4 Shots From 4 Films is just what it says it is, 4 shots from 4 of our favorite films. As opposed to the reviews and recaps that we usually post, 4 Shots From 4 Films is all about letting the visuals do the talking.
In March, CODA won the Oscar for Best Picture.
By May, I think most people had forgotten about it.
I point this out not to be snarky about CODA (which, for the most part, I found to be a well-made and sweet-natured movie) but to just point out that occasionally, the Oscar for Best Picture Of The Year does not go to the nominee that’s necessarily going to be remembered and watched by future generations. CODA’s victory is not a travesty, regardless of what some members of Film Twitter insisted. This isn’t like when Green Book won. It’s just that CODA seems to be destined to be remembered in much the same way that we remember Argo and Spotlight, i.e. a well-made and well-acted film that gets the job done but don’t necessarily stick around in your mind for long after you watch it.
In fact, looking back at all of the 2021 Best Picture nominees, the one that has really stuck with me is Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley.
Nightmare Alley tells the story of Stan Carlisle (Bradley Cooper), a drifter who, in 1939, gets a job with a carnival. Stan is running from his past. He’s haunted by visions and dreams of a dying old man and a burning farm house. When we first meet him, he avoids alcohol which is perhaps a good thing as getting drunk at the carnival just makes someone easier to exploit and, ultimately, the carnival is all about exploitation. The carnival’s owner, Clem (Willem DaFoe), specializes in tricking alcoholics into becoming opium-addicted “geeks,” who bite the heads off of chickens for gawking country audiences.
It’s not a glamorous life but it’s one that allows Stan to hide from his past. He comes under the tutelage of Madame Zeena (Toni Collette) and her husband, Pete (David Straithairn). They teach him how to give “cold readings,” and Stan proves to be an eager student. Pete tells Stan to never pretend to be able to speak to the dead and, from the minute that Pete says it, we can tell that Stan is already thinking about how much money he could make by doing just that. Stan also appears to fall in love with Molly (Rooney Mara), a performer whose act involves a fake electric chair. When Stan eventually abandons the carnival, Molly goes with him. When Stan finds success as a fake medium, Molly is his assistant.
Stan becomes quite a success in Buffalo, trading in his shabby clothes and his unshaven appearance for a tuxedo and suave mustache. With success comes arrogance and Stan soon ignore what Pete told him about pretending to be able to speak to the dead. When Stan meets a psychologist named Dr. Lillian Rith (Cate Blanchett), he gets involved in a plot to con a judge who is still mourning for his deceased son. It also leads to Stan meeting a corrupt and murderous businessman (Richard Jenkins). Ignoring Pete’s lesson sets off a chain of events that leads Stan right back to where he started.
There’s something wonderfully subversive about taking Bradley Cooper, a legitimate movie star who is probably one of the most personable and likable actors working today, and casting him as such a sleazy character. This isn’t a case, as in American Hustle or even The Hangover movies, where Cooper is playing a goof who gets in over his head. Instead, Stan is someone who uses his eager manner and his natural charm to cover up the fact that he’s hollow on the inside. Watching the film, you’re never quite sure as to whether or not Stan truly cares about any of the people who come into his life. Does he love Molly or is he just using her? Does he care about his friends from the carnival or is he just manipulating them into acting as a shield to keep out his former life? When he goes against Pete’s lessons about pretending to speak to the dead, is he motivated by greed or arrogance? Or does he truly want to believe that he’s somehow become the all-powerful psychic that he pretends to be? Stan becomes a success because he knows how to con everyone but eventually, he meets someone who is even emptier than he is. Ultimately, Stan cons himself. He tricks himself into believing that he’s more clever than he actually is and he ends up facing the fate that he secretly always knew was waiting for him. Cooper gives an outstanding performance as Stan. Both he and del Toro cleverly play with what audiences expect when they see Bradley Cooper onscreen. In the end, the film suggests that not even charm can ward off karma.
Nightmare Alley is work of what Lucio Fulci called “pure cinema,” one in which the imagery and the emotions generated by that imagery is even more important than the story itself. The sets, whether it’s the carnival or Dr. Ritter’s office or the Buffalo ballroom where Stan cons the wealthy, are large and ornate. The cinematography is gorgeous. The supporting performances are arch and witty. Cate Blanchett’s and Rooney Mara’s costumes are to die for. Nearly every shot feels as if it could have been lifted from a particularly vivid dream. Guillermo del Toro’s love of cinema is evident in every frame of Nightmare Alley. It’s a film that celebrates the grandeur and the power of imagination and also warns about the destructive power of hubris. Despite the fact that del Toro has gone on the record saying that there’s nothing supernatural about Nightmare Alley, it’s still a wonderful film for the Halloween season. The costumes are beautiful and the final third of the movie plays like an homage to the classic German expressionistic horror films, with Blanchett playing her role as a mix of Dr. Caligari and a classic noir feeme fatale. Nightmare Alley is a big, flamboyant, and unforgettable work of pure cinema and, looking back, it’s my favorite film of 2021.
It’s a film that stays with you.
Well, since the big show is tomorrow, I guess it’s time for me to try to predict what I think will win. Up until four weeks ago, I would thought Power of the Dog would be the obvious front runner but CODA seems to be the film that people are responding too. The same is true of Penelope Cruz, who went from being an also-ran to the new front runner in just a matter of days.
In short, this Oscar race is up in the air. Almost anything could happen. It should be exciting, though I think most people will be tuning in not to see who wins but to see how bad the show is.
Anyway, here are my predictions! We’ll see how right I am (or how wrong I am) tomorrow night!
Best Picture — CODA
Best Director — Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Actor — Will Smith, King Richard
Best Actress — Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Supporting Actor — Troy Kostur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress — Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay — The Worst Person In The World
Best Adapted Screenplay — CODA
Best Animated Feature Film — Encanto
Best International Film — Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature — Attica
Best Documentary Short Subject — Audible
Best Live Action Short Film — The Long Goodbye
Best Animated Short Film — Affairs of the Art
Best Original Score — Dune
Best Original Song — Dos Origuitas from Encanto
Best Sound — West Side Story
Best Production Design — Dune
Best Cinematography — The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design — Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Film Editing — Don’t Look Up
Best Visual Effects — Spider-Man: No Way Home
With the Oscar nominations due to be announced tomorrow, now is the time that the Shattered Lens indulges in a little something called, “What if Lisa Marie had all the power.” Listed below are my personal Oscar nominations. Please note that these are not the films that I necessarily think will be nominated. The fact of the matter is that the many of them will not be. Instead, these are the films that would be nominated if I was solely responsible for deciding the nominees this year. Winners are listed in bold.
I should also point out that, unlike the Academy (which is using a March to December, 2021 eligibility window), I am using a January to December 2021 eligibility window. So, you may see a few nominees below that were technically nominated for the 2020 Oscars, despite the fact that the films themselves were not really given a theatrical release until the the first few months of 2021. The Father is probably the most obvious example of this.
It should also go without saying that I’ve only nominated films that I’ve actually seen. So, if you’re wondering why a certain film wasn’t nominated, it’s always possible that may have not gotten the opportunity to see it yet. I have a feeling that The Souvenir Part II and Cyrano would have potentially shown up in the list of nominee below if either one of those films was currently available in my part of the world. Of course, it’s also possible that I didn’t feel that a certain film was worthy of a nomination, despite what the critics may see. In the end, my best advice is not to worry too much about it. I’m not an Academy voter so ultimately, this is all for fun and that’s the spirit in which it should be taken.
You’ll also note that I’ve added four categories, all of which I believe the Academy should adopt — Best Voice-Over Performance, Best Casting, Best Stunt Work, and Best Overall Use Of Music In A Film.
Click on the links to see my nominations for 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010!)
And now, without further ado:
Best Picure
Belfast
CODA
The French Dispatch
The Last Duel
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Shiva Baby
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth
Fran Kanz for Mass
Emma Seligman for Shiva Baby
Best Actor
Nicolas Cage in Pig
Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Anthony Hopins in The Father
Udo Kier in Swan Song
Denzel Washington in Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Jodie Comer in The Last Duel
Alana Haim in Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones in CODA
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth
Rachel Sennott in Shiva Baby
Tessa Thompson in Passing
Best Supporting Actor
Reed Birney in Mass
Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan in Belfast
Jason Isaacs in Mass
Troy Kostur in CODA
Chaske Spencer in Wild Indian
Best Supporting Actress
Caririona Balfe in Belfast
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Kathryn Hunter in The Tragedy of Macbeth
Ruth Negga in Passing
Martha Plimpton in Mass
Best Voice Over Performance
Olivia Colman in Ron Gone Wrong
Jack Dylan Grazer in Ron Gone Wrong
Micahel Imperioli in The Many Saints of Newark
Abbi Jacobson In The Mitchells vs The Machines
Danny McBride in The Mitchells vs The Machines
Sylvester Stallone in The Suicide Squad
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
CODA
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Pig
Shiva Baby
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
The French Dispatch
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Passing
The Power of the Dog
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs The Machines
Ron Gone Wrong
Summit of the Gods
Best Documentary Feature Film
Final Account
Flee
Boris Karloff: The Man Behind The Monster
Summer of Soul
Val
The Velvet Underground
Best International Feature Film
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
Flee
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Prayers For The Stolen
Summit of the Gods
Best Original Score
Assault on VA-33
Belfast
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
Reminiscence
Shiva Baby
Best Original Song
“So May We Start” from Annette
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Surface Pressure” from Encanto
“On My Way” From The Mitchells vs The Machines
“Remain” from Old
“Fire In The Sky” from Shang-Chi and The Legend of the Gold Rings
Best Overall Use Of Music
Annette
CODA
Encanto
Licorice Pizza
Summer of Soul
Tick …. Tick …. Boom!
Best Sound Editing
Black Widow
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
A Quiet Place Part II
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the 10 Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Sound Mixing
Belfast
CODA
Dune
In The Heights
Tick …. Tick …. Boom!
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Production Design
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Last Duel
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Casting
Belfast
CODA
East of the Mountains
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Shiva Baby
Best Cinematography
Belfast
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Passing
The Power of the Dog
Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Costume Design
Dune
The Green Knight
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Best Film Editing
Belfat
The Father
The Last Duel
Licorice Pizza
Tragedy of Macbeth
Shiva Baby
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
Nightmare Alley
The Suicide Squad
Best Stuntwork
Assault on VA-33
Black Widow
Dune
The Harder They Fall
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Best Visual Effects
A Quiet Place Part II
Annette
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
List of Nominees By Number of Nominations
10 Nominations — Belfast
9 Nominations — Licorice Pizza
8 Nominations — CODA, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7 Nominations — Dune, Mass, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby
6 Nominations — The French Dispatch, The Last Duel
5 Nominations — Passing, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4 Nominations — The Mitchells vs The Machines
3 Nominations — Annette, Encanto, The Father, Flee, The Green Knight, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Spider-Man: No Direction Home, The Suicide Squad
2 Nominations — A Quiet Place Part II, Assault on VA-33, Black Widow, Godzilla vs Kong, Pig, Summer of Soul, Summit of the Gods, tick….tick….BOOM!
1 Nomination — Another Round, Dear Comrades!, East of the Mountains, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Final Account, Boris Karloff: The Man Behind the Monster, The Harder They Fall, In The Heights, Luca, The Many Saints of Newark, No Time To Die, Old, Prayers For The Stolen, Quo Vadis Aida?, Reminiscence, Swan Song, Val, The Velvet Underground, Wild Indian
List of Films By Number of Oscars Won:
3 Oscars — Licorice Pizza
2 Oscars — CODA, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
1 Oscar — Belfast, Dear Comrades!, Encanto, The Father, The French Dispatch, The Green Knight, The Many Saints of Newark, Mass, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Shiva Baby, Summit of the Gods, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Val, Wild Indian
Without further ado, here is the list that we’ve all been waiting for! Here are my picks for the 26 best films of 2021! Why 26? Because Lisa doesn’t do odd numbers!
(Also, be sure to check out my picks for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020! Wow, I’ve been doing this for a while!)
1. Nightmare Alley
2. Licorice Pizza
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Mass
5. Shiva Baby
6. Belfast
7. CODA
8. The Last Duel
9. The Power of the Dog
10. The French Dispatch
11. The Father
12. West Side Story
13. Pig
14. Dear Comrades
15. Another Round
16. Dune
17. Spider-Man: No Way Home
18. Val
19. Wild Indian
20. Romeo and Juliet
21. East of the Mountains
22. Summit of the Gods
23. A Quiet Place Part II
24. Passing
25. The Lost Daughter
26. Swan Song
Lisa Marie’s 2021 In Review:
The Washington D.C. Area Film Critics have announced their nominees for the best of 2021! The winners will be announced tomorrow so that means you have exactly one day to see all the nominees. GET TO IT!
Best Film
Belfast
The Green Knight
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick…BOOM!
West Side Story
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
David Lowery – The Green Knight
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Best Actor
Nicolas Cage – Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Tessa Thompson – Passing
Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Dornan – Belfast
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Caitríona Balfe – Belfast
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Ann Dowd – Mass
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Best Acting Ensemble
Belfast
The French Dispatch
The Harder They Fall
Mass
The Power of the Dog
Best Youth Performance
Jude Hill – Belfast
Emilia Jones – CODA
Woody Norman – C’mon, C’mon
Saniyya Sidney – King Richard
Rachel Zegler – West Side Story
Best Voice Performance
Awkwafina – Raya and the Last Dragon
Stephanie Beatriz – Encanto
Abbi Jacobson – The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Kelly Marie Tran – Raya and the Last Dragon
Jacob Tremblay – Luca
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Mike Mills – C’mon, C’mon
Zach Baylin – King Richard
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Fran Kranz – Mass
Best Adapted Screenplay
Siân Heder – CODA
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth – Dune
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Steven Levenson – tick, tick…BOOM!
Tony Kushner – West Side Story
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Documentary
The First Wave
Flee
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Val
Best International/Foreign Language Film
Drive My Car
A Hero
Lamb
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Best Production Design
Jim Clay, Production Designer; Claire Nia Richards, Set Decorator – Belfast
Patrice Vermette, Production Designer; Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Set Decorators – Dune
Adam Stockhausen, Production Designer; Rena DeAngelo, Set Decorator – The French Dispatch
Tamara Deverell, Production Designer; Shane Vieau, Set Decorator – Nightmare Alley
Adam Stockhausen, Production Designer; Rena DeAngelo, Set Decorator – West Side Story
Best Cinematography
Haris Zambarloukos – Belfast
Greig Fraser – Dune
Andrew Droz Palermo – The Green Knight
Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Editing
Úna Ní Dhonghaíle – Belfast
Joe Walker – Dune
Andrew Weisblum – The French Dispatch
Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog
Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum – tick, tick…BOOM!
Best Original Score
Bryce Dessner & Aaron Dessner – Cyrano
Hans Zimmer – Dune
Alexandre Desplat – The French Dispatch
Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog
Jonny Greenwood – Spencer
The National Board of Review just announced their picks for the best of 2021 and, while many thought they might go with West Side Story or The Power of the Dog, the NBR instead announced that their pick for Best Picture was Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza!
In fact, Power of the Dog went curiously unmentioned by the National Board of Review. I wouldn’t read too much into that, though. While the NBR is one of the more prominent of the precursors, they’re also not one of the most reliable. If the Guilds ignore a film that was considered to be contender, that’s when you might want to start changing your predictions.
Anyway, here are the NBR winners:
Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST
Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA
Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG
Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO
Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO
Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL
Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE
Top Films (in alphabetical order)
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Red Rocket
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)
Benedetta
Lamb
Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
Ascension
Attica
Flee
The Rescue
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
The Card Counter
C’mon C’mon
CODA
The Green Knight
Holler
Jockey
Old Henry
Pig
Shiva Baby
The Souvenir Part II
It’s time for my monthly Oscar predictions! Awards Season is going to begin in just another two days and the Oscar picture has become a lot more clearer.
Last month, I was ready to write off West Side Story as a contender. However, following both the film’s recent screening and the death of Stephen Sondheim, it’s now once again very much a contender. If nothing else, Rita Moreno seems like the clear front runner for Supporting Actress. This would be her first nomination since she won an Oscar for appearing in the original West Side Story. Who can resist that narrative?
I’ve also added Licorice Pizza back to my list of nominees. At first, I thought it sounded too slight to be a contender but the enthusiasm that I’m seeing for the film would seem to indicate that I was incorrect.
As always, keep in mind that I don’t claim to be an expert. The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that. These are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September and October!
Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Jude Hill in Belfast
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Actress
Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson in Respect
Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Rachel Zegler in West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck in The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jared Leto in House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis in King Richard
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Rita Moreno in West Side Story
It’s time to take a little break from horror so that I may once against do my list of my monthly Oscar predictions! I guess some people would consider predicting the Oscars to be a scary thing. Personally, I have fun doing it, even if my predictions often seem to be for naught. That said, I did manage to predict that Thomas Vinterberg would be nominated for Best Director last year so take that, haters.
Probably the biggest development this month is that I’ve lost all faith in Spielberg’s West Side Story. It’s just not getting the type of hype that I would expect from a Spielberg Oscar movie. In fact, it seems like everyone involved is in kind of a hurry to move on. So, for now, I’m dropping it from my predictions. While West Side Story goes, Dune has definitely established itself as a probable nominee. I think the only problem that Dune will have is the possibility of people saying, “We’ll just nominate the sequel instead.”
I’ve also added C’mon C’mon and Passing to my list of Best Picture nominees. This is almost totally due to their popularity with the Gothams. If the other critics groups don’t duplicate the love, they’ll probably get dropped from my predictions come January.
As always, keep in mind that I don’t claim to be an expert. The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that. These are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August and September!
Best Picture
Belfast
C’mon C’mon
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
Passing
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter
Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Jude Hill in Belfast
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Lives
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley
Jamie Dornan in Belfast
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jason Isaacs in Mass
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
Dame Judi Dench in Belfast
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Well, it’s the time of the month again.
No, not that time! That time ended two days ago. I’m talking about the fact that it’s time for me to once again share my monthly Oscar predictions. Thanks to the festival circuit, we’ve finally gotten some advance word on the big Oscar contenders that will be coming out over the next few months.
Belfast, as of right now, sounds like the prohibitive favorite to win it all. At first, it seemed like the reaction to The Power of the Dog was a bit mixed but later reactions were almost overwhelmingly positive. It sounds like the type of film that will be nominated even if it won’t necessarily win. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter is coming on strong, as is Spencer. For me, the biggest surprise has been the amount of acclaim that Dune has been getting. I was a bit dismissive of its Oscar chances earlier this year but now it definitely sounds like it will be in the hunt.
West Side Story has been seen by no one but I continue to list it because it’s a Spielberg film and, with all the musicals that are being released this year and which have subsequently struggled with either critics or audiences or both, it still seems the most likely to pick up a nomination. I’m a little bit skeptical on whether or not Nightmare Alley is going to be an “Oscar picture” but the trailer was nice to look at so I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. House of Gucci is three hours long and full of stars so it’s either going to be an Oscar nominee or a complete bomb.
You may notice a lack of predicted nominations for Licorice Pizza. Licorice Pizza is a film that I fully expect to love but the trailer definitely feels a bit more like Inherent Vice than The Phantom Thread. I still think that the actors could get nominated but the rumor right now is that Bradley Cooper’s role is actually very small. That’s why I no longer have him listed as a supporting actor nominee.
Again, keep in mind that I’m not an expert. The picture is a bit clearer but I don’t claim to have any inside information or anything like that. These are just my guesses, for better or worse. To see how my thinking has evolved, check out my predictions for March and April and May and June and July and August!
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Dune
House of Gucci
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh for Belfast
Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg for West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve for Dune
Best Actor
Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage in Cyrano
Will Smith in King Richard
Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz in Parallel Lives
Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of MacBeth
Kristen Stewart in Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
David Alvarez in West Side Story
Willem DaFoe in Nightmare Alley
Ciaran Hinds in Belfast
Jason Isaac in Mass
Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter
Dame Judi Dench in Belfast
Ann Dowd in Mass
Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog
Marlee Matlin in CODA
Through the Shattered Lens 