Lisa Marie’s Oscar Nomination Predictions


The Oscar nominations are due to be announced in a few more hours.  I’m still struggling to get caught up with all of the movies that I need to see before I can post my personal Oscar nominations (expect to see them and all of my “best of 2023 lists” at the end of this month) but I have been following the precursor season and I feel confident about predicting what will be nominated in the major categories.

We’ll find out how correct I am in just a few more hours!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Greta Gerwig for Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdover

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee in Past Lives

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling in Barbie

Dominic Sessa in The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz in Ferrari

Jodie Foster in Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Here Are The 2023 Gotham Award Winners!


In one of the first events of Awards Season, The Gotham Awards were handed out tonight, with Past Lives picking up the award for best film.  Below, all of the winners are listed in bold!

Best Feature
Passages
Ira Sachs, director; Saïd Ben Saïd, Michel Merkt, producers (MUBI)

Past Lives
Celine Song, director; David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon, producers (A24)

Reality
Tina Satter, director; Brad Becker-Parton, Riva Marker, Greg Nobile, Noah Stahl, producers (HBO Films)

Showing Up
Kelly Reichardt, director; Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani, producers (A24)

A Thousand and One
A.V. Rockwell, director; Julia Lebedev, Rishi Rajani, Eddie Vaisman, Lena Waithe, Bred Weston, producers (Focus Features)

Best International Feature
All of Us Strangers
Andrew Haigh, director; Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Anatomy of a Fall
Justine Triet, director; Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion, producers (NEON)

Poor Things
Yorgos Lanthimos, director; Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Tótem
Lila Avilés, director; Lila Avilés, Tatiana Graullera, Louise Riousse, producers (Sideshow/Janus Films)

The Zone of Interest
Jonathan Glazer, director; Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson, producers (A24)

Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Mstyslav Chernov, director; Raney Aronson-Rath, Mstyslav Chernov, Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner, producers (PBS Distribution)

Against the Tide
Sarvnik Kaur, director; Koval Bhatia, Sarvnik Kaur, producers (Snooker Club Films, A Little Anarky Films)

Apolonia, Apolonia
Lea Glob, director; Sidsel Lønvig Siersted, producer (Danish Documentary Production)

Four Daughters
Kaouther Ben Hania, director; Nadim Cheikhrouha, producer (Kino Lorber)

Our Body
Claire Simon, director; Kristina Larsen, producer (Cinema Guild)

Breakthrough Director Award, Presented by Cadillac

Raven Jackson, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (A24)

Georgia Oakley, Blue Jean (Magnolia Pictures)

Michelle Garza Cervera, Huesera (XYZ Films)

Celine Song, Past Lives (A24)

A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Best Screenplay

All of Us Strangers, Andrew Haigh (Searchlight Pictures)

Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet, Arthur Harari (NEON)

May December, Samy Burch (Netflix)

R.M.N., Cristian Mungiu (IFC Films)

The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer (A24)

Outstanding Lead Performance

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (NEON)

Lily Gladstone, The Unknown Country (Music Box Films)

Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24)

Franz Rogowski, Passages (MUBI)

Babetida Sadjo, Our Father, The Devil (Cineverse)

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (A24)

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Michelle Williams, Showing Up (A24)

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (Orion Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (IFC Films)

Penélope Cruz, Ferrari (NEON)

Jamie Foxx, They Cloned Tyrone (Netflix)

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Films)

Ryan Gosling, Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (IFC Films)

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (A24)

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)

Charles Melton, May December (Netflix)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Breakthrough Series – Under 40 minutes
Beef, Lee Sung Jin, creator; Ravi Nandan, Alli Reich, Jake Schreier, Ali Wong, Steven Yeun, executive producers (Netflix)

High School, Clea DuVall, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, creators; Clea Duvall, Dede Gardner, Laura Kittrell, Jeremy Kleiner, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, Carina Sposato, executive producers (Amazon Freevee)

I’m A Virgo, Boots Riley, creator; Tze Chun, Michael Ellenberg, Marcus Gardley, Carver Karaszewski, Jharrel Jerome, Boots Riley, Rebecca Rivo, Lindsey Springer, executive producers (Prime Video)

Rain Dogs, Cash Carraway, creator; Cash Carraway, Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Swarm, Donald Glover, Janine Nabers, creators; Ibra Ake, Donald Glover, Stephen Glover, Janine Nabers Jamal Olor, Steven Prinz, Michael Schaefer, Fam Udeorji, executive producers (Amazon Studios)

Breakthrough Series – Over 40 minutes
Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire
Rolin Jones, creator; Mark Johnson, Rolin Jones, Anne Rice, Christopher Rice, Alan Taylor, executive producers (AMC)

Dead Ringers
Alice Birch, creator; Alice Birch, Anne Carey, Sean Durkin, Megan Ellison, Erica Kay, Ali Krug, Sue Naegle, Stacy O’Neil, David Robinson, James G. Robinson, Polly Stokes, Barbara Wall, Rachel Weisz, executive directors (Prime Video)

The English
Hugo Blick, creator; Hugo Blick, Emily Blunt, Greg Brenman, executive producers (Prime Video)

The Last of Us
Craig Mazin, Neil Druckmann, creators; Neil Druckmann, Craig Mazin, Rose Lam, Asad Qizilbash, Carolyn Strauss, Carter Swan, Evan Wells, executive producers; (HBO | Max)

A Small Light
Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, creator; Susanna Fogel, William Harper, Avi Nir, Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, Lisa Roos, Alon Shtruzman, Peter Traugott, executive producers (National Geographic)

Telemarketers
Adam Bhala Lough, Sam Lipman-Stern, directors; Nancy Abraham, Dani Bernfeld, David Gordon Green, Lisa Heller, Jody Hill, Brandon James, Sam Lipman-Stern, Adam Bhala Lough, Danny McBride, Tina Nguyen, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Greg Stewart, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Outstanding Performance in a New Series
Jacob Anderson, Anne Rice’s Interview with The Vampire (AMC)

Dominique Fishback, Swarm (Amazon Studios)

Jharrel Jerome, I’m A Virgo (Prime Video)

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face (Peacock)

Bel Powley, A Small Light (National Geographic)

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO | Max)

Chaske Spencer, The English (Prime Video)

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers ((Prime Video)

Ali Wong, Beef (Netflix)

Steven Yeun, Beef (Netflix)

Here Are The 2023 Gotham Nominations (Only A Week Late!)


Wow!  I’ve been so busy coordinating this year’s Horrorthon that I totally missed the fact that the Gotham nominations were announced on October 24th!  In the past, the Gothams only honored films that were made for a certain low budget.  This year is the first time that they’ll be honoring films of any budget.  To me, that would seem to defeat the purpose of the awards but whatever.  Everyone wants to be an Oscar precursor nowadays.

Anyway, this is really late on my part but here are this year’s Gotham nominations!  Whether or not these nominations will give a boost to any of these film’s Oscar chances remains to be seen.  The winners will be announced on November 27th!

Best Feature
Passages
Ira Sachs, director; Saïd Ben Saïd, Michel Merkt, producers (MUBI)

Past Lives
Celine Song, director; David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon, producers (A24)

Reality
Tina Satter, director; Brad Becker-Parton, Riva Marker, Greg Nobile, Noah Stahl, producers (HBO Films)

Showing Up
Kelly Reichardt, director; Neil Kopp, Vincent Savino, Anish Savjani, producers (A24)

A Thousand and One
A.V. Rockwell, director; Julia Lebedev, Rishi Rajani, Eddie Vaisman, Lena Waithe, Bred Weston, producers (Focus Features)

Best International Feature
All of Us Strangers
Andrew Haigh, director; Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Anatomy of a Fall
Justine Triet, director; Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion, producers (NEON)

Poor Things
Yorgos Lanthimos, director; Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Tótem
Lila Avilés, director; Lila Avilés, Tatiana Graullera, Louise Riousse, producers (Sideshow/Janus Films)

The Zone of Interest
Jonathan Glazer, director; Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson, producers (A24)

Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Mstyslav Chernov, director; Raney Aronson-Rath, Mstyslav Chernov, Derl McCrudden, Michelle Mizner, producers (PBS Distribution)

Against the Tide
Sarvnik Kaur, director; Koval Bhatia, Sarvnik Kaur, producers (Snooker Club Films, A Little Anarky Films)

Apolonia, Apolonia
Lea Glob, director; Sidsel Lønvig Siersted, producer (Danish Documentary Production)

Four Daughters
Kaouther Ben Hania, director; Nadim Cheikhrouha, producer (Kino Lorber)

Our Body
Claire Simon, director; Kristina Larsen, producer (Cinema Guild)

Breakthrough Director Award, Presented by Cadillac

Raven Jackson, All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (A24)

Georgia Oakley, Blue Jean (Magnolia Pictures)

Michelle Garza Cervera, Huesera (XYZ Films)

Celine Song, Past Lives (A24)

A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Best Screenplay

All of Us Strangers, Andrew Haigh (Searchlight Pictures)

Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet, Arthur Harari (NEON)

May December, Samy Burch (Netflix)

R.M.N., Cristian Mungiu (IFC Films)

The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer (A24)

Outstanding Lead Performance

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (NEON)

Lily Gladstone, The Unknown Country (Music Box Films)

Greta Lee, Past Lives (A24)

Franz Rogowski, Passages (MUBI)

Babetida Sadjo, Our Father, The Devil (Cineverse)

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (A24)

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Michelle Williams, Showing Up (A24)

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (Orion Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (IFC Films)

Penélope Cruz, Ferrari (NEON)

Jamie Foxx, They Cloned Tyrone (Netflix)

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Films)

Ryan Gosling, Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (IFC Films)

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (A24)

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)

Charles Melton, May December (Netflix)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (Focus Features)

Breakthrough Series – Under 40 minutes
Beef, Lee Sung Jin, creator; Ravi Nandan, Alli Reich, Jake Schreier, Ali Wong, Steven Yeun, executive producers (Netflix)

High School, Clea DuVall, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, creators; Clea Duvall, Dede Gardner, Laura Kittrell, Jeremy Kleiner, Sara Quin, Tegan Quin, Carina Sposato, executive producers (Amazon Freevee)

I’m A Virgo, Boots Riley, creator; Tze Chun, Michael Ellenberg, Marcus Gardley, Carver Karaszewski, Jharrel Jerome, Boots Riley, Rebecca Rivo, Lindsey Springer, executive producers (Prime Video)

Rain Dogs, Cash Carraway, creator; Cash Carraway, Sally Woodward Gentle, Lee Morris, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Swarm, Donald Glover, Janine Nabers, creators; Ibra Ake, Donald Glover, Stephen Glover, Janine Nabers Jamal Olor, Steven Prinz, Michael Schaefer, Fam Udeorji, executive producers (Amazon Studios)

Breakthrough Series – Over 40 minutes
Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire
Rolin Jones, creator; Mark Johnson, Rolin Jones, Anne Rice, Christopher Rice, Alan Taylor, executive producers (AMC)

Dead Ringers
Alice Birch, creator; Alice Birch, Anne Carey, Sean Durkin, Megan Ellison, Erica Kay, Ali Krug, Sue Naegle, Stacy O’Neil, David Robinson, James G. Robinson, Polly Stokes, Barbara Wall, Rachel Weisz, executive directors (Prime Video)

The English
Hugo Blick, creator; Hugo Blick, Emily Blunt, Greg Brenman, executive producers (Prime Video)

The Last of Us
Craig Mazin, Neil Druckmann, creators; Neil Druckmann, Craig Mazin, Rose Lam, Asad Qizilbash, Carolyn Strauss, Carter Swan, Evan Wells, executive producers; (HBO | Max)

A Small Light
Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, creator; Susanna Fogel, William Harper, Avi Nir, Tony Phelan, Joan Rater, Lisa Roos, Alon Shtruzman, Peter Traugott, executive producers (National Geographic)

Telemarketers
Adam Bhala Lough, Sam Lipman-Stern, directors; Nancy Abraham, Dani Bernfeld, David Gordon Green, Lisa Heller, Jody Hill, Brandon James, Sam Lipman-Stern, Adam Bhala Lough, Danny McBride, Tina Nguyen, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Greg Stewart, executive producers (HBO | Max)

Outstanding Performance in a New Series
Jacob Anderson, Anne Rice’s Interview with The Vampire (AMC)

Dominique Fishback, Swarm (Amazon Studios)

Jharrel Jerome, I’m A Virgo (Prime Video)

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face (Peacock)

Bel Powley, A Small Light (National Geographic)

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO | Max)

Chaske Spencer, The English (Prime Video)

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers ((Prime Video)

Ali Wong, Beef (Netflix)

Steven Yeun, Beef (Netflix)

Here’s the teaser for Michael Mann’s Ferrari!


Everyone’s popping up with movies! First Scorsese, then Fincher, and now Mann. It looks like Michael Mann (Heat, Collateral) is back with Ferrari! Adam Driver stars as Enzo Ferrari, who would turn his love of cars into something legendary. While I’m hoping to see a ’61 GT California somewhere in the mix, this looks interesting. Ferrari also stars Penelope Cruz, Hugh Jackman, Shailene Woodley, Patrick Dempsey and Sarah Gadon. The film is written by Troy Kennedy Martin (Kelly’s Heroes) with the screenplay also by Mann.

Ferrari is due in theatres this Christmas.

My Oscar Predictions


Well, since the big show is tomorrow, I guess it’s time for me to try to predict what I think will win. Up until four weeks ago, I would thought Power of the Dog would be the obvious front runner but CODA seems to be the film that people are responding too. The same is true of Penelope Cruz, who went from being an also-ran to the new front runner in just a matter of days.

In short, this Oscar race is up in the air. Almost anything could happen. It should be exciting, though I think most people will be tuning in not to see who wins but to see how bad the show is.

Anyway, here are my predictions! We’ll see how right I am (or how wrong I am) tomorrow night!

Best Picture — CODA

Best Director — Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Best Actor — Will Smith, King Richard

Best Actress — Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Best Supporting Actor — Troy Kostur, CODA

Best Supporting Actress — Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay — The Worst Person In The World

Best Adapted Screenplay — CODA

Best Animated Feature Film — Encanto

Best International Film — Drive My Car

Best Documentary Feature — Attica

Best Documentary Short Subject — Audible

Best Live Action Short Film — The Long Goodbye

Best Animated Short Film — Affairs of the Art

Best Original Score — Dune

Best Original Song — Dos Origuitas from Encanto

Best Sound — West Side Story

Best Production Design — Dune

Best Cinematography — The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design — Nightmare Alley

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Film Editing — Don’t Look Up

Best Visual Effects — Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for October


It’s time to take a little break from horror so that I may once against do my list of my monthly Oscar predictions!  I guess some people would consider predicting the Oscars to be a scary thing.  Personally, I have fun doing it, even if my predictions often seem to be for naught.  That said, I did manage to predict that Thomas Vinterberg would be nominated for Best Director last year so take that, haters.

Probably the biggest development this month is that I’ve lost all faith in Spielberg’s West Side Story.  It’s just not getting the type of hype that I would expect from a Spielberg Oscar movie.  In fact, it seems like everyone involved is in kind of a hurry to move on.  So, for now, I’m dropping it from my predictions.  While West Side Story goes, Dune has definitely established itself as a probable nominee.  I think the only problem that Dune will have is the possibility of people saying, “We’ll just nominate the sequel instead.”

I’ve also added C’mon C’mon and Passing to my list of Best Picture nominees.  This is almost totally due to their popularity with the Gothams.  If the other critics groups don’t duplicate the love, they’ll probably get dropped from my predictions come January.

As always, keep in mind that I don’t claim to be an expert.  The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that.  These are just my guesses, for better or worse.  To see how my thinking has evolved,  check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September!

Best Picture

Belfast

C’mon C’mon

CODA

Dune

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

Passing

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of MacBeth

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter

Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley

Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage in Cyrano

Jude Hill in Belfast

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz in Parallel Lives

Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley

Jamie Dornan in Belfast

Ciaran Hinds in Belfast

Jason Isaacs in Mass

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

Dame Judi Dench in Belfast

Ann Dowd in Mass

Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

Marlee Matlin in CODA

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for September


Well, it’s the time of the month again.

No, not that time!  That time ended two days ago.  I’m talking about the fact that it’s time for me to once again share my monthly Oscar predictions.  Thanks to the festival circuit, we’ve finally gotten some advance word on the big Oscar contenders that will be coming out over the next few months.

Belfast, as of right now, sounds like the prohibitive favorite to win it all.  At first, it seemed like the reaction to The Power of the Dog was a bit mixed but later reactions were almost overwhelmingly positive.  It sounds like the type of film that will be nominated even if it won’t necessarily win.  Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter is coming on strong, as is Spencer.  For me, the biggest surprise has been the amount of acclaim that Dune has been getting.  I was a bit dismissive of its Oscar chances earlier this year but now it definitely sounds like it will be in the hunt.

West Side Story has been seen by no one but I continue to list it because it’s a Spielberg film and, with all the musicals that are being released this year and which have subsequently struggled with either critics or audiences or both, it still seems the most likely to pick up a nomination.  I’m a little bit skeptical on whether or not Nightmare Alley is going to be an “Oscar picture” but the trailer was nice to look at so I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt.  House of Gucci is three hours long and full of stars so it’s either going to be an Oscar nominee or a complete bomb.

You may notice a lack of predicted nominations for Licorice Pizza. Licorice Pizza is a film that I fully expect to love but the trailer definitely feels a bit more like Inherent Vice than The Phantom Thread.  I still think that the actors could get nominated but the rumor right now is that Bradley Cooper’s role is actually very small.  That’s why I no longer have him listed as a supporting actor nominee.

Again, keep in mind that I’m not an expert.  The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that.  These are just my guesses, for better or worse.  To see how my thinking has evolved,  check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August!

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Dune

House of Gucci

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of MacBeth

West Side Story

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor

Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Peter Dinklage in Cyrano

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz in Parallel Lives

Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Best Supporting Actor

David Alvarez in West Side Story

Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley

Ciaran Hinds in Belfast

Jason Isaac in Mass

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter

Dame Judi Dench in Belfast

Ann Dowd in Mass

Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

Marlee Matlin in CODA

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for August


It’s time for me to do my monthly Oscar predictions.  Again, as I’ve said in the past, the majority of these predictions are based on a combination of instinct and wishful thinking.  However, the picture may become a bit clearer as early as the end of this week.  With the Venice and Telluride film festivals right around the corner and Toronto also swift approaching, critics are finally going to get a chance to see some of the contenders and, as the early reviews come in, it should be easier to pick the probable nominees from the also-rans.

Personally, I will curious to see how people react to Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog.  Among the other possibilities that we’ll be hearing about: Spencer, King Richard, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Last Duel, and Belfast.

If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July!

Best Picture

Belfast

Blue Bayou

CODA

House of Gucci

A Journal For Jordan

Mass

The Power of the Dog

Soggy Bottom

The Tragedy of MacBeth

West Side Story

 

Best Director

Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen for The Tragedy of MacBeth

Ridley Scott for House of Gucci

Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan

 

Best Actor

Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Udo Kier in Swan Song

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Lady Gaga in House of Gucci

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

 

Best Supporting Actor

David Alvarez in West Side Story

Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom

Andrew Garfield in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jason Isaacs in Mass

Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

 

Best Supporting Actress

Ann Dowd in Mass

Kirsten Dunst in Power of the Dog

Marlee Matlin in CODA

Ruth Negga in Passing

Alicia Vikander in Blue Bayou

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For July


It’s that time of the month again!  It’s time for me to make my early Oscar predictions.

This year, the Cannes Film Festival really didn’t clear much up.  The French Dispatch was acclaimed but, in every review, there was an admission that, for everyone who absolutely loved it, there would probably be someone else who would absolutely hate it.  I did decided to include Red Rocket on my list of predictions, based on the Cannes reaction.  I’m still not a 100% convinced that it’s going to be a contender, of course.  But the idea of a Simon Rex movie being nominated for best picture was just too wonderfully strange for me to ignore.  That’s the same logic that led to me including Pig as a best picture nominee, by the way.

On the Ridely Scott front, the overacting in the trailer for House of Gucci really turned me off so I dropped it from all of my predictions.  The Last Duel looks like it might have a chance, however.

Anyway, the main thing to remember when looking at these predictions is that the majority of them are just random guesses, based on hunches and past Academy behavior.  So, as always, take them with several grains of salt.

If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June!

Best Picture

Belfast

A Journal For Jordan

The Last Duel

Nightmare Alley

Pig

The Power of the Dog

Red Rocket

Soggy Bottom

The Tragedy of MacBeth

West Side Story

 

Best Director

Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers

Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Guillermo Del Toro for Nightmare Alley

Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan

Best Actor

Nicolas Cage in Pig

Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey

Michael B. Jordan in A Journal For Jordan

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Nicole Kidman in Being The Ricardos

Tessa Thomspon in Passing

Best Supporting Actor

David Alvarez in West Side Story

Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom

Adam Driver in The Last Duel

Simon Helberg in Annette

Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Chante Adams in A Journal For Jordan

Ariana DeBose in West Side Story

Ann Dowd in Mass

Marlee Matlin in CODA

Ruth Negga in Passing

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions for June


2013 oscars

It’s the end of the month and that means that it’s time for me to post my monthly predictions!

What has chanced since I last made my predictions in May?  Though it was acclaimed by critics, the box office failure of In The Heights has probably ended that film’s time as an Oscar contender.  For all the musicals that are coming out this year, only Spielberg’s West Side Story really seems like a good bet to emerge as a major contender.  Dear Evan Hansen was pretty much eliminated from consideration as soon as its trailer dropped.  Tick, Tick …. Boom seems to be destined to be loved by theater kids while being dismissed by everyone else.  I’d love to see Joe Wright and Peter Dinklage nominated but my instincts are telling me that Cyrano will probably not be a huge contender.  In the end, West Side Story seems like the most likely musical nominee.

I’ve been reading up on Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which is set to premiere at Venice and then be released via Netflix.  Based on a novel by Thomas Savage, this sounds like the type of film that could potentially be a strong contender, depending on what approach Campion takes the story.  The main character of Phil Burbank is the type of bigger-than-life role that could lead to Oscar glory.  (The closest recent equivalent to Phil would probably be Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood.)  Phil is a sharply intelligent but cruelly manipulative Montana rancher, the type who brags about castrating cattle while quoting Ovid and who goes out of his way to bully anyone who he considers to be effeminate.  Of course, there’s a secret behind all of Phil’s cruelty and how the film handles that secret will have a lot to do with how strongly the film comes on during awards season.  Phil is being played by Benedict Cumberbatch, which is …. interesting casting.  (Personally, I probably would have begged Michael Fassbender to take the role.)  Still, it seems like Phil could be the type of change-of-pace role that, should Cumberbatch’s casting pay off, could lead to Oscar glory.

Coming up in July, we’ve got Cannes and we’ll be getting our first look at contenders like Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch.  Though Cannes is hardly a reliable precursor, the Oscar race should start to become a bit clearer as the festival start up and the contenders — many of which we’ve been waiting to see for over two years — will finally start to be released.  Until then, take all predictions with a grain of salt!

If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May.

Best Picture

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

A Journal for Jordan

Nightmare Alley

Parallel Mothers

Passing

The Power of the Dog

Soggy Bottom

The Tragedy of MacBeth

West Side Story

Best Director

Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers

Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Ridley Scott for House of Gucci

Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan

Best Actor

Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Michael B. Jordan in A Journal for Jordan

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos

Tessa Thompson in Passing

Best Supporting Actor

Adam Driver in The Last Duel

Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom

Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley

Bill Murray in The French Dispatch

Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

Vera Farmiga in The Many Saints of Newark

Marlee Matlin in CODA

Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth

Ruth Negga in Passing