The New York Film Critics Circle Honors Roma, Hawke, and Hall!


The New York Film Critics Circle announced their picks for the best of 2018 earlier today.  The victories for Roma, Regina King, and Richard E. Grant are not surprising, as all three of them have been getting awards buzz for months.

Ethan Hawke’s victory for First Reformed is a bit more surprising because, even though his performance was widely acclaimed, I think a lot of people assumed that First Reformed came out too early in the year to be an awards contender.  (That’s proving to not be the case, which is a good thing because Hawke’s performance definitely deserves consideration.)

The biggest surprise was Regina Hall’s victory for Support the Girls, a film that I haven’t seen yet,  Is this going to lead to Oscar glory or is this going to be one of those fluke awards that occasionally happens during awards season?  Time will tell but it’s unexpected awards like this that make me love this time of year.

(And yes, I will be watching Support the Girls as soon as I can.  That’s another good thing about awards season.  It can inspire you to take a chance on movies that you might otherwise have missed.)

BEST PICTURE: “Roma” (Netflix)
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma” (Netflix)
BEST ACTOR: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed” (A24)
BEST ACTRESS: Regina Hall, “Support the Girls” (Magnolia Pictures)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” (Annapurna Pictures)
BEST SCREENPLAY: “First Reformed” by Paul Schrader (A24)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma” (Netflix)
BEST ANIMATED FILM: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” by Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman (Sony Pictures Animation)
BEST NON-FICTION AWARD: “Minding the Gap” by Bing Liu (Hulu)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “Cold War” by Pawel Pawlikowski – Poland (Amazon Studios)
BEST FIRST FILM: Bo Burnham, “Eighth Grade” (A24)
SPECIAL AWARD: David Schwartz, stepping down as Chief Film Curator at Museum of the Moving Image after 33 years AND Kino Classics Box Set “Pioneers: First Women Filmmakers”

 

Here Are The 2018 Satellite Nominations!


Awards season has just begun, which means that it’s time for the International Press Academy to announce their nominees for the 23rd Satellite Awards.  If you’ve never heard of the Satellite Awards, they’re like the Golden Globes, just with even less credibility.  For instance, the Satellite people are the one who nominated The Wolf of Wall Street for best picture, despite having not seen the film.

That said, the Satellite nominations are good way to gauge which films are currently getting awards buzz.  Let’s put it like this: getting a Satellite nomination is not going to automatically translate into Oscar recognition.  But it doesn’t hurt.

Below are the film nominations.  (In the interest of space, I’m only posting the film nominations.  If you want to see which tv shows picked up nominations, click here.)

Film

Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Major, Independent or International

  • Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
  • Glenn Close, “The Wife”
  • Viola Davis, “Widows”
  • Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
  • Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • Rosamund Pike, “Private War”

Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Major, Independent or International

  • Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
  • Ben Foster, “ Leave No Trace”
  • Ryan Gosling, “First Man
  • Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
  • Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”
  • Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”

Actress in Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Major, Independent or International

  • Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
  • Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
  • Trine Dyrholm “Nico, 1988″
  • Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
  • Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
  • Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”

Actor in Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Major, Independent or International

  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
  • Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
  • Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
  • Nick Robinson, “Love, Simon
  • John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Actress in a Supporting Role
Major, Independent, Comedy & Musical or International

  • Claire Foy, “First Man
  • Nicole Kidman, “Boy Erased”
  • Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots”
  • Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
  • Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Actor in a Supporting Role
Major, Independent, Comedy & Musical or International

  • Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
  • Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
  • Russell Crowe, “Boy Erased”
  • Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
  • Richard Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Motion Picture, Drama
Major

  • Black Panther,” Walt Disney
  • First Man,” Universal
  • “Hereditary,” A24
  • “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Annapurna Pictures
  • “Mary Queen of Scots,” Focus Features
  • “Widows,”  Twentieth Century Fox

Motion Picture, Independent

  • “BlacKkKlansman,” Focus Features
  • “Eighth Grade,” A24
  • “First Reformed,” A24
  • “Leave No Trace,” Bleecker Street Media
  • “Private Life,” Netflix
  • “A Private War,” Aviron Pictures

Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Major, Independent or International

  • “Crazy Richard Asians,” Warner Bros.
  • “The Favourite,” Fox Searchlight Pictures
  • “Green Book,” Universal Pictures
  • “Mary Poppins Returns,” Walt Disney
  • “Nico, 1988,” Magnolia Pictures
  • “A Star is Born,” Warner Bros.

Motion Picture, International Film

  • “The Cakemaker,” Israel
  • “Cold War,” Poland
  • “The Guilty,” Denmark
  • “I Am Not A Witch,” United Kingdom
  • “Roma,” Mexico
  • “Shoplifters,” Japan

Motion Picture, Animated or Mixed Media

  • “Incredibles 2,” Walt Disney
  • “Isle of Dogs,” Fox Searchlight Pictures
  • “Liz and the Blue Bird,” Eleven Arts
  • “Mirai,” GKIDS Films
  • “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Walt Disney
  • “Ruben Brandt, Collector,” Sony Pictures Classics

Motion Picture, Documentary

  • “Crime + Punishment,” Hulu
  • “Free Solo,” National Geographic
  • “Minding the Gap,” Hulu
  • “RBG,” Magnolia Pictures
  • “Three Identical Strangers,”  Focus Features
  • “Won’t You Be My Neighbor,” Focus Features

Director

  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”
  • Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
  • Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

Screenplay, Original

  • Bo Burnham, “Eighth Grade”
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara, “The Favourite”
  • John Krasinski, Scott Beck, Bryan Woods, “A Quiet Place
  • Paul Schrader, “First Reformed”
  • Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly, “Green Book”

Screenplay, Adapted

  • Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, “A Star is Born”
  • Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, “Leave No Trace”
  • Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, Peter Fellows, “The Death of Stalin”
  • Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott, Charlie Wachtel, “BlacKkKlansman”

Original Score

  • Thomas Ades, “Colette”
  • Terence Blanchard, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Nicholas Britell, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Alexandre Desplat, “The Sisters Brothers”
  • Justin Hurwitz, “First Man”
  • Hans Zimmer, “Widows”

Original Song

  • “All The Stars” from “Black Panther”
  • “Can You Imagine That?” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
  • “Requiem for a Private War” from “A Private War”
  • “Revelation” from “Boy Erased”
  • “Shallow” from “A Star is Born”
  • “Strawberries & Cigarettes” from “Love, Simon

Cinematography

  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • James Laxton, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Matthew Libatique, “A Star is Born”
  • Robbie Ryan, “The Favourite”
  • Rachel Morrison, “Black Panther
  • Lukasz Zal, “Cold War”

Visual Effects

  •   “Avengers: Infinity War,” Walt Disney
  •   “Black Panther,” Walt Disney
  •   “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” Warner Bros.
  •   “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom,” Universal
  •   “Rampage,” Warner Bros.
  •   “Ready Player One,” Warner Bros.

Film Editing

  • Barry Alexander Brown, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Jay Cassidy, “A Star is Born”
  • Tom Cross, “First Man
  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Joe Walker, “Widows”

Sound (Editing and Mixing)

  • Black Panther,” Walt Disney
  • First Man,” Universal
  • “Mary Poppins Returns,” Walt Disney
  • A Quiet Place,” Paramount
  • “Roma,”  Netflix
  • “A Star Is Born,” Warner Bros.

Art Direction and Production Design

  • Black Panther,” Walt Disney
  • “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,”  Warner Bros.
  • “The Favourite,” Fox Searchlight
  • First Man,” Universal
  • “Mary Poppins Returns,” Walt Disney
  • “Roma,” Magnolia Pictures

Costume Design

  • Colleen Atwood, “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
  • Erin Benach, “A Star is Born”
  • Alexandra Byrne, “Mary Queen of Scots”
  • Ruth E. Carter, “Black Panther
  • Andrea Flesch, “Colette”
  • Sandy Powell, “The Favourite”

 

 

The National Board of Review Opens “Green Book”


Today, the National Board of Review announced their picks for the best of 2018!

Every year, the announcement of the NBR’s picks is considered to be the “official” start of Awards Season.  (This despite the fact that the Spirit Nominations were announced a few weeks ago and the Gotham Awards were handed out just last night.)  Getting honored by the NBR is considered to be a big boost, when it comes to getting Academy recognition.  Of course, nothing’s guaranteed but, since 2010, every NBR best picture winner (with the exception of A Most Violent Year in 2014) has received a corresponding Oscar nomination.

(Interestingly enough, the last time that the NBR winner actually went on to also win the Oscar for Best Picture was way back in 2008.  That’s when Slumdog Millionaire won.)

This year, the NBR named, as best picture of the year, Green Book.  That’s certainly a boost that Green Book, which has been struggling at the box office, needed.  The NBR also gave a big boost to A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper for Best Director, Lady Gaga for Best Actress, Sam Elliott for Best Supporting Actor), If Beale Street Could Talk (Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress), First Reformed (Best Original Screenplay and Top Ten of the Year) and maybe Black Panther and A Quiet Place (both of which were named as one of the ten best films of 2018).

Not getting a boost from the NBR: Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman and Damien Chazelle’s First Man, neither of which received any mention.

Here are the National Board of Review’s picks for the best of 2018:

  • Best Film:  GREEN BOOK
  • Best Director:  Bradley Cooper, A STAR IS BORN
  • Best Actor:  Viggo Mortensen, GREEN BOOK
  • Best Actress: Lady Gaga, A STAR IS BORN
  • Best Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott, A STAR IS BORN
  • Best Supporting Actress:  Regina King, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
  • Best Original Screenplay:  Paul Schrader, FIRST REFORMED
  • Best Adapted Screenplay:  Barry Jenkins, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
  • Best Animated Feature:  INCREDIBLES 2
  • Breakthrough Performance: Thomasin McKenzie, LEAVE NO TRACE
  • Best Directorial Debut:  Bo Burnham, EIGHTH GRADE
  • Best Foreign Language Film:  COLD WAR
  • Best Documentary:  RBG
  • Best Ensemble:  CRAZY RICH ASIANS
  • William K. Everson Film History Award: THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND and THEY’LL LOVE ME WHEN I’M DEAD
  • NBR Freedom of Expression Award:  22 JULY
  • NBR Freedom of Expression Award:  ON HER SHOULDERS

Top Films (in alphabetical order)

  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
  • Black Panther
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Eighth Grade
  • First Reformed
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • A Quiet Place
  • Roma
  • A Star Is Born

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)

  • Burning
  • Custody
  • The Guilty
  • Happy as Lazzaro
  • Shoplifters

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

  • Crime  + Punishment
  • Free Solo
  • Minding the Gap
  • Three Identical Strangers
  • Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

  • The Death of Stalin
  • Lean on Pete
  • Leave No Trace
  • Mid90s
  • The Old Man & the Gun
  • The Rider
  • Searching
  • Sorry to Bother You
  • We the Animals
  • You Were Never Really Here

Lisa’s Oscar Predictions For October


And now, we take a short break from TSL’s annual horrorthon to bring you Lisa Marie’s Oscar predictions for October!

Be sure to check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, May. June. July, August and September!

Best Picture

Black Panther

Boy Erased

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Mule

Roma

A Star is Born

Vice

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for First Man

Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

Peter Farrelly for Green Book

Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Actor

Christian Bale in Vice

Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born

Clint Eastwood in The Mule

Robert Redford in Old Man and the Gun

John C. Reilly in Stan & Ollie

Best Actress

Glenn Close in The Wife

Lady Gaga in A Star is Born

Felicity Jones in On The Basis of Sex

Nicole Kidman in Destroyer

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Green Book

Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy

Bradley Cooper in The Mule

Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Claire Foy in First Man

Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

Sissy Spacek in Old Man and the Gun

Michelle Yeoh in Crazy Rich Asians

 

 

 

Lisa’s Early Oscar Predictions for September


It’s that time again!

It’s time for my somewhat random Oscar predictions!

Judging from the reactions at Venice Film Festival, Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born would appear to be the current Oscar front runner.  At the very least, it seems destined to be nominated.  Personally, I still wonder if a remake of A Star is Born is going to have enough political cachet in a year that, so far, has been dominated by Hollywood virtue signaling.

Anyway, it’s a bit of a cliché to say the Oscar race is wide open but, despite all of the buzz around A Star is Born, it still feels as if it is.  That said, it’s also becoming a bit more clear.  Former front runners like Mary, Queen of Scots have fallen off the radar.  It seems likely the Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman will not be released until next year.  There are rumors that Clint Eastwood’s The Mule might get a December qualifying run but, for now, those are just rumors.

Below are my predictions for this month.  The usual caveats about wishful thinking and wild guesses apply.  To be honest, we won’t know anything for sure until the critics and the guilds make their voices heard in December and January.

Be sure to check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, May, June, July, and August!

Best Picture

Beautiful Boy

BlackKklansman

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for First Man

Jon M. Chu for Crazy Rich Asians

Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

Spike Lee for BlackKklansman

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy

Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born

Ryan Gosling in First Man

Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody

Robert Redford in Old Man and the Gun

Best Actress

Glenn Close in The Wife

Olivia Colman in The Favourite

Nicole Kidman in Destroyer

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Julia Roberts in Ben Is Back

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Green Book

Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy

Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

Ben Foster in Leave No Trace

Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Claire Foy in First Man

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

Sissy Spacek in Old Man and the Gun

Rachel Weisz in The Favourite

Michelle Yeoh in Crazy Rich Asians

Barry and Oscar

Lisa’s Early Oscar For Predictions For August


It’s time once again for my monthly attempt to predict next year’s Oscar nominations!

As always, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.  BlackKklansman has emerged as a contender and there’s a few impressive trailers out there.  If the Academy goes through with this stupid Best Popular Film Oscar, I’m going to assume that’ll knock Black Panther out of contention for Best Picture.  For now, I’m going to hope that the backlash will cause the Academy to abandon the idea.

(For the record, it now appears that the whole Best Popular Film fiasco was due more to pressure from ABC than from actual members of the Academy.  And, let’s just be honest — Best Popular Film sounds just stupid enough to be the idea of a television executive.)

So, as usual, these nominations are a combination of wishful thinking, wild guesses, and sincere intuition.  If nothing else, they should be amusing to look back upon when the actual nominations are announced.

Be sure to check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, May, June, and July!

Best Picture

Beautiful Boy

Black Panther

BlackKklansman

Boy Erased

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Old Man and the Gun

Roma

Widows

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for First Man

Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee for BlackKklasman

Steve McQueen for Widows

Best Actor

Christian Bale in Backseat

Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy

Ryan Gosling in First Man

Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody

Robert Redford in Old Man and the Gun

Best Actress

Glenn Close in The Wife

Viola Davis in Widows

Felicity Jones in On The Basis of Sex

Keira Knightley in Colette 

Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Green Book

Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy

Russell Crowe in Boy Erased

Adam Driver in BlackKklansman

Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Claire Foy in First Man

Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

Margot Robbie in Mary, Queen of Scots

Sissy Spacek in Old Man and the Gun

 

Some Thoughts On Today’s Really Bad Oscar News


Today, we learned some news about the future of the Academy Awards and it was pretty much all bad.

First off, here’s the message that was issued earlier today:

Dear Member,

Last night, the Board of Governors met to elect new board officers, and discuss and approve significant changes to the Oscars telecast.

The Board of Governors, staff, Academy members, and various working groups spent the last several months discussing improvements to the show.

Tonight, the Board approved three key changes:

1. A three-hour Oscars telecast

We are committed to producing an entertaining show in three hours, delivering a more accessible Oscars for our viewers worldwide.

To honor all 24 award categories, we will present select categories live, in the Dolby Theatre, during commercial breaks (categories to be determined). The winning moments will then be edited and aired later in the broadcast.

2. New award category

We will create a new category for outstanding achievement in popular film. Eligibility requirements and other key details will be forthcoming.

3. Earlier airdate for 92nd Oscars

The date of the 92nd Oscars telecast will move to Sunday, February 9, 2020, from the previously announced February 23. The date change will not affect awards eligibility dates or the voting process.

The 91st Oscars telecast remains as announced on Sunday, February 24, 2019.

We have heard from many of you about improvements needed to keep the Oscars and our Academy relevant in a changing world. The Board of Governors took this charge seriously.

We are excited about these steps, and look forward to sharing more details with you.

John Bailey and Dawn Hudson

Let’s take this point-by-point.

Number one: the three-hour telecast.

Who cares?  I mean, yes, the Oscars always run long.  But really, that’s part of the charm of the whole ceremony.  It never runs as smoothly as it’s supposed to and it’s a reminder that, as smug as Hollywood can be, they have as difficult a time meeting deadlines as the rest of us.

But, even if you do think that the length of the ceremony is really a big issue, is the solution really to punish the winners?  For me, one of the good things about the Oscar ceremony is that it acknowledges what is too often forgotten.  Film is a collaborative medium.  People like Roger Deakins, Colleen Atwood, Joi McMillon, and Carter Burwell are just as important to the overall quality of a film as Ryan Gosling or Jennifer Lawrence.  Giving them their awards during a commercial break is not only insulting on a personal level but it also goes against everything that the Oscars should stand for.

Plus, I happen to love it when a previously unknown filmmaker wins the Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film and then totally geeks out about it on the stage.  I mean, that’s the magic of the movies right there.  At that moment, you’re sharing the best moment of this person’s life.  If I have to choose between listening to Chris Overton and Rachel Shelton talk about winning the Oscar for their short film, The Silent Child, or listening to Meryl Streep insist that she’s actually just a working mom from New Jersey, I’m going with Overton and Shelton every time.

If you want to cut down on the length of the ceremony, how about not opening with the host giving a 10-minute monologue?  How about not wasting time with those always cringe-worthy segments where stars visit the theater next door or the host insists that everyone buy his daughter’s girl scout cookies?

(I know that everyone loved the Oscar selfie but seriously, every ceremony now feels the need to try to top it and it’s just annoying.)

How about not even having a host?  Or at the very least, how about a host who will just introduce the presenters without bring their own time-consuming schtick to the stage?  I mean, Jimmy Kimmel has a show of his own to have celebrities read mean tweets on.  There’s no need to bring the Oscar ceremony to a halt for it.

Number Two: Best Achievement In Popular Film

Eh.  You might as well just call this the Christopher Nolan Trophy or maybe the MCU Award.  Though the details aren’t clear yet, it basically sounds like a participation trophy.

Basically, this award says, “We’re not willing to seriously consider a film like Black Panther for any of the major awards but we’re freaking out about the ratings so here’s an honorable mention.”  It’s kinda like in high school, when someone would really debase themselves to get the popular kids to come to their party and you ended up losing respect for them regardless of whether the party was good or not.

We all know that the Academy needs to open its mind and, at the very least, give some consideration to films like Wonder Woman, The Dark Knight, Skyfall, and Black Panther.  But this isn’t the way to do it.  If anything, this award just gives the Academy even more of a excuse to ignore those “popular” films when it comes time to select the nominees for Best Picture.

Add to that, what does popular mean anyway?  Why not just give a trophy to the producer of the film that made the most money at the box office?

Number Three: The new dates

To be honest, this upset me more than anything.  This doesn’t take effect until 2020 but, if the ceremony is moving to February 9th, then when are the nominations going to be announced?  Considering that most Oscar contenders get a limited release before going wide in January, this is going to create a situation where people like me, who don’t live in Los Angeles and New York and who don’t want to move, aren’t going to be able to see the majority of the nominees before the nominations are announced.  It’s interesting that, in their attempt to appeal to a wider audience, the Academy is basically embracing elitism like never before.

Here’s the thing: the Oscars are never going to be cool.  They’re just not.  Nobody — not even the biggest Oscar fanatics — believe that the Oscars ever truly honors the best films of the year.  The Oscars have been around forever and they’re always going to be viewed as being a bit stodgy.  If giving best picture to Moonlight couldn’t change that perception, nothing ever will.  The more the Oscars try to change, the more they’re like Steve Buscemi carrying a skateboard and saying, “Greetings, fellow kids.”

There may be a solution to the Academy’s woes but this isn’t it.

Oscar, in happier times

 

Lisa’s Oscar Predictions for July


Well, here we are.  We’re more than halfway through the year and, to be honest, the Oscar forecast seems just as cloudy as ever.

To be honest, I’m starting to get the feeling that this is going to be a year where the Academy is more concerned with sending a message than anything else.  Just as the Emmy nominations were all about sticking it to Trump (as opposed to actually honoring the best that television has to offer), it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Academy try to do the same thing.  That doesn’t mean that the nominees aren’t going to deserve to be nominated, of course.  Instead, it just means that this might be a good year for films with a political agenda.

Anyway, here are my predictions for July!  They’re still pretty random, to be honest.  Be sure to also check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, May, and June!

Best Picture

Backseat

Black Panther

BlackKklansman

Boy Erased

The Favourite

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Old Man and The Gun

Widows

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for First Man

Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite

Spike Lee for BlackKklansman

Josie Rourke for Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Actor

Christian Bale in Backseat

Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy

Ryan Gosling in First Man

Robert Redford in Old Man and The Gun

John David Washington in BlackKklansman

Best Actress

Glenn Close in The Wife

Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex

Keira Knightley in Colette

Rosamund Pike in A Private War

Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

Russell Crowe in Boy Erased

Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

Topher Grace in BlackKklansman

Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Sam Rockwell in Backseat

Best Supporting Actress

Claire Foy in First Man

Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

Margot Robbie in Mary, Queen of Scots

Sissy Spacek in Old Man and the Gun

Lisa’s Early Oscar Predictions for June


We’re nearly halfway through 2018 and it’s time for me to once again post my somewhat random Oscar predictions!

As usual, these predictions are a combination of instinct or wishful thinking.  Do I really think that Orson Welles’s final film will dominate the Oscars?  Well, why not?  It’d be a great story if it happened.  The same goes for Black Panther becoming the first comic book movie to receive a best picture nomination.  It’d be nice if it happened and, with most of the contenders still unseen, there’s no reason to arbitrarily dismiss the film’s chances.

Based on the reaction that it received at Cannes, I’ve added Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman to my list of predicted best picture nominees.

As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt.  Some of these films and performers will be nominated.  (First Man, for instance, seems like a lock.)  Many of them will not.  If nothing else, my monthly predictions always seem to be useful for a good laugh in retrospect.  And there’s nothing wrong with that!  The predictions that don’t come true are often even more fun than the predictions that do.

It should also be remembered that some of the films listed below don’t even set release dates yet.  Some of them might not even open this year.  There are other films — like Burden — that seems like they should be contenders but they’ve yet to get a distributor.  And then there’s Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which is scheduled to be released by Netflix in 2019 but it’s always possible that film could be moved up on the schedule.  If The Irishman does get a last-minute December release, chances are that the Oscar race will be dramatically altered.

Or maybe not.  Remember how Silence was a front runner all through 2016, just to end up with one nomination?  It’s hard to predict which films will have “that Barton Fink feeling.”

(Yes, I’m currently watching Barton Fink.  Thinking about the Oscars will enjoying a film from the Coen Brothers?  Life is good, as my twitter girl crush often puts it.)

Please be sure to check out my predictions for January, February, March, April, and May.

Best Picture

BlackKklansman

Black Panther

Boy Erased

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

The Other Side of the Wind

A Star is Born

White Boy Rick

Widows

Best Director

Damien Chazelle for First Man

Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee for BlackKklansman

Steve McQueen for Widows

Orson Welles for The Other Side of the Wind

Best Actor

Steve Carell in Beautiful Boy

Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born

Willem DaFoe in At Eternity’s Gate

Ryan Gosling in First Man

Robert Redford in The Old Man & The Gun

Best Actress

Viola Davis in Widows

Felicity Jones in On The Basis of Sex

Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Chloe Grace Moretz in The Miseducation of Cameron Post

Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy

Russell Crowe in Boy Erased

Adam Driver in BlackKklansman

Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Claire Foy in First Man

Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk

Margot Robbie in Mary, Queen of Scots

Sissy Space in The Old Man & The Gun

Here’s What Won At Cannes 2018!


This year’s strangely low-key Cannes Film Festival has come to a close!  Here’s what won at Cannes this year:

In Competition

Palme d’Or: Shoplifters by Hirokazu Kore-eda
Grand Prix: BlacKkKlansman by Spike Lee
Best Director: Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War
Best Screenplay:
Alice Rohrwacher for Happy as Lazzaro
Jafar Panahi for 3 Faces
Best Actress: Samal Yeslyamova for Ayka
Best Actor: Marcello Fonte for Dogman
Jury Prize: Capernaum by Nadine Labaki
Special Palme d’Or: Jean-Luc Godard

Un Certain Regard

Un Certain Regard Award: Border by Ali Abbasi
Un Certain Regard Jury Prize: The Dead and the Others by João Salaviza and Renée Nader Messora
Un Certain Regard Award for Best Director: Sergei Loznitsa for Donbass
Un Certain Regard Jury Award for Best Performance: Victor Polster for Girl
Un Certain Regard Award for Best Screenplay: Meryem Benm’Barek-Aloïsi for Sofia

Cinéfondation

First Prize: The Summer of the Electric Lion by Diego Céspedes
Second Prize:
Calendar by Igor Poplauhin
The Storms in Our Blood by Shen Di
Third Prize: Inanimate by Lucia Bulgheroni

The question that we ask every year is whether the Cannes Film Festival will have any effect on the Oscar race.  We especially ask that whenever an American film wins the Palme d’Or or an American or British performer takes home one of the acting prizes.  This year, BlacKkKlansman was the highest rewarded American film, though it didn’t pick up the Palme.  That said, even if it didn’t win the top prize, BlacKkKlansman did receive rapturous reviews, certainly enough justify it’s current status as a possible Oscar nominee.

So, in the end — who knows?