Is it too early to start talking about next year’s Oscar race?
Of course, it is! But I’m going to do it anyway.
Below, you’ll find the installment of my monthly list of Oscar predictions, not for what will win at the end of March but instead for what we’ll see nominated next year. Obviously, there’s a lot that we don’t know about what’s going to happen later this year. Only a few of the movies listed below have firmly set release dates. Needless to say, I haven’t seen any of the films below and, as a result, I’m largely going on instinct. Who knows if the films will be as good as their plot descriptions? As much as I hate the overused quote from William Goldman, right now, no one knows anything. Indeed, it’s not really until Festival Season hits that we really start to get even a vaguely clear picture of the Oscar race and we’ve got a long way to go until Cannes.
(And really, it’s debatable how much of a factor Cannes really is. If the Oscar nominations were determined by Cannes, Red Rocket and The French Dispatch would be battling it out for best picture right now.)
The predictions below are, for the most part, just random guesses. Most of them involve people who have won Oscars in the past. The Fabelmans is there because it’s a Spielberg film, just as Killers of the Flower Moon makes the list because it’s directed by Martin Scorsese and it stars Leonard DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. And, of course, a lot of the predictions are just the result of wishful thinking on my part. I think it would be kind of fun if David Lynch got an acting nomination for his role in The Fabelmans, whatever that role may be. I also think it would be nice if Brendan Fraser got a nomination to go along with his recent comeback. I don’t know much about The Whale, beyond the fact that Fraser plays a 600-pound man trying to reconnect with his daughter. For now, that’s enough.
So, without further ado, here are my way too early Oscar predictions! As always, take them with a grain of salt.
Best Picture
Babylon
The Fabelmans
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Kitbag
Maestro
She Said
TAR
White Noise
The Woman King
Best Director
Damien Chazelle for Babylon
Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King
Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon
Ridley Scott for Kitbag
Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in Maestro
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers
Ryan Gosling in The Actor
Brad Pitt in Babylon
Best Actress
Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Viola Davis in The Woman King
Cate Blanchett in TAR
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
Best Supporting Actor
Bobby Cannavale in Blonde
Robert De Niro in Killer of the Flower Moon
John Boyega in The Woman King
Tom Hanks in Elvis
David Lynch in The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Tantoo Cardinal in Killers of the Flower Moon
Laura Dern in The Son
Li Jun Li in Babylon
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Through the Shattered Lens 