Every month, around this time, I post my early Oscar predictions. These predictions are based on random guesses, early buzz, and gut instinct. Originally, I referred to these as being my way too early Oscar predictions but, now that we’re in August, they are merely early.
Below you can find my latest set of predictions. The main change for this month is that I’ve factored in the fact that, based on the trailer, it looks like The Theory of Everything will be a definite contender.
It’s time for me to update my early Oscar predictions! Every month, based on a combination of buzz, reviews, gut feelings, and random guesses, I attempt to predict which films, directors, and performers will receive nominations in 2015! Originally, I referred to these as being my “way too early Oscar predictions.” However, we are now halfway through the year and the picture is no longer quite as hazy as before. Therefore, these are now simply my “early” predictions.
As you may notice, my predictions have remained pretty stable over the past month. The advance word on Big Eyes has been mixed but, unlike a lot of Oscar watchers, I was never expecting Big Eyes to be a major contender for any award other than best actress. Meanwhile, Boyhood continues to be one of the most acclaimed films of the year, which makes me even more certain that Boyhood will be a contender in several categories. Advanced word on Foxcatcher has also been so strong that I can now imagine both Mark Ruffalo and Channing Tatum scoring nominations for best supporting actor.
The big question right now is whether or not the acclaim that’s been given to summer films like Edge of Tomorrow and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes will also translate into major Oscar nominations or will those films simply have to be satisfied with getting all of the usual technical nominations. Personally, I would love to see Andy Serkis get some love from the Academy but, sadly, I doubt it’s going to happen.
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Wild
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman
Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild
Best Actor
Steve Carell in Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton in Birdman
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Birdman is one of those films that people like me have been predicting will be an Oscar contender, despite the fact that we know next to nothing about the film. What we do know is that it’s been described as a dark comedy. We know that it features Michael Keaton as an actor who is best known for playing a super hero. We know that it has an excellent and quirky supporting cast that is made up of wonderful performers like Edward Norton, Amy Ryan, Naomi Watts, and Emma Stone. Perhaps most importantly, we know that it was directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, a brilliant director who one usually does not associate with comedy.
The first teaser for Birdman was released today and having seen it, I’m even more excited to see the actual movie. I say this despite the fact that the trailer doesn’t reveal anything new about the film. However, the trailer makes good use of Crazy and I now really want to know what that marching band is doing on the stage.
It’s time for me to update my way too early Oscar predictions! Every month, based on a combination of buzz, reviews, gut feelings, and random guesses, I attempt to predict which films, directors, and performers will receive nominations in 2015! For the June edition, I look at how my predictions have been effected and changed by the results of the Cannes Film Festival.
Thanks to Cannes, I’m a bit more sure about some of my predictions (in particular, Foxcatcher, Mr. Turner, and Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars). But at the same time, the majority of these predictions remain the result of instinct and random guessing.
Click on the links to check out my predictions for March,April, and May!
And now, here are June’s predictions!
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Whiplash
Wild
Based on its reception at Cannes, I’ve added Mr. Turner to the list of nominees. I’ve also dropped Unbroken from the list, largely because of how aggressively it is currently being hyped by people who have yet to see it. Traditionally, the more intensely an awards contender is hyped during the first half of the year, the more likely it is that the film itself is going to be end up being ignored once the actual nominations are announced. (This is known as the Law of The Butler.)
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman
Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild
I’ve dropped Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) and replaced them with Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher). I’m far more confident that Cannes winner Miller will receive a nomination than Leigh.
Best Actor
Steve Carell in Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton in Birdman
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
The big addition here is Timothy Spall, who I am predicting will be nominated for his Cannes-winning performance in Mr. Turner.
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
Reese Whitherspoon in Wild
Shailene Woodley in The Fault In Our Stars
Based on the charming but slight trailer for Magic In The Moonlight, I have removed Emma Stone from this list. I was tempted to replace her with Hillary Swank but even the positive reviews of The Homesman were curiously muted. So, I ended up going with Jessica Chastain’s performance in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby. I also replaced Michelle Williams with Shailene Woodley who, much like Jennifer Lawrence over the past two years, is currently starring in both a commercially successful franchise film and a critically and commercially acclaimed drama. That said, The Fault In Our Stars may have opened too early in the year to be a legitimate contender.
Best Supporting Actor
James Franco in True Story
Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
Martin Sheen in Trash
J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
I’ve moved Ralph Fiennes back up to Best Actor and I’ve replaced him with James Franco for True Story. That might be wishful thinking on my part because everyone knows that I have a huge crush on James Franco. However, the role — that of a real-life murderer who steals a reporter’s identity — sounds like both a chance of pace for Franco and the type of role that often leads to Oscar recognition. (Just ask Steve Carell…)
Speaking of Steve Carell, he’s not the only actor getting awards-buzz for his performance in Foxcatcher. Channing Tatum has been getting the best reviews of his career. If he’s promoted for a supporting nod, Tatum is probably guaranteed a nomination (and, in all probability, that would doom the chances of Mark Ruffalo). However, Tatum is apparently going to be promoted for best actor and his chances might be a bit more iffy in that race.
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Julianne Moore in Map To The Stars
Vanessa Redgrave in Foxcatcher
Kristen Scott Thomas in Suite francaise
Kristen Stewart in The Clouds of Sils Maria
Unlike a lot of film bloggers, I am not expecting Into the Woods to be a major Oscar contender. (See The Law of The Butler above.) While I was originally predicting that this film would manage to get Meryl Streep her annual nomination, I am now going to go out on a limb and predict that Meryl Streep will not be nominated for anything (other than maybe a Nobel Peace Prize) in 2015. I’m also dropping both Viola Davis and Marcia Gay Harden from my list of predicted nominees and I’m replacing them with three actresses who received a lot of acclaim at Cannes: Julianne Moore for Map To The Stars, Vanessa Redgrave for Foxcatcher, and Kristen Stewart for The Clouds of Sils Maria.
Yes, I know what you’re saying — “Kristen Stewart!?” Personally, if she’s as good as her reviews for The Clouds of Sils Maria seem to indicate, I think she will definitely be nominated. I think it will actually help her case that she’s not exactly an acclaimed actress. Look at it this way — people take it for granted that Meryl Streep is going to give a great performance, so much so that they’ll even make excuses for Meryl’s shrill turn in August: Osage County. When someone like Kristen Stewart shows that she’s capable of more than Twilight, people notice and remember. It’s those performances that inspire people to go, “Oh yeah, she actually can act!” that often lead to Oscar momentum.
And those are my predictions for June. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments section below!
Of course, it’s way too early for me or anyone else to try to predict who and what will be nominated for an Academy Award in 2015. However, that’s not stopping me from trying to do so on a monthly basis!
I’ve dropped Get On Up from my list of best picture nominees, mostly because the film’s trailer is just too bland. As for some of the other films that some of my fellow bloggers are predicting will be contenders: The Grand Budapest Hotel may very well deserve a nomination but it may have come out too early in the year. Gone Girl may be too much of a genre piece while Inherent Vice may not be enough of one. Big Eyes would theoretically benefit from the fact that both Christoph Waltz and Amy Adams would appear to be perfectly cast but, after his last few live action films, I don’t have much faith in Tim Burton. As for Into The Woods, my instinct says that Rob Marshall’s latest musical film adaptation is going to have more in common with Nine than with Chicago.
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman
Angelina Jolie for Unbroken
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game
Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild
No changes here. I nearly dropped Angelina Jolie from the list, just because she’s being so aggressively hyped and early hype always seems to lead to later disappointment. If I had dropped her, I would have replaced her with Christopher Nolan for Interstellar.
Best Actor
Steve Carell in Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton in Birdman
Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes
I dropped Chadwick Boseman from my list of predictions, again based on the blandness of the trailer for Get On Up. I also moved Ralph Fiennes down to best supporting actor. In their place: Joaquin Phoenix and Christoph Waltz.
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
Emma Stone in Magic in the Moonlight
Reese Whitherspoon in Wild
Michelle Williams in Suite francaise
I dropped Jessica Chastain from the list and replaced her with Michelle Williams. Why? There’s really no big reason, beyond the fact that I know more about the role Williams is playing in Suite francaise than I do about the role Chastain is playing in A Most Violent Year. If The Fault In Our Stars was being released in October (as opposed to next month), I would have probably found room for Shailene Woodley on this list.
Best Supporting Actor
Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
Martin Sheen in Trash
J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
I dropped both Robert Duvall and Channing Tatum from this list, largely because I don’t know enough about Duvall’s character in The Judge and because I have a feeling that, when it comes to Foxcatcher, the Academy will either nominate Ruffalo or Tatum but not both of them. My first replacement is Martin Sheen for Trash, largely because Sheen has never been nominated for an Oscar and the role of an activist priest seems to be perfect for him. My second replacement is Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Originally, I was predicting Fiennes would get a best actor nod but — as is explained in this article over at AwardsWatch — a pretty good case can be made for Fiennes getting a supporting nod instead.
Literally minutes before clicking publish on this post, I also decided to remove Christopher Walken and replace him with Ethan Hawke. With three nominations already — one for acting and two for writing — Hawke seems to be popular with Academy voters and he always seems to do his best work for Richard Linklater.
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Viola Davis in Get On Up
Marcia Gay Harden in Magic In The Moonlight
Kristen Scott Thomas in Suite francaise
Meryl Streep in Into The Woods
Two changes: I dropped Amy Ryan and replaced her with Kristen Scott Thomas. Again, it’s mostly just because I know more about the role Scott Thomas is playing than I do about Ryan’s role. I also, shortly before posting this, decided to remove Kiera Knightley and replace her with Patricia Arquette for Boyhood.
So, those are my predictions for this month! Agree? Disagree? Please feel free to let me know in the comments section below.
As I explained in March, I’m going to be doing a monthly series of posts in which I’m going to attempt to predict which 2014 films will be Oscar-nominated.
Obviously, at this point of the year, the nominations listed below are less like predictions and more like random guesses. However, if nothing else, these early predictions will be good for a laugh or two once the actual Oscar race becomes a bit more clear.
Is it ever too early to start trying to predict what films will be nominated for Oscars next year?
In a word … yes.
After all, it’s only March. Grand Budapest Hotel has just now been released in New York and Los Angeles. Whiplash and Boyhood were acclaimed at Sundance. But otherwise, this is the time of year when the studios release films like The Legend of Hercules and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit.
Yes, it’s way too early and, quite frankly, a bit silly to try to predict anything right now.
But, a lot of us are still going to try.
Below you can find my way too early predictions for the 2015 Oscar nominations. Needless to say, these are blind guesses and should not be taken too seriously.
Some may notice that three films that are very popular with other award watchers are not listed on my list of best picture predictions. I have not listed Grand Budapest Hotel because the Academy, in the past, has not exactly been receptive to the films of Wes Anderson. As for David Fincher’s Gone Girl, I’m predicting it will have more in common with his rehash of The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo than The Social Network. Finally, I’m looking forward to seeing Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice but I think the material will be too quirky for the Academy.
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Get On Up
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash
Wild
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman
Angelina Jolie for Unbroken
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game
Jean-Marc Vallee for Wild
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Get On Up
Steve Carell in Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Brendan Gleeson in Calvary
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
Emma Stone in Magic in the Moonlight
Reese Whitherspoon in Wild
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall in The Judge
Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
Christopher Walken in Jersey Boys
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis in Get On Up
Amy Ryan in Birdman
Kristen Scott-Thomas in Suite Francaise
Meryl Streep in Suffragette
Jacki Weaver in Magic in the Moonlight
Those are my predictions for now. Come April, I’ll sit down and make (and post) another collection of blind guesses. If nothing else, these way too early predictions will give everyone something to laugh about when, next year, the actual Oscar nominations are announced.
Hereafter is a very serious film about a very serious topic, death. Following three separate but ultimately connected stories, the film attempts to explore death and the question of what happens after death from three different angles — intellectually, emotionally, and spiritually. I really wanted Hereafter to be a great film. So did the film’s makers, which is precisely why Hereafter fails.
The intellectual consideration of death is represented by the character of Marie (Cecile De France), a French journalist who, at the start of the film, drowns in a tsunami and is, for a few minutes, clinically dead. Before she is eventually revived, she has a classic near-death experience: the bright light, the people waiting to greet her, the whole deal. After this experience, Marie is compelled to investigate whether or not there truly is such a thing as an afterlife. As she does so, Marie finds herself shunned by her resolutely secular friends and grows increasingly distant from her skeptical (and rather condescending) boyfriend.
The emotional response to death is represented in the story of twin brothers, Marcus and Jason (played by Frankie and George McLaren). The two boys live in London with their drug-addicted mother and share a strong (and, to be honest, kinda creepy) bond. Jason, while simply trying to return home with some drugs for his detoxing mother, is roughed up by some bullies and ends up running out into the middle of the street. Naturally, since this is a movie, Jason is hit by a truck as soon as he steps off the curb. Jason is killed and Marcus is taken away by social services and put into a foster home. Marcus continues to carry Jason’s cap with him and soon starts tracking down local English psychics in an attempt to talk to his brother again.
Finally, the spiritual aspect is detailed in the film’s most interesting story. This story features Matt Damon as George Lonegan, a psychic who can speak with the dead. After years of being a minor celebrity, George burned out and went into a self-imposed exile. He now works at a factory while his brother (Jay Mohr, who looks incredibly puffy in this movie) keeps trying to find ways to convince George to get back into the business of talking to dead for fun and profit. After George reluctantly gives a reading to Richard Kind, he finds himself being dragged back into his old life.
A lot of viewers and critics have compared Hereafter to Alejandro González Iñárritu’s 2006 masterpiece, Babel. Both films follow three separate but connecting stories and both films are concerned with the theme of death and how it connects us all. As well, Babel featured Brad Pitt in a serious role and Hereafter features Matt Damon. The main difference, however, is that Babel was a great film but Hereafter is basically an uneven mess.
Whereas Babel featured three strong stories, Hereafter features 1 compelling story (that would be Damon’s) which is compelling solely because Matt Damon is a talented enough actor that he can apparently perform miracles. He’s probably about as likable as he’s ever been in the role of George but he also wisely plays the role as being just a little bit off. Even though the film makes the mistake of never really going into the details of just what exactly caused George to give up being a psychic, Damon is so good in the role that you’re willing to take him at his word that he had a good reason. Probably the highlight of the film (and one of the few sections to really inspire any sort of real emotional response) is an extended sequence where Damon befriends and the manages to alienate an insecure, single woman played by Bryce Dallas Howard. Damon and Howard have a scene that involves eating while blind-folded that manages to be both powerfully erotic and wonderfully romantic at the same time. If the entire film had been about them, Hereafter would have been a much better movie.
Unfortunately, we’ve got to slog through two other stories.
Cecile La France gives an excellent performance as Marie and the opening tsunami scene is truly terrifying. For someone like me, who cannot swim and risks having a panic attack if she even stands near the deep end of a swimming pool, the tsunami scene was almost impossible to watch. I had to put my hands in front of my eyes and watch the scene through my fingers. However, once she drowns, Marie sees a vision of the afterlife that — as a harbinger of things to come — is rather dull. I mean, with everything that can supposedly be done in movies today, the best that Hereafter can give us is a bland white light. Once Marie returns to Paris and starts her investigation, La France remains a sympathetic presence and the film actually does a pretty good job of showing just how condescending most supposedly “liberal” men are whenever a woman starts to stray from the established orthodoxy. But, unfortunately, her story is just never that interesting. Marie decides to write a book about the afterlife. As a writer myself, I have to say that there is nothing more boring than watching someone else write.
As for Marcus, I was shocked just how little I cared about him or his attempts to contact his brother. I come from a very close family and I have a very strong bond with all three of my sisters and, among them, I am notorious for crying at any movie that deals with that sort of sibling bonding. Yet I sat through the saga of Marcus and Jason without shedding a tear and I felt terrible about it. I really wanted to cry. I really wanted to have some sort of emotional response to the story but I just never believed it. I hate to say this but honestly, a lot of this was due to the fact that the McLaren twins are such bad actors. Director Clint Eastwood has said that he specifically cast them because they weren’t professional actors and therefore, they wouldn’t introduce any false “sentimentality” into the mix. But dammit, it was a sentimental story. Sentiment is not necessarily a bad thing and just because something is sentimental, that doesn’t make it false.
So, what exactly went wrong with Hereafter? The film opens strongly with a terrifying tsunami and the final 30 minutes are also undeniably touching (if also a bit contrived). It’s everything that happens in between those two points that ruins Hereafter. Director Eastwood, obviously looking to avoid that dreaded curse of being sentimental, keeps the whole film very low-key and realistic. Other than the opening tsunami, there are no big wow moments but to be honest, isn’t that what movies are for? If you’re going to make a movie that specifically shuns the wow moment, you better have something compelling (a perfect script or an entire cast giving a compelling performance as opposed to just a handful of them) to take its place. Hereafter doesn’t and, as a result, the movie drags. This, honestly, has got to be one of the slowest, most boring movies I’ve ever seen. If director Eastwood’s westerns and actions films can all be seen as homages to Sergio Leone and Don Siegel, I think Hereafter must be an homage to some of Andy Warhol’s intentionally dull films. Whereas Warhol, at the very least, gave us Joe Dallesandro to look at, Eastwood gives us Jay Mohr. It’s not a fair trade.
I don’t know how much of Hereafter should be blamed on Eastwood and how much should be blamed on the script written by Peter Morgan. Here’s a quote from Morgan that appeared in The Hollywood Reporter:
“It’s quite spiritual material, and quite romantic, too. It’s the sort of piece that’s not easy to describe and in the hands of different filmmakers could end up as wildly different films. Quite unlike some of my other material, which I think there were only certain ways that you could shoot it. It’s really not just another boring Hollywood movie with the same old boring Hollywood actors, although I see the point that the public and sick of paying $10.00 to see a movie with same old faces and the same gramma of story telling.”
And to that, all I can say is “Shut up, Peter Morgan!”
This is not spiritual material as much as it’s just a bunch of vaguely New Age platitudes being delivered by a mainstream screenwriter who apparently doesn’t have the guts to come down either firmly for or against an afterlife. This is the type of feel-good BS that leads to thousands of people every year giving up their life savings to some fraud who claims he can deliver messages from beyond. Morgan’s script goes out of its way not to actually define the afterlife. Is it heaven or is it Hell? Is there a God? Do the worthy go to Heaven? Are souls saved? Or are they just ghosts who are waiting for us to be willing to let them go? These are all questions that would have been considered by a good film but Hereafter doesn’t consider them. Oh, don’t get me wrong. It pretends to bring them up but only so the movie can shrug and go, “I guess nobody knows.” And to that I say, either take a position or don’t expect everyone else to pay money just to listen to you duck the question because you’re too scared of alienating mainstream critics or audiences.
(Myself, I do believe that those who love us are always with us in some way even if I don’t believe in a literal afterlife. And while I know that answer might seem vague, you should also consider that I’m not the one spending millions of dollars to make a movie celebrating that vagueness.)
Morgan’s script also make its a point to incorporate real-life events into his contrived narrative. As a result, the London Subway bombings and the Thailand Tsunami are both used as convenient plot points in much the same way that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button used Hurricane Katrina. I felt it was ghoulish when Button did it and, the more I think about it, it’s equally ghoulish in Hereafter. It’s hard not to feel that the film’s saying, “Too bad all those real people died but what’s important is how these events impacted the lives of a bunch of fictional characters.”
Hereafter’s main problem is that it simply tries too hard to be great. You get the feeling that every scene and line has been calculated to make you go, “Wow, what genius!” As a result, even the scenes that work still somehow feel very dishonest. The end result is a very insincere film about some very sincere concerns.