Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Really?  Oscar predictions on Halloween night?

Eh.  Why not?

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Sydney Sweeney in Christy

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Amy Madigan in Weapons

One Battle After Another Leads The Gotham Nominations


For better or worse, Awards Season started today with the announcement of the Gotham nominations.  The Gothams are supposed to honor independent films, though the line between studio and independent is now so thin that it’s sometimes difficult to tell which is which.

In the past, the Gothams honored obscure films and also low-budget films that captured the public’s imagination.  This year, they gave the majority of their nominations to One Battle After Another, a big-budget film that starred a slew of Hollywood heavyweights.  Meanwhile, Sinners, a genuinely independent feature, received one nomination.

It’s debatable how much of a precursor the Gothams are.  They’re a critic-selected award and it’s always the guild awards that serve as the best precursors.  Still, it always helps to be mentioned somewhere.

Here are the 2025 Gotham nominations!

Best Feature
Bugonia
East of Wall
Hamnet
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lurker
One Battle After Another
Sorry, Baby
The Testament of Ann Lee
Train Dreams

Best Director
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Kelly Reichardt – The Mastermind
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Oliver Laxe – Sirât

Outstanding Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Sopé Dìrísù – My Father’s Shadow
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Indya Moore – Father Mother Sister Brother
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sorry, Baby
Sound of Falling

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Preparation for the Next Life
Train Dreams

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Resurrection
Sound of Falling

Best Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Breakthrough Director
Constance Tsang – Blue Sun Palace
Carson Lund – Eephus
Sarah Friedland – Familiar Touch
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Harris Dickinson – Urchin

Breakthrough Performer
A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest
Sebiye Behtiyar – Preparation for the Next Life
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Abou Sangaré – Souleymane’s Story
Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman

6 Things That I Am Looking Forward To In October


Welcome to October!  October is a big month here at the Shattered Lens.  It’s the month when we devote the majority of our time to the horror genre.  It’s time for our annual Horrorthon!  Last year, we had a record number of Horrorthon posts.  I’d love to break that record this year but mostly. I just want this year’s Horrothon to be fun for both our writers and our readers!

Here’s what I’m looking forward to in October!

  1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein — I think I was one of the few people who unreservedly loved Del Toro’s version of Nightmare Alley and I’m very much looking forward to seeing what he does with Mary Shelley’s classic tale.  Oscar Isaac as Victor Frankenstein just feels like perfect casting.
  2. The Horror Movies On TCM — TCM never lets me down in October.  I can’t wait to binge all of the classic horror that will be aired this month.
  3. Nouvelle Vague — Richard Linklater’s tribute to the French New Wave is scheduled to be released in theaters on October 31st and then on Netflix two weeks later.  While I was a bit disappointed with last year’s Hit Man, I still look forward to every new Linklater film.  Speaking of which….
  4. Blue Moon — Linklater’s other 2025 film is scheduled for an October 17th release.  Ethan Hawke is said to be brilliant in this film.
  5. After The Hunt — I’m not really a huge fan of director Luca Guadagnino and I’ll probably never forgive him not only his Suspiria remake but also his uncharitable words about the original.  That said, After The Hunt has gotten such mixed reviews that I’m intrigued.  Julia Roberts is said to give one of her best performances in the film but the film’s storyline has been criticized.  Whenever critics give a negative review to a politically-charged film, I feel almost duty-bound to watch the film and decide for myself.
  6. Halloween — It’s my favorite holiday!  I can’t wait to see all the decorations, all the parties, and all the costumes!

October’s going to be a great month and those of us at TSL can’t wait to celebrate it with you!  What are you looking forward to in October?

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August


As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals.  The early word on some films is very strong.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

F1

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Horror Film Review: The Black Phone (dir by Scott Derrickson)


“Arm like a mint!” a character exclaims at a key moment in 2021’s The Black Phone and I’ll admit right now that, when I heard that line, I rolled my eyes so violently that I’m lucky that I didn’t lose one of them.

It’s one of those lines that reminds us that we’re watching a movie that’s based on a short story and that the dialogue that works in a piece of literature can often sound awkward and forced when heard on film.  It’s a line that, at least for a few moments, took me right out of the movie’s reality and reminded me that I was watching was indeed just a movie.

There’s actually a few moments like that in The Black Phone but, fortunately, there’s more than enough that works about this movie to make up for what doesn’t work.

Taking place in a Denver suburb in 1978, The Black Phone deals with the evil activities of a serial abducted and murderer who is known only as The Grabber (Ethan Hawke).  The Grabber (who really should demand a better nickname) has spent years grabbing children off of the street and then holding them prisoner in his basement before killing them.  The Grabber drives a van and he usually wears a mask.  The mask is creepy but it also tells us something about The Grabber’s personality.  Obviously, when he talks the kids into getting into his van (or getting close enough for him to grab them), the Grabber can’t wear his mask so he’s not wearing the mask so he won’t be identified.  Instead, he wears the mask as perhaps a way to keep his “normal” life separated from his life as The Grabber.  Maybe that’s how this middle-aged man justifies being everyone’s worst nightmare.  Perhaps he tells himself that he’s not responsible for what he does when he puts on the mask.  Once he puts on the mask, anything bad that happens is the fault of The Grabber.

The Grabber’s latest victim is Finney (Mason Thames).  While Finney waits in the basement, his father (Jeremy Davies) struggles with his own alcoholism and his sister, Gwen (Madeleine McGraw), tries to get someone — anyone — to take her psychic visions seriously.  Gwen is determined to find and rescue her brother but, early on, the audience realizes that only Finney can save himself.  Fortunately, Finney has some help in the form of the ghosts of the Grabber’s other victims, all of whom call Finney on a black phone in the basement.  They offer Finney advice on how both to survive and how to fight against The Grabber.  Some of the ghosts are angry.  Some of them are surprisingly cheerful.  All of them are understandably eager to help Finney fight their murderer.

It’s an effective film, even if it does feel a bit overlong.  The film is based on a short story and it’s hard not to feel that the story would have been better served by a 30-minute short film than an obviously extended feature film.  That said, The Grabber is a genuinely creepy villain and the film leaves you feeling as if anyone in the film could easily become his next victim if Finney doesn’t figure out a way to get out of that basement.  Interestingly, by casting the handsome Hawke as a child abducted and murderer and the nervous Jeremy Davies as an imperfect father who wants to do better, the film challenges our assumptions about both characters.  The Black Phone is a film that effectively captures the terror of everyday life.

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For March


Now that the 2022 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2023 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  I mean, Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence.  For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner.  Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews.  Audiences stayed away.  The film ended up with one technical nomination.

My point is that no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

So, you may be asking, how did I come up with the nominees below?  For the most part, I guessed.  A few of them I went with because of the people who made the film.  Though shooting has wrapped, Ferrari might not even be released this year but it’s a Michael Mann film that stars Adam Driver so, for now, I have to include it.  Of course, I had to include Scorsese and Killers of the Flower Moon.  Asteroid City is there because the Academy embraced Wes Anderson once and it could always happen again.  Fair Play and Magazine Dreams‘s Jonathan Majors are listed because the Sundance Film Festival is still a recent memory.  Maestro is there because the Academy seems like to Bradley Cooper.  Dune Part Two and Oppenheimer are there because Film Twitter is convinced that they will be.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

Asteroid City

The Color Purple

Dune Part Two

Fair Play

Ferrari

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Rustin

Best Director

Chloe Domont for Fair Play

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Jonathan Majors in Magazine Dreams

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Emily Blunt in Pain Hustlers

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Julia Roberts in Leave the World Behind

Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Leave The World Behind

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Ethan Hawke in Strange Way Of Life

Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Tantoo Cardinal in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Florence Pugh in Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton in Asteroid City

10 Oscar Snubs From The 2010s


And now, we reach the present day!  A lot has changed over the past few decades but one thing has remained consistent.  No matter how hard the Academy tries, some good movies and performances are always going to get snubbed.  Here are ten snubs from the previous decade.

2011: Shame Is Totally Ignored

Despite being critically acclaimed and receiving nominations from other groups, Steve McQueen’s Shame was totally ignored by the Academy.  My theory is a lot of people looked at Michael Fassbender playing an emotionally detached, self-destructive sex addict and they basically saw aspects of themselves that they didn’t want to acknowledge.  Shame caused too much shame amongst the voters.

2012: The Master Is Not Nominates For Best Picture

When The Master was first released, a lot of people didn’t really know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s barely disguised portrait of Scientology.  The film received only three nominations, for Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams.  It deserved quite a bit more but, in 2012, I imagine the film’s portrait of a charismatic cult leader taking advantage of his wealthy followers seemed a bit too familiar to some voters.

2013: Tom Hanks Is Not Nominated For Best Actor For Captain Phillips

Looking over today’s list of snubs, a recurring theme seems to be actors who were not nominated because the Academy took them and their talent for granted.  That’s the only possible reason that I can come up with for the Academy to have not nominated Tom Hanks for his outstanding lead performance in Captain Phillips.  Just consider the scene at the end of the film, when the shellshocked and exhausted Captain Phillips is examined by a nurse and he can’t stop talking about the blood on his clothes.  It’s a devastating scene, largely because the audience doesn’t feel as if they’re watching Tom Hanks give a performance.  At that moment, they feel that they are watching a man who has just been through the worst experience of his life and who, even though he is now safe, will be forever haunted by what he has witnessed.

2014: Guardians of the Galaxy Is Not Nominated For Best Picture

Seriously, if any MCU film deserved to be nominated for Best Picture, it was Guardians of the Galaxy.  It was a fun movie with a charismatic cast and, despite what some critics claimed, it actually did have something to say about the importance of tolerance and individual freedom.  It even holds up well to repeat viewings, which is not exactly something that you can say about a few of the other MCU film.

2016: Amy Adams Is Not Nominated For Best Actress For Arrival

Much as they did with Tom Hanks and his performance in Captain Phillips, the Academy took Amy Adams for granted and failed to nominate her for Arrival, despite the fact that it was her best performance to date.  At this point, if I’m Amy Adams, I would be wondering just what it is that I’m going to have to do to finally get my Oscar.

2017: Ethan Hawke Is Not Nominates For Best Actor For First Reformed

This is another snub that I can’t get my head around.  Ethan Hawke has been nominated in the past.  The Academy is obviously not resistant to honoring Ethan Hawke.  So how was it that one of his best performances went unnominated?  For that matter, how is it that First Reformed itself only received one Oscar nomination?

2019: The Souvenir Is Ignored

Despite being one of the best films of the past ten years, The Souvenir was ignored by Academy.  The things that made the film work, like its low-key but honest performances and its refusal to pass easy judgment on its characters, are probably the same things that caused the Academy to overlook it.

2020: The Assistant Is Ignored

This was a powerful film and it featured an award-worthy performance from Julia Garner.  It was also about Harvey Weinstein so I guess I shouldn’t be too shocked that the Academy snubbed it.  The Assistant is a film that probably hit too close to home for many members of the Academy.

2021: Val Is Not Nominated For Best Documentary Feature

Val is one of the most affecting documentaries that I’ve ever seen but the Documentary Branch failed to even give it a nomination.  Maybe, like The Assistant, Val just hit too close to home for some of the voters.

2021: Mass Is Ignored

Again, I will never understand how the Academy can fail to give even one nomination to a film as good as Mass.  As with The Souvenir, I can only guess that the Academy did not know how to react to Mass’s honest approach to its subject matter.  Mass worked because it avoided easy judgments and solutions.  That’s probably the same thing that led to the Academy ignoring both the film and its outstanding cast.

Agree?  Disagree?  Do you have any bigger Oscar snub that you’d like to mention?  Let us know in the comments!

And now, get ready to enjoy the show!  And, if you don’t care about the Oscars, fear not!  My review of The Black Godfather will be posting in an hour.

Miniseries Review: Moon Knight (dir by Mohamed Diab and Aaron Moorhead & Justin Benson)


No sooner had Ryan posted his essay about whether or not comic book companies like Marvel or DC actually need readers anymore then I came over here to type up my review of Moon Knight.

Why is that relevant?  Well, Moon Knight is a 6-episode miniseries based on a character who made his debut in the pages of Marvel comics.  The character has a loyal following of readers but the Disney miniseries has introduced him to a whole new group of people, many of whom have never even held a comic book, let alone read one.  I’m one of those people.  If not for the miniseries, I wouldn’t have the slightest idea who Moon Knight is because, for the most part, I’ve never been a comic book reader.  I would have to imagine that if I was a comic book reader, it would bug the Hell out of me that people who have never read a comic book are now suddenly acting as if they’re experts on all of the various costumed characters who have been published by Marvel and DC over the past few decades.  I can remember how upset I was when everyone suddenly decided that they were an expert on Dario Argento and Italian horror just because they had read some lame article on the remake of SuspiriaNo, I wanted to say, you haven’t done the work!

Unfortunately, that’s the way of the world now.  With the current pop cultural dominance of the MCU and the DCEU, everyone’s a super hero fan regardless of whether or not they’ve ever read a comic book.  And, with the explosion of social media over the past decade, everyone is now in a position to present themselves as being an expert regardless of whether they’re tweeting their own thoughts or just plagiarizing what they’ve read on Wikipedia.  It doesn’t matter whether the topic is politics, television, history, science, religion, or comic books.  Everyone now claims to be an expert and, as the old saying goes, when everyone’s an expert, no one’s an expert.  Again, if that annoys the Hell out of you, I sympathize.

Perhaps you can take some consolation in the fact that, even though I watched all six episode of Moon Knight today, I hardly feel like an expert as far as the character is concerned.  For the most part, I enjoyed Moon Knight but I would be lying if I said that I was always able to follow what was going on.  Oscar Isaac plays Marc Spector, a mercenary who is mortally wounded in Egypt but who is revived by Khonshu (voiced by F. Murray Abraham), the Egyptian God of the Moon, who tasks Spector with protecting humanity from evil or something like that.  Sometimes, however, Spector becomes Steven Grant, a mild-mannered and neurotic Brit who works in a museum gift shop and who is haunted by strange dreams.  When Grant discovers that he’s actually Spector, this leads to him meeting Spector’s wife, Layla (May Calamawy) and also having to battle Arthur Harrow (Ethan Hawke), a fanatical cult leader who is trying to get his hands on ancient scarab that will …. let him do stuff, I guess.  Harrow’s evil, Moon Knight’s good, and I guess that’s all we really need to know.  Moon Knight is basically a typical MCU “let’s all fight over the artifact” story, with the main twist being that all of the Gods are Egyptian instead of Norse and the hero has dissociative identity disorder and might actually very well be a patient at psychiatric hospital.  

With all that in mind, Moon Knight is actually pretty entertaining.  It’s biggest strength, not surprisingly, is Oscar Isaac, who appears to be having a ball playing several different versions of the same character.  When he’s Marc Spector, he gets to play at being a grim and serious action hero.  When he’s Steve Grant, he gets to play a comedic bumbler who gets the chance to prove that he’s stronger and more capable than anyone gave him credit for.  Isaac does a good job with both roles and the show is at its best when it’s just Isaac arguing with himself.  Playing a villain in an MCU production is often a thankless task but Hawke’s brings the right edge of fanaticism to Arthur Harrow and F. Murray Abraham voices Khonshu with the just the right combination of righteous indignation and weary frustration.  The show makes good use of its Egyptian setting and the fourth and fifth episodes are enjoyably surreal as they delve into the corners of Spector’s mind.

Unfortunately, the show’s conclusion leaves a bit to be desired.  After all that build-up, it all pretty much leads to a standard MCU street battle and the possibility of more Moon Knight action in the future.  That said, I enjoyed the show for what it was.  Turn off your mind, relax, and float across the Duat, as the old saying goes.

Here’s The Trailer For Moon Knight


Here’s the trailer Moon Knight!

Oscar Isaac and Ethan Hawke both should have an Oscar by now.  Well, they won’t win any for Moon Knight because it’s a miniseries.  They might get some Emmy love but eventually, everyone wins an Emmy so it’s not as big of a deal.  I mean, I’ve got an Emmy somewhere around here.  It arrived in the mail and I was like, “Cool, I guess I won something.”

My point is, Oscar Issac and Ethan Hawke should both be in a lot of stuff.  Anyway, here’s the trailer:

Alex Skarsgard seeks vengeance in Robert Eggers’ The Northman Trailer!


Robert Eggers is back with another film, and I couldn’t be more excited for it. I’m a little surprised that The Northman isn’t under A24 like his other films. This time, Eggers is working with Focus Features and Universal.

Look at this cast: Alexander Skarsgârd (Godzilla vs. Kong), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Claes Bang (Netflix’s Dracula), Willem Dafoe (Eggers’ The Lighthouse), Anya Taylor-Joy (Eggers’ The Witch), Ethan Hawke (The Black Phone) and Bjork (Dancer in the Dark). Much like Conan, The Northman follows a man hellbent on avenging his father’s death.

The Northman releases in theatres April 22.