Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For September


It’s that time of the month again!

It’s time for me to share my latest round of Oscar predictions.  Thanks to the summer festival season, the Oscar race is starting to become a bit clearer.  That said, there really don’t seem to be any overwhelming favorites right now.  There are contenders but there are no front runners.  So, I imagine we’ll see some surprise contenders emerge as the precursor season approaches.

You’ll notice that, unlike a lot of Oscar bloggers, I don’t have Gladiator II amongst my predictions.  That’s based on the fact that, every year, there’s a new Ridley Scott film that everyone predicts will be a contender and, with the exception of The Martian, it never happens.  The Academy just does not seem to have the burning desire to honor Ridley Scott that a lot of film bloggers do.  As well,  I’m just not convinced that a sequel starring an actor who has yet to prove he can shoulder the weight of a blockbuster is going to be the film that’s going to win Ridley Scott a Best Director statuette.  Remember that a few years ago, those same Oscar bloggers were insisting that Martin Scorsese’s Silence was going to be not only a contender but also the winner up until the end of November.

(For that matter, let’s not forget that Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was expected to be a winner as opposed to an also-ran.  Fact of the matter is that, as much as I hate to resort to that overused quote from William Goldman, no one knows anything.)

Do I really think that Pamela Anderson is going to receive a Best Actress nomination?  She’s receiving a lot of acclaim for her role in The Showgirl but, at the same time, she’s Pamela Anderson.  There’s maybe a 2% chance that she’ll get nominated but I always like to throw in a few candidates who go against the conventional wisdom.  So — what the Hell?  Why not?  Pamela Anderson for Best Actress!

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, and August!

Best Picture

Anora

The Apprentice

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Dune Part Two

Emilia Perez

Maria

The Piano Lesson

Saturday Night

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Jason Reitman for Saturday Night

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore in The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For August!


  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!  And June as wellAnd July!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Maria

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

The Substance

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Pablo Larrain for Maria

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!  And June as well!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

The Fire Inside

Gladiator II

Inside Out 2

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June


This has not been an easy month and I’ve fallen behind in my movie-watching and also my news-reading.  So, take the predictions below with many grains of salt.  That said, it is the end of the month and it’s time for my monthly Oscar predictions!

What will happen when the nominations are announced in 2025?  Who knows?  For now, let’s just have fun guessing.  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

The Fire Inside

Gladiator II

Inside Out 2

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Here Are The Winners Of The 2024 Cannes Film Festival


Palme d’Or: Anora, Sean Baker

Grand Prix: “All We Imagine as Light”

Director: Miguel Gomes, “Grand Tour”

Actor: Jesse Plemons, “Kinds of Kindness.”

Best Actresses: Selena Gomez, Karla Sofia Gascon, Zoe Saldana “Emilia Pérez”

Jury Prize: “Emilia Pérez”

Special Award (Prix Spécial): Mohammad Rasoulof, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

Screenplay: Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

OTHER PRIZES

Camera d’Or: “Armand,” Halfdan Ullman Tondel

Camera d’Or Special Mention: “Mongrel,” Chiang Wei Liang, You Qiao Yin

Short Film Palme d’Or: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent,” Nebojša Slijepčević

Short Film Special Mention: “Bad for a Moment,” Daniel Soares

Golden Eye Documentary Prize: “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found” and “The Brink of Dreams”

Queer Palm: “Three Kilometers to the End of the World”

Palme Dog: Kodi, “Palm Dog”

FIPRESCI Award (Competition): “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Mohammad Rasoulof

FIPRESCI Award (Un Certain Regard): “The Story of Souleymane,” Boris Lojkine

FIPRESCI Award (Parallel Sections): “Desert of Namibia,” Yoko Yamanaka

UN CERTAIN REGARD

Un Certain Regard Award: “Black Dog,” Guan Hu

Jury Prize: “The Story of Souleymane,” Boris Lojkine

Best Director Prize: (ex aequo) “The Damned,” Roberto Minervini; “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni

Performance Awards: “The Shameless,” Anasuya Sengupta; “The Story of Souleymane,” Abou Sangare

Youth Prize: “Holy Cow! (Vingt Dieux),” Louise Courvoisier

Special Mention: “Norah,” Tawfik Alzaidi

DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT

Europa Cinemas Label: “The Other Way Around,” Jonás Trueba

Society of Dramatic Authors and Composers Prize: “This Life of Mine,” Sophie Fillières

Audience Choice Award: “Universal Language,” Matthew Rankin

CRITICS’ WEEK

Grand Prize: “Simon of the Mountain,” Federico Luis

French Touch Prize: “Blue Sun Palace,” Constance Tsang

GAN Foundation Award for Distribution: Jour2Fête, “Julie Keeps Quiet”

Louis Roederer Foundation Rising Star Award: Ricardo Teodoro, “Baby”

Leitz Cine Discovery Prize (short film): “Guil Sela,” Montsouris Park

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re nearly halfway through the year and so far, we have two films that seem like they might still be in the Oscar conversation at the end of the year, Dune 2 and Civil War.  With the Cannes Film Festival coming up this month, we should soon have some more contenders to consider.

My predictions below are a bit heavy on sequels.  In fact, if the predictions below came true, it would a record year for sequels at the Oscars.  Of course, it’s early and it’s totally probable that the majority of the films listed below will not be nominated.  Right now, it’s pretty much a guessing game.  The production delays caused by last year’s strikes have opened the door for a lot of sequels to receive consideration that they might not receive in other years.

What will happen when the nominations are announced in 2025?  Who knows?  For now, let’s just have fun guessing.  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking here.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Civil War

Dune, Part II

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator 2

Inside Out 2

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Alex Garland for Civil War

Steve McQueen for Blitz

George Miller for Furiousa: A Mad Max Saga

Ridley Scott for Gladiator 2

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Paul Mescal in Gladiator 2

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Noemie Merlant in Emmanuelle

Anya Taylor-Joy in Furiosa

Zendaya in Challengers

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Denzel Washington in Gladiator 2

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Connie Nielsen in Gladiator 2

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Here Is The Official Cannes Lineup!


The lineup for the Cannes Film Festival has been announced.  After a rather subdued Sundance, film lovers like me are desperately looking to Cannes to add some excitement to 2024.  Considering that Cannes is going to see the premiere of new films from Francis Ford Coppola, Paul Schrader, Sean Baker, Kevin Costner, Andrea Arnold, George Miller, David Cronenberg, and Yorgos Lanthimos, it might do just that!

In the past, Cannes has always been hit-and-miss when it comes to the Oscars.  But lately, films like The Zone of Interest, Parasite, and The Tree of Life have followed success at Cannes with success with the Academy.

With that in mind, here’s the lineup.  If you’re going to Cannes in May, you’re going to have a good time!

Full lineup of the 2024 Cannes film festival.

The Second Act Quentin Dupieux (Opening Film) (Out of Competition)

Competition

L’Amour Ouf Gilles Lellouche

All We Imagine As Light Payal Kapadia

Anora Sean Baker

The Apprentice Ali Abbasi

Bird Andrea Arnold

Caught by the Tides Jia Zhangke

Emilia Perez Jacques Audiard

The Girl With the Needle Magnus von Horn

Grand Tour Miguel Gomes

Limonov: The Ballad Kirill Serebrennikov

Marcello Mio Christophe Honoré

Megalopolis Francis Ford Coppola

Motel Destino Karim Ainouz

Oh Canada Paul Schrader

Parthenope Paolo Sorrentino

The Shrouds David Cronenberg

The Substance Coralie Fargeat

Wild Diamond Agathe Riedinger

Kinds of Kindness Yorgos Lanthimos

Out of Competition

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga George Miller

Horizon, an American Saga Kevin Costner

Rumours Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson, Guy Maddin

She’s Got No Name Chan Peter Ho-Sun

Un Certain Regard

Armand Halfdan Ullmann Tondel

Black Dog Guan Hu

The Damned Roberto Minervini

L’Histoire de Souleymane Boris Lojkine

My Sunshine Boku No Ohisama

Norah Tawik Alzaidi

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl Rungano Nyoni

Le Royaume Julien Colonna

Santosh Sandhya Suri

September Says Ariane Labed

The Shameless Konstantin Bojanov

Viet and Nam Truong Minh Quý

The Village Next to Paradise Mo Harawe

Vingt Deux! Louise Courvoisier

Who Let the Dogs Bite? Laetitia Dosch

Midnight Screenings

The Balconettes Noémie Merlant

I, The Executioner Seung Wan Ryoo

The Surfer Lorcan Finnegan

Twilight of the Warrior Walled In Soi Cheang

Cannes Premiere

C’est Pas Moi Leos Carax

Everybody Loves Touda Nabil Ayouch

The Matching Bang Emmanuel Courcol

Misericorde Alain Guiraudie

Rendez-Vous Avec Pol Pot Rithy Panh

Le Roman de Jim Arnaud Larrieu, Jean-Marie Larrieu

Special Screenings

Apprendre Claire Simon

La Belle de Gaza Yolande Zauberman

Ernest Cole, Lost and Found Raoul Peck

Le Fil Daniel Auteuil

The Invasion Sergei Loznitsa

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Now that the 2023 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2024 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  Sundance was a bit low-key this year.  Dune Part II seems like a contender but will it be remembered 9 months from now?  Whereas last year started out with everyone waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, this year feels far different as Hollywood, still recovering from last year’s strikes, tries to catch up.  As many will say over the months to come, no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Didi

Dune, Part II

Emmanuelle

The Fire Inside

Here

Hit Man

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Richard Linklater for Hit Man

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part II

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Andre Holland in The Actor

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Adria Arjona in Hit Man

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Anthony Wong in Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Naomi Watts in Emmanuelle

A Few Late Thoughts On The 96th Oscars


Last night, the Oscars actually ended early.

Not that early, of course.  In fact, towards the end of the show, Jimmy Kimmel came out and did his usual anti-Trump schtick just to pad out the running time so that the Oscars managed to make it to the allotted 3 hour and 30 minute mark.  (And yes, it is schtick.  The late night hosts need Trump just as much as Trump needs them.)  The thing is, though, the Oscars usually run over by a good 30 minutes.  The show ending on time means that it ended early.  This is the first Oscar telecast, in my lifetime, to end on time.  I could actually go out and do stuff after the show ended.  It was fun!

As for the show itself, it was a relatively smooth production.  No one got slapped.  There were no major technical snafus.  As to be expected, there were a few embarrassing acceptance speeches.  I thought Zone of Interest was a powerful film and I also thought Under The Skin was brilliant but I can still do without ever having to listen to Jonathan Glazer give another speech.  One can only imagine how Martin Amis would have reacted to Glazer’s “speech.”

(Martin Amis wrote the novel that served as the basis for the film that won Glazer an Oscar.  Amis never had much use for the wimpy or the self-important.)

Ryan Gosling’s performance of I Am Ken was the highlight of the show.  Of course, then the song failed to win the Oscar.  It reminded me a bit of how, in 2021, the entire broadcast was designed to end with Chadwick Boseman receiving a posthumous award, just for a confused Joaquin Phoenix to read Anthony Hopkins’s name instead.  Sometimes, the voters really do just vote for who or what they think should win, regardless of the preferred narrative.

In fact, for all the hype, Barbie wasn’t much of a factor in the awards.  It won one Oscar, for the song that wasn’t I Am Ken.  The Academy was far more impressed with Poor Things.  Still, Barbie did better than Killers of the Flower Moon, which won not a single award.  Poor Things‘s Emma Stone defeating Lily Gladstone was the upset of the evening.  Am I the only one who briefly got worried that Poor Things would somehow win Best Picture over Oppenheimer?

The big winner, of course, was Oppenheimer.  My top film of 2023 was Past Lives but Oppenheimer was a close second.  (Until Glazer gave his speech, Zone of Interest was my third pick.)  Robert Downey, Jr. became the first former SNL cast member to win an acting Oscar.  Christopher Nolan accepted his Oscar from Steven Spielberg, which felt like a real changing-of-the-guard moment.  Cillian Murphy won Best Actor.  I would have voted for Paul Giamatti but Murphy still deserves a lot of credit for holding Oppenheimer together.

Godzilla is an Oscar winner!  Yay!

All in all, it was a good show.  Occasionally, it was even fun.  It was very efficient, as if the Academy specifically picked this year to show ABC that it actually could put on an orderly show that didn’t preempt the entire network’s programming by an extra hour.  My advice for next year would be to stop doing the thing where five previous winners came out to praise the current nominees.  (That bit has always felt a bit condescending and I would much rather see clips of the nominated performances.)  And maybe get John Mulaney to host because Jimmy Kimmel has become just way too impressed with himself.

Now, 2023 is done.  Onward to 2024!

(Actually, you know what I haven’t done, yet?  I haven’t posted my picks for the best of 2023.  I’ll do that this week, even though I doubt anyone cares at this point.  But I’ve posted my lists every year and I’m not going to break tradition now.  I just have a handful of movies to watch today and tomorrow….)

Congratulations! You Have Survived Another Oscar Sunday!


That’s it!  That’s a wrap!  All that is left to do is to cue up all of our applause GIFs:

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We hope everyone has enjoyed Oscar Sunday!

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Now that the Oscars are over with, it’s time to start a new year of entertainment!  Thank you everyone for reading us over the course of 2023 and the first two months of 2024!

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Now, let’s make 2024 the best year ever as we continue to celebrate the 14th year of the Shattered Lens!

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Love you!