Lisa’s Too Early Oscar Predictions for May!


oscar trailer kitties

Well, here we are!  The year is nearly halfway over and the Oscar picture … well, it’s really not that clear yet.  The Cannes Film Festival just opened and maybe that will help clear up the picture a bit.  Or maybe not.

Anyway, here are my early Oscar for predictions for May.  (In previous months, my Oscar predictions were “way too early.”  But now that we’re 5 months into 2015, the “way” can be dropped.  They’re just “too early” now.)  As is usual for any predictions made at this time of the year, these are mostly guesses, some random and some educated.  Be sure to check my predictions for January, February, March, and April as well!

(I know that rumor has it that the Academy is going to go back to only nominating five films this year.  However, I’m going to continue to make ten predictions because that’s more fun for an obsessive list maker like me.)

Last Dinosaur

Best Picture

Black Mass

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

Crimson Peak

The Danish Girl

The Good Dinosaur

Icon

In the Heart of the Sea

The Sea of Trees

Ben Foster in Icon

Best Actor

Johnny Depp in Black Mass

Michael Fassebender in Steve Jobs

Ben Foster in Icon

Eddie Redmanye in The Danish Girl

Jason Segel in The End of the Tour

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Carol

Jennifer Lawrence in Joy

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Meryl Streep in Ricki and the Flash

Lilly Tomlin in Grandma

idris-elba-beasts-of-no-nation1

Best Supporting Actor

Jim Broadbent in Brooklyn

Albert Brooks in Concussion

Joel Edgerton in Black Mass

Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation

Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight

meryl1-466733

Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain in Crimson Peak

Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight

Seinna Miller in Black Mass

Parker Posey in Irrational Man

Meryl Streep in Suffragette

RonHowardJay-Z

Best Director

Guillermo Del Toro for Crimson Peak

Stephen Fears for Icon

Todd Haynes for Carol

Ron Howard for In The Heart of the Sea

Gus Van Sant for The Sea of Trees

Oscars

Lisa’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Best Picture

Black Mass

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

The End of the Tour

Grandma

The Hateful Eight

In The Heart of the Sea

The Revenant

The Walk

Woman in Gold

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston in Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

Michael Fassebender in Steve Jobs

Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies

Jason Segel in The End of the Tour

Best Actress

Blythe Danner in I’ll See You In My Dreams

Jennifer Lawrence in Joy

Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin in Grandma

Best Supporting Actor

Jim Broadbent in Brooklyn

Albert Brooks in Concussion

Paul Dano in Love and Mercy

Tom Hardy in The Revenant

Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actress

Julia Garner in Grandma

Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight

Kristin Scott Thomas in Suite Francaise

Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria

Meryl Steeep in Suffragette

Best Director

John Crowley for Brooklyn

Ron Howard for In The Heart of the Sea

James Ponsoldt for The End of the Tour

Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies

Robert Zemeckis for The Walk

Lisa’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions for March


The-Walk-movie-poster

Best Picture

Black Mass

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

The End of the Tour

Grandma

The Hateful Eight

In The Heart of the Sea

The Revenant

The Walk

Woman in Gold

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston in Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

Michael Fassebender in Steve Jobs

Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies

Jason Segel in The End of the Tour

Best Actress

Blythe Danner in I’ll See You In My Dreams

Jennifer Lawrence in Joy

Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin in Grandma

Best Supporting Actor

Jim Broadbent in Brooklyn

Albert Brooks in Concussion

Paul Dano in Love and Mercy

Tom Hardy in The Revenant

Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actress

Julia Garner in Grandma

Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight

Kristin Scott Thomas in Suite Francaise

Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria

Meryl Steeep in Suffragette

Best Director

John Crowley for Brooklyn

Ron Howard for In The Heart of the Sea

James Ponsoldt for The End of the Tour

Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies

Robert Zemeckis for The Walk

My Extremely Late Review of The 87th Oscars


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This did not happen at the Oscars last night.

I really don’t know what’s wrong with me.

As I’ve made it clear many times in the past, I basically build my year around the Oscars.   I always get together with my friends and family and I force them to watch the entire ceremony with me.  Wherever I’ve lived, the Oscars have always been a national holiday.

As with any holiday, there are traditions.  To cite just one example, every year there comes the moment when I suddenly realize that Meryl Streep looks exactly like this stuck-up rich woman from Highland Park who, back in 2oo1, was so rude to my mom that she made her cry and that’s why I’ve never liked Meryl as much as some of my fellow movie bloggers.  And, of course, once I realize that, I have to tell the story to everyone else in the room.  Part of the tradition is to continue telling the story even after everyone says, “We’ve heard this story a million times, Lisa.”

Another part of the tradition is to start out with hope that something unexpected will happen.  “Oh my God,” I’ll say at some point, “maybe such-and-such movie is going to pull an upset!”  Then, an hour later, comes the tradition of realizing that there aren’t going to be any upsets and everything’s going to play out the exact way that everyone said it would.

One of the newer traditions is that, after every Oscar ceremony, I write a review and I post it here on Through the Shattered Lens. But, somehow, this year, I nearly forgot about that tradition.  Perhaps it’s because we got hit by a lot of sleet and ice last night and, as a result, I could neither go to work nor go dancing tonight.  And, don’t get me wrong,  I’ve had a lot of fun hanging around the house and being lazy today.  But it was still a pretty big change from my usual routine.  It threw me off and perhaps that’s why I’m only now getting around to reviewing the Oscar ceremony.

Then again, it could just be that last night’s ceremony was not that interesting.  I thought that Neil Patrick Harris was a good host but, in retrospect, that has more to do with his own natural charisma of a performer than with anything he actually did.  I liked his little bit about getting Octavia Spencer to keep an eye on his predictions but that was mostly because Octavia herself is such a good performer.  (Octavia is also an Oscar winner who has the talent to do a lot more than just playing a supporting role on a TV show.)

I loved Margot Robbie’s dress.  But I have to say that it really bothered me that there weren’t any true fashion disasters to be seen last night.  That’s part of the fun of the Oscars, spotting the celebs that can’t dress themselves.  When everyone looks good, the show’s a lot less interesting.

As far as the acceptance speeches were concerned, some of them were good.  But I have to admit that I always cringe a little when I see a celeb at an awards show give a politically charged speech because, as committed as they may be, they never seem to be quite sincere.  Instead, they come across as if they’re just playing another role.  What I really wish is that, instead of Bustle and Jezebel posting a hundred articles about how much Meryl Streep loved Patricia Arquette’s speech on incoming inequality, those same media outlets would actually give as much attention to the women who actually have to deal with the issue on a daily basis.  My mom had to raise four headstrong daughters on her own.  She knew more about the sad reality of income inequality than Meryl Streep ever will.  But nobody’s ever going to illustrate a story on income inequality with an animated gif of a woman, like my mom, working hard at multiple jobs, getting paid less than her male coworkers, coming home exhausted, and still managing to be there for her daughters.  Instead, we’ll just get a hundred memes of Meryl shouting “Yes,” all used to illustrate stories that insist it was a “perfect” moment.

(Because what better symbol for the fight against wage inequality than a rich white woman at an awards show?)

My question to Hollywood political activists is this: Are you actually going to try to change things or are you just going to pat yourself on the back for giving a speech at an awards show?  Because you people have given a lot of speeches and made a lot of politically-themed movies but the problems are still here.

As far as the awards themselves — I have to admit that I was not as big a fan of Birdman as some people were.  For a few minutes, I was excited because I thought that Whiplash might pull an upset.  But no, in the end, Birdman won.  I liked Alejandro Inarritu’s previous Oscar-nominated film, Babel.  But, beyond respecting it as a technical achievement, Birdman just didn’t do much for me and neither did Inarritu’s acceptance speech.

But you know who really didn’t do anything for me?

Sean Penn.

First off, if you’re going to be presenting best picture, try to take a shower before you go out on stage.  Don’t show up looking like you’re covered in a week’s worth of grime.  Looking at Sean Penn last night, I could only imagine that he probably reeked of stale cigarettes and strong body odor.  Seriously, if the Academy needed someone unwashed to hand out the biggest award of the night, they could have followed the lead of the Golden Globes and called Johnny Depp.

And then, when Penn opened the envelope, he couldn’t just announce that Birdman had won.  Instead, he had to make a joke about Inarritu’s green card.  Inarritu is the first Mexican to direct a best picture winner and Sean Penn, a man who considers himself to be enough of an expert on South America that he actually think he has the right to tell the people of Venezuela how to vote, just had to make that green card joke.  My mom was half-Spanish and had to endure her share of green card jokes (despite being a native-born American citizen).  I know the pain that jokes like that caused her and, when Sean Penn made that joke, it was a slap in the face to Latinos everywhere.  Shame on you, Sean Penn.

As far as pendejos like Sean Penn are concerned — ¡Estoy hasta el coño!

As far as Lady Gaga’s Sound of Music tribute was concerned … well, let’s just be honest.  Lady Gaga was great but The Sound of Music is probably one of the most undeserving best picture winners ever.  The Oscar should have gone to either Darling or Doctor Zhivago.

But, on a happier note, these Oscars also allowed me to make my E! debut!  Check out this screen shot:

B-e7UMLIUAA9a7VSo, the 87th Academy Awards are over with.  Here’s hoping the 88th Academy Awards are a bit more fun!

Here’s What Won At The Oscars Last Night!


Really?

Really?

Because of bad weather, I wasn’t able to post the winners last night.  But, now it’s morning and all of the rain has turned to ice and the internet is working again!

So, here’s what won at the Oscars last night.

Best Picture: Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance

Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman or How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Best Actress: Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Best Original Screenplay: Birdman or What We Talk About When Talk About Love

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game

Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6

Best Documentary Feature: CitizenFour

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida

Best Cinematography: Birdman based on the novel Push by Sapphire 

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing: Whiplash

Beat Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song: “Glory” from Selma

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar

Best Animated Short: Feast

Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call

Best Documentary Short Film: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Lisa’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For February


Brooklyn

Well, tonight’s the night!  Soon, we will know which 2014 films have won Oscars.

And, as soon as the ceremony ends, it will be time to start speculating about which 2015 films will be nominated next year!  I am sharing and updating my predictions on a monthly basis and below you’ll find my latest predictions.  You can read my predictions for January by clicking here.

Some of these films and performers — like End of the Tour and Grandma — were acclaimed at Sundance.  (The recently concluded Berlin Film Festival, on the other hand, mostly just served to confirm that Knight of Cups and Queen of the Desert will probably not be contenders.)  Kristen Stewart recently won a Cesar Award for Clouds of Sils Maria.  Otherwise, the majority of predictions below are the results of my own wild guesses.

A year from now, we’ll probably look back at these predictions and laugh.

Best Picture

Black Mass

Brooklyn

The End of the Tour

Grandma

The Hateful Eight

In The Heart of the Sea

The Revenant

St. James Place

The Walk

Woman in Gold

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston in Trumbo

Matt Damon in The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

Michael Fassebender in Steve Jobs

Jason Segel in The End of the Tour

Best Actress

Blythe Danner in I’ll See You In My Dreams

Jennifer Lawrence in Joy

Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin in Grandma

Best Supporting Actor

Jim Broadbent in Brooklyn

Albert Brooks in Concussion

Paul Dano in Love and Mercy

Tom Hardy in The Revenant

Kurt Russell in The Hateful Eight

Best Supporting Actress

Julia Garner in Grandma

Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight

Kristin Scott Thomas in Suite Francaise

Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria

Meryl Steeep in Suffragette

Best Director

John Crowley for Brooklyn

Ron Howard for In The Heart of the Sea

James Ponsoldt for The End of the Tour

Steven Spielberg for St. James Place

Robert Zemeckis for The Walk

Clouds of Sils Maria

Lisa Tries To Predict The Oscars!


Oscars

Well, it’s almost here!

Tomorrow night, the Oscars will be handed out!  Now, I have to admit that, despite all of the time that I spent keeping up with all of the guild awards and the critics award and all the other precursors, I kinda lost interest in the Oscar race after the actual nominations were announced.  I took one look at Jeff Wells claiming to be solely responsible for the success of Birdman and Sasha Stone going on and on about Selma and Ryan Adams doing whatever the Hell it is that he supposedly does over at Awards Daily and I just found myself saying, “Fuck it, who cares?”

Seriously, 2015 will be remembered as the year that Oscar punditry jumped the shark.  Hopefully, within the next few years, new voices will emerge and we’ll be spared from having to deal with Jeff Wells, Sasha Stone, and all the rest.

The Oscar commentary this year has been so negative and so toxic and so predictably strident and so tediously bitter that I did get a little bit burned out.  It just hasn’t been as much fun this year.  When, earlier this week, I was reminded that the Oscars were this Sunday, I have to admit that I was taken a little bit by surprise.  For some reason, I had gotten into my head that the Oscars were next week.

But anyway, they’re not next week.  They’re tomorrow and that means that it is now time for me to try to predict who and what will win tomorrow night.  A lot of people are saying that this is the closest Oscar race in years.  But you know what?  They say that every year.

Remember how there were going to be a lot of upsets last year?

And, in the end, exactly what everyone thought would win did win.

I imagine the same thing will happen this year.

Here are my predictions!  I will be listing both what I think will win and what I think should win.

Need to kill some time?  Look through all the posts since November and count up how many times this picture has appeared on the site!

Need to kill some time? Look through all the posts since November and count up how many times this picture has appeared on the site!

Best Picture: 

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

Best Director:

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Should Win: Michael Keaton for Birdman

Best Actress

Will Win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

Should Win: Reese Witherspoon for Wild

Best Supporting Actor

Will and Should Win: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress

Will and Should Win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will and Should Win: Whiplash

Best Animated Feature:

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: Big Hero 6

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Leviathan

Should Win: Ida

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: CitizenFour

Should Win: Finding Vivian Maier

Best Documentary Short Subject:

Will Win (random guess): Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should Win: ???

Best Live Action Short Film:

Will Win (random guess): The Phone Call

Should Win: ???

Best Animated Short Film:

Will and Should Win: My Moulton

Best Original Score:

Will and Should Win: The Theory of Everything

Best Original Song:

Will Win: “Glory” from Selma

Should Win: “Hooray for Everything” from The Lego Movie

Best Sound Editing

Will and Should Win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: Whiplash

Best Production Design

Will and Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Unbroken

Should Win: Ida

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Foxcatcher

Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Costume Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Inherent Vice

Best Film Editing

Will and Should Win: Boyhood

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Interstellar

Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Guardians of the Galaxy

Well, those are my predictions!  Will I be right or will I be wrong?  We’ll find out tomorrow!

Birdman wins at the DGA!


Need to kill some time?  Look through all the posts since November and count up how many times this picture has appeared on the site!

For those of you following the Oscar race, Birdman‘s director, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, won the Director’s Guild Award last night.  Over the past few weeks, Birdman has pretty much swept the guild awards, also winning the PGA and the SAG awards.

(Interestingly enough, Michael Keaton was not named Best Actor at SAG.  That award went to Eddie Redmayne for The Theory Of Everything.)

So, it would appear that — as far as 2014 was concerned — Boyhood was the critics favorite and Birdman was the industry’s favorite.  And, since it’s the industry who votes on the Oscars, Birdman has to be considered the Oscar front-runner as well.  For all the talk about how the Oscar race is wide-open this year, it’s actually proving to be pretty predictable.

(Unless, of course, those rumors of a sudden surge for American Sniper prove to be true…)

Myself, I prefer Boyhood to Birdman and I think that future film students will agree with me.  But, I can understand why the industry would embrace Birdman.  After all, it’s about an artist who is unfairly targeted by a vindictive critic and who is still suffering because he was forced to appear in a mindless blockbuster.  I imagine that’s the way that a lot of Academy voters probably think of themselves.  There’s really not much going on underneath the surface of Birdman but never doubt the value of appealing to the industry’s ego.

michael-keaton-birdman

Lisa’s Way, Way, Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For January!


James Franco OMG

Obviously, it’s way too early to start speculating about who and what will receive Oscar nominations in 2016.  I mean, that would be crazy, right?

So, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.  Just like last year, I’m going take a monthly wild guess and try to predict what might be nominated.  Next year, around this time, we’ll look at the predictions below and probably laugh.

Since the year just started, these predictions should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.  Needless to say, these predictions are heavily orientated towards what played at Sundance this week and also towards films that were directed by the usual suspects.  For instance, I know next to nothing about St. James Place but it stars Tom Hanks and it was directed by Steven Spielberg and, when you’re guessing this early in the year, that’s enough to earn it a listing.

 (And before you laugh too much at how influenced this list was by Sundance, consider that the campaigns for both Boyhood and Whiplash started at Sundance.)

Of course, for all I know, the release of some of these films might be delayed, much as how Foxcatcher was moved from 2013 t0 2014.

With all that in mind, here are my way, way, way too early Oscar predictions for January!

Best Picture

Brooklyn

Concussion

The End of the Tour

Grandma

The Hateful Eight

In the Heart of the Sea

The Martian

The Revenant

St. James Place

The Walk

Best Actor

Matt Damon in The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

James Franco in I Am Michael

Tom Hanks in St. James Place

Jason Segel in The End of The Tour

Best Actress

Juliette Binoche in Clouds of Sils Maria

Blythe Danner in I’ll See You In My Dreams

Jennifer Lawrence in Joy

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Lily Tomlin in Grandma

Best Supporting Actor

Albert Brooks in Concussion

Bruce Dern in The Hateful Eight

Jesse Eisenberg in The End of the Tour

Sam Elliott in Grandma

Tom Hardy in The Revenant

Best Supporting Actress

Julia Garner in Grandma

Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight

Kristin Scott Thomas in Suite Francaise

Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria

Meryl Streep in Suffragette 

Best Director

John Crowley for Brooklyn

Ron Howard for In The Heart of the Sea

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revanant

Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight

Robert Zemeckis for The Walk

The Walk

Song of the Day: Untitled Self-Portrait (a.k.a. Batman’s Song) (performed by Will Arnett)


The_Lego_Movie_poster

I don’t know about you but I’m still pretty angry about what happened yesterday when the Oscar nominations were announced.  Seriously, how could The LEGO Movie not be nominated for best animated film?  It’s almost as if the Academy is prejudiced against plastic toys.

*Le sigh*

So, normally, when I talk about The LEGO Movie, I find an excuse to include the video for Everything is Awesome.  

But you know what?

EVERYTHING IS NOT AWESOME!

And today’s song of the day — which is also taken from The LEGO Movie — reflects that point.  As performed by Will Arnett, here’s Batman’s Song (a.k.a. Untitled Self-Portrait.)

All together now…

DARKNESS….