Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For July


Well, it’s that time of the month again!  Here are my Oscar predictions for July!

Probably the biggest development in the race is that both Barbie and Oppenheimer opened with a bang and established themselves as bona fide contenders, along with Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.  I think people were expecting that as far as Oppenheimer was concerned whereas the critical acclaim (and criticism) received by Barbie was a bit more of a surprise.  At this point, the debate over whether or not Barbie has a message can only work to the film’s advantage.  Working against it is the same thing that kept the Lego movies from showing up in the Best Animated Feature category.  For all the discussion about what Barbie means, there’s still the risk of certain members of the Academy viewing it as being an extended commercial.  Still, for now, I think both films have to be considered strong contenders.

(What about Sound of Freedom? some may be asking.  Regardless of the film’s box office success and what other qualities the film may or may nor have, there’s no way the Academy is going to consider a film about and starring an outspoken Trump supporter.)

If there’s anything that could truly upend the Oscar race, it’s how the studios are going to deal with the SAG/AFTRA strike.  For instance, there’s been speculation that some contenders — like The Color Purple — will be pushed back until the strike is settled so that their casts will be able to do publicity for them.  It’s totally possible that some of the big contenders that we’re expecting to see in November and December could instead be pushed back to 2024.  We’ll see what happens.

Below are my predictions for July.  Be sure to also check out my predictions for March and April and May and June!!

Best Picture 

Air

Barbie

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Greta Gerwig for Barbie

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Greta Lee in Past Lives

Helen Mirren in Golda

Natalie Portman in May December

Margot Robbie in Barbie

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr. in Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling in Barbie

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Julianne Moore in May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For June


It’s time for my Oscar predictions for June!

With the year almost halfway over, the Oscar race still feels pretty fluid, though I think things will come a bit more into focus next month with the release of Oppenheimer and Barbie.  Obviously, Oppenheimer feels more like an Oscar picture than Barbie but you never know what could happen.  The Academy appears to really like Greta Gerwig.  Of course, both of those film have received so much hype that the true test could be just living up to expectations.  Killers of the Flower Moon manage to pass that test at Cannes and, as a result, it’s the current Oscar front runner.

Below are my predictions for June.  Be sure to also check out my predictions for March and April and May!

Best Picture

Air

Barbie

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Blitz Bazawule for The Color Purple

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Emily Blunt in Pain Hustlers

Greta Lee in Past Lives

Natalie Portman in May December

Margot Robbie in Barbie

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling in Barbie

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis in Air

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Julianne Moore in May/December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For May


Here are my Oscar predictions for May!

Well, for once, Cannes has helped the Oscar picture to come into focus.  The triumphant premiere of Killers of the Flower Moon not only cemented the film’s status as an early front runner but it also confirmed that Leonardo DiCaprio will be in the running for Best Actor and Lily Gladstone for either Best Actress or Supporting Actress.  It also sound like Robert De Niro could receive another nomination.  (Despite the importance of his role, Jesse Plemons’s screen time is apparently limited.)

The other Oscar contender to come out of Cannes would appear to be Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest.  There is some talk that the film itself could be a bit too chilly for the Academy and, being familiar with Glazer’s work, that would not necessarily surprise me.  But, for now, The Zone of Interest is among my predicated Best Picture nominee.  I’m also going to continue to predict that Oppenheimer will be nominated and, after seeing the trailer, I’m a bit more confident that The Color Purple will be nominated as well.  And I’m still going to toss in Barbie because why not?

That said, the year isn’t even halfway over yet and there’s a lot of films to come.  It’s entirely possible that the majority of the best picture nominees are going to be films that haven’t even shown up on anyone’s radar yet.

Below are my predictions for May.  Be sure to also check out my predictions for March and April!

Best Picture

Air

Barbie

The Color Purple

Dune: Part Two

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Blitz Bazawule for The Color Purple

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Andre Holland in The Actor

Best Actress

Emily Blunt in Pain Brokers

Greta Lee in Past Lives

Natalie Portman in May December

Margot Robbie in Barbie

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

Ryan Gosling in Barbie

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis in Air

Jodie Foster in Nyad

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Here’s What Won At Cannes


And so, another Cannes film festival has come to a close!  Despite my initial predictions and some generally respectful reviews, Ken Loach did not win a third Palme d’Or for The Old Oak so I’m happy about that.  Here’s what did win:

COMPETITION

Palme d’Or: “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet

Grand Prix: “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer

Director: Tran Anh Hung, “The Pot au Feu”

Actor: Kōji Yakusho, “Perfect Days”

Actress: Merve Dizdar, “About Dry Grasses”

Jury Prize: “Fallen Leaves,” Aki Kaurismaki

Screenplay: Sakamoto Yûji, “Monster”

OTHER PRIZES

Camera d’Or: “Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell,” Thien An Pham

Short Films Palme d’Or: “27,” Flóra Anna Buda.

Short Films Special Mention: “Fár,” Gunnur Martinsdóttir Schlüter

Queer Palm: “Monster”

UN CERTAIN REGARD

Un Certain Regard Award: “How to Have Sex,” Molly Manning Walker

Jury Prize: Asmae El Moudir, “Hounds”

Best Director Prize: “The Mother of All Lies,” Asmae El Moudir

Freedom Prize: “Goodbye Julia,” Mohamed Kordofani

Ensemble Prize: “The Buriti Flower,” cast and crew

New Voice Prize: “Omen,” Baloji

DIRECTORS’ FORTNIGHT

Europa Cinemas Label: “Creatura,” Elena Martín

Society of Dramatic Authors and Composers Prize: “A Prince,” Pierre Creton

CRITICS’ WEEK

Grand Prize: “Tiger Stripes,” Amanda Nell Eu

French Touch Prize: “It’s raining in the house,” Paloma Sermon-Daï

GAN Foundation Award for Distribution: Pyramide Films, “Inshallah a boy”

Louis Roederer Foundation Rising Star Award: Jovan Ginić, “Lost Country”

As far as the Oscars are concerned, I think the big winner at Cannes was Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.  Yes, it was screened out of competition but the response to the film was so enthusiastic that it pretty much confirmed that, for now, it’s the Oscar front runner.  If nothing else, the response temporarily silenced those who have been insisting that Killers of the Flower Moon would be a disappointment.  (Bizarrely, there’s a whole generation of film commentators who seem to be obsessed with claiming that Scorsese is somehow overrated.  I’d hate to think this is all about something as petty as Scorsese’s criticism of the Marvel films but then again, we live in petty times.)  I would also keep an eye on Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, which many expected would win the Palme but which had to settle for the jury prize.  From what I’ve read, Glazer’s film sounds like it could be an Oscar contender.

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Here are my Oscar predictions for April!  As always, when it’s this early in the year, I recommend taking all of these with a grain of salt.  At this point, the only thing that anyone knows for sure is that it’s safe to remove Jonathan Majors and Magazine Dreams from any list of predictions.

Check out my predictions for March by clicking here!

Best Picture

The Actor

Barbie

The Color Purple

Dumb Money

Dune: Part Two

Flint Strong

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Rustin

Best Director

Blitz Bazawule for The Color Purple

Rachel Morrison for Flint Strong

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Andre Holland in The Actor

Anthony Hopkins in Freud’s Last Session

Best Actress

Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple

Emily Blunt in Pain Brokers

Greta Lee in Past Lives

Margot Robbie in Barbie

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Brian Tyree Henry in Flint Strong

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis in Air

Jodie Foster in Nyad

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Here’s What’s Coming To The 2023 Cannes Film Festival


The initial line-up for the 2023 Cannes Film Festival was announced today.  Usually, films are added (and occasionally even withdrawn) after the initial announcement so this list will probably be added to in the days and weeks to come:

COMPETITION:

Club Zero, Jessica Hausner
Asteroid City, Wes Anderson
The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer
Fallen Leaves, Aki Kaurismaki
Les Filles D’Olfa (Four Daughters), Kaouther Ben Hania
Anatomie D’une Chute, Justine Triet
Monster, Kore-eda Hirokazu
Il Sol Dell’Avvenire, Nanni Moretti,
La Chimera, Alice Rohrwacher,
About Dry Grasses, Nuri Bilge Ceylan,
L’Ete Dernier, Catherine Breillat,
The Passion of Dodin Bouffant, Tran Anh Hung,
Rapito, Marco Bellocchio,
May December, Todd Haynes,
Firebrand, Karim Ainouz,
The Old Oak, Ken Loach,
Perfect Days, Wim Wenders,
Banel Et Adama, Ramata-Toulaye Sy,
Jeunesse, Wang Bing,

OUT OF COMPETITION:

Killers of the Flower Moon, Martin Scorsese
The Idol, Sam Levinson
Cobweb, Kim Jee-woon
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, James Mangold
Jeanne du Barry, Maiwenn

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS:

Omar la Fraise, Elias Belkeddar
Kennedy,” Anurag Kashyap
Acide, Just Philippot

SPECIAL SCREENINGS:

Retratos Fantasmas (Pictures of Ghosts), Kleber Mendonca Filho
Anselm, Wim Wenders
Occupied City, Steve McQueen
Man in Black, Wang Bing

CANNES PREMIERE:

Le Temps D’Aimer, Katell Quillevere,
Cerrar Los Ojos, Victor Erice,
Bonnard, Pierre et Marthe, Martin Provost,
Kubi, Takeshi Kitano

For Oscar watchers, the big news is probably that both Asteroid City and Killers of The Flower Moon will be premiering at Cannes.  Asteroid City is the latest from Wes Anderson and, to be honest, I have my doubts about it as an Oscar contender.  The trailer indicates that it’s very, very quirky.  While Anderson did receive some Oscar recognition for Grand Budapest Hotel, a good deal of that film’s success was due to Ralph Fiennes’s lead performance.  Fieness kept Grand Budapest rooted in a stylized reality.  I’m not sure if anyone in the cast of Asteroid City is going to perform the same duty.  If Asteroid City is going to become an Oscar contender, a good showing at Cannes would definitely help.

As for Killers of the Flower Moon, it’s being shown out of competition.  I can understand the logic.  With all of the high expectations that come along with being Martin Scorsese’s latest film (as well as being the first Scorsese film to feature both De Niro and Di Caprio), it’s best not to run the risk of being snubbed by the unpredictable Cannes jury.  The last thing anyone wants is for the narrative to shift from “sure-fire contender” to “late career disappointment.”

The Cannes Film Festival runs from May 16th to May 27th!

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For March


Now that the 2022 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2023 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  I mean, Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence.  For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner.  Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews.  Audiences stayed away.  The film ended up with one technical nomination.

My point is that no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

So, you may be asking, how did I come up with the nominees below?  For the most part, I guessed.  A few of them I went with because of the people who made the film.  Though shooting has wrapped, Ferrari might not even be released this year but it’s a Michael Mann film that stars Adam Driver so, for now, I have to include it.  Of course, I had to include Scorsese and Killers of the Flower Moon.  Asteroid City is there because the Academy embraced Wes Anderson once and it could always happen again.  Fair Play and Magazine Dreams‘s Jonathan Majors are listed because the Sundance Film Festival is still a recent memory.  Maestro is there because the Academy seems like to Bradley Cooper.  Dune Part Two and Oppenheimer are there because Film Twitter is convinced that they will be.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

Asteroid City

The Color Purple

Dune Part Two

Fair Play

Ferrari

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Rustin

Best Director

Chloe Domont for Fair Play

Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Jonathan Majors in Magazine Dreams

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Emily Blunt in Pain Hustlers

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Julia Roberts in Leave the World Behind

Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali in Leave The World Behind

Willem DaFoe in Poor Things

Matt Damon in Oppenheimer

Ethan Hawke in Strange Way Of Life

Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Tantoo Cardinal in Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson in The Color Purple

Florence Pugh in Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton in Asteroid City

Congratulations! You Have Survived Another Oscar Sunday!


That’s it!  That’s a wrap!  All that is left to do is to cue up all of our applause GIFs:

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We hope everyone has enjoyed Oscar Sunday!

shia

Now that the Oscars are over with, it’s time to start a new year of entertainment!  Thank you everyone for reading us over the course of 2022 and the first three months of 2023!

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Now, let’s make 2023 the best year ever as we continue to celebrate the 13th year of the Shattered Lens!

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Love you!

A Few Thoughts On The 95th Oscar Ceremony


This year’s Oscar ceremony was all about the Slap.

Don’t get me wrong.  No one got slapped during the ceremony.  No one got yelled at.  There wasn’t any major controversy at all, beyond the question of whether Everything Everywhere All At Once actually deserved all of those Oscars.  Most of the awards speeches were nice.  Ke Huy Quan was a highlight, calling his story “an American dream.”  Much as when Gary Oldman praised America upon winning his Oscar for Best Actor, you could tell the audience at the ceremony wasn’t sure how to react to unironic praise of America but I can promise you that his speech touched the hearts of almost everyone watching.  Compared to previous ceremonies, there wasn’t a lot of political blathering and the orchestra did its job and kept people from rambling on for too long.  Obviously, the Academy learned its lesson from the Soderbergh Oscars and that guy who wouldn’t shut up about his octopus.

That said, from the start, it was obvious that The Slap and preventing another incident was on everyone’s mind.  As opposed to last year’s Oscars, the entire ceremony felt tightly controlled.  Jimmy Kimmel kept his jokes light and only poked fun at people who didn’t show for the ceremony, like James Cameron and Tom Cruise.  Amongst the presenters, there was a definite lack of comedians or, really, anyone who might threaten to go off script and say something controversial.  The show was carefully constructed to keep anything shocking from happening and, as a result, it was a bit dull.  For all the drama and controversy that surrounded the Slap, it was probably one of the few truly spontaneous moments that we’ve seen on the Oscars.  Certainly, more people talked about the Slap last year than are going to be talking the ceremony this year.

This year was safe and boring, though it was never as downright dull as the Soderbergh Oscars.  Most of the victories felt inevitable.  I guess the biggest upset was Jamie Lee Curtis winning Best Supporting Actress over Angela Bassett.  (Though I appreciated that Curtis epitomized everything that normal people hate about the IRS, I was rooting for Kerry Condon.)  There was a brief moment of excitement when it seemed like All Quiet On The Western Front might upset Everything Everywhere All At Once but that ended up as soon as All Quiet lost the Adapted Screenplay Oscar to Women Talking.

As far as the speeches go, Ke Huy Quan won the evening by giving a genuine, heartfelt acceptance speech.  The Daniels got to give three acceptance speeches and they both seemed to get just a little bit more impressed with themselves with each speech.  (A lot of people are going to have their knives out when the Daniels get around to making their third film.)  EEAAO‘s editor went on for a bit too long, which is actually kind of a funny thing for an editor to do.  Michelle Yeoh’s speech was classy and should be used as a guide who ever wonders what to say when accepting an award.

I was kind of dreading the prospect of Jimmy Kimmel hosting but I thought he did a good job.  Other than throwing in a few heavy-handed political jabs towards the end, Kimmel struck the right tone for the show.  Jimmy certainly seemed to have a better handle on things than Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes, and Regina Hall did last year.  Of course, unlike those three, Kimmel didn’t have to deal with any nominees walking on stage and striking a presenter.

As far as the musical performances go, the performance of RRR‘s nominated song was a lot of fun and I also thought Lady Gaga did a wonderful job with her song.  The other performances didn’t do much for me, though none of them were particularly bad.  They were just kind of safe.  The fact that EEAAO got a nomination for that song should have been everyone’s first clue that the Academy was going to love the movie.

The ceremony this year was controlled and boring and, most importantly, it’s now over.  Now, we can start talking about what’s going to win in 2024!

Here Are Your Oscar Winners


Best Picture — Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Director — The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Actor — Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Actress — Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor — Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress — Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Adapted Screenplay — Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay — Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Animated Feature Film — Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best International Film — All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Documentary Feature Film — Nalvany

Best Live Action Short — An Irish Goodbye

Best Animated Short — The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse

Best Documentary Short — The Elephant Whisperers

Best Original Score — All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Original Song — RRR

Best Cinematography — All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Costume Design — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Editing — Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — The Whale

Best Production Design — All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Sound — Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects — Avatar: The Way of Water