We’re nearly halfway through 2018 and it’s time for me to once again post my somewhat random Oscar predictions!
As usual, these predictions are a combination of instinct or wishful thinking. Do I really think that Orson Welles’s final film will dominate the Oscars? Well, why not? It’d be a great story if it happened. The same goes for Black Panther becoming the first comic book movie to receive a best picture nomination. It’d be nice if it happened and, with most of the contenders still unseen, there’s no reason to arbitrarily dismiss the film’s chances.
Based on the reaction that it received at Cannes, I’ve added Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman to my list of predicted best picture nominees.
As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. Some of these films and performers will be nominated. (First Man, for instance, seems like a lock.) Many of them will not. If nothing else, my monthly predictions always seem to be useful for a good laugh in retrospect. And there’s nothing wrong with that! The predictions that don’t come true are often even more fun than the predictions that do.
It should also be remembered that some of the films listed below don’t even set release dates yet. Some of them might not even open this year. There are other films — like Burden — that seems like they should be contenders but they’ve yet to get a distributor. And then there’s Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which is scheduled to be released by Netflix in 2019 but it’s always possible that film could be moved up on the schedule. If The Irishman does get a last-minute December release, chances are that the Oscar race will be dramatically altered.
Or maybe not. Remember how Silence was a front runner all through 2016, just to end up with one nomination? It’s hard to predict which films will have “that Barton Fink feeling.”
(Yes, I’m currently watching Barton Fink. Thinking about the Oscars will enjoying a film from the Coen Brothers? Life is good, as my twitter girl crush often puts it.)
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary, Queen of Scots
The Other Side of the Wind
A Star is Born
White Boy Rick
Damien Chazelle for First Man
Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk
Spike Lee for BlackKklansman
Steve McQueen for Widows
Orson Welles for The Other Side of the Wind
Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy
Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born
Willem DaFoe in At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling in First Man
Robert Redford in The Old Man & The Gun
Viola Davis in Widows
Felicity Jones in On The Basis of Sex
Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Chloe Grace Moretz in The Miseducation of Cameron Post
Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy
Russell Crowe in Boy Erased
Adam Driver in BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott in A Star is Born
Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Claire Foy in First Man
Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased
Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie in Mary, Queen of Scots
Sissy Space in The Old Man & The Gun