Once again, even trying to predict the Oscars this year seems like a fool’s errand.
Our story so far:
- COVID-19 shut everything down, including both theaters and production on many of the films that were expected to be contenders for the 2020 Oscars.
- The Academy announced that, for this year only, VOD and streaming-only films would be considered eligible for the Oscars. That’s good news for all of the films premiering on Netflix and Prime right now, right?
- It looked briefly as if theaters might start reopening in July. Tenet awaits!
- Oh wait, there’s still a pandemic going on. Keep those theaters closed.
- But what about Tenent!? Tenet will open in July, no matter what!
- Tenet gets moved back to August. Every other big production gets moved back to August and chances are they’ll get moved back again.
- The Academy, meanwhile, throws everything into even more disarray by announcing that they will be extending the eligibility window to the end of February of 2021.
- And now, we’re all waiting to see which films will be moved either back or forward to a January or February 2021 opening in order to qualify for the Oscars.
In other words, who knows what’s going to be eligible once the Academy finally gets around to selecting their nominees. Personally, I wish they hadn’t moved the eligibility window. It feels like a bunch of studios complained about the having to release all of their big movies via VOD so the Academy said, “Okay, we’ll give you an extra two months.” With the way things are going, though, it’s totally possible that theaters could still be closed in January and February so joke’s on them. ENJOY YOUR VOD OSCARS, YA BASTARDS!
Anyway, here are my monthly Oscar predictions. I did the best I could with what little information is actually out there. Normally, I would say that the Da 5 Bloods came out too early to be remembered at Oscar time but this is not a typical year. Despite the best picture victories of 12 Years A Slave and Moonlight, no black director has ever won best director. If there’s ever a year when the Academy is going to be motivated to rectify that, it will be this year.
Da 5 Bloods
News of the World
On The Rocks
West Side Story
Ron Howard for Hillbilly Elegy
Paul Greengrass for News of the World
Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Courier
Tom Hanks in News of the World
Sir Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods
Bill Murray in On the Rocks
Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Angelina Jolie in Those Who Wish Me Dead
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Kate Winslet in Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Tom Burke in Mank
Richard E. Grant in Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7
Forest Whitaker in Respect
Best Supporting Actress
Abigail Breslin in Stillwater
Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Saoirse Ronan in Ammonite
Helena Zengel in News of the World