10 Horror Films That Should Have Been Nominated For Best Picture

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Horror films!

Audiences love them but the Academy has never quite felt the same way. True, there have been a few horror films nominated. The Exorcist was a major contender. Jaws was nominated. So was The Sixth Sense. Silence of the Lambs won.

But, for the most part, horror films have struggled to get Academy recognition. While the Academy has recently shown a willingness to honor science fiction, the horror genre has yet to benefit from the decision to increase the number of best picture nominees.

Because I love horror and I love movies and I love lists, here are ten horror films that I think deserved a best picture nomination:

Frankenstein (1931)

One of the most popular and influential horror films of all time, Frankenstein was sadly ignored by the Academy. It’s certainly better remembered than the film that won best picture of 1931, Cimarron.

2. Psycho (1960)

Psycho may have received nominations for best director, supporting actress, cinematography, and art design but the film that made people afraid to take showers did not receive a nomination for best picture. The winner that year was a legitimate classic, The Apartment. But it’s hard not to feel that Psycho should have, at the very least, received a nominations over the other 4 films nominated.

3. Night of the Living Dead (1968)

George Romero’s zombie classic may have set the standard for zombie movies to come but it was not honored the Academy. The Academy was more comfortable with Oliver!

4. The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (1974)

1974 was a very good year for the movies and certainly, I would not argue that The Texas Chainsaw Massacre deserved a nomination over The Godfather Part II, The Conversation, or Chinatown. But over The Towering Inferno? That’s another story.

5. Suspiria (1977)

Oscar nominee Dario Argento? In a perfect world, yes.

6) Halloween (1978)

The night he came home … to Oscars! If nothing else, John Carpenter’s score definitely deserved to win.

7) Dawn of the Dead (1979)

Few sequels have been nominated for best picture. Dawn of the Dead definitely should have been one of them. Who wouldn’t want to see, at the very least, Tom Savini’s speech as he accepted his special award for best makeup?

8) The Shining (1980)

Stanley Kubrick’s film may be recognized as a classic now but the reviews, when it was first released, were mixed. So, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that it wasn’t given any recognition by the Academy. It’s a shame because I’ve watched The Shining a few dozen times and it still scares the Hell out of me.

9) The Cabin In The Woods (2012)

One of the best films of the new century, this joyful tribute to the horror genre was sadly overlooked by the Academy in 2012.

10) The Neon Demon (2016)

Is Nicholas Winding Refn’s The Neon Demon truly a horror movie? It’s close enough. Though the film opened to mixed reviews, it’ll be recognized as a classic in another ten years.

Lisa Reviews An Oscar Nominee: Alfie (dir by Lewis Gilbert)

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

One night, in the UK, in 1965…

In a London flat, a phone rings. Up-and-coming actor Terrence Stamp answers. On the other end, the producers of an up-coming film called Alfie ask Stamp if he would be interested in playing the lead role. In many ways, Stamp seems like the obvious choice. After all, he already starred in the stage version of Alfie. He knows the character and everyone knows that he’s going to be a big star…

And that’s why Stamp turns down the role. The character of Alfie is an irresponsible and self-centered womanizer who, over the course of the play, has numerous affairs, arranges for one illegal abortion, treats almost everyone terribly, and, at the end of the movie, ends up alone. Not only will the film’s risqué subject matter provide a challenge, even if it is being made in “swinging London,” but Alfie just isn’t a heroic figure. He has some good lines. He makes a few good jokes and, after arranging an abortion for one of his girlfriends, he realizes just how empty his life really is. But, as written, Alfie is hardly sympathetic.

Stamp says he’s not interested in playing Alfie on screen and then he hangs up.

Two minutes later, the phone rings again. Stamp answers. It’s the producers of Alfie. They ask to speak to his roommate, a cockney actor who was born Maurice Micklewhite but who, at the start of his acting career, changed his name to Michael Caine.

And that’s how Michael Caine came to star in the 1966 film, Alfie.

Alfie not only made Michael Caine a star, it also landed him his first Oscar nomination. It was especially a popular film in the States, where it tapped into a youth culture that was obsessed with all things British and a desire, on the part of many filmgoers, to see films that deal with “adult” topics that American films, at that time, wouldn’t dare touch. Though Alfie may seem rather tame by today’s standards (for a film about a man obsessed with sex, there’s actually not much of it to be found in Alfie), one can still see why it would have taken American audiences by surprise in 1966. At a time when American films still starred Doris Day and Bob Hope, here was a British film about a working class cockney who screws almost every woman he meets, both figuratively and literally.

And really, it’s fortunate that Michael Caine accepted that role. Along with Stamp, Alfie‘s producers also tried to interest Richard Harris and Laurence Harvey in the role. All three of them would have brought a harder edge to the character. However, Michael Caine has just enough charm to make Alfie likable, even when his actions are not. Since a good deal of the film is made up of Alfie breaking the fourth wall and talking straight to the audience (and, often times, not exactly saying that most charitable of words), that charm is essential to the film’s success. Michael Caine’s Alfie is self-centered but, at the same time, you never doubt that there’s a better man lurking underneath the surface. You forgive Alfie a lot because, thanks to Caine’s performance, you can see the man that he’s capable of being.

Alfie is pretty much Michael Caine’s show but he’s ably supported by the rest of the cast, especially Jane Asher as a poignantly insecure hitchhiker and Shelley Winters as a cheerfully promiscous American. And then there’s Denholm Elliott, who plays an abortionist with a seedy intensity that catch you off-guard and drives home the dark reality lurking underneath Alfie‘s charm.

For a film that is often described as being very much a product of its time, Alfie holds up surprisingly well. It was nominated for best picture but it lost to something far more sedate, A Man For All Seasons.

4 Shots From 4 Films: The Star, The Oscar, In & Out, Tropic Thunder

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

4 Shots From 4 Films is just what it says it is, 4 shots from 4 of our favorite films. As opposed to the reviews and recaps that we usually post, 4 Shots From 4 Films is all about letting the visuals do the talking.

4 Shots From 4 Films

The Star (1952, dir by Stuart Heisler)

The Oscar (1966, dir by Russell Rouse)

In & Out (1997, dir by Frank Oz)

Tropic Thunder (2008, dir by Ben Stiller)

Lisa Reviews An Oscar Nominee: The Accidental Tourist (dir by Lawrence Kasdan)

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

I have to admit that I was tempted to be a little bit snarky in my review of the 1988 Best Picture nominee, The Accidental Tourist. I was going to say that The Accidental Tourist was a perfect example of a genre of film that has always been oddly popular with the Academy, the emotionally stunted man in New England learns to love again genre.

But, then I realized that I was wrong. The Accidental Tourist does not take place in New England. It takes place in Baltimore which may be located up north but which is technically considered to be part of the mid-Atlantic. But, even with that in mind, it was impossible for me to watch The Accidental Tourist without thinking of other New England-set Oscar nominees, such as Mystic River and Manchester By The Sea.

As for the film itself, it’s about a man whose depressing life would be unbearable to watch if not for the fact that everyone around him is so extremely eccentric. Macon Leary (William Hurt) is a travel writer. He’s writes books giving people advice on how best to behave while seeing the world. Throughout the film, we hear snippets of his prose. Macon warns people about overpacking. He warns them about arriving late at the airport. He warns them about not properly planning out their trip. He suggests that travelers bring a book to read but not too many books. And don’t bring magazines because they get wrinkled too easily. Now, to be honest, I liked most of Macon’s advice but then again, I’m OCD and I spend most of my time trying to make sure that everything I own is properly organized and can be equally divided.

A year ago, during a fast food robbery, Macon’s son was shot and killed. Withdrawing from the world, Macon barely reacts when his wife, Sarah (Kathleen Turner), leaves him. After breaking his leg while trying to convince his dog to climb down the stairs into the laundry room, Macon ends up moving in with his three siblings: autocratic Porter (David Ogden Stiers), slightly less autocratic Charles (Ed Begley, Jr.) and sweet but neurotic Rose (Amy Wright).

And so it goes. Even when his agent, Julian (Bill Pullman), starts to date Rose, Macon can’t bring himself to open up emotionally. Fortunately, Macon meets Muriel (Geena Davis), a quirky dog trainer. Though it takes a while, Muriel starts to pull Macon out of his shell. Soon, Macon is spending his nights over at her apartment and bonding with her sickly son.

(Why does every single mother in these type of movies have a sickly son? Just for once, couldn’t a single mother be portrayed as having a child who is well-adjusted, popular, and healthy?)

But, just when everything seems to be perfect, Macon’s phone rings. It’s Sarah and she wants to give their marriage another chance…

Just judging from the tone of this review, you’re probably thinking that I disliked The Accidental Tourist. Actually, nothing could be further from the truth. While the film’s mix of grim reality and relentlessly quirky supporting character can be a bit overwhelming at first, the film works if you stick with it. That’s the thing — you have to stick with it. When William Hurt first stares at the camera with his dead eyes and starts to drone about the importance of not spending too much money while in Paris, it’s tempting to just give up. But, as the film progresses, it improves and so does Hurt’s performance. By the time he finally worked up the strength to hold Muriel’s son’s hand while walking the boy home from school, I had tears in my mismatched eyes.

The Accidental Tourist is low-key but rather sweet film. While the film centers around the performances of Hurt and Geena Davis (who won an Oscar for her work here), my favorite performances came from Bill Pullman and Amy Wright. I honestly would happily watch a film that was just about their characters.

The Accidental Tourist was nominated for Best Picture but lost to Rain Man.

Scenes That I Love: “Come on, Oscar! Let’s get drunk!” from The Star!

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

In this scene, from the 1952 showbiz melodrama The Star, Bette Davis plays a faded film actress who has found the perfect drinking companion.

Interestingly enough, Bette Davis was nominated for an Oscar for getting drunk with Oscar.

Welcome to Oscar Sunday!

Posted on February 26, 2017 by Doc Bowman

Happy Oscar Sunday!

Today is an unofficial holiday among the humans. Today is the day that rich people give awards to other rich people and the whole world watches on TV!

Have a wonderful Oscar Sunday and be sure to remember: awards don’t make a film great. Greatness makes a film great!

Plus, how can you take any awards show seriously when there’s no category for Best Animal Performance? This year’s winner? Keanu the Kitten!

The Academy has spoken.

This year’s winner for Best Animal Actor!

Enjoy the Oscars on ABC at 7 eastern/4 pacific! And check back on the Shattered Lens for a whole day of Oscar-related stuff (and maybe some non-Oscar related stuff as well!)

Lisa Makes Her Oscar Predictions!

Posted on February 25, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Okay, here’s the moment that I’m sure you’ve all been looking forward to!

It’s time for me to make my Oscar predictions!

Yay! It’s good to see that everyone’s excited!

Here is who I think will win tomorrow night:

Best Picture — La La Land

Best Director — Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Actor — Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress — Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor — Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress — Viola Davis, Fences

Best Original Screenplay — Manchester By The Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay — Arrival

Best Animated Feature — Zootopia

Best Art Direction — La La Land

Best Cinematography — La La Land

Best Costume Design — La La Land

Best Editing — La La Land

Best Makeup — A Man Called Ove

Best Sound Mixing — La La Land

Best Sound Editing — Hacksaw Ridge

Best Visual Effects — The Jungle Book

Best Original Song — “City of Stars” from La La Land

Best Original Score — La La Land

Best Documentary Feature — 13th

Best Foreign Language Film — The Salesman

Best Animated Short — Pear and Cider Cigarettes

Best Documentary Short — The White Helmets

Best Live Action Short — Timecode

To be honest, the only prediction that I’m 100% comfortable making is that this year’s Oscar ceremony is probably going to be the most political one in history. Some people will love that. Some people will be outraged. Me, I just care about movies.

The Oscar air tomorrow on ABC, at 4 eastern and 7 pacific. I will be live tweeting the awards and, of course, we’ll be posting Oscar-related stuff here on the Shattered Lens all through Sunday!

Even Charles Foster Kane is excited!

And by the way, if you want get a head start on next year’s Oscars, why not check out my way too early predictions for January and February?

Enjoy!

Lisa Reviews an Oscar Nominee: Roman Holiday (dir by William Wyler)

Posted on February 22, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

The 1953 film Roman Holiday is one that I’ve watched quite a few times. If you know anything about the film and/or me, you won’t be surprised by that. I love Audrey Hepburn. I love Rome. I love romance. And I love bittersweet endings. And Roman Holiday has all four of those!

Speaking of Audrey Hepburn, I’ve shared this picture before but I’m going to share it again:

That is Audrey Hepburn, the morning after she won the Best Actress Oscar for Roman Holiday. Roman Holiday was Audrey Hepburn’s motion picture debut and it continues to hold up as one of the greatest film debuts of all time. Watching how easily she controls and dominates the screen in Roman Holiday, you would think that she had made over a 100 films previously.

The film tells a simple story, really. Audrey plays Ann, the crown princess of an unnamed country. Princess Ann is touring the world. The press is following her every move. Her royal handlers are carefully choreographing every event. Her ever-present bodyguards are always present to make sure that no one gets too close to her. In public, Ann is the epitome of royal discretion, smiling politely and always being careful to say exactly the right thing. But, in private, Ann is restless. Ann knows that she has never been allowed to see the real world and yearns to escape, if just for one night, and live a normal life. So far, her handlers have managed to keep her under control but then she arrives in Rome and…

…well, who can resist Rome?

Despite having been given a sedative earlier, Ann stays awake long enough to sneak out of her hotel room and see the enchanting Rome night life. Of course, the sedative does eventually kick in and she ends up falling asleep on a bench. It’s there that she’s discovered by an American, a cynical reporter named Joe Bradley (Gregory Peck). Not realizing who she is and, instead, assuming she’s just a tourist who has been overwhelmed by Rome, Joe allows her to spend the night at his apartment.

The next morning, Joe finds out who Ann actually is. Realizing that getting an exclusive interview with Ann could be his ticket to the big time, Joe and his photographer, Irving (Eddie Albert), rush back to Joe’s apartment. Joe doesn’t tell her that he’s a reporter. He just offers to take her on a tour of Rome. Ann, however, wants to experience Rome on her own.

What follows is a wonderful and romantic travelogue of the glory of Rome. Though Ann does explore on her own for a while, she eventually does meet back up with Joe and Irving. Whenever I watch Roman Holiday, I always try to put myself in the shoes of someone in 1953, sitting in the audience during the film’s first week of release. For many of them, this film may have been their first chance to ever see Rome. (The opening credits of Roman Holiday proudly announce that the entire film was shot on location, properly acknowledging the Rome is as much a star of this film as Hepburn, Peck, and Albert.) If you’re not already in love with Rome (and I fell in love with the city — and really, the entire country of Italy — the summer after I graduated high school), you will be after watching Roman Holiday.

(If you truly want to have a wonderful double feature, follow-up Roman Holiday with La Dolce Vita.)

The film’s most famous scene occurs at the Mouth of Truth and… well, just watch…

This scene was improvised, on the spot, by Gregory Peck. Audrey Hepburn’s scream was very much real as Peck didn’t tell her what he was planning on doing. As great as this scene is, it’s even better after you’ve actually been to Rome and put your own hand in the Mouth of Truth.

It’s a very sweet movie, one that stands as both a tribute to romance but also proof of what pure movie star charisma can accomplish. It’s not just that Audrey Hepburn gives a great performance as Princess Ann. It’s that Gregory Peck gives one of his most natural and surprisingly playful performance as well. It’s that Peck and Hepburn have an amazing chemistry. By the end of the film, you know that they deserve Rome and Rome deserves them.

And then there’s that ending, that bittersweet ending that always brings tears my mismatched eyes. It’s a sad (though not depressing) little ending but somehow, it’s also the only ending that would work.

Roman Holiday was nominated for best picture but it lost to From Here To Eternity.

That’s right — Roman Holiday and From Here To Eternity were released one after another.

1953 was a very good year.

Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions For February

Posted on February 16, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Well, it’s that time again!

Every month this year, I am updating my predictions for which films and performers will be nominated for Oscars in 2018. At this point in the year, this is largely an academic exercise. The nominees below are a mix of wild guesses, instinctual feeling, and wishful thinking. Usually, a clear picture of the Oscar race doesn’t start to form until October at the earliest. (Last year, at this time, nobody had even heard of Moonlight or Hell or High Water.) In other words, take these predictions with a grain of salt.

This update is heavily influenced by what happened at the Sundance Film Festival last month. In fact, it’s probably a bit too influenced by Sundance. If these predictions turned out to be 100% correct, the 2018 Oscars would be the Sundance Oscars. That said, it seems that there’s always a few successful Oscar campaigns that start during Sundance. (And then there’s always a few Sundance sensations that totally fizzle during awards season. Birth of a Nation, anyone? Or perhaps The End of the Tour.) But, as of right now, Sundance is pretty much the only thing that we have to go on, as far as future Oscar contenders are concerned.

Again, take all of this with a grain of salt. Just because I may brag about knowing what I’m talking about, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I do.

Check out January’s predictions here!

And without further ado…

Mudbound

Best Picture

Battle of the Sexes

The Beguiled

The Big Sick

Blade Runner 2047

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The big additions here are Mudbound, The Big Sick, and Call Me By Your Name, all three of which got a lot of attention and acclaim at Sundance. Both Mudbound and Call Me By Your Name are already being mentioned, by some Oscar bloggers, as possible winners for best picture. The Big Sick may seem like more of a dark horse but, from what I’ve read, it sounds like the sort of movie that could emerge as a surprise contender. With its Muslim protagonist and its mix of comedy and drama, it sounds like it could catch the cultural zeitgeist.

Dropping from the list: T2, All Eyez On Me, and War Machine. T2 has gotten good but not great reviews in the UK. As for All Eyez on Me and War Machine — well, it’s just a feeling I have. Both of them could be good but it’s easier to imagine a scenario in which they’re both disappointments.

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino for Call Me By Your Name

Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk

Alexander Payne for Downsizing

Dee Rees for Mudbound

Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2047

Guadagnino and Rees are new contenders. Rees would be the first black woman ever nominated for best director.

Best Actor

Chadwick Boseman in Marshall

Timothée Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name

Tom Cruise in American Made

Kumail Nanjiani in The Big Sick

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

I’m a little bit iffy on Chadwick Boseman. In Marshall, he will be playing Thurgood Marshall, which sounds like a good, Oscar baity role. But Marshall itself sounds like a rather standard biopic. Timothee Chalamet and, especially, Kumail Nanjiani received a lot of Sundance acclaim. The fact that Nanjiani has been outspoken in his opposition to Trump’s travel ban will probably help his chances.

Sundance was also responsible for Logan Lerman falling off this list. Sidney Hall got terrible reviews.

Best Actress

Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul

Danielle MacDonald in Patti Cake$

Carey Mulligan in Mudbound

Lois Smith in Marjorie Prime

Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes

Among the new additions, Danielle MacDonald was one of the break-out stars at Sundance. Carey Mulligan is due to get another nomination (and Mudbound is expected to be a major Oscar contender). As for Lois Smith, she’s a respected veteran actress who gets to play a rare lead role in Marjorie Prime. So, why not a nomination?

Best Supporting Actor

James Franco in The Masterpiece

Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name

Jason Mitchell in Mudbound

Bill Skarsgard in It

Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me By Your Name

I’m continuing to predict a nomination for James Franco and yes, it probably is just wishful thinking on my part. But dammit, I just like the idea of Franco getting a nomination for playing Tommy Wiseau.

Skarsgard is probably wishful thinking as well. If It works, it will be because of Skarsgard’s performance as Pennywise.

Finally, Hammer, Mitchell, and Stuhlbarg are our Sundance nominees. Many people think that all three are overdue for some Academy recognition. (There’s some debate over whether Hammer should go supporting or lead for Call Me By Your Name. I’m going to assume that he’s going to pull a Viola Davis and go supporting.)

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige in Mudbound

Holly Hunter in The Big Sick

Melissa Leo in Novitiate

Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour

Tilda Swinton in War Machine

As always, this is the most difficult category to predict. Blige, Hunter, and Leo are all Sundance nominees. (Hunter is especially said to be award-worthy in her Big Sick role.) For the second month in a row, Scott Thomas and Swinton are listed more because of who they are than any other reason.

The Big Sick

Lisa Marie’s Thoughts On The Oscar Nominations

Posted on January 24, 2017 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Okay, I’ve had plenty of time to think about today’s Oscar nominations and now I’m ready to share my thoughts. Obviously, my picks were a lot different from what the Academy selected. That’s okay. That’s the way it goes every year. I don’t mind being a contrarian.

So, let’s take a look at what was nominated, category-by-category.

(If you need a refresher as to what was nominated, here’s a complete list of nominees!)

Best Live Action Short, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short: I’m sure that these three categories are full of wonderful nominees that were created by wonderful people but I don’t believe that I’ve seen a single one of them. So, with that in mind, I can only imagine that the Academy did a perfect job selecting all 15 of these nominees! Good work, Academy!

Best Foreign Language Film: Again, I have seen none of the nominees so I really can’t comment one way or another. Normally, this would make me feel like a failure but I imagine that 90% of the people reading this post are in the same boat. I imagine Toni Erdmann will win, just because of all the good things I’ve read about it. But, since I haven’t actually seen any of the nominees, I will refrain from making any sort of prediction.

Best Documentary Feature: I’m disappointed that my favorite documentary, The Witness, was not nominated. And, quite frankly, I’m shocked that Weiner was not nominated. That said, I can’t complain about any of the documentaries that actually were nominated. It was a good year for documentaries. In fact, it could be argued that it was a better year for documentaries than for features.

Should Win: O.J.: Made in America

Will Win: 13th

Best Original Song: Not a single song from Sing Street was nominated and that is amazingly disappointing. Original song can be surprising. Remember last year when that terrible song from SPECTRE somehow won? That said, I’m expecting that this year will see a huge sweep by La La Land and one of its nominated songs will probably win.

Should Win: Audition (The Fools Who Can Dream) from La La Land

Will Win: City of Stars from La La Land

Best Original Score: The Neon Demon deserved a nomination but I’m not surprised it was snubbed. There’s no way the Academy was going to honor Nicholas Winding Refn’s subversive masterpiece. La La Land is going to win this one easily.

Should Win: La La Land

Will Win: La La Land

Best Visual Effects: I was glad to see that Kubo and the Two Strings was nominated and I wish that Arrival had been nominated as well. I’m going to go ahead and predict that Doctor Strange will be the first MCU film to win an Oscar.

Should Win: Doctor Strange

Will Win: Doctor Strange

Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing: Let’s be honest. I couldn’t explain the difference between sound editing and sound mixing and, unless you specifically work in the sound department, neither could you. As a result, these categories are always difficult to predict. But Hacksaw Ridge has to get some love somewhere and I bet it would happen here if not for La La Land.

Should Win (Both): Hacksaw Ridge

Will Win (Both): La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: As soon as I saw that Deadpool wasn’t nominated here, I knew it wouldn’t be nominated anywhere. Can you believe that fucking Suicide Squad is now an Oscar nominee? I haven’t seen A Man Called Ove but I’m going to predict its victory because I just can’t imagine the Academy honoring either Star Trek Beyond or Suicide Squad.

Should Win: Star Trek Beyond (that had good makeup in it, right?)

Will Win: A Man Called Ove

Best Film Editing: I can’t complain about any of the films nominated here. La La Land is pretty much a guaranteed winner here.

Should Win: La La Land

Will Win: La La Land

Best Costume Design: I was shocked that Love & Friendship was not nominated. If La La Land sweeps, it’ll win here. When I made out my list of my personal picks for the Oscars, I gave the costuming Oscar to La La Land but now that I’m looking at the actual nominees, I’m remembering just how good everyone looked in Allied.

Should Win: Allied

Will Win: La La Land

Best Cinematography: My personal pick for this award was The Neon Demon but it wasn’t nominated. Out of the nominated films, I would go with Moonlight but I think La La Land is going to sweep.

Should Win: Moonlight

Will Win: La La Land

Best Production Design: Well, it won’t be Passengers! How the Hell did that get nominated for anything? I think, of the nominees, Arrival deserves the award for making science fiction feel and look like science fact. But, again, I think La La Land is going to win here. (Are you sensing a theme in my predictions?)

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: La La Land

Best Animated Feature: I was happy that Kubo and the Two Strings, Zootopia, and Moana were all nominated. I haven’t seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini but, on the whole, the Academy has a record of nominating the right films for this award. I loved Kubo and I think it might win, just because it picked up that Visual Effects nomination as well. Zootopia, however, would allow the Academy to make a political point and Moana has Lin-Manuel Miranda. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a Kubo victory but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these five nominees won.

Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Will Win: ~~Zootopia~~ ~~Kubo and the Two Strings~~ ~~Moana Zootopia~~ Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Adapted Screenplay: With La La Land likely to sweep the technical awards and Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight set to pick up some acting awards, this category will give the Academy a chance to acknowledge Arrival.

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: Arrival

Best Original Screenplay: I think this is one of the few awards that La La Land will not win. This category gives the Academy a chance to honor Hell or High Water.

Should Win: Hell or High Water

Will Win: Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis is a guaranteed winner, even though her performance was a lead role.

Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences

Best Supporting Actor: I was really happy to see that Michael Shannon got a nomination because Shannon is a great actor who always seems to be taken for granted. That said, Mahershala Ali is almost as much of a lock as Viola Davis.

Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Actress: Let’s just get this out of the way. Amy Adams not only deserved a nomination, she also deserved the Oscar. Arrival works because of a twist that occurs halfway through the film. The twist works because of Amy Adams’s performance. If not for Amy Adams, Arrival would never have been nominated for best picture. The fact that she was not nominated will be remembered as one of the biggest mistakes in Academy history.

This morning, I was happy to see that a lot of people on twitter agreed with me about the Amy Adams snub. What took me by surprise was how many people also agreed with me that Meryl Streep essentially took a spot that should have been given to Amy Adams. This morning, among other things, I discovered that there’s actually a growing backlash against the annual tradition of automatically nominating Meryl Streep, regardless of whether the film was any good or not.

Could Meryl win yet again? It depends on whether or not the Academy wants to hear another Meryl Streep speech. Given the political climate, I wouldn’t discount that as a possibility. Since I’m on the subject and it’s possible that everyone stopped reading a few categories ago, I’m going to go ahead and admit my unpopular opinion. While I’m definitely not a fan of the new President, Meryl’s Golden Globe speech felt like almost a parody of upper class white liberalism. Listening to her, it was easy to imagine Meryl at a cocktail party, bragging about how she’s on a first name basis with her maid.

But, I’m in the minority as far as that opinion is concerned. The Industry loved Meryl’s speech and, after Donald Trump’s overreaction to it, giving an Oscar to Meryl and giving her a chance to repeat the speech on a much bigger stage would be the perfect way to give the finger to the current administration.

That said, I think Emma Stone will be carried along in the La La Land sweep. Whether justified or not, many members of the Academy will look at her character and see themselves.

Should Win: Amy Adams in Arrival (Yes, she wasn’t nominated but she should still win, goddammit.)

Will Win: Emma Stone in La La Land

Best Actor: Could anyone other than Casey Affleck win this one? Denzel Washington is popular and giving him an Oscar for Fences would be a nice to way to reward all of the effort that he put into bringing this acclaimed play to the screen. Affleck was sued for sexual harassment by a producer and a cinematogrpaher and ended up settling with both of them. However, I doubt if it will stop him from winning the Oscar. If the allegations were going to hurt Affleck’s chances, it would have happened long before now.

As for the nominees — well, I have no complaints. While I wasn’t as impressed with Affleck’s performance as some, I think he did well enough. I would have liked to have seen either Sully‘s Tom Hanks or Hell or High Water‘s Chris Pine nominated. I’m glad that Andrew Garfield picked up his first nomination.

Should Win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Will Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea

Best Director: I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a minor upset. I think La La Land is going to win in a lot of categories but I think that Moonlight‘s Barry Jenkins will win this Oscar. Best Picture and Director have been split fairly regularly over the past few years and, after both the #OscarsSoWhite controversy and the 2016 presidential election, it may be felt that it’s time for a black director to finally win the Oscar. Based on the skill shown in Whiplash and La La Land, Damien Chazelle will have other opportunities.

Should Win: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Will Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Picture: Though I don’t necessarily think it was one of the best films of the year, I would have loved it if Deadpool had actually scored a nomination. It would have been an unexpected surprise and it would have shaken up a race that’s gotten rather predictable.

But no. Deadpool received no nominations and the expected films were nominated. Perhaps the only thing that could be considered surprising (though not that surprising) was that Martin Scorsese’s passion project, Silence, was not only snubbed for best picture but also only picked up one nomination. Passengers picked up more nominations that Martin Scorsese’s latest film. When it comes to total number of nominations, Silence is tired with Suicide Squad.

La La Land is going to win. It’s probably going to win nearly all 14 of the Oscars it has been nominated for. My pick for the best film of 2016 was American Honey. Of the nominees, I think Arrival is the one that deserves to win. But La La Land is an exuberant valentine to both the Academy and the industry.

La La Land‘s going to win.

Should Win: Arrival

Will Win: La La Land