Well, the year’s nearly over and that means that it is time for me to post my final Oscar predictions for 2021. The race has gotten much clearer with the start of the precursor season. The critics love The Power of the Dog. However, it’s perhaps a bit too early to declare it the front runner. I want to see how things go with the Guilds in January before I bestow that title on any film.
A few thoughts:
There are ten Best Picture nominees this year so we won’t have any of that, “Here’s a random number of nominees” crap. In theory, that should open the door for some unconventional nominees that might have missed the cut-off in previous years. Again, I said, “In theory.” They tried this 10 nominee thing before and it didn’t really lead to the results that a lot of people were expecting.
Still, I’m going to swing out on a web and predict a Best Picture nomination for Spider-Man: No Way Home. It’s got Disney and Sony behind it. It’s making a ton of money despite not playing in China. It’ the film that’s currently giving the industry hope that there’s a future outside of the streaming sites. Plus, after the nominations of Black Panther and Joker, it might be time to give the whole “They’ll never nominate a comic book movie!” argument a rest.
I’m also going to predict a Best Picture nomination for Drive My Car, which has been getting a lot of attention from the critics.
The critics also loved West Side Story but now, it’s probably best known for being a bust at the box office. I still think the movie will be nominated but I don’t think it’ll win. And I think it’s a lot less likely that Rita Moreno will pick up a nomination. People seem to have moved on from the movie. Again, this could all change once the Guilds start announcing their nominations.
The critics are split on Don’t Look Up. I personally think it’s one of the worst films of 2021. But the film will be nominated for much the same reason that The Big Short and Vice were nominated. There’s a lot of Academy members who agree with McKay’s politics. And the people who do like Don’t Look Up really, really like it. And I also think there’s probably enough people annoyed with Elon Musk that Mark Rylance will sneak into the supporting actor race.
Belfast has not been dominating the early part of awards season but I think it will come on strong once the Guilds start announce their nominations.
Anywya, these are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September and October and November!
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car
Denis Villeneueve for Dune
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Andrew Gardield for tick….tick….BOOM!
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Rachel Zegler in West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Troy Kostur in CODA
Mark Rylance in Don’t Look Up
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose in West Side Story
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
Marlee Matlin in CODA



It is easy to forget what a big deal the first X-Men movie was in 2000. At a time when Joel Schumacher was still the industry’s go-to director for super hero films, X-Men announced that films based on comic books did not have to be campy, silly, stupid, or feature Alicia Silverstone. When X-Men was first released, critics and audiences were surprised to see a comic book film that was intelligent, well-acted, and actually about something.
The success of X-Men has also led to a 16 year-old franchise of movies about mutants and their struggle to live in a world that fears them. X-Men: Apocalypse is the 9th installment in that franchise and it is based on the Fall of the Mutants storyline, which ran through several Marvel comics in 1988.
What’s interesting is that, even though Fassbender and McAvoy share a few scenes, this is the first X-Men film to not feature any sort of debate between Xavier and Magneto. Magneto, one of the greatest comic book villains of all time, is actually a little boring here and, without those debates, Apocalypse lacks the subtext that distinguished the best of the previous X-Men films. The emphasis is less on what it means to be an outsider and more on defeating Apocalypse. Unfortunately, Apocalypse is a great character in the comic books but he does not translate well into film. Unlike Magneto, who has several good and justifiable reasons for not trusting humanity, the film version of Apocalypse is portrayed as being pure evil and little else. His plan to destroy the world never makes much sense and he is almost as bland as Dr. Doom in the latest Fantastic Four reboot. Apocalypse could be any villain from any comic book movie that has been released over the past 16 years. He could just as easily be the Living Eraser.







