Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions for January


Well, here we are. Another awards season is wrapping up. Almost all of the regional critic groups have announced their picks for the best of 2021. The Guilds have spoken. The front runners have emerged. Both Don’t Look Up and Being the Ricardos have weathered bad reviews and become probable Oscar nominees. If nothing else, I’ll have something to complain about for the next three or four months. At the same time, Power of the Dog has emerged as the critical favorite. Belfast seems to be the populist favorite. West Side Story is the big production that has to be nominated, even though no one seems to feel particularly strongly about it one way or the other. Dune is the blockbuster that the Academy is hoping will cause people to tune into the ceremony, especially now that it appears that the Spider-Man Oscar campaign has fizzled. Don’t Look Up is the “Let’s piss off the cons” nominee. Being the Ricardos is this year’s “Wow, our industry really is the best” nominee. Personally, I’m going to view tick, tick….Boom! as being the most likely dark horse to pull off an upset.

So, with all that in mind, here’s my last set of 2021 Oscar predictions.

Looking at the list below, I have to say that we certainly have a good race this year. It’s interesting that, this year, only films that were released between March and the end of December were eligible for the Oscars. 2021 was a very good year for movies! Not only do we have the nominees below but we also had films like The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah, both of which are 2021 films as far as I’m concerned.

(Consider this. If the Oscars had kept the eligibility window the same last year instead of extending it to accommodate films delayed by the pandemic, Anthony Hopkins would probably be the Best Actor front runner right now and the Academy probably would have given Chadwick Boseman a posthumous Best Actor award last April. I also imagine that Jesse Plemons would have a better chance of picking up a supporting actor nomination if the members of the Academy were currently screening both The Power of the Dog and Judas and the Black Messiah at the same time.)

To see how my thinking has evolved,  check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September and October and November and December!

The Oscar nominations will be announced on February 8th. Below are my predictions!

Best Picture

Being The Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power Of The Dog
Tick, Tick….Boom!
West Side Story

Best Director

Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up

Lin-Manuel Miranda for tick, tick …. Boom!

Steven Spielberg for West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve for Dune

Best Actor

Nicolas Cage in Pig

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield in tick, tick….Boom!

Will Smith in King Richard

Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter

Jennifer Hudson in Respect

Nicole Kidman in Being the Riacardos

Kristen Stewart in Spencer

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizzia

Ciaran Hinds in Belfast

Troy Kostur in CODA

Jared Leto in House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe in Belfast

Ariana DeBose in West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard

Ruth Negga in Passing

Gunfire (1950, directed by William Berke)


Years after the death of his brother Jesse, Frank James (Don “Red” Barry) has settled down in Colorado and is living a peaceful life as a rancher.  He is even friends with the town’s sheriff, John Kelly (Robert Lowery).  Unfortunately, it’s not always so easy to escape the past, especially when you are one of the few surviving members of one of the Old West’s most notorious gangs.  A former member of the James Gang, Mundy (Claude Stroud), shows up at Frank’s cabin and tries to talk Frank into joining up with him, the Ford brothers (Gaylord Pendleton and Roger Anderson), and their new leader, Bat Fenton (Don “Red” Barry, playing a second role).  When Frank refuses and makes clear that he still wants revenge on the Ford brothers for the murder of Jesse James, the gang goes on a crime spree.  Because he and Fenton look exactly alike, the entire town thinks that Frank is responsible.  Can Frank clear his name and avenge the death of his brother?

There were a lot of poverty row B-westerns produced in the early 1950s and most of them are pretty bad.  However, occasionally you come across a diamond in the rough and that’s the case with Gunfire.  Gunfire tells an interesting story, it has exciting gunfights, and it also features not one but two good performances from Don “Red” Barry!  Barry is equally convincing as both the good Frank and the bad Fenton and the movie uses the double plot as a way to illustrate how difficult it is to escape the sins of the past.  Frank has been “born again” but every time he sees Fenton, he sees not only who he used to be but also who many will always believe him to be.  Gunfire is a good western that shows that you don’t need a huge budget to tell an engaging story.

I Watched The 5th Quarter (2010, dir. by Rick Bieber)


The 5th Quarter is the story of the Abbate Brothers.  Luke Abbate (Stefan Guy) is a high school football star who has his entire life ahead of him.  Jon Abbate (Ryan Merriman) is a student at Wake Forest University and is a linebacker on their football team.  When Luke is killed in a horrific car accident, Jon considers dropping out of football but instead, with his parent’s encouragement, he decides to keep playing and to dedicate the season to the memory of his little brother.  Wearing his Luke’s No. 5 jersey, Jon inspires both the team and the fans.

Sometimes you really want to like something but you just can’t.  That’s the way that I felt about The 5th Quarter.  The movie is based on a true story and its heart is in the right place but it’s just too predictable too really work.  It needed more drama and at least a little suspense about whether or not Wake Forest would be able to win all of the games that they won.  I did think that Aidan Quinn and Andie MacDowell (who I thought was Jennifer Garner for most of the movie) were pretty good as Luke and Jon’s parents.  The movie needed more scenes like the one where Andie MacDowell got mad at the woman who asked her how she was doing right after she had buried her youngest son.  Otherwise, The 5th Quarter meant well but it was just too predictable.

Lisa Marie’s 10 Worst Films of 2021


Also be sure to check out my picks for 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010!

10. Paradise Cove (dir by Martin Guigi)
9. Eternals (dir by Chloe Zhao)
8. Spiral: From the Book of Saw (dir by Darren Lynn Bousman)
7. Space Jam: A New Legacy (dir by Malcolm D. Lee)
6. Falling (dir by Viggo Mortensen)
5. Deadly Illusions (dir by Anna Eizabeth James)
4. Being the Ricardos (dir by Aaron Sorkin)
3. Don’t Look Up (dir by Adam McKay)
2. After We Fell (dir by Castille Landon)
1. Malcolm & Marie (dir by Visionary Sam Levinson)

Sierra Stranger (1957, directed by Lee Sholem)


Sierra Stranger starts with a familiar western situation.  Jess Collins (Howard Duff), a penniless but honorable drifter, comes across two men tying another man to the back of a horse.  The two men claim that Sonny Grover (Ed Kemmer) is an outlaw and a claim jumper and not to be trusted. Sonny says that he’s innocent and the two men are actually the claim jumpers.  Jess does what many a western hero has done.  He sides with the underdog and saves Sonny.  To thank him, Sonny gives Jess a part of his claim.

Jess rides into the nearby town to claim his new property.  He meets and befriends Sonny’s half-brother, Bert (Dick Foran).  He also meets and falls in love with Bert’s fiancée, Meg (Gloria McGeehee).  However, soon after arriving, Jess discovers that he made a mistake and he saved the wrong man.  Sonny really is the dangerous outlaw that everyone says he is.  After Sonny robs a stagecoach and murders the driver, Jess risks his new friendship with Bert by trying to bring Sonny to justice.

Howard Duff appeared in his share of B-westerns in the 50s.  He was always a solid hero, even if he didn’t really have the screen presence of some of the other stars of the genre.  He’s pretty good in Sierra Stranger and the fact that, for once, the town is right while the drifter is wrong is an interesting twist on an otherwise standard story.  This is the rare western where the hero makes a pretty big mistake and then has to spend the rest of the movie trying to make up for it.  If you’re not a western fan, this is not the type of B-movie that’s going to change your mind.  But, for those who do like the genre, it’s an interesting twist on what we’ve been led to naturally expect.

The TSL’s Grindhouse: Bolero (dir by John Derek)


The 1984 film, Bolero, tells the story of  Ayre “Mac” MacGillvary (Bo Derek) and her best friend, Catalina (Anna Obregon).  They’re young, they’re rich, they’ve just graduated from college, and, despite the fact that they both appears to be in their early 40s, they’re determined to lose their virginities to the most perfect lovers that they can find.

Because the film is taking place in the 1920, Mac and Catalina first travel to the Middle East in hope of finding a Rudolph Valentino-style sheik.  Accompanying them is Mac’s chauffeur and protector, Cotton (a clearly embarrassed George Kennedy).  Though Mac does manage to find a sheik (played by Greg Benson), her efforts to lose her virginity to him prove to be a failure.  Though the Sheik is willing, he indulges a bit too much with his hookah and ends up passing out right before the consummating the act.

Well, if a sheik can’t do it, how about a bullfighter?  Mac and Catalina leave the Middle East for Spain and it’s there that Mac catches the eyes of Angel (Andrea Occhipinti), a celebrated bullfighter.  Mac decides that Angel will be the one to take her virginity but it turns out that, once again, nothing as is easy as it should be.  It turns out that Angel already has a lover and he’s been with her since she was a teenager.  And a 14 year-old Gypsy named Paloma (played by Olivia d’Abo) has already decided that she is going to be Angel’s next lover, which is incredibly icky even before the film makes it even ickier,  

While Mac is trying to seduce Angel, Catalina is trying to seduce a Scottish attorney named Robert Stewart (Ian Cochrane).  “What do you wear under your skirt?” Catalina asks.  “It’s a kilt!” Stewart yells because he’s Scottish.  Anyway, Catalina eventually does get an answer to her question so yay Catalina!

As for Mac, she does eventually manage to win Angel’s attention but then …. OUCH!  Angel gets gored by a bull and yes, he gets wounded exactly where you think that he gets wounded.  Suddenly, Angel can no longer get it up but fear not.  “We’re going to make that thing work,” Mac says, before she then takes up bullfighting herself.  It all eventually leads to a scene that makes heavy use of dry ice and a neon light that misspells the word ecstasy. 

Bolero is one of those sex-obsessed films that tries so hard to be erotic that it actually goes in the opposite direction and becomes so firmly anti-erotic that one gets the feeling it could be used as a torture device in a George Orwell novel.  “The Anti-Sex League sentences you to watch Bolero!”  A huge part of the problem is that, even though everyone in the film is certainly attractive, there’s still next to no chemistry between Bo Derek and any of her potential lovers.  The film was directed by Bo’s then-husband, John Derek and, somewhat perversely, John continually films her in the least flattering ways possible.  John also tries to introduce some humor into the film — at one point, it turns into a silent film, complete with title cards — but it all falls flat.  Finally, the gored bullfighter is played by a very handsome Italian actor named Andrea Occhipinti who I immediately recognized as being the same actor who played the killer in Lucio Fulci’s The New York Ripper.  Though it was a bit unfair to Occhipinti (whose likable blandness was exactly what made him such a subversive choice to play the killer in Fulci’s film), I was worried every moment that Mac was left alone with him.  (Occhipinti is now one of Italy’s most respected film producers.) 

Produced by Cannon Films, Bolero was apparently a huge flop when it was released.  Bolero was considered to be so bad that it led to MGM announcing that they would no longer help to distribute any other Cannon Films.  I can’t really blame MGM.  Even when viewed decades later, Bolero is a dull romp that’s fit only for the Anti-Sex League.

A Blast From The Past: Censorship: A Question of Judgment


The year is 1963 and Nancy is the editor of the high school newspaper.  She’s upset that so many students are settling their disagreements through fighting.  She wants to run a story about the fights and she wants to publish the pictures of the two students who were involved in the latest brawl.  When her faculty advisor points out that a high school newspaper is supposed to be positive and that publishing the pictures of the combatants would be an invasion of their privacy, Nancy argues that she has a responsibility as a journalist….

NANCY, IT’S A HIGH SCHOOL NEWSPAPER!  YOU’RE NOT A JOURNALIST!

Anyway …. what would you do?

This film is from 1963 and it seems to be a bit biased in Nancy’s favor.  Of course, Nancy should publicly shame any student caught fighting!  Myself, I have to disagree.  I’m reminded of the old but very true saying: “No one likes a snitch.”  Add to that, judging from the opening shots of this film, the entire school witnessed the fight so it’s not like Nancy is going to be telling her readership something that they didn’t already witness firsthand.  Seriously, what is Nancy’s problem?

I’m against censorship but I’m also against being a snitch.  Honestly, I think Nancy has gone a little power mad.

However, if you want to consider for this issue for yourself, here, from 1963, is Censorship: A Question of Judgment:

Ten Wanted Men (1955, directed by Bruce Humberstone)


Arizona rancher Wick Campbell (Richard Boone) is angered when he discovers that one of his servants, Maria (Donna Martell), would rather marry Howie Stewart (Skip Homeier) than be with Wick.  Wick has had a long rivalry with Howie and his older brothers, John (Randolph Scott) and Adam (Lester Matthews).  Determined to get rid of the Stewarts and to have Maria for himself, Wick hires notorious gunfighter Frank Scavo (Leo Gordon) to take over the town and defeat the Stewarts, one way or another.

Ten Wanted Men (the title refers to Scavo’s gang) is an above average Randolph Scott western.  Scott was one of the best of the western heroes because he always seemed so authentic whenever he rode a horse, shot a gun, or even just put on a cowboy hat.  Scott was also an underrated actor and, as he got older, he became Hollywood’s go-to choice whenever they needed a strong, silent lead for a western.  That’s the role that he plays in Ten Wanted Men, as the patriarch of the Stewart family.  He’s instinctively fair but he will do whatever has to be done to protect his brothers.

Wick Campbell is John Stewart’s opposite, an oily rancher who hires other men to bully his enemies and who abuses his servant in a way that the Stewarts never would consider.  Though Richard Boone became best known for playing the hero on Have Gun–Will Travel, Wick is the type of cowardly villain who everyone will be happy to see get exactly what he deserves.  As played by Leo Gordon, Frank Scavo is a brutish outlaw and, unlike Wick, he doesn’t pretend to be anything else.

Ten Wanted Men is a good western.  The plot may not be surprising but the gunfights are exciting and Randolph Scott is as ideal a hero as always.  Fans of the genre will enjoy it.

Finally, Here Are The 2021 Nominations of the Costume Designers Guild!


I have one last set of guild nominations to share with you today.  Here are the 2021 nominations of the Costume Designers Guild!

Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film
Dune – Jacqueline West & Robert Morgan
The Green Knight – Malgosia Turzanska
The Matrix Resurrections – Lindsay Pugh
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Kym Barrett
Spider-Man: No Way Home – Sanja M. Hays
The Suicide Squad – Judianna Makovsky

Excellence in Contemporary Film
Coming 2 America – Ruth E. Carter
Don’t Look Up – Susan Matheson
In The Heights – Mitchell Travers
No Time to Die – Suttirat Anne Larlarb
Zola – Derica Cole Washington

Excellence in Period Film
Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini & Jacqueline Durran
House of Gucci – Janty Yates
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

Here Are The 2021 Producers Guild Nominations!


The Producers Guild nominations is one of the biggest of the awards season precursors.  The fact that neither Spider-Man: No Way Home nor No Way To Die were mentioned here probably means neither is going to pull off a surprise best picture nomination.  So, it looks like Dune will get the blockbuster slot this year.

Both Being the Ricardos and Don’t Look Up were nominated.  Don’t even get me started.

The Award for Outstanding Producer of a Feature Theatrical Motion Picture
Being The Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power Of The Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!
West Side Story

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya And The Last Dragon
Sing 2
 
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures
The PGA previously announced the nominations in this category on December 10th, 2021.
 
Ascension
The First Wave
Flee
In The Same Breath
The Rescue
Simple As Water
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing With Fire