Howard. John Norman Howard is a big 70s rock star, which means that he has a beard and a bad case of ennui. Despite all of the cocaine and whiskey, his career is on a downward spiral. Part of the problem appears to be that he only sings one song and, half the time, he still can’t bring himself to remember all of the lyrics. The song opens with John growling, “Are you a figment of my imagination or am I one of yours?” and John always ends up storming off stage before we can hear the rest of it.
Anyway, John ends up at this club in Hollywood that looks a lot like the place that Ryan Gosling opened up at the end of La La Land. While at the club, John gets into a fight with Robert Englund (who I assume was playing a young Freddy Krueger) and totally interrupts the performance of the Oreos.
Who are the Oreos? They’re a folk-singin’ power trio. There’s One (Venetta Fields) and Two (Clydie King). (According to the credits, that’s actually their names.) And then there’s Esther Hoffman, who has a truly horrid perm and who is played by Barbra Streisand. One and Two are black. Esther, who stands right in the middle whenever they perform, is white. And they’re called The Oreos!
Uhmmm, yeah…
Anyway, we really don’t learn anything about One or Two, beyond the fact that they are totally and completely devoted to Esther. When Esther gets them fired from recording a cat food jingle, they just smile and laugh. Sure, why not!? After all, it’s not like struggling musicians need money or anything. When Esther interrupts a performance to yell at John, One and Two smile and laugh. When Esther, under John’s tutelage, becomes a big star and basically abandons the Oreos, One and Two show up at a recording session and smile and laugh.
Last night was my first time to actually see A Star is Born, though I had heard and read quite a bit about it. Of all the versions of A Star is Born, this one made the most money at the box office but it also got the worst reviews. Reportedly, the film’s production was a trainwreck with Barbra Streisand and then-boyfriend Jon Peters fighting with … well, everyone.
And yet, like so many cinematic trainwrecks, you simply cannot look away from it. This version of A Star is Born gets so many things wrong that it becomes rather fascinating to watch. Perhaps the scene that epitomizes A Star is Born comes when John refuses to perform his one song at a benefit concert and instead, brings out Esther and has her perform her songs. First off, John’s hard rock band suddenly transforms into a Broadway orchestra and John’s audience — who presumably had paid money to hear that growling song about imagination — is overjoyed to instead have to listen to Esther’s style of lite pop/rock. (Actually, to even call it rock is to needlessly stretch the definition of rock to its breaking point.) Making the scene even more bizarre is that 1) John is basically exploiting a benefit concert to launch Esther’s career and 2) since the concert was being performed to support the American Indian Movement, the disembodied head of a Native American woman keeps appearing over Esther’s shoulder while she’s performing songs that have absolutely nothing to do with the cause that the concert is supposedly supporting. It’s kind of the cinematic equivalent of that Kendall Jenner Pepsi commercial.
Anyway, things get even better when John buys an empty field and, in a ten minute montage, John and Esther literally build a house. Seriously, I’m not kidding. At no point do we see anyone other than John and Esther working on that house and yet, within a matter of minutes, they have an adobe mansion to live in. I had no idea it was so easy to build a house. It makes me wonder why people waste money buying houses when they can just buy an empty field and build their own.
(Maybe they’re scared of the poltergeists. Imagine how different this version of A Star Is Born would have been if it ended with Esther grabbing John and screaming, “YOU MOVED THE HEADSTONES BUT YOU LEFT THE BODIES, DIDN’T YOU!? YOU LEFT THE BODIES!”)
Kris Kristofferson is well-cast as John Norman Howard but the film is pretty much centered around Barbra. That, in itself, wouldn’t be a problem if not for the fact that Barbra is completely miscast. She’s a great singer but she’s not a rock singer. You never believe that the same people who want to hear John sing his one song would also want to hear any of Esther’s songs. The fact that the film is basically 140 minutes of everyone insisting that Esther is the future of music only reminds us of the fact that she’s not. Her style is throwback to the past, which is one reason why everyone’s grandmother loves Barbra Streisand.
This wouldn’t be such a big deal if Barbra and Kris actually had any chemistry but they really don’t. There’s a scene where Barbra and Kris take a bath together and Barbra puts makeup on Kris’s face. Between two people who have chemistry, that would be sexy and sweet. Between Kris and Barbra, it’s just kind of icky and you find yourself wondering who took the time to light the hundreds of candles surrounding them. Whenever Barbra and Kris kissed, I worried for her just because all I could think of was the stubble burn that Esther would have to deal with later.
Yet, in the end, the film makes so many mistakes that it becomes one of the most watchable movies ever made. It may not be good but it sure is entertaining.
— Mrs. Norman Maine (Janet Gaynor) in A Star Is Born (1937)
When I first saw the red neon of the opening credits of the 1937 best picture nominee, A Star Is Born, I thought to myself, “This is a real movie movie.” And I was so impressed by that thought that I even jotted it down in my review notes and now, looking down at my notes, I’m struggling to figure out how to explain just what exactly it was that I meant.
I think that what I was trying to say, in my own way, was that, when we think of a typical big budget Hollywood romance, A Star Is Born is the type of film of which we tend to think. It’s a big, glossy film that is shot in vibrant technicolor and which features a self-sacrificing woman (Esther Blodgett, played by Janet Gaynor) falling in love with a self-destructive but ultimately noble man (Norman Maine, played by Fredric March). It’s a film that has romance, humor, and tragedy. It’s a film that’s designed to make you laugh, cry, and ultimately fall in love. It’s pure melodrama, the type of film that would probably be made for Lifetime today. (And, in fact, it has been remade for Lifetime a number of times, just never under the title A Star Is Born.)
It’s a familiar story that, if I may indulge in a cliché, as old as the movies. Esther is a girl who lives on a farm in North Dakota and she wants to be a star, despite being told by her aunt that she need to start concentrating on finding a man and having children. Esther’s grandmother (Fay Robson) tells Eleanor to pursue her dreams and loans her some money to take with her to Hollywood.
With stars in her eyes, Esther goes out to California and deals with rejection after rejection. (She does, however, manage to rent out an apartment. The weekly rent is $6.00.) Esther does befriend an assistant director (Andy Devine) who gets Esther a job as a waitress at a party. As Esther serves the food, she imitates everyone from Katharine Hepburn to Mae West, all in an attempt to get noticed.
And, amazingly enough, it works! She meets film star, Norman Maine. With Norman’s help, she gets her first screen test and, after her name is changed to Vicki Lester, Esther is put under contract to a studio. She and Norman also fall in love and soon end up married. However, while Vicki Lester is rising to stardom, Norman is descending into irrelevance. He’s an alcoholic who has managed to alienate almost everyone in Hollywood. When Vicki wins her first award, Norman shows up at the ceremony drunk and destroys what little is left of his career.
Will Vicki be able to save Norman from his demons? And will she be able to do so without destroying her own career?
Well, you probably already know the answer. A Star Is Born is one of those stories that everyone seems to know, regardless of whether they’ve actually seen the film or not. (And even if they haven’t seen the 1937 version, chances are that they’ve seen one of the many remakes or ripoffs.) The original Star Is Born is an undeniably familiar and old-fashioned movie but it holds up as a celebration of both old Hollywood glamour and a heartfelt romance.
Through the Shattered Lens 