Now that the awards for the best of 2025 have been handed out, it’s time to think about what might be nominated next year!
Below are my first set of Oscar predictions for 2026! What am I basing these predictions on? Nothing but instinct, wild guesses, and hopeful thinking. Take them with a grain of salt. If nothing else, we’ll look back on these a year from now and we’ll laugh. Or, we’ll be amazed at my cognitive abilities.
First released in 1981 and then re-released in several different versions since then, Heaven’s Gate begins at Harvard University.
The year is 1870 and the graduates of Harvard have got their entire future ahead of them. At the graduation ceremony, Joseph Cotten gives a speech about how, as men of cultivation, they have an obligation to help the uncultivated. Student orator Billy Irvine (John Hurt) then gives a speech in which he jokingly says the exact opposite. Amongst the graduates, Billy’s friend, Jim Averill (Kris Kristofferson), laughs at Billy’s speech. It’s a bit of a strange scene, if just because all of the graduates appear to be teenagers except for Hurt and Kristofferson, who are both clearly in their 30s. The graduates of Harvard sing to their girlfriends and dance under a tree and, for a fleeting moment, all seems to be right with the world.
Twenty years later, all seems to be wrong with the world. Averill is now the rugged and world-weary marshal of Johnson Country, Wyoming. Cattle barons are trying to force immigrant settlers to give up their land. Gunmen, like Nate Champion (Christopher Walken) and Nick Ray (Mickey Rourke), are accepting contracts to execute immigrants who are suspected of stealing cattle. When Averill stands up for the people of Johnson Country, the head of the Wyoming Stock Grower Association, Frank Canton (Sam Waterston), hires a group of mercenaries to ride into Johnson County and execute 125 settlers. Billy Irvine, who now is dissolute alcoholic who works with Canton, warns his old friend Averill. Averill, who has fallen in love with Ella (Isabelle Huppert), the local madam, announces that he will defend the immigrants. Nate, who is also in love with Ella, considers changing sides.
Heaven’s Gate is loosely based on an actual event. I actually have three distant ancestors who traveled to Wyoming to take part in the Johnson County War. All three of them survived, though one of them was shot and killed in an unrelated manner shortly after returning to Ft. Smith, Arkansas. That said, director Michael Cimino is clearly not that interested in the historical reality of the Johnson County War or the issues that it raised. Just as he did with Vietnam in The Deer Hunter, Cimino uses the Johnson County War as a way to signify a loss of national innocence. Averill and Irvine start the film as hopeful “young” men with the future ahead of them. By the end of the film, one is dead and the other is living on a yacht and dealing with what appears to be crippling ennui.
Heaven’s Gate is a bit of an infamous film. Though the film was pretty much a standard western, Cimino still went far over-budget and turned in a first cut that was over six hours long. A four hour version was briefly released in 1980 but withdrawn after a week, due to terrible reviews and audience indifference. A studio-edited version that ran for two hours and 35 minutes got the widest release in 1981. Since then, there have been several other versions released. Cimino’s director’s cut, which was released as a part of the Criterion Collection in 2012, runs for 212-minutes and is considered to now be the “official” version of Heaven’s Gate.
For years, Heaven’s Gate had a terrible reputation. It’s failure at the box office was blamed for bankrupting United Artists. After the excesses of the Heaven’s Gate production, studios were far more reluctant to just give a director a bunch of money and let him run off to make his movie. (They should have learned their lesson with Dennis Hopper and The Last Movie.) Described by studio execs as being self-indulgent and even mentally unstable, Michael Cimino’s career never recovered and the director of The Deer Hunter went from being an Oscar-winner to being an industry pariah. (Some who disliked The Deer Hunter’s perceived jingoistic subtext claimed that Heaven’s Gate proved The Deer Hunter was just an overrated fluke.) However, the reputation of Heaven’s Gate has improved, especially with the release of Cimino’s director’s cut. Many critics have praised Heaven’s Gate for its epic portrayal of the west and, ironically given the controversy over The Deer Hunter, its political subtext. It’s anti-immigrant villains made the film popular amongst the Resistance-leaning film historians during the first Trump term.
So, is Heaven’s Gate a masterpiece or a disaster? To be honest, it’s somewhere in between. Whereas it was once over-criticized, it’s now over-praised. Visually, it’s a beautiful film but those who complained that the film was too slow had a point. As with The Deer Hunter, Cimino takes the time to introduce us to and immerse us in a tight-knit immigrant community. Personally, I like the much-criticized scenes of the fiddler on skates and Averill and Ella dancing in the roller rink. Overall though, as opposed to The Deer Hunter, the members of the film’s victimized community still feel less like individual characters and more like symbols. As for the political subtext, I think that any subtext of that sort is accidental. (I feel the same way about The Deer Hunter, which I like quite a bit more than Heaven’s Gate.) Cimino is more interested in the loss of innocence than whether or not the Johnson County War can be fit into some sort of nonsense Marxist framework.
The main problem with the film is that there is no center to keep everything grounded. Kris Kristofferson had a definite screen presence but, as an actor who was incapable of showing a great deal of emotion, he lacks the gravitas necessary to keep from being swallowed up by Cimino’s epic pretensions. Isabelle Huppert, an otherwise great actress, also feels lost in the role of Ella and Sam Waterston is not necessarily the most-intimidating villain to ever show up in a western. Christopher Walken, as the enigmatic and intriguing Nate Champion, gives the best performance in the film but his character still feels largely wasted.
There are some brilliant visual moments to be found in Heaven’s Gate. I even like the Harvard prologue and the ending on the boat, both of which are not technically necessary to the narrative but still add an extra-dimension to both Averill and Irvine. But, in the end, Heaven’s Gate is big when it should have been small and epic when its should have been intimate. It’s a misfire but not a disaster. Even great directors occasionally have a film that just doesn’t work. Speilberg had his 1941. Scorsese has had a handful. Coppola’s career has been a mess but no one can take his successes away from him. Michael Cimino, who passed away in 2016, deserved another chance.
I always worry a little bit about Chloe Grace Moretz.
Seriously, it seems as if every film in which she appears features her either losing her entire family or getting stalked by some psycho or both. It’s rare that she ever gets to play someone who is happy with their life. Even when she was cast against type as a spoiled, vacuous brat in Clouds of Sils Maria, she still came across as being the saddest spoiled, vacuous brat imaginable. Obviously, Mortez has the dramatic talent necessary to play these type of roles and, out of all the young actresses working today, she seems the most likely to still have an interesting career 30 years from now. Still, it’s hard not to wish that she could just do a nice, romantic comedy at some point in the future, if just to give her a break from constantly being menaced on screen.
This year’s Chloe Moretz Gets Stalked film was Greta. In this one, Moretz plays Frances McMullen, a waitress living in New York City. Frances lives in a nice loft, has a fantastic roommate and best friend named Erica (Maika Monroe), and a strained relationship with her wealthy father (Colm Feore). As is typical of any character played by Chloe Moretz, Frances is still struggling to come to terms with the recent death of her mother.
After Frances finds an expensive handbag on the subway, she returns it to its owner, a piano teacher named Greta Hibeg (Isabelle Huppert). Greta claims to be French and says that she’s been lonely ever since her daughter left home to study music in France. Frances needs a substitute mother. Greta needs a substitute daughter.
Can you tell where this is going?
If you said, “Together, they solve crimes!,” — well, you’re wrong but you’re still my hero. Instead, what all this leads to is Greta becoming rather obsessed with Frances. When Frances discovers that Greta has a whole closet full of handbags and that she’s not even French, Frances decides to end their friendship. However, Greta will not take no for an answer. Soon, Greta is following both Frances and Erica all around New York City. Greta even goes to Frances’s place of employment and makes a scene that leads to Frances losing her job. (Considering the amazingly ugly waitress uniform that Frances was required to wear, I’d say that Greta was doing her a favor.) Eventually, it all leads to a kidnapping, a drugging, and an unexpected visual gag involving the Eiffel Tower.
About 30 minutes into Greta, there’s a scene in which Isabelle Huppert spits a piece of chewing gum into Chloe Moretz’s hair and it was at that moment that I knew that I was going to absolutely love this film. I mean, there have been a lot of films made about people being stalked but it takes a certain amount of demented genius to have one of the world’s most acclaimed actresses actually spit a piece of gum into someone’s hair. Brilliantly, the film follows this up with a scene of Frances and Erica trying to press assault charges against Greta, all because of the gum incident. The cop is so cynical and unimpressed by their story that you just know that Frances is probably like the hundredth person to get attacked by chewing gum in just that day.
My point here is that there’s absolutely nothing subtle about Greta and we’re all the better for it. As directed by Neil Jordan, Greta is a thoroughly excessive and deliberately campy little film and definitely not one to be taken too seriously. Everything, from the lush cinematography to Greta’s sudden rages, is wonderfully over-the-top. While Moretz wisely underplays her role (because, after all, someone has to keep things at least vaguely grounded in reality), Maika Monroe and especially Isabelle Huppert dive head first into the film’s melodramatic atmosphere. Huppert, especially, deserves a lot of credit for her ferocious performance as Greta. Whether she’s cheerfully celebrating a murder by doing an impromptu dance or suddenly screaming in Hungarian, Huppert is never less than entertaining while, at the same time, remaining credible as a very threatening individual. One of the great joys of Greta is watching this masterful French actress play a Hungarian who is obsessed with Paris. (It’s also probably not a coincidence that Greta is obsessed with someone named Frances.)
There’s an interesting subtext to the Greta and Frances relationship, one that goes beyond a girl who needs a mother and a woman who needs a daughter. In many of the scenes where Greta stalks Frances, Huppert plays her as if she’s a spurned lover, crying out, “I love you!” and demanding that Frances return her phone calls. As for Frances, she’s portrayed as being an almost absurdly repressed single girl who spends all of her personal time with two very different women, the accepting and fun-loving Erica and the predatory and destructive Greta. (When Erica tells Frances that a guy who is interested in her is throwing a party, Frances says that she already has plans with Greta.) Watching Greta, it occurred to me that the film was really about Frances coming to terms with her own sexuality, with Greta representing her fears and Erica representing the peace of accepting who you are. The film may be about Greta stalking Frances but it’s also about Frances struggling to decide whether to give in to her fears or to accept her own identity.
Then again, it’s also totally possible that there’s no intentional subtext at all to this film. It might just be an entertaining film about Isabelle Huppert stalking Chloe Moretz. And that’s fine, too! Either way, it’s a fun movie.
So, the trailer below is a pretty good example of why people like me sometimes complain that some trailers give away way too much information.
The trailer starts out with Chloe Grace Moretz finding a bag on the subway and taking it back to its owner, who turns out to be Isabelle Huppert. So far, so good. Isabelle Huppert is a brilliant actress and Chloe Grace Moretz can be great when she has the right material to work with.
In the trailer, it appears that Moretz and Huppert quickly become friends. However, a minute into the trailer, there’s a big twist. And really, that’s where the trailer should have ended. Instead, it goes on for another minute and a half and it reveals way too much. To be honest, I felt as if I had pretty much seen the whole film by the time the trailer ended.
Oh well. I’ll still see the movie.
Here’s the trailer! You might want to stop at the one minute mark.
The Bedroom Window opens with quite a quandary. Sylvia (Isabelle Huppert) has just witnessed a woman named Denise (Elizabeth McGovern) being attacked by a serial rapist/killer named Carl (Brad Greenquist). The problem is that the window that Sylvia’s standing at is located in the bedroom of Terry Lambert (Steve Guttenberg). Sylvia is having an extramarital affair with Terry and she knows that there’s no way to tell the police what she saw without also exposing the affair. Terry decides that he’ll go to the police and tell them what Sylvia witnessed but he will claim to have seen it himself.
Terry does well enough with the police that Carl gets arrested but, at Carl’s trial, Terry’s testimony falls apart when he is revealed to be so near-sighted that there was no way he could have seen what happened from his bedroom window. Carl is not only acquitted but has now figured out that Sylvia was the one who witnessed him attacking Denise. When the killings start up again, Terry becomes the number one suspect.
An underrated and overlooked thriller, The Bedroom Window was directed by the late and missed Curtis Hanson. It’s not a perfect film. Terry does an excessive amount of stupid things over the course of the movie. But Hanson did a good job creating suspense and he got good performances from his entire cast. Steve Guttenberg may seem like a strange choice to play the lead in a Hitchcockian thriller but he actually gives a credible performance and the fact that he is not a traditional hero creates some suspense. Brad Greenquist is chilling as the killer and keep an eye out for the great Wallace Shawn in the role of Carl’s weaselly attorney.
Here are the Oscar nominations. La La Land tied Titanic’s record with 14 nominations and I’m going to predict right now that it’ll win nearly everything that it’s been nominated for. Amy Adams was totally snubbed. Meryl Streep was technically nominated for Florence Foster Jenkins but we all know it was actually for her Golden Globes speech.
I may have more to say about this later but until then, here are the noms:
Best Picture
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Best Director
Mel Gibson – “Hacksaw Ridge”
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield – “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert – “Elle”
Ruth Negga – “Loving”
Natalie Portman – “Jackie”
Emma Stone – “La La Land”
Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges – “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges – “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel – “Lion”
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals”
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman – “Lion”
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures”
Michelle William – “Manchester by the Sea”
Best Original Screenplay
“20th Century Women”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Manchester by the Sea”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
Best Animated Feature
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”
Best Production Design
“Arrival”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Hail, Caesar!”
“La La Land”
“Passengers”
Best Cinematography
“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”
Best Costume Design
“Allied”
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
Best Film Editing
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Man Called Ove”
“Star Trek Beyond”
“Suicide Squad”
Best Sound Mixing
“Arrival”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
“13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”
Best Sound Editing
“Arrival”
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“La La Land”
“Sully”
Best Visual Effects
“Deepwater Horizon”
“Doctor Strange”
“The Jungle Book”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
Best Original Score
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Passengers”
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land”
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”
“City of Stars” from “La La Land”
“The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story”
The Robert R. “Bobby” McCurdy Memorial Breakthrough Artist Award: Keith Maitland, Tower
Austin Film Award:Tower (dir: Keith Maitland)
Special Honorary Award: To the ensemble cast ofMoonlight and casting director Yesi Ramirez for excellence as an ensemble.
Special Honorary Award: To honor Anton Yelchin for his contribution to the cinema of 2016, including performances in Green Room and Star Trek Beyond. His was a brilliant career cut profoundly short.
Special Honorary Award: To A24 Films for excellence in production in distribution. Their work gave us Moonlight, Green Room, Swiss Army Man, The Lobster, The Witch, and 20th Century Women, among others.
Special Honorary Award: To filmmaker Keith Maitland and his film Tower for revisiting a tragic event in Austin, Texas history in a sensitive and unique manner.
The Online Film Critics Society announced their nominations today. Along with the usual suspects, the 7 and a half hour documentary OJ: Made in America also picked up a nomination for best picture.
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Pablo Larraín – Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Best Actor
Casey Affleck – Manchester By the Sea
Adam Driver – Paterson
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Best Actress
Amy Adams – Arrival
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Tom Bennett – Love & Friendship
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester By the Sea
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences
Lily Gladstone – Certain Women
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester By the Sea
Arrival – Eric Heisserer, Ted Chiang
Elle – David Birke, Philippe Djian
Love & Friendship – Whit Stillman Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney
Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
Best Editing
Arrival – Joe Walker
Cameraperson – Nels Bangerter
Jackie – Sebastian Sepulveda La La Land – Tom Cross Moonlight – Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
Best Cinematography
Arrival – Bradford Young
Jackie – Stéphane Fontaine La La Land – Linus Sandgren Moonlight – James Laxton
The Neon Demon – Natasha Braier
Best Film Not in the English Language
Elle – France
The Handmaiden – South Korea
Neruda – Chile
The Salesman – Iran
Toni Erdmann – Germany
Best Documentary
13th
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America Weiner
Best Non-U.S. Release
After the Storm
The Death of Louis XIV
The Girl With All the Gifts
Graduation
Nocturma
Personal Shopper
A Quiet Passion
Staying Vertical
The Unknown Girl
Yourself and Yours
Yesterday, the Florida Film Critics Circle announced their picks for the best of 2016! And guess what? While there’s plenty of familiar names on the list of honorees, Florida still went its own way by naming The Lobster as best film of the year!