It’s time for me to post my monthly Oscar predictions!
As always, the usual caveats apply. It’s way too early for me to try to make any predictions. Most of the films listed below haven’t even been released (or screened) yet and it’s totally possible that a big contender might come out of nowhere in the fall. That seems to happen almost every year.
So, take these predictions with a grain of salt. These are my guesses. Some of them are based on instinct. Some of them are just there because I think it would be a really, really neat if that movie or performer was nominated. However, I will say this: I do think that if a comic book movie is ever nominated for best picture, it will be Black Panther.
(I actually preferred Avengers: Infinity War to Black Panther — sorry, Ryan — but, much like Get Out, Black Panther has gone beyond being a movie. It’s become a cultural signpost, in a way that Infinity War never will.)
The Cannes Film Festival is going on right now and one potential Oscar contender — Spike Lee’s BlackkKlansman — is due to make its debut in the upcoming days. Right now, I don’t have BlackkKlansman listed in my predictions, mostly because the Academy hasn’t exactly embraced Lee in the past. But I will be interested to see how Cannes reacts to the film.
At Eternity’s Gate
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary, Queen of Scots
The Other Side of the Wind
A Quiet Place
Damien Chazelle for First Man
Ryan Coogler for Black Panther
Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk
Steve McQueen for Widows
Josie Rourke for Mary, Queen of Scots
Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy
Willem DaFoe in At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling in First Man
Lucas Hedges in Boy Erased
Robert Redford in Old Man and the Gun
Viola Davis in Widows
Felicity Jones in On The Basis of Sex
Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Saoirse Ronan in Mary. Queen of Scots
Kristen Stewart in JT LeRoy
Best Supporting Actor
Russell Crowe in Boy Erased
Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born
Oscar Isaac in At Eternity’s Gate
Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther
Forest Whitaker in Burden
Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy in First Man
Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased
Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robie in Mary, Queen of Scots
Sissy Spacek in Old Man And The Gun