It’s that time of the month again! It’s time for me to make my early Oscar predictions.
This year, the Cannes Film Festival really didn’t clear much up. The French Dispatch was acclaimed but, in every review, there was an admission that, for everyone who absolutely loved it, there would probably be someone else who would absolutely hate it. I did decided to include Red Rocket on my list of predictions, based on the Cannes reaction. I’m still not a 100% convinced that it’s going to be a contender, of course. But the idea of a Simon Rex movie being nominated for best picture was just too wonderfully strange for me to ignore. That’s the same logic that led to me including Pig as a best picture nominee, by the way.
On the Ridely Scott front, the overacting in the trailer for House of Gucci really turned me off so I dropped it from all of my predictions. The Last Duel looks like it might have a chance, however.
Anyway, the main thing to remember when looking at these predictions is that the majority of them are just random guesses, based on hunches and past Academy behavior. So, as always, take them with several grains of salt.
If you’re curious to see how my thinking has developed, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June!
A Journal For Jordan
The Last Duel
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story
Pedro Almodovar for Parallel Mothers
Paul Thomas Anderson for Soggy Bottom
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Guillermo Del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Denzel Washington for A Journal For Jordan
Nicolas Cage in Pig
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Michael B. Jordan in A Journal For Jordan
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Nicole Kidman in Being The Ricardos
Tessa Thomspon in Passing
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Bradley Cooper in Soggy Bottom
Adam Driver in The Last Duel
Simon Helberg in Annette
Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Chante Adams in A Journal For Jordan
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Ann Dowd in Mass
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Ruth Negga in Passing